MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Australian Dollar(CME) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		18	18	19	24	26	26	28	30	30	30	30
Closed Higher		7	6	10	18	14	13	11	21	17	21	11
Exceeded High		6	5	8	13	12	9	8	18	14	17	9
Scenario Percentage		86%	83%	80%	72%	86%	69%	73%	86%	82%	81%	82%
Avg Max Increase		3.95%	5.94%	5.87%	3.94%	3.29%	3.22%	3.87%	5.43%	5.11%	4.09%	1.70%
Max Increase		8.04%	10.62%	9.22%	7.04%	8.54%	7.74%	6.06%	15.17%	15.68%	13.56%	3.48%
Avg Days To Max Increase		22	22	17	19	14	18	15	21	18	9	5
Avg Max Decline		-2.88%	-1.58%	-0.61%	-0.66%	-0.89%	-1.50%	-0.37%	-1.50%	-0.91%	-0.73%	-0.35%
Max Decline		-8.29%	-2.11%	-1.95%	-1.60%	-4.15%	-3.97%	-1.05%	-5.42%	-2.35%	-1.99%	-1.19%
Avg Days to Max Decline		26	3	5	8	8	11	4	9	6	4	2
2016 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		18	18	19	24	26	26	28	30	30	30	30
Closed Lower		11	12	9	6	12	12	17	9	13	9	19
Penetrated Low		10	6	6	5	7	9	10	7	9	9	11
Scenario Percentage		91%	50%	67%	83%	58%	75%	59%	78%	69%	100%	58%
Avg Max Decline		5.65%	9.33%	6.75%	3.01%	4.30%	3.21%	3.58%	4.10%	4.49%	5.41%	2.05%
Max Decline		15.68%	27.82%	22.66%	7.62%	8.57%	6.21%	11.76%	9.22%	10.75%	10.03%	6.17%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	11	19	22	22	16	12	16	16	14	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.39%	-0.04%	-1.00%	-1.41%	-1.71%	-1.53%	-1.16%	-0.63%	-0.92%	-1.22%	-0.12%
Max Increase		-5.47%	-1.05%	-1.86%	-1.68%	-4.82%	-3.84%	-2.67%	-1.13%	-1.82%	-2.29%	-2.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	5	8	15	16	8	10	4	17	5	2
2016 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No				No			Yes	Not Yet
High	76.61	75.16	73.03	71.73	72.88	71.85	73.00	72.42	72.22	76.98	78.18	77.08
Low	74.61	71.73	70.03	68.38	69.48	69.48	70.37	67.83	69.35	70.77	74.70	71.40
Close/Last	75.85	71.86	70.32	69.31	70.61	71.67	72.36	70.24	71.03	76.50	75.87	72.13