MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Australian Dollar(CME) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		15	15	16	24	24	25	27	27	27	27	28
Closed Higher		12	4	11	11	10	15	18	15	14	12	19
Exceeded High		9	4	9	10	9	12	15	11	11	10	14
Scenario Percentage		75%	100%	82%	91%	90%	80%	83%	73%	79%	83%	74%
Avg Max Increase		4.39%	3.52%	3.86%	3.59%	4.81%	4.87%	4.25%	3.52%	3.81%	3.20%	1.75%
Max Increase		12.44%	4.62%	9.04%	8.38%	10.90%	9.77%	8.20%	8.64%	9.59%	6.19%	2.79%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	13	15	18	19	15	17	14	20	11	8
Avg Max Decline		-0.77%	-1.09%	-0.76%	-1.96%	-0.94%	-0.99%	-0.91%	-1.01%	-1.65%	-0.49%	-0.40%
Max Decline		-3.75%	-3.04%	-4.08%	-8.21%	-2.10%	-2.89%	-2.40%	-4.07%	-4.04%	-1.04%	-2.50%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	13	7	19	5	8	7	9	10	3	2
2014 Contract Condition							Yes	Yes				Yes
Action							Yes	No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		15	15	16	24	24	25	27	27	27	27	28
Closed Lower		3	11	5	13	14	10	9	12	13	15	9
Penetrated Low		3	8	3	11	9	7	7	9	9	8	6
Scenario Percentage		100%	73%	60%	85%	64%	70%	78%	75%	69%	53%	67%
Avg Max Decline		6.30%	2.31%	6.38%	4.93%	7.73%	6.36%	2.92%	2.94%	3.46%	3.61%	2.08%
Max Decline		11.22%	5.92%	10.36%	15.75%	28.73%	23.67%	7.61%	7.25%	6.27%	10.68%	6.75%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	14	11	15	19	18	18	18	18	7	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.27%	-1.18%	-1.69%	-1.07%	-0.75%	-0.88%	-1.47%	-1.70%	-2.01%	-0.99%	-0.24%
Max Increase		-2.19%	-4.56%	-2.41%	-5.49%	-2.73%	-1.84%	-1.99%	-4.96%	-5.09%	-2.54%	-0.96%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	6	16	8	8	4	15	18	10	5	1
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	102.14	102.90	101.36	95.70	91.53	90.91	94.16	96.61	94.54	91.08	90.49	90.65
Low	99.25	100.21	93.91	89.99	88.35	87.65	87.91	91.99	89.96	87.72	86.32	87.05
Close/Last	101.47	101.36	93.91	89.99	88.77	87.91	92.26	93.75	90.38	88.82	87.21	89.20