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MRCI's Futures Highlight - NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)

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MRCI's Futures Highlight - NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)

MRCI hopes this profile of the NYM NY Harbor ULSD futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by Commodity Research Bureau

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the NYM NY Harbor ULSD futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
from 1/1980 - 10/2024
Calendar
Year		 Monday
Avg Rng		 Tuesday
Avg Rng		 Wednesday
Avg Rng		 Thursday
Avg Rng		 Friday
Avg Rng		 Yearly
Avg Rng
1980 0.92($385) 0.96($402) 1.01($425) 0.94($394) 0.85($355) 0.93($393)
1981 0.85($357) 0.66($278) 0.72($303) 0.76($320) 0.68($287) 0.73($308)
1982 1.86($782) 1.68($707) 1.71($720) 1.62($680) 1.54($646) 1.68($707)
1983 1.38($579) 1.29($541) 1.25($524) 1.25($524) 1.05($441) 1.24($521)
1984 1.31($548) 1.24($520) 1.40($586) 1.35($566) 1.27($533) 1.31($551)
1985 1.40($588) 1.31($549) 1.29($542) 1.33($560) 1.17($492) 1.30($546)
1986 2.31($968) 2.06($865) 1.84($775) 2.01($845) 1.89($796) 2.02($849)
1987 1.19($500) 1.08($452) 1.22($512) 0.97($408) 0.96($403) 1.08($456)
1988 1.25($525) 1.04($436) 1.17($491) 1.13($473) 0.98($412) 1.11($467)
1989 1.39($585) 1.18($494) 1.40($589) 1.49($626) 1.31($551) 1.35($569)
1990 3.12($1309) 2.70($1133) 2.84($1191) 2.64($1110) 2.70($1133) 2.79($1173)
1991 1.99($836) 1.58($662) 2.13($896) 2.07($869) 1.39($582) 1.83($768)
1992 1.14($479) 1.19($502) 1.16($487) 1.10($461) 1.12($468) 1.14($480)
1993 1.21($506) 0.98($411) 1.04($439) 1.10($461) 1.04($438) 1.07($450)
1994 1.43($600) 1.17($490) 1.18($494) 1.19($499) 1.18($495) 1.23($515)
1995 0.95($397) 0.81($342) 0.97($407) 0.87($364) 0.94($396) 0.91($381)
1996 1.88($789) 1.62($679) 1.85($779) 1.88($788) 1.59($669) 1.76($740)
1997 1.43($601) 1.20($504) 1.34($564) 1.36($572) 1.36($570) 1.34($562)
1998 1.40($589) 1.07($448) 1.14($479) 1.21($508) 1.13($476) 1.19($499)
1999 1.25($526) 1.33($560) 1.60($672) 1.43($602) 1.49($628) 1.43($599)
2000 3.15($1324) 2.55($1073) 3.19($1339) 3.03($1273) 3.11($1305) 3.00($1261)
2001 2.42($1016) 2.09($876) 2.70($1133) 2.27($953) 2.44($1026) 2.38($1001)
2002 2.33($979) 1.94($813) 2.16($907) 2.23($937) 1.99($835) 2.13($893)
2003 3.00($1261) 2.87($1205) 3.17($1332) 3.21($1348) 3.16($1328) 3.08($1294)
2004 4.01($1685) 3.35($1408) 4.88($2051) 4.23($1775) 3.57($1499) 4.02($1687)
2005 6.34($2662) 5.35($2248) 6.13($2574) 6.26($2628) 5.64($2370) 5.94($2493)
2006 5.73($2406) 5.34($2242) 5.17($2172) 5.20($2182) 4.99($2096) 5.27($2215)
2007 5.63($2365) 5.61($2358) 5.94($2495) 5.48($2301) 4.64($1950) 5.46($2293)
2008 11.81($4961) 11.57($4861) 11.39($4782) 11.82($4965) 10.71($4497) 11.46($4812)
2009 7.27($3053) 6.66($2798) 6.74($2830) 6.30($2647) 6.74($2830) 6.74($2829)
2010 5.07($2131) 5.49($2305) 5.36($2252) 5.54($2326) 5.74($2411) 5.44($2287)
2011 7.48($3140) 7.62($3198) 7.36($3092) 8.21($3449) 7.15($3003) 7.56($3177)
2012 5.86($2460) 5.15($2163) 5.71($2400) 5.89($2474) 5.69($2391) 5.66($2377)
2013 4.89($2053) 4.82($2023) 4.87($2045) 4.93($2070) 4.95($2078) 4.89($2054)
2014 4.56($1916) 4.38($1839) 4.48($1880) 4.57($1921) 4.75($1995) 4.55($1909)
2015 5.71($2397) 5.36($2251) 5.71($2397) 5.53($2324) 5.51($2315) 5.56($2336)
2016 4.92($2067) 4.85($2038) 5.26($2208) 4.65($1955) 4.62($1939) 4.86($2041)
2017 3.71($1557) 4.01($1683) 4.08($1714) 3.75($1576) 3.86($1619) 3.89($1632)
2018 4.80($2017) 4.77($2002) 5.17($2171) 4.13($1733) 4.65($1955) 4.70($1975)
2019 4.69($1972) 4.39($1842) 4.82($2023) 4.54($1907) 4.67($1960) 4.62($1940)
2020 6.35($2668) 5.37($2257) 5.55($2330) 5.48($2301) 4.88($2051) 5.52($2319)
2021 6.41($2693) 5.55($2331) 5.71($2396) 5.79($2431) 5.69($2388) 5.82($2443)
2022 17.00($7142) 18.62($7821) 20.03($8412) 19.06($8006) 15.83($6651) 18.15($7622)
2023 9.79($4110) 9.87($4144) 10.34($4343) 9.66($4056) 9.70($4074) 9.87($4147)
2024 6.79($2850) 6.92($2906) 6.74($2829) 6.72($2822) 6.70($2815) 6.77($2845)

What other characteristics do NYM NY Harbor ULSD futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
from 1/1980 - 10/2024
Summary
Item		 Monday
Summary		 Tuesday
Summary		 Wednesday
Summary		 Thursday
Summary		 Friday
Summary		 Yearly
Summary
Range 3.94($1655) 3.78($1587) 4.02($1687) 3.91($1641) 3.73($1566) 3.87($1627)
Closed Up 978(46%) 1164(50%) 1239(54%) 1217(54%) 1105(50%) 5703(51%)
Closed Dn 1139(54%) 1142(49%) 1064(46%) 1042(46%) 1108(50%) 5495(49%)
Closed Uchg 3(0%) 7(0%) 11(0%) 11(0%) 13(1%) 45(0%)
Gapped up 261(12%) 207(9%) 247(11%) 250(11%) 205(9%) 1170(10%)
Un-filled Gaps Up 111(43%) 73(35%) 96(39%) 80(32%) 67(33%) 427(36%)
Gapped Down 287(14%) 286(12%) 255(11%) 200(9%) 149(7%) 1177(10%)
Un-filled Gaps Down 134(47%) 90(31%) 94(37%) 76(38%) 38(26%) 432(37%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)

UNCH		 >0%-
<1%		 +1%-
<2%		 +2%-
<3%		 +3%-
<4%		 +4%-
<5%		 +5%-
<6%		 +6%-
<7%		 +7%-
<8%		 +8%-
<9%		 +9%-
<10%		 +10%-
<20%
>+20%
45 2647 1579 760 374 153 88 48 23 8 8 15 0
<0%-
>-1%		 -1%-
>-2%		 -2%-
>-3%		 -3%-
>-4%		 -4%-
>-5%		 -5%-
>-6%		 -6%-
>-7%		 -7%-
>-8%		 -8%-
>-9%		 -9%-
>-10%		 -10%-
>-20%
<-20%
2616 1509 708 351 165 60 38 23 14 3 6 2

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the NYM NY Harbor ULSD futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Fuel Oil: No 2 NY - Sep 6, 2024
  Period Low(Jan-Dec) Period High(Jan-Dec) Last Day Average
Year Date Price Date Price Date Price Price
2023 05/03/2023 204.40 01/23/2023 341.20 12/29/2023 244.40 267.77
2022 01/03/2022 224.50 05/16/2022 515.20 12/30/2022 336.22 357.56
2021 01/04/2021 136.40 10/28/2021 251.65 12/31/2021 221.10 192.06
2020 04/27/2020 56.20 01/03/2020 203.90 12/31/2020 139.80 119.96
2019 01/02/2019 168.70 05/16/2019 210.40 12/31/2019 200.40 191.68
2018 12/28/2018
12/31/2018		 164.30 10/03/2018 241.00 12/31/2018 164.30 206.14
2017 06/21/2017 127.00 12/29/2017 206.80 12/29/2017 206.80 158.78
2016 01/20/2016 81.70 12/28/2016 161.90 12/30/2016 161.20 128.76
2015 12/16/2015 94.70 02/23/2015 212.60 12/31/2015 98.90 154.16
2014 12/29/2014 168.00 01/31/2014 325.50 12/31/2014 172.40 269.04
2013 04/17/2013 256.21 02/08/2013 326.22 12/31/2013 308.20 291.79
2012 06/22/2012 253.87 02/23/2012
02/24/2012		 328.74 12/31/2012 304.98 302.22
2011 01/07/2011 248.25 04/08/2011 330.72 12/30/2011 290.88 294.70
2010 02/05/2010 186.50 12/23/2010 253.33 12/31/2010 248.04 213.03
2009 03/11/2009 111.93 12/31/2009 210.81 12/31/2009 210.81 165.05
2008 12/24/2008
12/26/2008		 119.20 07/03/2008 407.85 12/31/2008 140.32 284.78
2007 01/18/2007 144.32 11/26/2007 269.41 12/31/2007 265.31 203.69
2006 02/14/2006 154.00 08/02/2006 209.44 12/29/2006 158.29 180.12
2005 01/03/2005 117.40 09/01/2005 215.85 12/30/2005 172.43 162.57
2004 04/02/2004 84.05 10/21/2004 157.58 12/31/2004 121.65 111.74
2003 09/19/2003 68.98 02/28/2003 128.47 12/31/2003 90.27 84.87
2002 01/30/2002 50.49 12/27/2002 90.17 12/31/2002 86.48 68.06
2001 12/06/2001 46.91 01/02/2001 89.83 12/31/2001 54.95 71.01
2000 01/05/2000 65.95 02/04/2000 168.78 12/29/2000 90.74 87.60
1999 02/16/1999 28.42 12/21/1999 73.50 12/30/1999 70.55 49.01
1998 12/04/1998 30.08 01/29/1998 49.21 12/31/1998 33.55 39.16
1997 12/31/1997 49.06 01/06/1997 74.09 12/31/1997 49.06 56.34

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) futures contracts.

ScenarioSM Study for January NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Aug 31, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   31 33 37 39 42 43 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Higher   16 19 24 26 20 23 27 23 26 16 19
Exceeded High   13 17 23 21 15 21 23 21 21 12 13
Scenario Percentage   81% 89% 96% 81% 75% 91% 85% 91% 81% 75% 68%
Avg Max Increase   12.15% 9.35% 10.56% 10.02% 9.67% 9.07% 11.77% 9.79% 8.22% 11.36% 16.63%
Max Increase   28.58% 23.82% 41.75% 52.14% 25.37% 24.90% 71.34% 38.14% 21.49% 26.77% 77.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 17 19 16 15 17 17 15 15 19 25
Avg Max Decline   -0.93% -2.17% -2.60% -2.03% -1.38% -2.93% -2.84% -2.65% -2.98% -1.94% -1.93%
Max Decline   -4.68% -12.55% -8.71% -10.66% -5.26% -15.39% -13.43% -13.56% -13.28% -3.38% -7.37%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 12 7 7 6 12 8 9 9 4 5
2023 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes      
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No   Not Yet      
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   31 33 37 39 42 43 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Lower   15 14 13 13 22 20 16 20 17 27 24
Penetrated Low   9 8 9 8 15 15 9 11 15 23 23
Scenario Percentage   60% 57% 69% 62% 68% 75% 56% 55% 88% 85% 96%
Avg Max Decline   11.20% 9.45% 7.83% 8.31% 8.24% 8.79% 9.14% 13.86% 11.49% 14.86% 10.39%
Max Decline   33.33% 35.60% 16.38% 20.29% 18.27% 26.81% 24.06% 40.46% 44.00% 43.61% 31.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 13 14 18 18 17 17 17 15 15 17
Avg Max Increase   -1.61% -2.08% -4.43% -3.24% -1.05% -1.91% -3.14% -1.38% -3.56% -2.60% -2.30%
Max Increase   -5.97% -5.30% -12.96% -6.82% -6.39% -7.53% -19.07% -5.36% -16.69% -8.52% -10.08%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 10 8 16 3 8 10 14 8 6 4
2023 Contract Condition               Yes        
Action               Yes        
High 228.76 249.31 276.08 314.00 322.82 356.89 398.94 362.28 380.63      
Low 198.04 222.89 246.61 261.90 286.85 308.03 343.41 310.57 304.97      
Close/Last 223.55 247.44 261.40 286.13 316.01 345.28 348.27 335.79 348.35      

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