MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Australian Dollar(CME) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		22	22	22	27	28	30	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher		14	11	10	13	19	16	21	12	20	17	14
Exceeded High		10	9	9	8	18	14	18	12	17	13	9
Scenario Percentage		71%	82%	90%	62%	95%	88%	86%	100%	85%	76%	64%
Avg Max Increase		3.67%	3.49%	3.04%	3.89%	5.07%	4.93%	4.27%	2.86%	3.70%	2.64%	1.96%
Max Increase		6.89%	8.30%	6.67%	5.86%	14.85%	15.44%	13.38%	6.14%	9.66%	5.75%	2.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	11	15	16	19	17	18	12	16	12	11
Avg Max Decline		-0.63%	-0.63%	-0.70%	-0.28%	-1.33%	-0.83%	-0.83%	-1.03%	-1.15%	-1.47%	-0.83%
Max Decline		-2.13%	-3.83%	-3.36%	-1.09%	-5.29%	-2.34%	-4.12%	-3.37%	-4.56%	-2.99%	-2.28%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	10	8	8	10	4	5	9	7	14	3
2019 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes
Action			Yes		No		Yes			Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		22	22	22	27	28	30	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower		8	11	12	14	9	14	12	21	13	16	19
Penetrated Low		7	8	7	9	7	10	12	15	7	13	9
Scenario Percentage		88%	73%	58%	64%	78%	71%	100%	71%	54%	81%	47%
Avg Max Decline		3.12%	3.71%	3.01%	3.26%	4.49%	4.48%	4.93%	2.82%	4.96%	4.75%	3.16%
Max Decline		7.59%	8.26%	5.98%	11.67%	8.85%	10.49%	11.67%	6.32%	11.68%	15.72%	7.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	21	9	11	23	15	20	17	14	12	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.86%	-1.50%	-1.42%	-1.48%	-0.92%	-0.67%	-1.21%	-1.27%	-1.33%	-0.88%	-0.59%
Max Increase		-4.37%	-4.75%	-3.74%	-6.67%	-1.57%	-1.73%	-2.27%	-4.92%	-2.41%	-2.48%	-2.93%
Avg Days to Max Increase		16	16	9	8	13	12	10	10	13	9	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	73.27	72.68	73.70	74.25	73.05	72.74	71.90	72.26	70.79	70.41	70.94	68.78
Low	71.37	70.94	72.28	70.46	69.66	70.85	70.31	70.17	68.88	68.49	68.43	66.85
Close/Last	72.61	71.14	73.43	70.71	72.88	71.14	71.22	70.74	69.61	70.36	68.51	67.31