Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Futures Highlight - NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)

MRC Logo
MRCI's Futures Highlight - NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)

MRCI hopes this profile of the NYM NY Harbor ULSD futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by Commodity Research Bureau

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the NYM NY Harbor ULSD futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
from 1/1980 - 3/2024
Calendar
Year		 Monday
Avg Rng		 Tuesday
Avg Rng		 Wednesday
Avg Rng		 Thursday
Avg Rng		 Friday
Avg Rng		 Yearly
Avg Rng
1980 0.92($385) 0.96($402) 1.01($425) 0.94($394) 0.85($355) 0.93($393)
1981 0.85($357) 0.66($278) 0.72($303) 0.76($320) 0.68($287) 0.73($308)
1982 1.86($782) 1.68($707) 1.71($720) 1.62($680) 1.54($646) 1.68($707)
1983 1.38($579) 1.29($541) 1.25($524) 1.25($524) 1.05($441) 1.24($521)
1984 1.31($548) 1.24($520) 1.40($586) 1.35($566) 1.27($533) 1.31($551)
1985 1.40($588) 1.31($549) 1.29($542) 1.33($560) 1.17($492) 1.30($546)
1986 2.31($968) 2.06($865) 1.84($775) 2.01($845) 1.89($796) 2.02($849)
1987 1.19($500) 1.08($452) 1.22($512) 0.97($408) 0.96($403) 1.08($456)
1988 1.25($525) 1.04($436) 1.17($491) 1.13($473) 0.98($412) 1.11($467)
1989 1.39($585) 1.18($494) 1.40($589) 1.49($626) 1.31($551) 1.35($569)
1990 3.12($1309) 2.70($1133) 2.84($1191) 2.64($1110) 2.70($1133) 2.79($1173)
1991 1.99($836) 1.58($662) 2.13($896) 2.07($869) 1.39($582) 1.83($768)
1992 1.14($479) 1.19($502) 1.16($487) 1.10($461) 1.12($468) 1.14($480)
1993 1.21($506) 0.98($411) 1.04($439) 1.10($461) 1.04($438) 1.07($450)
1994 1.43($600) 1.17($490) 1.18($494) 1.19($499) 1.18($495) 1.23($515)
1995 0.95($397) 0.81($342) 0.97($407) 0.87($364) 0.94($396) 0.91($381)
1996 1.88($789) 1.62($679) 1.85($779) 1.88($788) 1.59($669) 1.76($740)
1997 1.43($601) 1.20($504) 1.34($564) 1.36($572) 1.36($570) 1.34($562)
1998 1.40($589) 1.07($448) 1.14($479) 1.21($508) 1.13($476) 1.19($499)
1999 1.25($526) 1.33($560) 1.60($672) 1.43($602) 1.49($628) 1.43($599)
2000 3.15($1324) 2.55($1073) 3.19($1339) 3.03($1273) 3.11($1305) 3.00($1261)
2001 2.42($1016) 2.09($876) 2.70($1133) 2.27($953) 2.44($1026) 2.38($1001)
2002 2.33($979) 1.94($813) 2.16($907) 2.23($937) 1.99($835) 2.13($893)
2003 3.00($1261) 2.87($1205) 3.17($1332) 3.21($1348) 3.16($1328) 3.08($1294)
2004 4.01($1685) 3.35($1408) 4.88($2051) 4.23($1775) 3.57($1499) 4.02($1687)
2005 6.34($2662) 5.35($2248) 6.13($2574) 6.26($2628) 5.64($2370) 5.94($2493)
2006 5.73($2406) 5.34($2242) 5.17($2172) 5.20($2182) 4.99($2096) 5.27($2215)
2007 5.63($2365) 5.61($2358) 5.94($2495) 5.48($2301) 4.64($1950) 5.46($2293)
2008 11.81($4961) 11.57($4861) 11.39($4782) 11.82($4965) 10.71($4497) 11.46($4812)
2009 7.27($3053) 6.66($2798) 6.74($2830) 6.30($2647) 6.74($2830) 6.74($2829)
2010 5.07($2131) 5.49($2305) 5.36($2252) 5.54($2326) 5.74($2411) 5.44($2287)
2011 7.48($3140) 7.62($3198) 7.36($3092) 8.21($3449) 7.15($3003) 7.56($3177)
2012 5.86($2460) 5.15($2163) 5.71($2400) 5.89($2474) 5.69($2391) 5.66($2377)
2013 4.89($2053) 4.82($2023) 4.87($2045) 4.93($2070) 4.95($2078) 4.89($2054)
2014 4.56($1916) 4.38($1839) 4.48($1880) 4.57($1921) 4.75($1995) 4.55($1909)
2015 5.71($2397) 5.36($2251) 5.71($2397) 5.53($2324) 5.51($2315) 5.56($2336)
2016 4.92($2067) 4.85($2038) 5.26($2208) 4.65($1955) 4.62($1939) 4.86($2041)
2017 3.71($1557) 4.01($1683) 4.08($1714) 3.75($1576) 3.86($1619) 3.89($1632)
2018 4.80($2017) 4.77($2002) 5.17($2171) 4.13($1733) 4.65($1955) 4.70($1975)
2019 4.69($1972) 4.39($1842) 4.82($2023) 4.54($1907) 4.67($1960) 4.62($1940)
2020 6.35($2668) 5.37($2257) 5.55($2330) 5.48($2301) 4.88($2051) 5.52($2319)
2021 6.41($2693) 5.55($2331) 5.71($2396) 5.79($2431) 5.69($2388) 5.82($2443)
2022 17.00($7142) 18.62($7821) 20.03($8412) 19.06($8006) 15.83($6651) 18.15($7622)
2023 9.79($4110) 9.87($4144) 10.34($4343) 9.66($4056) 9.70($4074) 9.87($4147)
2024 7.82($3284) 7.54($3165) 8.01($3363) 8.29($3480) 8.21($3449) 7.98($3350)

What other characteristics do NYM NY Harbor ULSD futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
from 1/1980 - 3/2024
Summary
Item		 Monday
Summary		 Tuesday
Summary		 Wednesday
Summary		 Thursday
Summary		 Friday
Summary		 Yearly
Summary
Range 3.91($1642) 3.74($1572) 3.99($1676) 3.88($1631) 3.70($1554) 3.85($1615)
Closed Up 961(46%) 1154(51%) 1224(54%) 1199(53%) 1096(50%) 5634(51%)
Closed Dn 1130(54%) 1124(49%) 1052(46%) 1033(46%) 1089(50%) 5428(49%)
Closed Uchg 3(0%) 7(0%) 11(0%) 11(0%) 13(1%) 45(0%)
Gapped up 260(12%) 205(9%) 245(11%) 248(11%) 205(9%) 1163(10%)
Un-filled Gaps Up 111(43%) 73(36%) 96(39%) 80(32%) 67(33%) 427(37%)
Gapped Down 287(14%) 286(13%) 255(11%) 200(9%) 149(7%) 1177(11%)
Un-filled Gaps Down 134(47%) 90(31%) 94(37%) 76(38%) 38(26%) 432(37%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)

UNCH		 >0%-
<1%		 +1%-
<2%		 +2%-
<3%		 +3%-
<4%		 +4%-
<5%		 +5%-
<6%		 +6%-
<7%		 +7%-
<8%		 +8%-
<9%		 +9%-
<10%		 +10%-
<20%
>+20%
45 2607 1563 753 369 153 87 48 23 8 8 15 0
<0%-
>-1%		 -1%-
>-2%		 -2%-
>-3%		 -3%-
>-4%		 -4%-
>-5%		 -5%-
>-6%		 -6%-
>-7%		 -7%-
>-8%		 -8%-
>-9%		 -9%-
>-10%		 -10%-
>-20%
<-20%
2587 1488 696 347 164 60 38 23 14 3 6 2

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the NYM NY Harbor ULSD futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) futures contracts.

ScenarioSM Study for January NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Aug 31, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   31 33 37 39 42 43 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Higher   16 19 24 26 20 23 27 23 26 16 19
Exceeded High   13 17 23 21 15 21 23 21 21 12 13
Scenario Percentage   81% 89% 96% 81% 75% 91% 85% 91% 81% 75% 68%
Avg Max Increase   12.15% 9.35% 10.56% 10.02% 9.67% 9.07% 11.77% 9.79% 8.22% 11.36% 16.63%
Max Increase   28.58% 23.82% 41.75% 52.14% 25.37% 24.90% 71.34% 38.14% 21.49% 26.77% 77.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 17 19 16 15 17 17 15 15 19 25
Avg Max Decline   -0.93% -2.17% -2.60% -2.03% -1.38% -2.93% -2.84% -2.65% -2.98% -1.94% -1.93%
Max Decline   -4.68% -12.55% -8.71% -10.66% -5.26% -15.39% -13.43% -13.56% -13.28% -3.38% -7.37%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 12 7 7 6 12 8 9 9 4 5
2023 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes      
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No   Not Yet      
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   31 33 37 39 42 43 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Lower   15 14 13 13 22 20 16 20 17 27 24
Penetrated Low   9 8 9 8 15 15 9 11 15 23 23
Scenario Percentage   60% 57% 69% 62% 68% 75% 56% 55% 88% 85% 96%
Avg Max Decline   11.20% 9.45% 7.83% 8.31% 8.24% 8.79% 9.14% 13.86% 11.49% 14.86% 10.39%
Max Decline   33.33% 35.60% 16.38% 20.29% 18.27% 26.81% 24.06% 40.46% 44.00% 43.61% 31.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 13 14 18 18 17 17 17 15 15 17
Avg Max Increase   -1.61% -2.08% -4.43% -3.24% -1.05% -1.91% -3.14% -1.38% -3.56% -2.60% -2.30%
Max Increase   -5.97% -5.30% -12.96% -6.82% -6.39% -7.53% -19.07% -5.36% -16.69% -8.52% -10.08%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 10 8 16 3 8 10 14 8 6 4
2023 Contract Condition               Yes        
Action               Yes        
High 228.76 249.31 276.08 314.00 322.82 356.89 398.94 362.28 380.63      
Low 198.04 222.89 246.61 261.90 286.85 308.03 343.41 310.57 304.97      
Close/Last 223.55 247.44 261.40 286.13 316.01 345.28 348.27 335.79 348.35      

Banner

Login

Main Menu

MRCI Online

Free Links

Newsflash

The world will still run for decades on fossil-fuel energy --- crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas.  Buy 'em?  Sell 'em?  When?  Just since 2008, crude oil traded at $147/barrel, collapsed to -$40.32/barrel in 2020, ran to higher than $130 in early 2022, and the traded less than half that in May!

MRCI's newest special report is complete with seasonal patterns & weekly charts: for each delivery month and several spreads against each; for product spreads; for cash & basis; and for 3/2/1 and 2/1/1 crack spreads.  Better yet, this 284-page volume presents 190 seasonal & spread strategies to anticipate throughout the next 12-months. Order your copy today! https://www.mrci.com/products/energy