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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June Australian Dollar(CME) as of Jul 15, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   27 27 28 33 35 35 37 39 39 39 39
Closed Higher   13 8 14 21 18 19 16 24 21 24 17
Exceeded High   10 7 11 15 16 13 11 20 18 20 13
Scenario Percentage   77% 88% 79% 71% 89% 68% 69% 83% 86% 83% 76%
Avg Max Increase   3.26% 4.56% 4.77% 4.07% 3.48% 3.27% 3.44% 5.21% 4.60% 4.12% 2.00%
Max Increase   8.04% 10.62% 9.22% 7.84% 8.54% 7.74% 6.06% 15.17% 15.68% 13.56% 6.08%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 20 18 19 14 18 14 20 18 9 6
Avg Max Decline   -2.24% -1.49% -0.95% -0.81% -0.86% -1.47% -0.58% -1.53% -1.19% -0.79% -0.36%
Max Decline   -8.29% -2.20% -2.61% -1.88% -4.15% -3.97% -2.03% -5.42% -5.37% -2.30% -1.19%
Avg Days to Max Decline   18 4 7 9 8 11 6 10 6 4 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes       Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action     Yes No       Yes   Yes Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   27 27 28 33 35 35 37 39 39 39 39
Closed Lower   14 19 14 12 17 15 21 15 18 15 22
Penetrated Low   13 12 11 10 12 11 13 13 13 14 12
Scenario Percentage   93% 63% 79% 83% 71% 73% 62% 87% 72% 93% 55%
Avg Max Decline   4.93% 6.31% 4.95% 2.98% 3.62% 3.03% 4.39% 4.50% 4.03% 4.38% 2.01%
Max Decline   15.68% 27.82% 22.66% 7.62% 8.57% 6.21% 17.96% 15.67% 10.75% 10.03% 6.17%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 14 18 20 21 14 13 18 15 14 7
Avg Max Increase   -1.17% -0.86% -1.31% -1.63% -1.76% -1.45% -1.36% -1.29% -0.94% -1.30% -0.20%
Max Increase   -5.47% -2.58% -4.30% -4.38% -4.82% -3.84% -4.76% -3.13% -1.90% -3.00% -2.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 9 10 12 17 9 10 13 17 5 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes Yes Yes   Yes      
Action   Yes     Yes Yes Yes   Yes      
High 67.46 68.17 68.32 69.16 69.10 66.70 65.06 63.34 64.14 63.97 64.53 65.40
Low 66.30 65.11 63.93 66.30 65.41 64.48 61.84 61.37 60.95 61.93 59.18 63.60
Close/Last 67.03 65.74 67.79 69.16 65.77 65.25 61.93 62.21 62.03 62.54 64.07 64.44

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