MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Australian Dollar(CME) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		12	12	13	18	20	20	22	24	24	24	24
Closed Higher		4	5	7	12	12	10	9	16	13	17	10
Exceeded High		4	4	6	10	10	7	7	14	10	14	8
Scenario Percentage		100%	80%	86%	83%	83%	70%	78%	88%	77%	82%	80%
Avg Max Increase		3.71%	7.30%	6.24%	4.01%	3.56%	3.25%	4.12%	4.92%	5.89%	4.57%	1.72%
Max Increase		5.85%	10.62%	9.22%	7.04%	8.54%	7.74%	6.06%	15.17%	15.68%	13.56%	3.48%
Avg Days To Max Increase		23	27	18	20	16	18	16	21	21	9	4
Avg Max Decline		-3.17%	-1.82%	-0.82%	-0.51%	-1.10%	-1.33%	-0.37%	-1.32%	-0.84%	-0.66%	-0.30%
Max Decline		-8.29%	-2.11%	-1.95%	-1.58%	-4.15%	-3.73%	-1.05%	-5.42%	-1.83%	-1.99%	-1.19%
Avg Days to Max Decline		24	4	6	5	7	12	4	8	6	4	2
2010 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		12	12	13	18	20	20	22	24	24	24	24
Closed Lower		8	7	6	6	8	9	13	8	11	7	14
Penetrated Low		7	3	4	5	5	6	8	6	7	7	8
Scenario Percentage		88%	43%	67%	83%	63%	67%	62%	75%	64%	100%	57%
Avg Max Decline		6.38%	13.50%	8.82%	3.01%	3.41%	3.07%	3.89%	4.61%	4.78%	4.73%	2.23%
Max Decline		15.68%	27.82%	22.66%	7.62%	7.24%	4.74%	11.76%	9.22%	10.75%	10.03%	6.17%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	19	20	22	20	16	11	18	16	13	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.59%	-0.34%	-1.03%	-1.41%	-2.24%	-1.37%	-0.88%	-0.71%	-0.87%	-1.32%	0.15%
Max Increase		-5.47%	-1.05%	-1.76%	-1.68%	-4.82%	-3.84%	-2.51%	-1.13%	-1.82%	-2.29%	-0.51%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	9	5	15	21	6	5	5	18	6	2
2010 Contract Condition							Yes	Yes				Yes
Action							Yes	Yes				Not Yet
High	80.18	81.35	82.00	86.11	90.71	91.59	91.25	91.65	89.65	91.64	93.08	92.31
Low	76.84	75.50	80.03	80.53	84.43	87.83	85.79	87.05	84.73	88.36	90.78	80.49
Close/Last	78.70	81.35	82.00	86.11	87.83	89.50	88.26	87.25	88.70	90.97	92.05	84.45