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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Australian Dollar(CME) as of Jul 17, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   27 27 27 32 33 35 38 38 38 38 38
Closed Higher   17 14 15 14 21 18 23 16 23 20 16
Exceeded High   12 12 12 9 19 16 20 15 19 15 10
Scenario Percentage   71% 86% 80% 64% 90% 89% 87% 94% 83% 75% 63%
Avg Max Increase   3.89% 3.86% 3.06% 3.61% 5.09% 4.63% 4.38% 3.10% 3.81% 2.66% 1.78%
Max Increase   7.94% 8.30% 6.67% 5.86% 14.85% 15.44% 13.38% 8.56% 9.66% 5.75% 2.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 13 14 14 18 16 17 13 17 11 9
Avg Max Decline   -0.80% -0.77% -0.97% -0.27% -1.33% -0.89% -0.88% -0.93% -1.30% -1.46% -0.79%
Max Decline   -2.13% -3.83% -3.36% -1.09% -5.29% -2.41% -4.12% -3.37% -4.89% -2.99% -2.28%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 10 9 7 10 5 5 8 8 13 2
2025 Contract Condition         Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes    
Action         Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   27 27 27 32 33 35 38 38 38 38 38
Closed Lower   10 13 12 18 12 17 15 22 15 18 22
Penetrated Low   8 10 7 12 10 12 14 15 9 15 11
Scenario Percentage   80% 77% 58% 67% 83% 71% 93% 68% 60% 83% 50%
Avg Max Decline   2.78% 3.30% 3.01% 4.22% 5.18% 4.10% 4.66% 2.82% 4.80% 4.52% 2.95%
Max Decline   7.59% 8.26% 5.98% 17.94% 15.64% 10.49% 11.67% 6.32% 11.68% 15.72% 7.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 22 9 13 21 15 21 17 15 12 10
Avg Max Increase   -1.66% -1.85% -1.42% -1.60% -1.15% -0.74% -1.43% -1.27% -1.18% -0.87% -0.64%
Max Increase   -4.37% -4.75% -3.74% -6.67% -2.51% -1.87% -2.95% -4.92% -2.41% -2.48% -2.93%
Avg Days to Max Increase   14 20 9 8 11 14 9 10 11 8 4
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes   Yes         Yes  
Action   Yes Yes Yes   Yes            
High 69.26 69.19 66.67 64.82 63.21 64.13 64.01 64.59 65.50 65.95 66.03  
Low 66.22 65.57 64.55 61.97 61.56 61.38 62.29 59.31 63.70 63.83 64.61  
Close/Last 69.09 65.72 65.26 61.97 62.26 62.06 62.59 64.15 64.55 65.90 64.94  

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