MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Australian Dollar(CME) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		21	21	21	26	27	29	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Higher		14	10	10	12	19	15	21	12	19	17	14
Exceeded High		10	8	9	8	18	13	18	12	16	13	9
Scenario Percentage		71%	80%	90%	67%	95%	87%	86%	100%	84%	76%	64%
Avg Max Increase		3.67%	3.78%	3.04%	3.89%	5.07%	5.20%	4.27%	2.86%	3.88%	2.64%	1.96%
Max Increase		6.89%	8.30%	6.67%	5.86%	14.85%	15.44%	13.38%	6.14%	9.66%	5.75%	2.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	11	15	16	19	17	18	12	15	12	11
Avg Max Decline		-0.63%	-0.77%	-0.70%	-0.28%	-1.33%	-0.85%	-0.83%	-1.03%	-1.12%	-1.47%	-0.83%
Max Decline		-2.13%	-3.83%	-3.36%	-1.09%	-5.29%	-2.34%	-4.12%	-3.37%	-4.56%	-2.99%	-2.28%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	11	8	8	10	4	5	9	6	14	3
2018 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	No				Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		21	21	21	26	27	29	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Lower		7	11	11	14	8	14	11	20	13	15	18
Penetrated Low		6	8	6	9	6	10	11	14	7	13	9
Scenario Percentage		86%	73%	55%	64%	75%	71%	100%	70%	54%	87%	50%
Avg Max Decline		3.48%	3.71%	3.27%	3.26%	5.01%	4.48%	5.09%	2.90%	4.96%	4.68%	3.16%
Max Decline		7.59%	8.26%	5.98%	11.67%	8.85%	10.49%	11.67%	6.32%	11.68%	15.72%	7.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	21	10	11	22	15	21	16	14	13	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.44%	-1.50%	-1.74%	-1.48%	-0.81%	-0.67%	-1.31%	-1.23%	-1.33%	-1.32%	-0.59%
Max Increase		-2.00%	-4.75%	-3.74%	-6.67%	-1.53%	-1.73%	-2.27%	-4.92%	-2.41%	-6.02%	-2.93%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	16	11	8	8	12	11	8	13	11	3
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
High	80.46	78.63	77.04	78.10	81.22	80.39	79.05	78.14	76.10	76.82	74.84	74.54
Low	77.95	76.40	75.30	75.01	78.12	77.80	76.52	75.32	74.20	73.23	73.13	71.76
Close/Last	78.12	76.40	75.60	78.10	80.54	77.86	76.81	75.35	75.72	73.98	74.39	71.80