MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Australian Dollar(CME) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	8	8	9	17	17	18	20	20	20	20	21
Closed Higher	6	2	5	6	9	10	12	13	11	9	13
Exceeded High	6	2	3	6	8	8	11	10	9	8	10
Scenario Percentage	100%	100%	60%	100%	89%	80%	92%	77%	82%	89%	77%
Avg Max Increase	3.62%	3.00%	2.41%	2.64%	4.04%	4.42%	4.58%	3.66%	3.94%	2.94%	1.90%
Max Increase	7.72%	4.57%	5.30%	5.49%	10.05%	9.77%	8.20%	8.64%	9.59%	5.55%	2.79%
Avg Days To Max Increase	15	4	7	13	18	16	18	15	20	11	10
Avg Max Decline	-0.64%	0.33%	-0.24%	-0.83%	-0.83%	-0.75%	-0.68%	-1.05%	-1.46%	-0.43%	-0.39%
Max Decline	-3.75%	0.00%	-1.09%	-1.43%	-2.10%	-2.21%	-2.12%	-4.07%	-4.04%	-1.04%	-2.50%
Avg Days to Max Decline	8	2	4	17	6	9	5	7	10	3	3
2007 Contract Condition	Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes
Action	Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	8	8	9	17	17	18	20	20	20	20	21
Closed Lower	2	6	4	11	8	8	8	7	9	11	8
Penetrated Low	2	4	2	9	6	5	7	6	5	6	5
Scenario Percentage	100%	67%	50%	82%	75%	62%	88%	86%	56%	55%	62%
Avg Max Decline	3.83%	1.66%	8.28%	4.14%	4.63%	3.56%	2.92%	2.98%	3.93%	4.02%	3.10%
Max Decline	4.99%	2.99%	10.36%	8.62%	11.07%	6.46%	7.61%	7.25%	6.27%	10.68%	6.75%
Avg Days To Max Decline	17	12	16	16	23	19	18	19	17	9	7
Avg Max Increase	-1.90%	-1.69%	-1.68%	-1.31%	-1.04%	-0.99%	-1.47%	-1.86%	-1.45%	-1.13%	-0.25%
Max Increase	-2.19%	-4.56%	-2.41%	-5.49%	-2.73%	-1.84%	-1.99%	-4.96%	-5.09%	-2.54%	-0.96%
Avg Days to Max Increase	5	9	12	9	11	5	15	17	9	6	1
2007 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
High	75.60	77.38	74.81	76.39	76.56	76.85	77.24	78.89	79.11	79.64	79.43
Low	71.23	74.70	72.58	73.85	75.28	74.08	73.91	75.91	77.52	76.88	77.03
Close/Last	75.60	74.82	74.04	76.29	76.06	74.28	77.19	78.71	78.66	77.46	78.75