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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Feeder Cattle(CME)

MRC Logo
MRCI's Futures Highlight - Feeder Cattle(CME)

MRCI hopes this profile of the CME Feeder Cattle futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by Commodity Research Bureau

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the CME Feeder Cattle futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Feeder Cattle(CME)
from 1/1978 - 5/2022
Calendar
Year
Monday
Avg Rng
Tuesday
Avg Rng
Wednesday
Avg Rng
Thursday
Avg Rng
Friday
Avg Rng
Yearly
Avg Rng
1978 1.024($512) 1.028($514) 0.954($477) 0.926($463) 0.996($498) 0.985($492)
1979 1.340($670) 1.321($661) 1.445($723) 1.321($660) 1.375($687) 1.360($680)
1980 1.306($653) 1.232($616) 1.130($565) 1.152($576) 1.161($581) 1.196($598)
1981 1.091($546) 1.112($556) 1.082($541) 1.043($522) 1.049($524) 1.076($538)
1982 1.020($510) 0.909($454) 0.940($470) 0.866($433) 0.917($458) 0.930($465)
1983 0.881($440) 0.801($401) 0.767($384) 0.761($380) 0.775($388) 0.796($398)
1984 0.637($318) 0.616($308) 0.634($317) 0.720($360) 0.745($373) 0.671($335)
1985 0.926($463) 0.979($489) 0.861($430) 0.829($415) 0.784($392) 0.876($438)
1986 0.882($441) 0.911($456) 0.905($453) 0.826($413) 0.799($400) 0.865($433)
1987 0.850($425) 0.823($411) 0.798($399) 0.838($419) 0.785($393) 0.819($409)
1988 1.024($512) 0.790($395) 0.799($400) 0.843($421) 0.763($382) 0.841($420)
1989 0.698($349) 0.601($300) 0.545($273) 0.574($287) 0.584($292) 0.599($299)
1990 0.584($292) 0.574($287) 0.547($273) 0.541($270) 0.591($296) 0.567($284)
1991 0.739($369) 0.625($313) 0.574($287) 0.674($337) 0.599($300) 0.641($321)
1992 0.693($347) 0.585($293) 0.525($262) 0.465($232) 0.476($238) 0.548($274)
1993 0.640($320) 0.645($322) 0.571($285) 0.537($269) 0.547($274) 0.588($294)
1994 0.814($407) 0.704($352) 0.696($348) 0.629($314) 0.615($308) 0.690($345)
1995 0.716($358) 0.675($337) 0.659($329) 0.636($318) 0.671($336) 0.671($335)
1996 0.857($429) 0.779($389) 0.795($397) 0.735($367) 0.825($413) 0.798($399)
1997 0.821($410) 0.725($363) 0.697($349) 0.738($369) 0.815($408) 0.758($379)
1998 0.913($457) 0.906($453) 0.897($448) 0.854($427) 0.889($445) 0.892($446)
1999 0.799($400) 0.686($343) 0.697($348) 0.741($370) 0.689($344) 0.721($361)
2000 0.551($276) 0.530($265) 0.571($285) 0.525($263) 0.573($287) 0.550($275)
2001 0.740($370) 0.730($365) 0.679($340) 0.637($318) 0.763($382) 0.709($355)
2002 0.861($430) 0.726($363) 0.772($386) 0.822($411) 0.791($395) 0.794($397)
2003 1.015($507) 1.120($560) 1.149($574) 0.976($488) 0.939($469) 1.041($521)
2004 1.186($593) 1.241($620) 1.432($716) 1.272($636) 1.247($623) 1.278($639)
2005 1.116($558) 0.989($495) 0.953($476) 1.010($505) 1.114($557) 1.034($517)
2006 1.359($680) 1.045($522) 1.238($619) 1.271($636) 1.201($600) 1.220($610)
2007 1.216($608) 1.188($594) 1.210($605) 1.254($627) 1.372($686) 1.249($624)
2008 1.704($852) 1.602($801) 1.601($800) 1.663($832) 1.682($841) 1.649($825)
2009 1.257($628) 1.260($630) 1.237($618) 1.254($627) 1.243($622) 1.250($625)
2010 1.186($593) 1.254($627) 1.096($548) 1.105($553) 1.099($550) 1.148($574)
2011 1.727($864) 1.803($901) 1.687($844) 1.800($900) 1.677($839) 1.739($870)
2012 1.681($840) 1.689($845) 1.718($859) 1.681($841) 1.575($788) 1.669($834)
2013 1.409($705) 1.442($721) 1.426($713) 1.459($730) 1.440($720) 1.436($718)
2014 2.210($1105) 2.047($1024) 2.197($1098) 2.266($1133) 2.204($1102) 2.184($1092)
2015 3.245($1623) 3.365($1683) 3.211($1605) 3.178($1589) 3.337($1668) 3.267($1634)
2016 3.024($1512) 2.792($1396) 2.604($1302) 2.765($1383) 3.008($1504) 2.834($1417)
2017 2.683($1342) 2.858($1429) 2.713($1356) 2.497($1248) 2.430($1215) 2.635($1318)
2018 2.271($1135) 2.100($1050) 2.087($1043) 2.262($1131) 2.157($1078) 2.174($1087)
2019 2.202($1101) 1.956($978) 1.988($994) 1.938($969) 2.315($1158) 2.079($1039)
2020 3.054($1527) 2.696($1348) 2.556($1278) 2.479($1240) 2.549($1275) 2.662($1331)
2021 2.431($1216) 2.435($1218) 2.300($1150) 2.091($1046) 2.413($1206) 2.333($1166)
2022 2.845($1422) 2.261($1131) 1.967($983) 2.038($1019) 2.178($1089) 2.246($1123)

What other characteristics do CME Feeder Cattle futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Feeder Cattle(CME)
from 1/1978 - 5/2022
Summary
Item
Monday
Summary
Tuesday
Summary
Wednesday
Summary
Thursday
Summary
Friday
Summary
Yearly
Summary
Range 1.314($657) 1.259($629) 1.236($618) 1.226($613) 1.248($624) 1.256($628)
Closed Up 1088(51%) 1111(49%) 1082(48%) 1133(51%) 1161(52%) 5575(50%)
Closed Dn 983(46%) 1123(49%) 1143(50%) 1047(47%) 998(45%) 5294(48%)
Closed Uchg 44(2%) 44(2%) 51(2%) 48(2%) 73(3%) 260(2%)
Gapped up 355(17%) 274(12%) 252(11%) 247(11%) 268(12%) 1396(13%)
Un-filled Gaps Up 150(42%) 88(32%) 78(31%) 79(32%) 89(33%) 484(35%)
Gapped Down 326(15%) 237(10%) 219(10%) 207(9%) 200(9%) 1189(11%)
Un-filled Gaps Down 121(37%) 78(33%) 67(31%) 57(28%) 53(27%) 376(32%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Feeder Cattle(CME)

UNCH
>0%-
<1%
+1%-
<2%
+2%-
<3%
+3%-
<4%
+4%-
<5%
+5%-
<6%
+6%-
<7%
+7%-
<8%
+8%-
<9%
+9%-
<10%
+10%-
<20%

>+20%
260 4312 1028 202 25 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
<0%-
>-1%
-1%-
>-2%
-2%-
>-3%
-3%-
>-4%
-4%-
>-5%
-5%-
>-6%
-6%-
>-7%
-7%-
>-8%
-8%-
>-9%
-9%-
>-10%
-10%-
>-20%

<-20%
4112 921 225 31 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the CME Feeder Cattle futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Feeder Cattle (Ok. City) - May 26, 2022
  Period Low(Jan-Dec) Period High(Jan-Dec) Last Day Average
Year Date Price Date Price Date Price Price
2021 05/10/2021 130.150 12/31/2021 165.210 12/31/2021 165.210 146.710
2020 04/15/2020 114.230 01/10/2020 146.830 12/31/2020 138.770 134.921
2019 06/21/2019 131.370 11/13/2019 147.440 12/31/2019 141.810 140.716
2018 05/22/2018 133.410 10/09/2018 158.450 12/31/2018 144.640 146.371
2017 03/02/2017
03/03/2017
126.440 11/13/2017 160.000 12/29/2017 146.510 144.461
2016 10/24/2016 119.480 01/07/2016 167.940 12/30/2016 133.170 144.380
2015 12/21/2015 150.060 01/09/2015 235.220 12/31/2015 159.640 206.078
2014 01/02/2014 167.480 12/03/2014 244.990 12/31/2014 217.640 205.573
2013 05/31/2013 130.810 12/13/2013 168.320 12/31/2013 166.310 148.542
2012 07/27/2012 134.180 02/28/2012 159.190 12/31/2012 146.880 147.477
2011 01/03/2011 122.440 12/12/2011 145.310 12/30/2011 144.200 133.317
2010 01/04/2010 94.380 12/31/2010 123.470 12/31/2010 123.470 109.686
2009 02/23/2009
02/24/2009
90.810 07/29/2009
07/30/2009
101.610 12/31/2009 93.300 96.301
2008 12/10/2008
12/11/2008
88.580 08/25/2008 113.610 12/31/2008 92.930 103.032
2007 01/31/2007 94.100 09/07/2007 119.290 12/31/2007 104.130 107.901
2006 11/15/2006 97.680 01/30/2006 131.750 12/29/2006 97.960 116.823
2005 01/03/2005 108.000 05/09/2005 131.800 12/30/2005 122.630 121.639
2004 01/09/2004 73.630 07/12/2004 128.500 12/30/2004 113.190 110.927
2003 12/29/2003 75.000 11/24/2003
11/25/2003
11/26/2003
11/28/2003
112.250 12/31/2003 75.700 96.545
2002 07/29/2002 81.000 03/12/2002
03/13/2002
03/14/2002
03/15/2002
96.060 12/31/2002 89.250 88.341
2001 11/12/2001 83.630 04/11/2001 109.880 12/31/2001 95.310 96.034
2000 10/09/2000 89.500 07/17/2000 106.880 12/29/2000 98.880 97.153
1999 01/04/1999 75.630 12/20/1999 97.000 12/30/1999 95.750 85.102
1998 10/01/1998 68.880 04/20/1998
04/21/1998
04/22/1998
04/23/1998
04/24/1998
90.880 12/31/1998 74.750 79.495
1997 01/02/1997
01/03/1997
01/13/1997
68.750 07/08/1997
07/09/1997
07/10/1997
07/11/1997
93.750 12/31/1997 85.370 83.808
1996 04/29/1996 54.250 12/16/1996 69.630 12/31/1996 68.750 62.105
1995 11/07/1995
11/08/1995
11/09/1995
11/10/1995
62.630 01/03/1995
01/04/1995
01/05/1995
01/06/1995
85.750 12/29/1995 64.130 72.197
1994 10/03/1994 76.130 03/21/1994
03/22/1994
03/23/1994
03/24/1994
03/25/1994
95.000 12/30/1994 82.630 86.089
1993 12/06/1993 89.000 06/21/1993
06/22/1993
06/23/1993
06/25/1993
06/28/1993
102.500 12/30/1993 91.250 95.115
1992 10/23/1992 83.750 03/31/1992 94.750 12/31/1992 90.630 89.429

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the December Feeder Cattle(CME) futures contracts.

ScenarioSM Study for September Feeder Cattle(CME) as of May 13, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   22 39 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   10 23 27 27 25 20 25 26 26 28 23
Exceeded High   8 21 26 25 17 19 19 20 25 23 11
Scenario Percentage   80% 91% 96% 93% 68% 95% 76% 77% 96% 82% 48%
Avg Max Increase   3.94% 4.69% 4.24% 4.58% 6.85% 6.06% 5.85% 6.28% 5.73% 4.41% 3.30%
Max Increase   9.04% 11.41% 14.35% 16.98% 23.72% 23.29% 15.76% 13.40% 10.82% 13.07% 6.71%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 18 15 16 18 17 19 22 18 14 15
Avg Max Decline   -0.95% -0.97% -0.85% -0.99% -0.96% -1.23% -1.24% -2.21% -1.41% -1.87% -0.66%
Max Decline   -2.20% -3.13% -6.06% -3.61% -3.70% -5.60% -6.51% -6.69% -4.86% -6.34% -1.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline   10 9 8 7 6 6 8 9 8 7 3
2022 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes              
Action     Yes Yes Yes              
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   22 39 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   12 16 16 17 20 25 20 19 19 17 22
Penetrated Low   9 12 8 12 17 20 12 11 13 12 10
Scenario Percentage   75% 75% 50% 71% 85% 80% 60% 58% 68% 71% 45%
Avg Max Decline   3.74% 5.71% 5.91% 8.03% 6.97% 6.23% 5.55% 7.01% 7.17% 4.25% 2.81%
Max Decline   11.88% 14.00% 11.05% 21.57% 22.25% 13.56% 12.63% 13.61% 12.06% 8.00% 5.30%
Avg Days To Max Decline   10 16 17 19 17 15 18 20 17 17 12
Avg Max Increase   -1.41% -0.52% -1.21% -1.27% -1.03% -1.21% -1.80% -1.90% -2.03% -3.04% -1.04%
Max Increase   -4.91% -1.99% -2.54% -5.25% -4.98% -8.09% -7.37% -5.54% -5.51% -8.36% -2.72%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 9 11 3
2022 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes Yes Yes Yes      
Action   Yes       Yes Yes Yes        
High 173.950 174.650 179.530 183.000 184.780 188.250 184.250 180.950 179.530      
Low 173.950 169.635 168.235 175.600 179.780 181.235 176.400 170.350 169.280      
Close/Last 173.950 171.000 178.750 183.000 184.680 182.250 180.080 171.430 170.680      

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