MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Australian Dollar(CME) as of Dec 27, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		26	26	26	31	32	34	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Higher		17	13	14	14	21	17	23	15	22	20	15
Exceeded High		12	11	12	9	19	15	20	14	18	15	10
Scenario Percentage		71%	85%	86%	64%	90%	88%	87%	93%	82%	75%	67%
Avg Max Increase		3.89%	3.86%	3.06%	3.61%	5.09%	4.75%	4.38%	3.17%	3.90%	2.67%	1.80%
Max Increase		7.94%	8.30%	6.67%	5.86%	14.85%	15.44%	13.38%	8.56%	9.66%	5.75%	2.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	11	14	14	18	16	17	13	16	11	10
Avg Max Decline		-0.80%	-0.74%	-0.97%	-0.27%	-1.33%	-0.79%	-0.88%	-0.93%	-1.10%	-1.46%	-0.79%
Max Decline		-2.13%	-3.83%	-3.36%	-1.09%	-5.29%	-2.34%	-4.12%	-3.37%	-4.56%	-2.99%	-2.28%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	10	9	7	10	4	5	8	6	13	2
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					No	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		26	26	26	31	32	34	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Lower		9	13	12	17	11	17	14	22	15	17	22
Penetrated Low		8	10	7	11	9	12	14	15	9	15	11
Scenario Percentage		89%	77%	58%	65%	82%	71%	100%	68%	60%	88%	50%
Avg Max Decline		2.78%	3.30%	3.01%	4.40%	5.52%	4.10%	4.66%	2.82%	4.80%	4.45%	3.01%
Max Decline		7.59%	8.26%	5.98%	17.94%	15.64%	10.49%	11.67%	6.32%	11.68%	15.72%	7.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	22	9	13	21	15	21	17	15	13	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.66%	-1.85%	-1.42%	-1.73%	-0.99%	-0.74%	-1.43%	-1.27%	-1.18%	-1.25%	-0.64%
Max Increase		-4.37%	-4.75%	-3.74%	-6.67%	-1.79%	-1.87%	-2.95%	-4.92%	-2.41%	-6.02%	-2.93%
Avg Days to Max Increase		14	20	9	9	11	14	9	10	11	9	4
2023 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action						Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes
High	69.45	65.83	68.68	69.64	71.99	72.12	68.30	68.36	68.50	69.15	69.10	67.34
Low	64.18	62.41	63.45	66.99	67.52	67.47	66.04	66.10	64.85	65.10	66.14	63.71
Close/Last	64.36	64.52	68.68	68.71	71.10	67.80	67.24	66.54	65.19	66.78	67.29	64.78