MRCI's Futures Highlight

MRCI's Futures Highlight - Copper(CMX)

MRCI's Futures Highlight - Copper(CMX)

MRCI hopes this profile of the CMX Copper futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by barchart

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the CMX Copper futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Copper(CMX) from 1/1976 - 5/2024
Calendar Year	Monday Avg Rng	Tuesday Avg Rng	Wednesday Avg Rng	Thursday Avg Rng	Friday Avg Rng	Yearly Avg Rng
1976	1.21($303)	1.30($325)	1.18($295)	1.24($309)	1.06($266)	1.20($300)
1977	1.01($253)	0.98($244)	1.10($275)	0.98($245)	1.04($260)	1.02($256)
1978	0.92($229)	0.89($221)	1.10($275)	0.91($227)	0.89($223)	0.94($235)
1979	2.44($611)	2.77($692)	2.45($612)	2.38($596)	2.44($609)	2.50($624)
1980	3.23($807)	2.96($739)	3.08($769)	3.09($772)	3.19($797)	3.11($777)
1981	1.66($415)	1.41($352)	1.40($351)	1.48($371)	1.39($348)	1.47($367)
1982	1.65($413)	1.56($390)	1.55($388)	1.46($364)	1.50($375)	1.54($386)
1983	1.47($368)	1.17($293)	1.13($282)	1.25($313)	1.21($302)	1.24($311)
1984	1.10($275)	1.06($264)	1.00($250)	1.07($266)	1.14($286)	1.07($268)
1985	1.04($261)	0.99($247)	1.02($255)	0.97($242)	0.85($214)	0.98($244)
1986	0.80($200)	0.82($204)	0.67($167)	0.63($158)	0.71($179)	0.73($182)
1987	2.00($500)	1.95($488)	1.85($462)	1.67($417)	1.66($415)	1.83($456)
1988	3.36($840)	3.67($918)	3.70($924)	3.36($841)	3.32($830)	3.49($872)
1989	3.04($759)	1.93($482)	2.10($524)	1.75($436)	2.37($593)	2.22($556)
1990	2.73($683)	2.91($727)	3.06($765)	2.58($645)	2.88($720)	2.83($708)
1991	1.54($385)	1.68($420)	1.55($388)	1.54($384)	1.47($368)	1.56($390)
1992	1.24($309)	1.12($280)	1.15($287)	1.28($320)	1.19($298)	1.19($299)
1993	1.24($309)	1.46($365)	1.30($324)	1.45($363)	1.58($395)	1.40($351)
1994	2.04($509)	2.13($533)	2.27($568)	1.82($455)	1.92($480)	2.04($509)
1995	2.10($525)	2.43($607)	2.68($671)	2.64($661)	2.18($546)	2.42($604)
1996	2.32($579)	2.48($619)	2.40($601)	2.43($608)	2.76($690)	2.48($619)
1997	2.12($531)	2.48($620)	2.28($571)	2.25($562)	2.24($561)	2.28($570)
1998	1.66($416)	1.63($406)	1.76($440)	1.67($416)	1.66($414)	1.68($419)
1999	1.30($325)	1.51($377)	1.63($408)	1.45($363)	1.55($388)	1.49($373)
2000	1.31($328)	1.41($352)	1.30($325)	1.27($319)	1.31($326)	1.32($330)
2001	1.09($273)	1.26($315)	1.22($306)	1.16($291)	1.21($302)	1.19($298)
2002	1.20($300)	1.21($302)	1.28($320)	1.25($312)	1.26($316)	1.24($310)
2003	1.57($393)	1.42($356)	1.33($332)	1.59($399)	1.43($358)	1.47($367)
2004	3.18($795)	3.23($806)	4.15($1038)	3.22($805)	3.39($847)	3.44($860)
2005	3.33($833)	3.56($889)	3.63($907)	3.63($907)	3.44($860)	3.52($880)
2006	11.22($2806)	10.71($2677)	10.34($2584)	12.21($3052)	10.57($2642)	11.00($2750)
2007	9.75($2437)	9.80($2449)	9.65($2413)	10.84($2710)	9.23($2308)	9.86($2464)
2008	12.70($3175)	12.29($3071)	12.00($3000)	12.63($3157)	11.64($2911)	12.25($3061)
2009	9.31($2327)	9.37($2342)	9.26($2315)	8.67($2167)	8.99($2248)	9.12($2280)
2010	9.04($2260)	10.03($2507)	9.53($2383)	9.57($2392)	9.11($2279)	9.47($2367)
2011	11.61($2902)	10.66($2666)	12.38($3095)	11.43($2856)	10.83($2706)	11.38($2844)
2012	7.50($1875)	7.28($1821)	7.11($1777)	7.09($1772)	7.98($1995)	7.39($1848)
2013	5.82($1455)	5.90($1475)	6.58($1646)	6.27($1567)	6.03($1508)	6.12($1531)
2014	4.98($1245)	4.81($1203)	4.84($1211)	4.54($1135)	4.57($1144)	4.75($1187)
2015	5.88($1470)	6.47($1618)	5.37($1342)	5.72($1431)	5.72($1430)	5.83($1459)
2016	4.67($1168)	5.17($1293)	4.84($1209)	4.53($1133)	4.75($1188)	4.80($1199)
2017	5.03($1257)	5.70($1424)	4.82($1206)	5.32($1330)	5.19($1299)	5.21($1303)
2018	5.35($1338)	6.91($1727)	6.30($1575)	6.24($1561)	5.71($1427)	6.11($1528)
2019	4.20($1049)	4.15($1037)	4.21($1053)	4.28($1070)	4.81($1201)	4.33($1082)
2020	7.09($1772)	6.21($1553)	6.37($1593)	6.46($1616)	7.01($1753)	6.62($1654)
2021	10.52($2630)	10.06($2516)	10.57($2644)	11.01($2752)	11.02($2754)	10.63($2659)
2022	11.33($2832)	11.25($2813)	10.79($2698)	11.61($2902)	11.25($2812)	11.24($2811)
2023	7.87($1967)	8.10($2024)	8.01($2002)	8.23($2057)	7.78($1944)	8.00($1999)
2024	8.71($2178)	8.43($2107)	10.04($2511)	8.22($2054)	8.73($2182)	8.83($2208)

What other characteristics do CMX Copper futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Copper(CMX) from 1/1976 - 5/2024
Summary Item	Monday Summary	Tuesday Summary	Wednesday Summary	Thursday Summary	Friday Summary	Yearly Summary
Range	4.15($1037)	4.21($1052)	4.21($1053)	4.21($1053)	4.16($1040)	4.19($1047)
Closed Up	1052(46%)	1216(49%)	1285(51%)	1221(50%)	1262(52%)	6036(50%)
Closed Dn	1211(53%)	1240(50%)	1182(47%)	1207(49%)	1107(46%)	5947(49%)
Closed Uchg	33(1%)	43(2%)	38(2%)	29(1%)	45(2%)	188(2%)
Gapped up	256(11%)	287(11%)	305(12%)	266(11%)	265(11%)	1379(11%)
Un-filled Gaps Up	94(37%)	114(40%)	126(41%)	89(33%)	113(43%)	536(39%)
Gapped Down	329(14%)	301(12%)	254(10%)	276(11%)	249(10%)	1409(12%)
Un-filled Gaps Down	146(44%)	120(40%)	87(34%)	95(34%)	84(34%)	532(38%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Copper(CMX)
UNCH	>0%- <1%	+1%- <2%	+2%- <3%	+3%- <4%	+4%- <5%	+5%- <6%	+6%- <7%	+7%- <8%	+8%- <9%	+9%- <10%	+10%- <20%	>+20%
188	3294	1641	666	254	107	39	19	7	6	1	2	0
	<0%- >-1%	-1%- >-2%	-2%- >-3%	-3%- >-4%	-4%- >-5%	-5%- >-6%	-6%- >-7%	-7%- >-8%	-8%- >-9%	-9%- >-10%	-10%- >-20%	<-20%
	3328	1607	600	237	85	46	23	15	1	2	3	0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the CMX Copper futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Copper: High Grade/Scrap #2 wire - Jan 13, 2023
	Period Low(Jan-Dec)		Period High(Jan-Dec)		Last Day		Average
Year	Date	Price	Date	Price	Date	Price	Price
2022	07/14/2022	321.05	03/04/2022	492.90	12/30/2022	380.55	400.28
2021	02/02/2021	353.90	05/11/2021	477.85	12/31/2021	445.50	424.99
2020	03/23/2020	211.95	12/18/2020	362.85	12/31/2020	351.40	280.60
2019	09/03/2019	251.25	04/17/2019	297.55	12/31/2019	279.40	272.14
2018	08/15/2018	255.70	06/08/2018	329.30	12/31/2018	262.80	292.26
2017	01/03/2017	248.10	12/28/2017	328.60	12/29/2017	327.95	280.71
2016	01/15/2016	193.95	12/05/2016	268.90	12/30/2016	249.75	219.96
2015	11/23/2015	201.95	05/12/2015	295.05	12/31/2015	212.55	250.39
2014	12/26/2014	283.55	01/02/2014	343.15	12/31/2014	283.85	311.73
2013	06/24/2013	302.60	02/01/2013	377.55	12/31/2013	344.15	333.79
2012	06/08/2012	328.35	02/09/2012	397.45	12/31/2012	364.10	361.22
2011	10/20/2011	305.45	02/14/2011	462.30	12/30/2011	343.15	399.94
2010	06/08/2010	277.25	12/31/2010	443.95	12/31/2010	443.95	343.40
2009	01/22/2009	138.10	12/31/2009	332.75	12/31/2009	332.75	236.94
2008	12/24/2008	124.75	07/02/2008	407.75	12/31/2008	139.50	312.50
2007	02/05/2007	240.45	05/03/2007	377.20	12/31/2007	303.05	322.85
2006	01/20/2006	213.00	05/23/2006	407.55	12/29/2006	285.40	309.67
2005	01/04/2005	139.50	12/27/2005	228.00	12/30/2005	216.15	168.48
2004	01/07/2004	106.25	12/28/2004	154.25	12/30/2004	148.70	129.28
2003	04/03/2003	70.90	12/31/2003	104.30	12/31/2003	104.30	81.09
2002	01/02/2002	65.30	06/04/2002	78.35	12/31/2002	69.70	71.64
2001	11/07/2001	60.40	01/18/2001	86.70	12/31/2001	65.30	72.52
2000	04/17/2000	74.20	09/12/2000	92.85	12/29/2000	84.65	83.93
1999	02/22/1999 03/15/1999 03/16/1999 03/18/1999 03/19/1999	61.00	09/29/1999	88.00	12/30/1999	85.25	72.23
1998	12/11/1998 12/14/1998 12/17/1998 12/18/1998 12/21/1998 12/22/1998 12/23/1998 12/24/1998 12/28/1998	65.00	04/15/1998	86.00	12/31/1998	66.00	75.03
1997	12/26/1997 12/29/1997 12/30/1997 12/31/1997	77.00	06/11/1997 06/16/1997 06/18/1997 06/19/1997	122.00	12/31/1997	77.00	103.48
1996	07/15/1996 09/12/1996 09/16/1996 09/23/1996	87.00	05/08/1996 05/13/1996	130.00	12/31/1996	103.00	105.95
1995	10/18/1995	121.00	01/19/1995 01/24/1995	149.00	12/29/1995	126.00	136.30
1994	01/07/1994	84.50	12/01/1994 12/02/1994 12/15/1994 12/16/1994 12/28/1994 12/29/1994 12/30/1994	143.00	12/30/1994	143.00	111.58
1993	11/16/1993 11/17/1993 11/18/1993 11/29/1993	79.00	01/08/1993	110.50	12/30/1993	86.00	91.45
1992	01/14/1992	97.44	07/16/1992	120.00	12/31/1992	105.50	107.22
1991	05/31/1991	100.25	01/02/1991	122.00	12/31/1991	101.25	108.44
1990	01/30/1990	99.12	09/12/1990	138.65	12/31/1990	120.00	121.70
1989	12/11/1989	102.75	01/17/1989	163.00	12/29/1989	109.00	129.33
1988	02/26/1988	93.50	12/08/1988 12/09/1988	168.00	12/30/1988	156.75	118.77

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the July Copper(CMX) futures contracts.

Scenario^SM Study for July Copper(CMX) as of Feb 03, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	24	20	24	25	23	24	26	23	20	23
Exceeded High		18	14	15	20	24	22	21	15	18	16	20
Scenario Percentage		90%	58%	75%	83%	96%	96%	88%	58%	78%	80%	87%
Avg Max Increase		7.73%	12.94%	10.67%	9.94%	9.60%	9.99%	10.52%	13.54%	10.28%	10.71%	6.23%
Max Increase		25.67%	28.89%	19.96%	39.30%	42.72%	27.18%	44.71%	64.86%	25.45%	22.92%	12.00%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	19	22	17	14	16	15	14	14	16	15
Avg Max Decline		-2.06%	-1.76%	-2.24%	-2.60%	-1.82%	-3.08%	-2.66%	-3.40%	-2.34%	-3.28%	-1.41%
Max Decline		-7.15%	-7.34%	-5.52%	-9.72%	-8.78%	-10.04%	-10.51%	-7.75%	-16.01%	-12.21%	-5.47%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	8	14	10	9	8	11	8	6	8	3
2023 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.

Tested Month

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Tested Years

Closed Lower

Penetrated Low

Scenario Percentage

56%

76%

72%

76%

65%

59%

71%

68%

82%

68%

50%

Avg Max Decline

11.95%

8.73%

8.11%

9.49%

7.10%

8.96%

8.86%

6.43%

9.29%

10.91%

6.19%

Max Decline

49.51%

45.42%

29.97%

22.26%

16.97%

21.82%

32.42%

12.83%

18.89%

26.78%

15.20%

Avg Days To Max Decline

Avg Max Increase

-1.51%

-1.96%

-1.72%

-2.14%

-0.64%

-1.98%

-1.97%

-4.87%

-2.77%

-1.74%

-0.09%

Max Increase

-7.90%

-5.53%

-6.74%

-8.61%

-4.01%

-5.83%

-6.44%

-15.97%

-11.15%

-8.17%

-1.49%

Avg Days to Max Increase

2023 Contract Condition

Yes

Action

Yes

High

362.75

372.45

365.75

354.50

392.00

394.20

435.15

422.15

Low

317.30

345.65

322.80

329.70

336.60

373.15

372.45

405.60

Close/Last

359.30

351.70

337.20

334.25

373.35

381.60

423.70

407.65

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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