MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Australian Dollar(CME) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	10	10	10	15	16	18	21	21	21	21	21
Closed Higher	6	7	4	7	10	9	14	8	10	10	12
Exceeded High	6	5	4	5	9	7	13	8	8	8	7
Scenario Percentage	100%	71%	100%	71%	90%	78%	93%	100%	80%	80%	58%
Avg Max Increase	4.11%	4.86%	3.17%	4.23%	4.45%	5.35%	4.24%	2.71%	3.28%	2.62%	1.98%
Max Increase	6.89%	8.30%	6.67%	5.30%	9.71%	9.56%	9.28%	6.14%	6.46%	5.75%	2.86%
Avg Days To Max Increase	21	13	14	16	19	20	19	12	16	13	12
Avg Max Decline	-0.39%	-0.61%	-0.67%	-0.10%	-0.89%	-0.82%	-0.75%	-0.65%	-0.70%	-0.90%	-0.63%
Max Decline	-1.77%	-3.21%	-3.03%	-0.83%	-3.25%	-1.82%	-4.12%	-1.97%	-2.00%	-1.61%	-2.16%
Avg Days to Max Decline	4	8	12	4	11	4	6	6	6	11	3
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	10	10	10	15	16	18	21	21	21	21	21
Closed Lower	4	3	6	8	6	9	7	13	11	11	9
Penetrated Low	4	3	2	5	5	6	7	10	5	9	6
Scenario Percentage	100%	100%	33%	62%	83%	67%	100%	77%	45%	82%	67%
Avg Max Decline	3.37%	3.38%	2.40%	4.54%	5.36%	5.10%	4.80%	2.53%	5.72%	3.92%	8.65%
Max Decline	7.59%	7.05%	2.66%	11.67%	8.85%	10.49%	10.19%	6.31%	11.68%	9.88%	18.56%
Avg Days To Max Decline	22	21	5	13	21	17	20	14	13	15	11
Avg Max Increase	-1.45%	-2.35%	-0.76%	-0.38%	-0.66%	-0.51%	-1.42%	-1.12%	-1.23%	-1.52%	-1.27%
Max Increase	-1.54%	-4.75%	-1.51%	-0.93%	-0.89%	-1.57%	-2.27%	-4.92%	-2.41%	-6.02%	-3.65%
Avg Days to Max Increase	17	19	2	1	6	12	11	8	12	10	6
2007 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes				No			Yes
High	76.91	78.43	78.47	79.36	78.90	80.79	83.46	83.20	85.04	88.71	86.53
Low	73.64	75.55	77.31	76.58	76.50	76.57	80.14	81.40	82.42	84.46	76.65
Close/Last	76.91	78.43	78.18	77.01	78.30	80.46	82.73	82.58	84.60	85.48	81.60