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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Soybean Oil(CBOT)

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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Soybean Oil(CBOT)

MRCI hopes this profile of the CBOT Soybean Oil futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by Commodity Research Bureau

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the CBOT Soybean Oil futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Soybean Oil(CBOT)
from 1/1976 - 5/2022
Calendar
Year
Monday
Avg Rng
Tuesday
Avg Rng
Wednesday
Avg Rng
Thursday
Avg Rng
Friday
Avg Rng
Yearly
Avg Rng
1976 0.64($387) 0.60($360) 0.58($351) 0.63($378) 0.57($340) 0.60($363)
1977 0.78($470) 0.69($417) 0.78($467) 0.74($445) 0.76($454) 0.75($450)
1978 0.69($416) 0.65($391) 0.71($424) 0.65($389) 0.60($362) 0.66($396)
1979 0.55($332) 0.58($350) 0.55($329) 0.51($304) 0.52($310) 0.54($325)
1980 0.59($353) 0.52($311) 0.52($310) 0.53($320) 0.49($295) 0.53($318)
1981 0.48($287) 0.41($244) 0.39($231) 0.44($266) 0.40($241) 0.42($254)
1982 0.31($186) 0.26($155) 0.26($156) 0.28($171) 0.27($162) 0.28($166)
1983 0.59($357) 0.52($310) 0.54($323) 0.59($356) 0.60($361) 0.57($341)
1984 0.80($479) 0.78($466) 0.72($430) 0.73($440) 0.76($456) 0.76($454)
1985 0.55($330) 0.53($319) 0.50($300) 0.55($330) 0.58($346) 0.54($325)
1986 0.36($215) 0.33($201) 0.34($207) 0.38($228) 0.32($194) 0.35($209)
1987 0.36($214) 0.29($175) 0.31($188) 0.28($166) 0.29($175) 0.31($183)
1988 0.64($383) 0.64($384) 0.61($368) 0.63($376) 0.58($350) 0.62($372)
1989 0.45($271) 0.36($216) 0.36($218) 0.32($194) 0.34($206) 0.37($220)
1990 0.43($258) 0.35($212) 0.39($235) 0.37($223) 0.36($218) 0.38($229)
1991 0.43($258) 0.38($225) 0.37($223) 0.39($234) 0.38($227) 0.39($233)
1992 0.34($205) 0.30($178) 0.31($186) 0.28($171) 0.31($188) 0.31($185)
1993 0.42($254) 0.38($226) 0.37($224) 0.45($271) 0.37($222) 0.40($239)
1994 0.55($328) 0.52($314) 0.51($304) 0.48($289) 0.49($293) 0.51($305)
1995 0.54($322) 0.41($246) 0.38($226) 0.40($238) 0.41($245) 0.42($254)
1996 0.45($272) 0.39($234) 0.36($214) 0.43($258) 0.39($237) 0.40($243)
1997 0.46($275) 0.39($233) 0.39($235) 0.40($239) 0.39($233) 0.40($243)
1998 0.42($254) 0.43($256) 0.39($233) 0.45($272) 0.42($251) 0.42($253)
1999 0.40($240) 0.42($253) 0.39($231) 0.38($227) 0.35($211) 0.39($232)
2000 0.32($194) 0.28($166) 0.28($166) 0.31($185) 0.30($179) 0.30($177)
2001 0.30($181) 0.31($183) 0.29($173) 0.31($187) 0.32($191) 0.31($183)
2002 0.42($253) 0.38($226) 0.35($210) 0.36($215) 0.37($219) 0.37($224)
2003 0.47($282) 0.40($241) 0.43($260) 0.44($266) 0.44($266) 0.44($263)
2004 0.75($451) 0.73($437) 0.76($456) 0.74($443) 0.68($405) 0.73($439)
2005 0.59($351) 0.56($338) 0.49($296) 0.52($315) 0.57($344) 0.55($328)
2006 0.57($344) 0.53($316) 0.45($272) 0.51($309) 0.51($305) 0.51($308)
2007 0.68($409) 0.71($423) 0.69($413) 0.65($392) 0.76($453) 0.70($418)
2008 2.07($1241) 1.98($1190) 1.80($1079) 1.81($1086) 1.79($1071) 1.89($1132)
2009 1.22($731) 1.08($648) 0.98($590) 0.98($589) 0.99($592) 1.05($629)
2010 0.88($530) 0.82($489) 0.82($490) 0.81($487) 0.89($531) 0.84($505)
2011 1.06($638) 1.16($694) 1.06($636) 1.28($771) 1.17($699) 1.15($689)
2012 1.08($647) 0.94($566) 0.92($549) 0.96($576) 0.96($579) 0.97($583)
2013 0.81($487) 0.72($429) 0.69($417) 0.77($461) 0.76($457) 0.75($450)
2014 0.75($448) 0.74($441) 0.75($450) 0.66($394) 0.77($465) 0.73($440)
2015 0.75($452) 0.69($417) 0.69($414) 0.65($389) 0.70($419) 0.70($418)
2016 0.70($421) 0.68($406) 0.70($419) 0.72($431) 0.68($405) 0.69($416)
2017 0.59($354) 0.62($370) 0.57($339) 0.62($371) 0.61($367) 0.60($360)
2018 0.40($241) 0.47($280) 0.44($267) 0.42($253) 0.46($275) 0.44($263)
2019 0.49($296) 0.51($303) 0.44($262) 0.50($303) 0.47($281) 0.48($289)
2020 0.83($496) 0.74($441) 0.75($452) 0.74($441) 0.73($437) 0.75($453)
2021 1.89($1135) 1.95($1172) 1.96($1178) 1.98($1187) 1.87($1119) 1.93($1159)
2022 2.49($1491) 2.20($1318) 2.34($1406) 2.14($1286) 2.61($1566) 2.35($1410)

What other characteristics do CBOT Soybean Oil futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Soybean Oil(CBOT)
from 1/1976 - 5/2022
Summary
Item
Monday
Summary
Tuesday
Summary
Wednesday
Summary
Thursday
Summary
Friday
Summary
Yearly
Summary
Range 0.66($398) 0.62($375) 0.61($366) 0.62($374) 0.62($372) 0.63($377)
Closed Up 992(45%) 1159(49%) 1215(51%) 1107(47%) 1114(48%) 5587(48%)
Closed Dn 1188(54%) 1185(50%) 1138(47%) 1208(51%) 1174(50%) 5893(51%)
Closed Uchg 26(1%) 43(2%) 43(2%) 37(2%) 38(2%) 187(2%)
Gapped up 244(11%) 239(10%) 238(10%) 219(9%) 205(9%) 1145(10%)
Un-filled Gaps Up 94(39%) 65(27%) 74(31%) 61(28%) 60(29%) 354(31%)
Gapped Down 316(14%) 204(9%) 202(8%) 226(10%) 206(9%) 1154(10%)
Un-filled Gaps Down 131(41%) 66(32%) 51(25%) 69(31%) 68(33%) 385(33%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Soybean Oil(CBOT)

UNCH
>0%-
<1%
+1%-
<2%
+2%-
<3%
+3%-
<4%
+4%-
<5%
+5%-
<6%
+6%-
<7%
+7%-
<8%
+8%-
<9%
+9%-
<10%
+10%-
<20%

>+20%
187 3002 1600 592 264 90 29 6 3 1 0 0 0
<0%-
>-1%
-1%-
>-2%
-2%-
>-3%
-3%-
>-4%
-4%-
>-5%
-5%-
>-6%
-6%-
>-7%
-7%-
>-8%
-8%-
>-9%
-9%-
>-10%
-10%-
>-20%

<-20%
3303 1697 573 223 73 17 6 0 1 0 0 0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the CBOT Soybean Oil futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Soybean Oil: crd Decatur Ill - Jan 7, 2022
  Period Low(Jan-Dec) Period High(Jan-Dec) Last Day Average
Year Date Price Date Price Date Price Price
2021 01/19/2021 42.83 06/08/2021
06/09/2021
06/10/2021
06/11/2021
06/14/2021
81.08 12/31/2021 65.05 64.52
2020 04/27/2020 24.29 12/31/2020 44.33 12/31/2020 44.33 31.37
2019 05/06/2019 25.97 12/30/2019 35.00 12/31/2019 34.32 28.98
2018 07/16/2018 26.52 01/03/2018 32.48 12/31/2018 27.30 28.90
2017 04/11/2017 29.07 09/01/2017 34.67 12/29/2017 32.21 32.05
2016 07/25/2016 27.84 12/07/2016 37.43 12/30/2016 32.92 31.62
2015 09/18/2015 25.43 06/05/2015 35.03 12/31/2015 29.68 30.20
2014 12/02/2014 31.80 04/16/2014 43.21 12/31/2014 32.22 36.81
2013 12/30/2013 36.37 02/04/2013 50.99 12/31/2013 36.57 44.98
2012 11/16/2012 44.68 09/04/2012 56.32 12/31/2012 46.86 51.00
2011 12/14/2011 48.40 04/08/2011 58.40 12/30/2011 51.97 54.02
2010 01/28/2010
01/29/2010
32.90 12/27/2010 53.97 12/31/2010 53.61 39.14
2009 03/11/2009 26.88 11/27/2009 38.96 12/31/2009 37.17 33.04
2008 12/05/2008 27.05 03/03/2008 67.69 12/31/2008 31.56 49.44
2007 01/10/2007 26.82 12/26/2007 47.68 12/31/2007 47.47 34.93
2006 01/19/2006 20.71 12/01/2006 28.61 12/29/2006 28.26 24.46
2005 02/03/2005 19.49 06/24/2005 26.83 12/30/2005 21.05 23.03
2004 12/10/2004 21.05 04/29/2004 36.45 12/30/2004 21.59 28.53
2003 08/14/2003 20.05 12/09/2003 30.52 12/31/2003 29.25 23.62
2002 02/14/2002 13.85 11/27/2002
11/29/2002
23.52 12/31/2002 22.12 18.31
2001 02/08/2001 11.83 08/13/2001 18.35 12/31/2001 14.62 14.50
2000 12/28/2000 12.65 04/19/2000 17.94 12/29/2000 12.66 14.99
1999 07/28/1999 14.53 01/06/1999 23.67 12/30/1999 15.15 17.43
1998 12/30/1998 22.84 04/21/1998 30.18 12/31/1998 22.93 25.75
1997 07/25/1997 21.32 11/13/1997 26.72 12/31/1997 25.04 23.33
1996 10/11/1996 21.06 05/08/1996 27.25 12/31/1996 21.25 23.73
1995 12/11/1995
12/12/1995
24.38 01/03/1995
01/04/1995
01/05/1995
30.75 12/29/1995 24.56 26.70
1994 08/03/1994 23.85 12/30/1994 31.57 12/30/1994 31.57 27.91
1993 06/15/1993 20.20 12/30/1993 30.07 12/30/1993 30.07 22.92
1992 10/05/1992 17.42 06/02/1992 21.60 12/31/1992 20.47 19.27

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the March Soybean Oil(CBOT) futures contracts.

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Oil(CBOT)
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 17 24 19 25 23 20 19 27 24 26
Exceeded High   15 12 18 17 18 17 15 17 25 20 14
Scenario Percentage   68% 71% 75% 89% 72% 74% 75% 89% 93% 83% 54%
Avg Max Increase   12.78% 9.79% 7.91% 10.05% 9.69% 9.55% 11.50% 12.38% 10.56% 10.16% 5.77%
Max Increase   63.86% 47.53% 25.97% 22.49% 19.19% 22.80% 34.54% 33.72% 41.95% 35.28% 19.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 16 17 20 17 13 17 15 16 11 6
Avg Max Decline   -1.77% -3.13% -1.38% -2.64% -1.76% -2.14% -2.90% -2.41% -1.97% -2.07% -1.01%
Max Decline   -6.51% -10.23% -7.06% -9.18% -5.15% -8.98% -9.56% -7.42% -7.18% -7.65% -3.62%
Avg Days to Max Decline   10 9 6 6 8 9 12 9 4 6 1
2022 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes   Yes        
Action   No       No   Not Yet        
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   23 27 20 26 20 22 24 26 18 21 19
Penetrated Low   20 22 14 22 15 16 21 15 14 16 12
Scenario Percentage   87% 81% 70% 85% 75% 73% 88% 58% 78% 76% 63%
Avg Max Decline   9.35% 7.03% 8.39% 8.05% 6.90% 6.20% 5.91% 8.19% 7.00% 4.53% 2.93%
Max Decline   24.55% 25.89% 42.37% 31.91% 17.43% 14.37% 23.97% 20.69% 16.61% 8.77% 5.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 15 18 15 21 18 17 13 18 11 6
Avg Max Increase   -2.09% -2.62% -2.22% -1.89% -3.35% -3.58% -3.01% -2.68% -2.82% -2.45% -1.23%
Max Increase   -11.51% -12.73% -10.22% -7.82% -9.80% -15.27% -8.58% -6.70% -5.96% -5.66% -5.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 9 6 6 9 12 12 6 5 7 1
2022 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes   Yes          
Action     Yes Yes No   Yes          
High 56.88 63.67 62.77 62.03 59.35 62.21 60.54 58.31        
Low 50.76 50.22 55.90 55.66 54.31 57.03 54.70 51.21        
Close/Last 55.45 60.64 60.20 58.26 57.89 59.71 55.19 56.57        

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