MRCI's Futures Highlight - Heating Oil(NYM)

MRCI's Futures Highlight - Heating Oil(NYM)

MRCI hopes this profile of the NYM Heating Oil futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by barchart

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the NYM Heating Oil futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) from 1/1980 - 2/2025
Calendar Year	Monday Avg Rng	Tuesday Avg Rng	Wednesday Avg Rng	Thursday Avg Rng	Friday Avg Rng	Yearly Avg Rng
1980	0.92($385)	0.96($402)	1.01($425)	0.94($394)	0.85($355)	0.93($393)
1981	0.85($357)	0.66($278)	0.72($303)	0.76($320)	0.68($287)	0.73($308)
1982	1.86($782)	1.68($707)	1.71($720)	1.62($680)	1.54($646)	1.68($707)
1983	1.38($579)	1.29($541)	1.25($524)	1.25($524)	1.05($441)	1.24($521)
1984	1.31($548)	1.24($520)	1.40($586)	1.35($566)	1.27($533)	1.31($551)
1985	1.40($588)	1.31($549)	1.29($542)	1.33($560)	1.17($492)	1.30($546)
1986	2.31($968)	2.06($865)	1.84($775)	2.01($845)	1.89($796)	2.02($849)
1987	1.19($500)	1.08($452)	1.22($512)	0.97($408)	0.96($403)	1.08($456)
1988	1.25($525)	1.04($436)	1.17($491)	1.13($473)	0.98($412)	1.11($467)
1989	1.39($585)	1.18($494)	1.40($589)	1.49($626)	1.31($551)	1.35($569)
1990	3.12($1309)	2.70($1133)	2.84($1191)	2.64($1110)	2.70($1133)	2.79($1173)
1991	1.99($836)	1.58($662)	2.13($896)	2.07($869)	1.39($582)	1.83($768)
1992	1.14($479)	1.19($502)	1.16($487)	1.10($461)	1.12($468)	1.14($480)
1993	1.21($506)	0.98($411)	1.04($439)	1.10($461)	1.04($438)	1.07($450)
1994	1.43($600)	1.17($490)	1.18($494)	1.19($499)	1.18($495)	1.23($515)
1995	0.95($397)	0.81($342)	0.97($407)	0.87($364)	0.94($396)	0.91($381)
1996	1.88($789)	1.62($679)	1.85($779)	1.88($788)	1.59($669)	1.76($740)
1997	1.43($601)	1.20($504)	1.34($564)	1.36($572)	1.36($570)	1.34($562)
1998	1.40($589)	1.07($448)	1.14($479)	1.21($508)	1.13($476)	1.19($499)
1999	1.25($526)	1.33($560)	1.60($672)	1.43($602)	1.49($628)	1.43($599)
2000	3.15($1324)	2.55($1073)	3.19($1339)	3.03($1273)	3.11($1305)	3.00($1261)
2001	2.42($1016)	2.09($876)	2.70($1133)	2.27($953)	2.44($1026)	2.38($1001)
2002	2.33($979)	1.94($813)	2.16($907)	2.23($937)	1.99($835)	2.13($893)
2003	3.00($1261)	2.87($1205)	3.17($1332)	3.21($1348)	3.16($1328)	3.08($1294)
2004	4.01($1685)	3.35($1408)	4.88($2051)	4.23($1775)	3.57($1499)	4.02($1687)
2005	6.34($2662)	5.35($2248)	6.13($2574)	6.26($2628)	5.64($2370)	5.94($2493)
2006	5.73($2406)	5.34($2242)	5.17($2172)	5.20($2182)	4.99($2096)	5.27($2215)
2007	5.63($2365)	5.61($2358)	5.94($2495)	5.48($2301)	4.64($1950)	5.46($2293)
2008	11.81($4961)	11.57($4861)	11.39($4782)	11.82($4965)	10.71($4497)	11.46($4812)
2009	7.27($3053)	6.66($2798)	6.74($2830)	6.30($2647)	6.74($2830)	6.74($2829)
2010	5.07($2131)	5.49($2305)	5.36($2252)	5.54($2326)	5.74($2411)	5.44($2287)
2011	7.48($3140)	7.62($3198)	7.36($3092)	8.21($3449)	7.15($3003)	7.56($3177)
2012	5.86($2460)	5.15($2163)	5.71($2400)	5.89($2474)	5.69($2391)	5.66($2377)
2013	4.89($2053)	4.82($2023)	4.87($2045)	4.93($2070)	4.95($2078)	4.89($2054)
2014	4.56($1916)	4.38($1839)	4.48($1880)	4.57($1921)	4.75($1995)	4.55($1909)
2015	5.71($2397)	5.36($2251)	5.71($2397)	5.53($2324)	5.51($2315)	5.56($2336)
2016	4.92($2067)	4.85($2038)	5.26($2208)	4.65($1955)	4.62($1939)	4.86($2041)
2017	3.71($1557)	4.01($1683)	4.08($1714)	3.75($1576)	3.86($1619)	3.89($1632)
2018	4.80($2017)	4.77($2002)	5.17($2171)	4.13($1733)	4.65($1955)	4.70($1975)
2019	4.69($1972)	4.39($1842)	4.82($2023)	4.54($1907)	4.67($1960)	4.62($1940)
2020	6.35($2668)	5.37($2257)	5.55($2330)	5.48($2301)	4.88($2051)	5.52($2319)
2021	6.41($2693)	5.55($2331)	5.71($2396)	5.79($2431)	5.69($2388)	5.82($2443)
2022	17.00($7142)	18.62($7821)	20.03($8412)	19.06($8006)	15.83($6651)	18.15($7622)
2023	9.79($4110)	9.87($4144)	10.34($4343)	9.66($4056)	9.70($4074)	9.87($4147)
2024	6.84($2871)	6.60($2771)	6.49($2724)	6.43($2702)	6.39($2682)	6.55($2749)
2025	6.97($2926)	7.14($2997)	7.14($2998)	5.79($2433)	6.16($2589)	6.59($2768)

What other characteristics do NYM Heating Oil futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) from 1/1980 - 2/2025
Summary Item	Monday Summary	Tuesday Summary	Wednesday Summary	Thursday Summary	Friday Summary	Yearly Summary
Range	3.97($1666)	3.80($1596)	4.03($1694)	3.92($1647)	3.75($1573)	3.89($1635)
Closed Up	987(46%)	1174(50%)	1246(53%)	1229(54%)	1114(50%)	5750(51%)
Closed Dn	1148(54%)	1152(49%)	1075(46%)	1049(46%)	1119(50%)	5543(49%)
Closed Uchg	3(0%)	7(0%)	11(0%)	11(0%)	13(1%)	45(0%)
Gapped up	262(12%)	207(9%)	247(11%)	250(11%)	205(9%)	1171(10%)
Un-filled Gaps Up	111(42%)	73(35%)	96(39%)	80(32%)	67(33%)	427(36%)
Gapped Down	289(14%)	287(12%)	255(11%)	200(9%)	149(7%)	1180(10%)
Un-filled Gaps Down	134(46%)	90(31%)	94(37%)	76(38%)	38(26%)	432(37%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
UNCH	>0%- <1%	+1%- <2%	+2%- <3%	+3%- <4%	+4%- <5%	+5%- <6%	+6%- <7%	+7%- <8%	+8%- <9%	+9%- <10%	+10%- <20%	>+20%
45	2668	1593	769	376	153	89	48	23	8	8	15	0
	<0%- >-1%	-1%- >-2%	-2%- >-3%	-3%- >-4%	-4%- >-5%	-5%- >-6%	-6%- >-7%	-7%- >-8%	-8%- >-9%	-9%- >-10%	-10%- >-20%	<-20%
	2641	1522	716	352	166	60	38	23	14	3	6	2

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the NYM Heating Oil futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Fuel Oil: No 2 NY - Sep 6, 2024
	Period Low(Jan-Dec)		Period High(Jan-Dec)		Last Day		Average
Year	Date	Price	Date	Price	Date	Price	Price
2023	05/03/2023	204.40	01/23/2023	341.20	12/29/2023	244.40	267.77
2022	01/03/2022	224.50	05/16/2022	515.20	12/30/2022	336.22	357.56
2021	01/04/2021	136.40	10/28/2021	251.65	12/31/2021	221.10	192.06
2020	04/27/2020	56.20	01/03/2020	203.90	12/31/2020	139.80	119.96
2019	01/02/2019	168.70	05/16/2019	210.40	12/31/2019	200.40	191.68
2018	12/28/2018 12/31/2018	164.30	10/03/2018	241.00	12/31/2018	164.30	206.14
2017	06/21/2017	127.00	12/29/2017	206.80	12/29/2017	206.80	158.78
2016	01/20/2016	81.70	12/28/2016	161.90	12/30/2016	161.20	128.76
2015	12/16/2015	94.70	02/23/2015	212.60	12/31/2015	98.90	154.16
2014	12/29/2014	168.00	01/31/2014	325.50	12/31/2014	172.40	269.04
2013	04/17/2013	256.21	02/08/2013	326.22	12/31/2013	308.20	291.79
2012	06/22/2012	253.87	02/23/2012 02/24/2012	328.74	12/31/2012	304.98	302.22
2011	01/07/2011	248.25	04/08/2011	330.72	12/30/2011	290.88	294.70
2010	02/05/2010	186.50	12/23/2010	253.33	12/31/2010	248.04	213.03
2009	03/11/2009	111.93	12/31/2009	210.81	12/31/2009	210.81	165.05
2008	12/24/2008 12/26/2008	119.20	07/03/2008	407.85	12/31/2008	140.32	284.78
2007	01/18/2007	144.32	11/26/2007	269.41	12/31/2007	265.31	203.69
2006	02/14/2006	154.00	08/02/2006	209.44	12/29/2006	158.29	180.12
2005	01/03/2005	117.40	09/01/2005	215.85	12/30/2005	172.43	162.57
2004	04/02/2004	84.05	10/21/2004	157.58	12/31/2004	121.65	111.74
2003	09/19/2003	68.98	02/28/2003	128.47	12/31/2003	90.27	84.87
2002	01/30/2002	50.49	12/27/2002	90.17	12/31/2002	86.48	68.06
2001	12/06/2001	46.91	01/02/2001	89.83	12/31/2001	54.95	71.01
2000	01/05/2000	65.95	02/04/2000	168.78	12/29/2000	90.74	87.60
1999	02/16/1999	28.42	12/21/1999	73.50	12/30/1999	70.55	49.01
1998	12/04/1998	30.08	01/29/1998	49.21	12/31/1998	33.55	39.16
1997	12/31/1997	49.06	01/06/1997	74.09	12/31/1997	49.06	56.34

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the December Heating Oil(NYM) futures contracts.

Scenario^SM Study for January NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Sep 27, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		33	35	39	41	44	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		17	20	25	27	21	25	28	25	27	17	19
Exceeded High		14	18	24	22	16	22	24	22	21	13	13
Scenario Percentage		82%	90%	96%	81%	76%	88%	86%	88%	78%	76%	68%
Avg Max Increase		13.20%	10.13%	11.15%	10.76%	10.04%	9.71%	11.82%	9.82%	8.22%	10.96%	16.78%
Max Increase		28.58%	23.82%	41.75%	52.14%	25.37%	24.90%	71.34%	38.14%	21.49%	26.77%	77.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	18	19	16	15	16	17	15	15	18	25
Avg Max Decline		-0.89%	-2.04%	-2.48%	-2.05%	-1.20%	-2.90%	-2.75%	-2.53%	-2.98%	-1.97%	-1.93%
Max Decline		-4.68%	-12.55%	-8.71%	-10.66%	-5.26%	-15.39%	-13.43%	-13.56%	-13.28%	-3.38%	-7.37%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	12	7	8	6	12	8	8	9	4	5
2025 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes			Yes
Action		Yes		Yes			Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.

Tested Month

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Tested Years

Closed Lower

Penetrated Low

Scenario Percentage

63%

60%

71%

64%

65%

75%

59%

55%

83%

86%

96%

Avg Max Decline

11.54%

9.63%

8.33%

8.37%

8.24%

8.79%

9.50%

13.86%

11.49%

14.82%

10.81%

Max Decline

33.33%

35.60%

16.38%

20.29%

18.27%

26.81%

24.06%

40.46%

44.00%

43.61%

31.02%

Avg Days To Max Decline

Avg Max Increase

-1.32%

-2.22%

-4.40%

-2.92%

-1.05%

-1.91%

-4.16%

-1.38%

-3.56%

-2.66%

-2.18%

Max Increase

-5.97%

-5.30%

-12.96%

-6.82%

-6.39%

-7.53%

-19.07%

-5.36%

-16.69%

-8.52%

-10.08%

Avg Days to Max Increase

2025 Contract Condition

Yes

Action

Yes

High

255.00

255.52

257.99

264.62

272.28

254.98

260.06

265.38

248.42

232.13

Low

235.99

235.89

242.85

247.17

252.13

243.61

234.73

238.08

227.66

208.46

Close/Last

238.69

251.35

249.22

259.00

255.31

244.73

255.20

245.77

230.84

216.76

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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