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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Crude Oil(NYM)

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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Crude Oil(NYM)

MRCI hopes this profile of the NYMEX Crude Oil futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by Commodity Research Bureau

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the NYMEX Crude Oil futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Crude Oil(NYM)
from 1/1983 - 3/2024
Calendar
Year		 Monday
Avg Rng		 Tuesday
Avg Rng		 Wednesday
Avg Rng		 Thursday
Avg Rng		 Friday
Avg Rng		 Yearly
Avg Rng
1983 0.22($223) 0.24($243) 0.25($254) 0.23($230) 0.23($234) 0.24($237)
1984 0.30($295) 0.24($238) 0.29($292) 0.30($301) 0.23($232) 0.27($271)
1985 0.40($404) 0.39($389) 0.40($404) 0.37($372) 0.33($327) 0.38($379)
1986 0.83($833) 0.73($734) 0.64($643) 0.71($708) 0.64($637) 0.71($711)
1987 0.38($378) 0.36($363) 0.37($368) 0.30($296) 0.31($312) 0.34($344)
1988 0.48($483) 0.35($355) 0.38($380) 0.38($376) 0.35($353) 0.39($388)
1989 0.47($473) 0.41($411) 0.45($447) 0.41($414) 0.40($399) 0.43($428)
1990 1.26($1264) 0.96($958) 1.19($1188) 1.02($1020) 0.96($958) 1.07($1075)
1991 0.64($642) 0.53($526) 0.72($718) 0.70($700) 0.53($527) 0.62($622)
1992 0.31($309) 0.34($341) 0.33($326) 0.32($324) 0.31($310) 0.32($322)
1993 0.41($407) 0.35($346) 0.34($340) 0.38($383) 0.34($335) 0.36($362)
1994 0.50($498) 0.38($382) 0.43($427) 0.40($402) 0.42($425) 0.43($425)
1995 0.32($321) 0.26($264) 0.33($330) 0.30($300) 0.31($313) 0.31($305)
1996 0.71($712) 0.61($608) 0.68($676) 0.63($627) 0.57($574) 0.64($639)
1997 0.53($527) 0.46($456) 0.52($520) 0.51($509) 0.51($512) 0.50($504)
1998 0.61($611) 0.47($472) 0.49($493) 0.52($523) 0.44($438) 0.51($507)
1999 0.53($530) 0.53($530) 0.64($640) 0.58($576) 0.60($596) 0.57($575)
2000 1.02($1016) 0.86($859) 1.07($1068) 1.01($1006) 0.98($978) 0.98($985)
2001 0.85($852) 0.67($674) 0.99($987) 0.86($863) 0.87($869) 0.85($849)
2002 0.93($934) 0.76($758) 0.88($878) 0.88($884) 0.80($797) 0.85($849)
2003 1.03($1033) 0.99($989) 1.10($1104) 1.07($1066) 1.04($1035) 1.05($1046)
2004 1.31($1312) 1.18($1178) 1.62($1620) 1.36($1362) 1.20($1199) 1.34($1337)
2005 1.77($1772) 1.53($1526) 1.86($1862) 1.81($1809) 1.61($1612) 1.72($1715)
2006 1.85($1848) 1.74($1742) 1.70($1697) 1.61($1608) 1.57($1570) 1.69($1689)
2007 2.01($2011) 2.19($2191) 2.21($2208) 2.19($2192) 1.80($1804) 2.08($2081)
2008 4.56($4557) 4.47($4474) 4.33($4331) 4.51($4511) 4.06($4059) 4.38($4385)
2009 2.82($2816) 2.67($2672) 2.79($2788) 2.61($2609) 2.73($2730) 2.72($2722)
2010 1.99($1986) 2.20($2204) 2.18($2176) 2.23($2226) 2.35($2349) 2.19($2191)
2011 3.04($3038) 3.08($3085) 2.99($2989) 3.34($3336) 2.95($2955) 3.08($3081)
2012 2.24($2238) 2.22($2216) 2.26($2264) 2.29($2291) 2.28($2281) 2.26($2258)
2013 1.75($1750) 1.79($1791) 1.97($1970) 1.90($1900) 1.76($1755) 1.83($1834)
2014 1.78($1777) 1.86($1860) 1.75($1753) 1.85($1850) 1.76($1755) 1.80($1799)
2015 1.99($1994) 2.06($2062) 2.25($2255) 2.04($2037) 1.98($1982) 2.07($2068)
2016 1.76($1763) 1.71($1712) 1.90($1901) 1.63($1629) 1.60($1600) 1.72($1721)
2017 1.17($1174) 1.27($1272) 1.33($1329) 1.18($1184) 1.17($1167) 1.23($1227)
2018 1.78($1782) 1.85($1849) 1.96($1962) 1.66($1664) 1.74($1739) 1.80($1799)
2019 1.75($1753) 1.64($1643) 1.81($1809) 1.70($1700) 1.67($1671) 1.71($1715)
2020 2.45($2448) 2.19($2193) 2.14($2143) 2.17($2173) 1.96($1960) 2.18($2182)
2021 2.44($2441) 2.16($2162) 2.25($2251) 2.22($2220) 2.09($2086) 2.23($2229)
2022 5.00($4999) 4.86($4855) 4.67($4666) 4.47($4472) 4.05($4051) 4.60($4601)
2023 2.52($2515) 2.55($2550) 2.64($2644) 2.58($2575) 2.44($2438) 2.55($2546)
2024 2.26($2257) 1.89($1894) 2.17($2174) 2.22($2217) 2.04($2036) 2.11($2110)

What other characteristics do NYMEX Crude Oil futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Crude Oil(NYM)
from 1/1983 - 3/2024
Summary
Item		 Monday
Summary		 Tuesday
Summary		 Wednesday
Summary		 Thursday
Summary		 Friday
Summary		 Yearly
Summary
Range 1.44($1438) 1.38($1381) 1.46($1458) 1.41($1410) 1.34($1335) 1.40($1404)
Closed Up 922(48%) 1039(49%) 1092(52%) 1110(53%) 1086(53%) 5249(51%)
Closed Dn 992(51%) 1050(50%) 997(47%) 948(46%) 932(46%) 4919(48%)
Closed Uchg 21(1%) 27(1%) 27(1%) 20(1%) 21(1%) 116(1%)
Gapped up 224(12%) 189(9%) 197(9%) 197(9%) 183(9%) 990(10%)
Un-filled Gaps Up 95(42%) 67(35%) 77(39%) 73(37%) 58(32%) 370(37%)
Gapped Down 228(12%) 199(9%) 208(10%) 168(8%) 126(6%) 929(9%)
Un-filled Gaps Down 100(44%) 71(36%) 72(35%) 54(32%) 32(25%) 329(35%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Crude Oil(NYM)

UNCH		 >0%-
<1%		 +1%-
<2%		 +2%-
<3%		 +3%-
<4%		 +4%-
<5%		 +5%-
<6%		 +6%-
<7%		 +7%-
<8%		 +8%-
<9%		 +9%-
<10%		 +10%-
<20%
>+20%
116 2358 1439 756 338 169 76 45 17 20 6 20 5
<0%-
>-1%		 -1%-
>-2%		 -2%-
>-3%		 -3%-
>-4%		 -4%-
>-5%		 -5%-
>-6%		 -6%-
>-7%		 -7%-
>-8%		 -8%-
>-9%		 -9%-
>-10%		 -10%-
>-20%
<-20%
2230 1324 643 344 188 80 35 28 15 8 19 5

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the NYMEX Crude Oil futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

West Texas Crude - Mar 10, 2023
  Period Low(Jan-Dec) Period High(Jan-Dec) Last Day Average
Year Date Price Date Price Date Price Price
2022 12/09/2022 71.05 03/08/2022 123.64 12/30/2022 80.26 94.79
2021 01/04/2021 47.47 10/26/2021 85.64 12/31/2021 75.33 68.18
2020 04/20/2020 -36.98 01/06/2020 63.27 12/31/2020 48.35 39.18
2019 01/02/2019 46.31 04/23/2019 66.23 12/31/2019 61.14 56.99
2018 12/27/2018 44.48 06/27/2018 77.41 12/31/2018 45.15 65.02
2017 06/21/2017 42.48 12/29/2017 60.46 12/29/2017 60.46 50.82
2016 02/11/2016 26.19 12/28/2016 54.01 12/30/2016 53.75 43.33
2015 12/21/2015 34.55 06/10/2015 61.36 12/31/2015 37.13 48.66
2014 12/31/2014 53.45 06/20/2014 107.95 12/31/2014 53.45 93.17
2013 04/17/2013 86.68 09/06/2013 110.62 12/31/2013 98.17 98.02
2012 06/28/2012 77.69 02/24/2012 109.77 12/31/2012 91.82 94.14
2011 10/04/2011 75.67 04/29/2011 113.93 12/30/2011 98.83 95.11
2010 05/24/2010 66.88 12/23/2010
12/27/2010		 92.21 12/31/2010 89.84 79.53
2009 02/12/2009 33.98 10/21/2009 81.37 12/31/2009 79.36 61.99
2008 12/22/2008 30.81 07/11/2008 145.66 12/31/2008 44.60 99.66
2007 01/18/2007
01/19/2007		 50.49 11/20/2007 98.83 12/31/2007 96.01 72.40
2006 11/16/2006 56.27 07/14/2006 77.03 12/29/2006 61.06 66.11
2005 01/03/2005 42.13 08/30/2005 69.82 12/30/2005 61.04 56.64
2004 02/06/2004 32.48 10/25/2004 55.23 12/30/2004 43.46 41.49
2003 04/29/2003 25.23 03/12/2003 37.83 12/31/2003 32.54 31.10
2002 01/17/2002 17.98 12/27/2002 32.73 12/31/2002 31.23 26.15
2001 11/15/2001 17.48 05/10/2001 32.29 12/31/2001 19.78 25.90
2000 04/11/2000 23.84 09/20/2000
09/21/2000		 37.00 12/29/2000 25.76 30.15
1999 02/16/1999
02/17/1999		 11.36 12/29/1999 26.94 12/31/1999 26.92 19.33
1998 12/21/1998 10.80 01/29/1998
01/30/1998		 17.80 12/31/1998 11.66 14.44
1997 12/31/1997 17.53 01/08/1997 26.61 12/31/1997 17.63 20.61
1996 01/26/1996 17.26 12/20/1996 26.56 12/31/1996 25.91 21.95
1995 07/21/1995 16.67 05/01/1995 20.71 12/29/1995 19.47 18.38
1994 02/17/1994 13.86 08/01/1994 20.87 12/30/1994 17.78 17.16
1993 12/20/1993 13.79 03/09/1993 21.43 12/31/1993 14.13 18.43
1992 01/09/1992 17.85 06/25/1992 22.89 12/31/1992 19.48 20.57
1991 02/22/1991 17.85 01/16/1991 32.00 12/31/1991 19.10 21.52
1990 06/20/1990 15.30 10/09/1990
10/11/1990		 40.40 12/31/1990 28.45 24.50
1989 01/31/1989 17.05 04/20/1989 24.65 12/29/1989 21.80 19.61
1988 10/05/1988 12.60 04/26/1988 18.60 12/30/1988 17.25 15.95

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The world will still run for decades on fossil-fuel energy --- crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas.  Buy 'em?  Sell 'em?  When?  Just since 2008, crude oil traded at $147/barrel, collapsed to -$40.32/barrel in 2020, ran to higher than $130 in early 2022, and the traded less than half that in May!

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