MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Australian Dollar(CME) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		24	24	24	29	30	32	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Higher		15	12	12	13	20	16	23	14	21	18	15
Exceeded High		11	10	10	8	18	14	20	13	18	14	10
Scenario Percentage		73%	83%	83%	62%	90%	88%	87%	93%	86%	78%	67%
Avg Max Increase		3.52%	3.76%	3.12%	3.89%	5.07%	4.93%	4.38%	3.30%	3.90%	2.67%	1.75%
Max Increase		6.89%	8.30%	6.67%	5.86%	14.85%	15.44%	13.38%	8.56%	9.66%	5.75%	2.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	10	16	16	19	17	17	14	16	11	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.72%	-0.57%	-0.80%	-0.28%	-1.33%	-0.83%	-0.88%	-0.96%	-1.10%	-1.27%	-0.79%
Max Decline		-2.13%	-3.83%	-3.36%	-1.09%	-5.29%	-2.34%	-4.12%	-3.37%	-4.56%	-2.74%	-2.28%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	10	8	10	4	5	8	6	11	2
2021 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		No		Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		24	24	24	29	30	32	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Lower		9	12	12	16	10	16	12	21	14	17	20
Penetrated Low		8	9	7	11	8	11	12	15	8	14	9
Scenario Percentage		89%	75%	58%	69%	80%	69%	100%	71%	57%	82%	45%
Avg Max Decline		2.78%	3.45%	3.01%	4.40%	5.88%	4.15%	4.93%	2.82%	4.99%	4.48%	2.97%
Max Decline		7.59%	8.26%	5.98%	17.94%	15.64%	10.49%	11.67%	6.32%	11.68%	15.72%	7.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	22	9	13	22	14	20	17	15	11	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.66%	-1.75%	-1.42%	-1.73%	-1.03%	-0.64%	-1.21%	-1.27%	-1.33%	-0.91%	-0.59%
Max Increase		-4.37%	-4.75%	-3.74%	-6.67%	-1.79%	-1.73%	-2.27%	-4.92%	-2.41%	-2.48%	-2.93%
Avg Days to Max Increase		14	17	9	9	13	11	10	10	12	9	3
2021 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	74.04	72.38	74.09	77.46	78.26	80.08	78.53	78.22	78.94	77.79	76.02	74.28
Low	70.30	70.25	70.12	73.65	76.03	75.77	75.68	75.37	76.80	74.79	72.91	71.07
Close/Last	71.66	70.38	73.66	77.07	76.48	77.12	76.03	77.09	77.17	74.98	73.36	73.21