MRCI's Futures Highlight - Lean Hogs(CME)

MRCI's Futures Highlight - Lean Hogs(CME)

MRCI hopes this profile of the CME Lean Hogs futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by Commodity Research Bureau

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the CME Lean Hogs futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Lean Hogs(CME) from 1/1976 - 3/2024
Calendar Year	Monday Avg Rng	Tuesday Avg Rng	Wednesday Avg Rng	Thursday Avg Rng	Friday Avg Rng	Yearly Avg Rng
1976	1.459($583)	1.370($548)	1.395($558)	1.301($521)	1.340($536)	1.372($549)
1977	1.178($471)	1.117($447)	1.183($473)	1.089($436)	1.116($446)	1.136($455)
1978	1.519($608)	1.644($658)	1.528($611)	1.543($617)	1.327($531)	1.512($605)
1979	1.443($577)	1.469($588)	1.526($610)	1.402($561)	1.446($579)	1.457($583)
1980	1.628($651)	1.495($598)	1.382($553)	1.472($589)	1.482($593)	1.490($596)
1981	1.581($632)	1.529($612)	1.550($620)	1.434($574)	1.486($594)	1.516($606)
1982	1.625($650)	1.703($681)	1.621($648)	1.608($643)	1.456($583)	1.603($641)
1983	1.347($539)	1.278($511)	1.248($499)	1.232($493)	1.135($454)	1.247($499)
1984	1.201($480)	1.079($431)	1.030($412)	1.112($445)	1.212($485)	1.126($450)
1985	1.228($491)	1.201($480)	1.176($470)	1.070($428)	1.105($442)	1.156($462)
1986	1.431($572)	1.523($609)	1.420($568)	1.397($559)	1.272($509)	1.410($564)
1987	1.369($548)	1.322($529)	1.208($483)	1.279($512)	1.169($468)	1.269($508)
1988	1.346($538)	1.169($468)	1.212($485)	1.306($523)	1.150($460)	1.235($494)
1989	1.062($425)	0.962($385)	1.034($414)	0.900($360)	0.936($374)	0.978($391)
1990	1.357($543)	1.260($504)	1.208($483)	1.224($489)	1.142($457)	1.237($495)
1991	1.083($433)	0.996($398)	0.961($384)	1.062($425)	0.989($396)	1.017($407)
1992	0.942($377)	0.858($343)	0.847($339)	0.877($351)	0.806($322)	0.866($346)
1993	1.146($458)	1.076($430)	1.057($423)	1.011($404)	1.078($431)	1.073($429)
1994	0.972($389)	0.998($399)	0.963($385)	0.997($399)	1.080($432)	1.002($401)
1995	1.187($475)	1.047($419)	1.036($414)	1.045($418)	0.999($400)	1.061($424)
1996	1.314($526)	1.307($523)	1.295($518)	1.410($564)	1.311($524)	1.327($531)
1997	1.006($402)	1.048($419)	0.942($377)	1.054($422)	0.996($399)	1.009($404)
1998	1.332($533)	1.177($471)	1.134($454)	1.174($469)	1.154($462)	1.193($477)
1999	1.452($581)	1.399($560)	1.422($569)	1.310($524)	1.389($556)	1.394($557)
2000	1.079($432)	1.131($452)	1.063($425)	0.975($390)	1.051($420)	1.059($424)
2001	1.181($472)	1.230($492)	1.220($488)	1.057($423)	1.049($419)	1.146($458)
2002	1.380($552)	1.342($537)	1.351($541)	1.224($490)	1.114($445)	1.281($512)
2003	1.210($484)	1.226($490)	1.397($559)	1.118($447)	1.281($512)	1.248($499)
2004	1.456($583)	1.367($547)	1.351($540)	1.489($595)	1.231($493)	1.379($551)
2005	1.188($475)	1.173($469)	1.239($496)	1.139($456)	1.258($503)	1.200($480)
2006	1.082($433)	1.219($488)	1.208($483)	1.249($500)	1.133($453)	1.180($472)
2007	1.099($440)	1.127($451)	1.145($458)	1.079($432)	1.162($465)	1.123($449)
2008	1.271($509)	1.297($519)	1.337($535)	1.418($567)	1.335($534)	1.332($533)
2009	1.409($563)	1.749($699)	1.621($648)	1.595($638)	1.530($612)	1.584($634)
2010	1.379($552)	1.438($575)	1.410($564)	1.487($595)	1.353($541)	1.414($566)
2011	1.565($626)	1.620($648)	1.685($674)	1.760($704)	1.625($650)	1.653($661)
2012	1.329($532)	1.309($524)	1.538($615)	1.349($539)	1.273($509)	1.360($544)
2013	1.166($466)	1.254($502)	1.372($549)	1.224($490)	1.074($429)	1.219($487)
2014	1.829($731)	2.081($832)	2.266($907)	2.079($832)	1.934($773)	2.041($817)
2015	1.750($700)	1.904($762)	1.891($756)	1.876($751)	1.699($679)	1.826($731)
2016	1.490($596)	1.446($578)	1.540($616)	1.479($591)	1.554($621)	1.502($601)
2017	1.458($583)	1.639($656)	1.505($602)	1.532($613)	1.337($535)	1.495($598)
2018	1.910($764)	1.806($723)	1.688($675)	1.678($671)	1.657($663)	1.746($698)
2019	2.261($904)	2.308($923)	2.164($866)	2.050($820)	2.214($885)	2.200($880)
2020	2.347($939)	2.107($843)	2.032($813)	2.246($898)	2.068($827)	2.158($863)
2021	1.887($755)	1.877($751)	1.771($708)	1.997($799)	2.064($826)	1.918($767)
2022	2.477($991)	2.406($962)	2.244($897)	2.305($922)	2.203($881)	2.323($929)
2023	1.937($775)	1.969($788)	1.868($747)	2.054($822)	1.939($776)	1.953($781)
2024	1.392($557)	1.980($792)	1.512($605)	1.565($626)	1.539($616)	1.609($643)

What other characteristics do CME Lean Hogs futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Lean Hogs(CME) from 1/1976 - 3/2024
Summary Item	Monday Summary	Tuesday Summary	Wednesday Summary	Thursday Summary	Friday Summary	Yearly Summary
Range	1.424($570)	1.423($569)	1.404($562)	1.394($558)	1.350($540)	1.399($560)
Closed Up	1114(49%)	1173(47%)	1267(51%)	1224(50%)	1246(52%)	6024(50%)
Closed Dn	1131(50%)	1263(51%)	1176(47%)	1173(48%)	1121(47%)	5864(49%)
Closed Uchg	34(1%)	36(1%)	38(2%)	35(1%)	42(2%)	185(2%)
Gapped up	338(15%)	284(11%)	279(11%)	308(13%)	301(12%)	1510(13%)
Un-filled Gaps Up	136(40%)	78(27%)	94(34%)	111(36%)	107(36%)	526(35%)
Gapped Down	333(15%)	328(13%)	315(13%)	249(10%)	216(9%)	1441(12%)
Un-filled Gaps Down	127(38%)	120(37%)	103(33%)	78(31%)	82(38%)	510(35%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Lean Hogs(CME)
UNCH	>0%- <1%	+1%- <2%	+2%- <3%	+3%- <4%	+4%- <5%	+5%- <6%	+6%- <7%	+7%- <8%	+8%- <9%	+9%- <10%	+10%- <20%	>+20%
185	3218	1720	705	258	80	25	10	6	1	1	0	0
	<0%- >-1%	-1%- >-2%	-2%- >-3%	-3%- >-4%	-4%- >-5%	-5%- >-6%	-6%- >-7%	-7%- >-8%	-8%- >-9%	-9%- >-10%	-10%- >-20%	<-20%
	3159	1634	675	284	78	19	7	5	1	1	1	0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the CME Lean Hogs futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the December Lean Hogs(CME) futures contracts.

Scenario^SM Study for December Lean Hogs(CME) as of Jul 31, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		32	20	26	27	21	18	22	19	31	16	28
Exceeded High		25	15	23	17	16	14	16	16	25	12	12
Scenario Percentage		78%	75%	88%	63%	76%	78%	73%	84%	81%	75%	43%
Avg Max Increase		7.76%	10.96%	7.64%	6.18%	8.45%	6.76%	7.31%	9.79%	9.48%	10.47%	4.42%
Max Increase		34.24%	39.74%	23.60%	11.35%	30.02%	12.13%	14.77%	32.05%	21.17%	19.92%	12.68%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	21	17	15	15	13	16	18	19	13	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.90%	-1.73%	-1.57%	-1.29%	-2.76%	-1.05%	-3.73%	-3.15%	-2.79%	-2.95%	-0.80%
Max Decline		-5.66%	-5.19%	-7.83%	-3.59%	-8.24%	-4.98%	-6.72%	-13.02%	-11.48%	-7.61%	-2.12%
Avg Days to Max Decline		15	9	7	7	13	6	14	13	6	6	1
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.

Tested Month

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Tested Years

Closed Lower

Penetrated Low

Scenario Percentage

77%

76%

79%

83%

88%

74%

78%

52%

100%

75%

53%

Avg Max Decline

6.88%

7.06%

7.27%

6.18%

11.86%

11.66%

9.48%

10.32%

9.33%

8.45%

7.82%

Max Decline

19.67%

19.90%

20.49%

13.28%

31.37%

24.36%

19.67%

22.33%

18.63%

44.65%

27.50%

Avg Days To Max Decline

Avg Max Increase

-1.32%

-1.97%

-1.78%

-2.96%

-2.87%

-2.95%

-3.03%

-3.82%

-3.06%

-1.27%

-1.38%

Max Increase

-8.67%

-6.22%

-5.04%

-9.22%

-7.09%

-12.41%

-8.02%

-9.81%

-13.84%

-5.66%

-4.62%

Avg Days to Max Increase

2022 Contract Condition

Yes

Action

Yes

High

77.850

80.530

86.500

89.450

90.550

87.330

87.650

88.080

87.900

Low

72.950

76.780

79.500

82.650

84.850

80.680

81.900

80.830

86.400

Close/Last

77.480

80.230

83.050

87.400

85.280

86.780

82.880

87.850

87.730

Moore Research Center, Inc.

Login

Main Menu

MRCI Online

Free Links

Newsflash