MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Australian Dollar(CME) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	12	12	12	19	20	21	22	23	23	23	23
Closed Higher	5	8	5	13	8	10	10	13	12	14	14
Exceeded High	4	7	5	12	7	8	10	12	11	13	9
Scenario Percentage	80%	88%	100%	92%	88%	80%	100%	92%	92%	93%	64%
Avg Max Increase	4.80%	5.20%	6.72%	4.46%	2.65%	3.05%	3.24%	4.40%	4.57%	3.94%	1.71%
Max Increase	5.69%	13.48%	15.16%	12.59%	5.02%	5.82%	6.44%	11.04%	9.75%	8.12%	4.11%
Avg Days To Max Increase	14	21	20	18	15	18	19	18	14	11	9
Avg Max Decline	-0.33%	-1.85%	-0.76%	-0.71%	-1.13%	-1.38%	-1.92%	-1.27%	-1.10%	-0.70%	-0.45%
Max Decline	-0.84%	-5.28%	-1.76%	-4.00%	-3.41%	-4.51%	-10.20%	-3.23%	-3.12%	-2.43%	-1.25%
Avg Days to Max Decline	3	11	4	5	13	8	14	7	9	3	3
2009 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	12	12	12	19	20	21	22	23	23	23	23
Closed Lower	7	4	7	6	12	11	12	10	11	9	9
Penetrated Low	4	3	4	6	10	6	10	7	7	7	4
Scenario Percentage	57%	75%	57%	100%	83%	55%	83%	70%	64%	78%	44%
Avg Max Decline	4.50%	6.26%	4.91%	4.13%	2.63%	4.67%	5.65%	8.29%	6.97%	2.53%	7.14%
Max Decline	11.65%	8.78%	10.14%	10.10%	6.18%	11.65%	16.33%	29.41%	24.23%	5.75%	18.64%
Avg Days To Max Decline	10	19	14	21	15	12	16	24	23	16	10
Avg Max Increase	-2.62%	-0.58%	-0.35%	-1.38%	-1.41%	-1.01%	-1.26%	-1.09%	-1.48%	-1.31%	-0.92%
Max Increase	-6.58%	-0.74%	-1.53%	-2.41%	-4.71%	-2.36%	-5.96%	-3.09%	-3.42%	-2.10%	-2.60%
Avg Days to Max Increase	9	5	7	12	11	10	9	11	7	8	7
2009 Contract Condition	Yes
Action	Yes
High	71.10	66.76	69.41	72.05	79.02	81.12	82.80	83.99	87.94	92.82	93.82
Low	62.64	62.33	62.24	68.62	72.05	76.96	76.15	80.77	81.74	85.00	88.82
Close/Last	62.64	63.49	68.62	72.05	78.84	79.75	82.62	83.59	87.74	89.69	91.30