MRCI's Futures Highlight - Lean Hogs(CME)

MRCI's Futures Highlight - Lean Hogs(CME)

MRCI hopes this profile of the CME Lean Hogs futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by barchart

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the CME Lean Hogs futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Lean Hogs(CME) from 1/1976 - 2/2025
Calendar Year	Monday Avg Rng	Tuesday Avg Rng	Wednesday Avg Rng	Thursday Avg Rng	Friday Avg Rng	Yearly Avg Rng
1976	1.459($583)	1.370($548)	1.395($558)	1.301($521)	1.340($536)	1.372($549)
1977	1.178($471)	1.117($447)	1.183($473)	1.089($436)	1.116($446)	1.136($455)
1978	1.519($608)	1.644($658)	1.528($611)	1.543($617)	1.327($531)	1.512($605)
1979	1.443($577)	1.469($588)	1.526($610)	1.402($561)	1.446($579)	1.457($583)
1980	1.628($651)	1.495($598)	1.382($553)	1.472($589)	1.482($593)	1.490($596)
1981	1.581($632)	1.529($612)	1.550($620)	1.434($574)	1.486($594)	1.516($606)
1982	1.625($650)	1.703($681)	1.621($648)	1.608($643)	1.456($583)	1.603($641)
1983	1.347($539)	1.278($511)	1.248($499)	1.232($493)	1.135($454)	1.247($499)
1984	1.201($480)	1.079($431)	1.030($412)	1.112($445)	1.212($485)	1.126($450)
1985	1.228($491)	1.201($480)	1.176($470)	1.070($428)	1.105($442)	1.156($462)
1986	1.431($572)	1.523($609)	1.420($568)	1.397($559)	1.272($509)	1.410($564)
1987	1.369($548)	1.322($529)	1.208($483)	1.279($512)	1.169($468)	1.269($508)
1988	1.346($538)	1.169($468)	1.212($485)	1.306($523)	1.150($460)	1.235($494)
1989	1.062($425)	0.962($385)	1.034($414)	0.900($360)	0.936($374)	0.978($391)
1990	1.357($543)	1.260($504)	1.208($483)	1.224($489)	1.142($457)	1.237($495)
1991	1.083($433)	0.996($398)	0.961($384)	1.062($425)	0.989($396)	1.017($407)
1992	0.942($377)	0.858($343)	0.847($339)	0.877($351)	0.806($322)	0.866($346)
1993	1.146($458)	1.076($430)	1.057($423)	1.011($404)	1.078($431)	1.073($429)
1994	0.972($389)	0.998($399)	0.963($385)	0.997($399)	1.080($432)	1.002($401)
1995	1.187($475)	1.047($419)	1.036($414)	1.045($418)	0.999($400)	1.061($424)
1996	1.314($526)	1.307($523)	1.295($518)	1.410($564)	1.311($524)	1.327($531)
1997	1.006($402)	1.048($419)	0.942($377)	1.054($422)	0.996($399)	1.009($404)
1998	1.332($533)	1.177($471)	1.134($454)	1.174($469)	1.154($462)	1.193($477)
1999	1.452($581)	1.399($560)	1.422($569)	1.310($524)	1.389($556)	1.394($557)
2000	1.079($432)	1.131($452)	1.063($425)	0.975($390)	1.051($420)	1.059($424)
2001	1.181($472)	1.230($492)	1.220($488)	1.057($423)	1.049($419)	1.146($458)
2002	1.380($552)	1.342($537)	1.351($541)	1.224($490)	1.114($445)	1.281($512)
2003	1.210($484)	1.226($490)	1.397($559)	1.118($447)	1.281($512)	1.248($499)
2004	1.456($583)	1.367($547)	1.351($540)	1.489($595)	1.231($493)	1.379($551)
2005	1.188($475)	1.173($469)	1.239($496)	1.139($456)	1.258($503)	1.200($480)
2006	1.082($433)	1.219($488)	1.208($483)	1.249($500)	1.133($453)	1.180($472)
2007	1.099($440)	1.127($451)	1.145($458)	1.079($432)	1.162($465)	1.123($449)
2008	1.271($509)	1.297($519)	1.337($535)	1.418($567)	1.335($534)	1.332($533)
2009	1.409($563)	1.749($699)	1.621($648)	1.595($638)	1.530($612)	1.584($634)
2010	1.379($552)	1.438($575)	1.410($564)	1.487($595)	1.353($541)	1.414($566)
2011	1.565($626)	1.620($648)	1.685($674)	1.760($704)	1.625($650)	1.653($661)
2012	1.329($532)	1.309($524)	1.538($615)	1.349($539)	1.273($509)	1.360($544)
2013	1.166($466)	1.254($502)	1.372($549)	1.224($490)	1.074($429)	1.219($487)
2014	1.829($731)	2.081($832)	2.266($907)	2.079($832)	1.934($773)	2.041($817)
2015	1.750($700)	1.904($762)	1.891($756)	1.876($751)	1.699($679)	1.826($731)
2016	1.490($596)	1.446($578)	1.540($616)	1.479($591)	1.554($621)	1.502($601)
2017	1.458($583)	1.639($656)	1.505($602)	1.532($613)	1.337($535)	1.495($598)
2018	1.910($764)	1.806($723)	1.688($675)	1.678($671)	1.657($663)	1.746($698)
2019	2.261($904)	2.308($923)	2.164($866)	2.050($820)	2.214($885)	2.200($880)
2020	2.347($939)	2.107($843)	2.032($813)	2.246($898)	2.068($827)	2.158($863)
2021	1.887($755)	1.877($751)	1.771($708)	1.997($799)	2.064($826)	1.918($767)
2022	2.477($991)	2.406($962)	2.244($897)	2.305($922)	2.203($881)	2.323($929)
2023	1.937($775)	1.969($788)	1.868($747)	2.054($822)	1.939($776)	1.953($781)
2024	1.621($649)	1.732($693)	1.607($643)	1.641($656)	1.509($604)	1.623($649)
2025	1.507($603)	1.300($520)	1.569($627)	1.818($727)	1.497($599)	1.545($618)

What other characteristics do CME Lean Hogs futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Lean Hogs(CME) from 1/1976 - 2/2025
Summary Item	Monday Summary	Tuesday Summary	Wednesday Summary	Thursday Summary	Friday Summary	Yearly Summary
Range	1.428($571)	1.426($570)	1.408($563)	1.400($560)	1.353($541)	1.403($561)
Closed Up	1136(49%)	1199(48%)	1292(51%)	1242(50%)	1272(52%)	6141(50%)
Closed Dn	1153(50%)	1284(51%)	1195(47%)	1199(48%)	1143(47%)	5974(49%)
Closed Uchg	34(1%)	37(1%)	39(2%)	37(1%)	42(2%)	189(2%)
Gapped up	341(15%)	293(12%)	286(11%)	311(13%)	303(12%)	1534(12%)
Un-filled Gaps Up	137(40%)	81(28%)	96(34%)	112(36%)	109(36%)	535(35%)
Gapped Down	336(14%)	328(13%)	319(13%)	260(10%)	221(9%)	1464(12%)
Un-filled Gaps Down	129(38%)	120(37%)	105(33%)	81(31%)	82(37%)	517(35%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Lean Hogs(CME)
UNCH	>0%- <1%	+1%- <2%	+2%- <3%	+3%- <4%	+4%- <5%	+5%- <6%	+6%- <7%	+7%- <8%	+8%- <9%	+9%- <10%	+10%- <20%	>+20%
189	3290	1753	713	260	82	25	10	6	1	1	0	0
	<0%- >-1%	-1%- >-2%	-2%- >-3%	-3%- >-4%	-4%- >-5%	-5%- >-6%	-6%- >-7%	-7%- >-8%	-8%- >-9%	-9%- >-10%	-10%- >-20%	<-20%
	3226	1661	687	286	80	19	7	5	1	1	1	0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the CME Lean Hogs futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Lean Hog Index - Nov 29, 2024
	Period Low(Jan-Dec)		Period High(Jan-Dec)		Last Day		Average
Year	Date	Price	Date	Price	Date	Price	Price
2023	12/29/2023	65.050	07/28/2023	106.000	12/29/2023	65.050	81.391
2022	01/03/2022	72.750	08/08/2022	122.250	12/30/2022	79.450	98.150
2021	01/04/2021	61.470	06/14/2021	122.680	12/31/2021	71.850	92.859
2020	04/17/2020	44.550	10/20/2020	78.690	12/31/2020	60.620	60.354
2019	03/07/2019	51.710	08/02/2019	84.680	12/31/2019	57.730	67.414
2018	08/31/2018	45.440	06/22/2018	86.200	12/31/2018	53.050	65.027
2017	09/29/2017	54.290	07/12/2017	92.840	12/29/2017	62.230	71.440
2016	11/21/2016	47.490	06/28/2016	85.030	12/30/2016	57.470	65.087
2015	12/31/2015	52.870	05/20/2015	83.200	12/31/2015	52.870	70.407
2014	12/31/2014	78.110	07/16/2014	134.170	12/31/2014	78.110	105.190
2013	03/26/2013	74.210	06/20/2013	104.230	12/31/2013	79.750	89.713
2012	09/18/2012	67.630	06/26/2012	103.080	12/31/2012	82.390	85.424
2011	01/04/2011	69.770	08/04/2011	106.290	12/30/2011	78.720	87.536
2010	11/02/2010	55.920	05/04/2010	87.230	12/31/2010	72.160	72.701
2009	08/12/2009	45.320	05/13/2009	64.760	12/31/2009	63.730	55.303
2008	01/08/2008	46.060	08/08/2008	88.770	12/31/2008	50.650	63.946
2007	11/16/2007	44.790	06/22/2007	77.840	12/31/2007	47.030	62.824
2006	04/10/2006	50.230	06/20/2006	81.210	12/29/2006	59.100	62.806
2005	11/21/2005	55.140	05/04/2005	78.820	12/30/2005	57.260	66.846
2004	01/12/2004	49.000	12/02/2004	83.210	12/30/2004	66.140	69.879
2003	01/02/2003	41.390	06/16/2003	66.460	12/31/2003	48.530	51.946
2002	09/04/2002	25.660	06/25/2002	57.240	12/31/2002	40.460	45.210
2001	11/19/2001	41.830	06/26/2001	74.240	12/31/2001	49.570	59.195
2000	11/09/2000	46.660	06/23/2000	70.310	12/29/2000	50.940	57.593
1999	01/04/1999	19.250	08/13/1999	39.660	12/30/1999	33.750	32.204
1998	12/17/1998	9.000	06/17/1998	64.000	12/31/1998	18.750	32.397
1997	12/31/1997	34.500	07/01/1997	62.000	12/31/1997	34.500	51.787

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the December Lean Hogs(CME) futures contracts.

Scenario^SM Study for December Lean Hogs(CME) as of Jul 31, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		32	20	26	27	21	18	22	19	31	16	28
Exceeded High		25	15	23	17	16	14	16	16	25	12	12
Scenario Percentage		78%	75%	88%	63%	76%	78%	73%	84%	81%	75%	43%
Avg Max Increase		7.76%	10.96%	7.64%	6.18%	8.45%	6.76%	7.31%	9.79%	9.48%	10.47%	4.42%
Max Increase		34.24%	39.74%	23.60%	11.35%	30.02%	12.13%	14.77%	32.05%	21.17%	19.92%	12.68%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	21	17	15	15	13	16	18	19	13	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.90%	-1.73%	-1.57%	-1.29%	-2.76%	-1.05%	-3.73%	-3.15%	-2.79%	-2.95%	-0.80%
Max Decline		-5.66%	-5.19%	-7.83%	-3.59%	-8.24%	-4.98%	-6.72%	-13.02%	-11.48%	-7.61%	-2.12%
Avg Days to Max Decline		15	9	7	7	13	6	14	13	6	6	1
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.

Tested Month

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Tested Years

Closed Lower

Penetrated Low

Scenario Percentage

77%

76%

79%

83%

88%

74%

78%

52%

100%

75%

53%

Avg Max Decline

6.88%

7.06%

7.27%

6.18%

11.86%

11.66%

9.48%

10.32%

9.33%

8.45%

7.82%

Max Decline

19.67%

19.90%

20.49%

13.28%

31.37%

24.36%

19.67%

22.33%

18.63%

44.65%

27.50%

Avg Days To Max Decline

Avg Max Increase

-1.32%

-1.97%

-1.78%

-2.96%

-2.87%

-2.95%

-3.03%

-3.82%

-3.06%

-1.27%

-1.38%

Max Increase

-8.67%

-6.22%

-5.04%

-9.22%

-7.09%

-12.41%

-8.02%

-9.81%

-13.84%

-5.66%

-4.62%

Avg Days to Max Increase

2022 Contract Condition

Yes

Action

Yes

High

77.850

80.530

86.500

89.450

90.550

87.330

87.650

88.080

87.900

Low

72.950

76.780

79.500

82.650

84.850

80.680

81.900

80.830

86.400

Close/Last

77.480

80.230

83.050

87.400

85.280

86.780

82.880

87.850

87.730

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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