MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Australian Dollar(CME) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		14	14	15	20	22	22	24	26	26	26	26
Closed Higher		6	5	8	14	12	12	10	18	14	19	10
Exceeded High		5	4	7	11	10	9	8	15	11	15	8
Scenario Percentage		83%	80%	88%	79%	83%	75%	80%	83%	79%	79%	80%
Avg Max Increase		4.58%	7.30%	6.11%	4.15%	3.56%	3.22%	3.87%	5.16%	5.95%	4.32%	1.77%
Max Increase		8.04%	10.62%	9.22%	7.04%	8.54%	7.74%	6.06%	15.17%	15.68%	13.56%	3.48%
Avg Days To Max Increase		24	27	16	21	16	18	15	21	19	9	6
Avg Max Decline		-2.92%	-1.82%	-0.70%	-0.61%	-1.10%	-1.50%	-0.37%	-1.53%	-0.83%	-0.65%	-0.30%
Max Decline		-8.29%	-2.11%	-1.95%	-1.58%	-4.15%	-3.97%	-1.05%	-5.42%	-1.83%	-1.99%	-1.19%
Avg Days to Max Decline		24	4	6	7	7	11	4	9	6	4	2
2012 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		No			No		Yes	Yes	No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		14	14	15	20	22	22	24	26	26	26	26
Closed Lower		8	9	7	6	10	9	14	8	12	7	16
Penetrated Low		7	4	5	5	5	6	9	6	8	7	9
Scenario Percentage		88%	44%	71%	83%	50%	67%	64%	75%	67%	100%	56%
Avg Max Decline		6.38%	13.00%	7.64%	3.01%	3.41%	3.07%	3.69%	4.61%	4.92%	4.75%	2.18%
Max Decline		15.68%	27.82%	22.66%	7.62%	7.24%	4.74%	11.76%	9.22%	10.75%	10.03%	6.17%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	15	17	22	20	16	12	18	18	13	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.59%	-0.38%	-0.83%	-1.41%	-2.24%	-1.37%	-1.08%	-0.71%	-0.95%	-1.32%	0.13%
Max Increase		-5.47%	-1.05%	-1.76%	-1.68%	-4.82%	-3.84%	-2.67%	-1.13%	-1.82%	-2.29%	-0.51%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	7	4	15	21	6	8	5	19	6	2
2012 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		No				Yes		Yes
High	102.74	105.80	105.77	104.19	104.54	103.31	100.88	105.25	107.20	106.82	104.22	103.91
Low	99.88	102.00	97.71	94.45	91.72	94.96	97.16	100.64	104.25	102.14	101.50	96.58
Close/Last	102.74	105.77	103.66	94.45	103.31	100.60	100.88	104.63	106.30	102.69	103.68	97.27