MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Australian Dollar(CME) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		24	24	25	33	33	34	36	36	36	36	37
Closed Higher		16	9	17	16	12	18	22	19	20	16	24
Exceeded High		13	8	14	14	11	15	17	15	15	12	15
Scenario Percentage		81%	89%	82%	88%	92%	83%	77%	79%	75%	75%	63%
Avg Max Increase		4.16%	3.44%	3.75%	3.21%	4.01%	4.28%	4.08%	3.55%	3.71%	2.96%	2.11%
Max Increase		12.44%	8.53%	9.04%	8.38%	10.90%	9.77%	8.20%	8.64%	9.59%	6.19%	6.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	11	15	15	16	16	17	13	19	11	8
Avg Max Decline		-0.84%	-0.45%	-0.69%	-1.83%	-0.89%	-1.19%	-1.02%	-0.88%	-1.59%	-0.47%	-0.24%
Max Decline		-3.75%	-3.04%	-4.08%	-8.21%	-2.10%	-2.89%	-2.40%	-4.07%	-4.04%	-1.04%	-1.91%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	7	6	15	4	9	8	8	10	3	2
2023 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		24	24	25	33	33	34	36	36	36	36	37
Closed Lower		8	15	8	17	21	16	14	17	16	20	13
Penetrated Low		8	10	6	15	15	12	11	14	11	11	10
Scenario Percentage		100%	67%	75%	88%	71%	75%	79%	82%	69%	55%	77%
Avg Max Decline		4.42%	2.49%	5.07%	4.72%	5.98%	4.92%	2.68%	3.06%	3.70%	3.56%	2.13%
Max Decline		11.22%	5.92%	10.36%	15.75%	28.73%	23.67%	7.61%	8.81%	6.34%	8.79%	6.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	17	16	14	17	18	16	20	15	7	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.17%	-1.30%	-1.21%	-1.09%	-1.14%	-1.39%	-1.68%	-1.81%	-1.81%	-1.02%	-0.50%
Max Increase		-2.28%	-4.56%	-2.41%	-5.49%	-2.77%	-4.38%	-4.52%	-4.96%	-5.09%	-2.54%	-2.48%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	11	11	9	9	9	13	18	10	7	2
2023 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	No				Yes
High	75.78	76.89	72.62	72.80	70.42	71.49	69.38	65.78	68.31	69.19	71.55	71.69
Low	72.24	70.73	68.38	68.58	66.97	68.55	63.87	62.11	63.06	66.50	67.06	67.02
Close/Last	75.27	71.00	71.84	69.13	70.09	68.64	64.29	64.23	68.20	68.29	70.65	67.38