|
 |
| MRCI's Futures Highlight - Feeder Cattle(CME) |
|
MRCI hopes this profile of the CME Feeder Cattle futures contract, with
its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of
long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed
to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly
and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the
underlying cash market.
|
|
The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the CME Feeder Cattle futures.
The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and
further insight into the dynamics of this market.
|
MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Feeder Cattle(CME)
from 1/1978 - 3/2024 |
Calendar
Year |
Monday
Avg Rng |
Tuesday
Avg Rng |
Wednesday
Avg Rng |
Thursday
Avg Rng |
Friday
Avg Rng |
Yearly
Avg Rng |
| 1978 |
1.024($512) |
1.028($514) |
0.954($477) |
0.926($463) |
0.996($498) |
0.985($492) |
| 1979 |
1.340($670) |
1.321($661) |
1.445($723) |
1.321($660) |
1.375($687) |
1.360($680) |
| 1980 |
1.306($653) |
1.232($616) |
1.130($565) |
1.152($576) |
1.161($581) |
1.196($598) |
| 1981 |
1.091($546) |
1.112($556) |
1.082($541) |
1.043($522) |
1.049($524) |
1.076($538) |
| 1982 |
1.020($510) |
0.909($454) |
0.940($470) |
0.866($433) |
0.917($458) |
0.930($465) |
| 1983 |
0.881($440) |
0.801($401) |
0.767($384) |
0.761($380) |
0.775($388) |
0.796($398) |
| 1984 |
0.637($318) |
0.616($308) |
0.634($317) |
0.720($360) |
0.745($373) |
0.671($335) |
| 1985 |
0.926($463) |
0.979($489) |
0.861($430) |
0.829($415) |
0.784($392) |
0.876($438) |
| 1986 |
0.882($441) |
0.911($456) |
0.905($453) |
0.826($413) |
0.799($400) |
0.865($433) |
| 1987 |
0.850($425) |
0.823($411) |
0.798($399) |
0.838($419) |
0.785($393) |
0.819($409) |
| 1988 |
1.024($512) |
0.790($395) |
0.799($400) |
0.843($421) |
0.763($382) |
0.841($420) |
| 1989 |
0.698($349) |
0.601($300) |
0.545($273) |
0.574($287) |
0.584($292) |
0.599($299) |
| 1990 |
0.584($292) |
0.574($287) |
0.547($273) |
0.541($270) |
0.591($296) |
0.567($284) |
| 1991 |
0.739($369) |
0.625($313) |
0.574($287) |
0.674($337) |
0.599($300) |
0.641($321) |
| 1992 |
0.693($347) |
0.585($293) |
0.525($262) |
0.465($232) |
0.476($238) |
0.548($274) |
| 1993 |
0.640($320) |
0.645($322) |
0.571($285) |
0.537($269) |
0.547($274) |
0.588($294) |
| 1994 |
0.814($407) |
0.704($352) |
0.696($348) |
0.629($314) |
0.615($308) |
0.690($345) |
| 1995 |
0.716($358) |
0.675($337) |
0.659($329) |
0.636($318) |
0.671($336) |
0.671($335) |
| 1996 |
0.857($429) |
0.779($389) |
0.795($397) |
0.735($367) |
0.825($413) |
0.798($399) |
| 1997 |
0.821($410) |
0.725($363) |
0.697($349) |
0.738($369) |
0.815($408) |
0.758($379) |
| 1998 |
0.913($457) |
0.906($453) |
0.897($448) |
0.854($427) |
0.889($445) |
0.892($446) |
| 1999 |
0.799($400) |
0.686($343) |
0.697($348) |
0.741($370) |
0.689($344) |
0.721($361) |
| 2000 |
0.551($276) |
0.530($265) |
0.571($285) |
0.525($263) |
0.573($287) |
0.550($275) |
| 2001 |
0.740($370) |
0.730($365) |
0.679($340) |
0.637($318) |
0.763($382) |
0.709($355) |
| 2002 |
0.861($430) |
0.726($363) |
0.772($386) |
0.822($411) |
0.791($395) |
0.794($397) |
| 2003 |
1.015($507) |
1.120($560) |
1.149($574) |
0.976($488) |
0.939($469) |
1.041($521) |
| 2004 |
1.186($593) |
1.241($620) |
1.432($716) |
1.272($636) |
1.247($623) |
1.278($639) |
| 2005 |
1.116($558) |
0.989($495) |
0.953($476) |
1.010($505) |
1.114($557) |
1.034($517) |
| 2006 |
1.359($680) |
1.045($522) |
1.238($619) |
1.271($636) |
1.201($600) |
1.220($610) |
| 2007 |
1.216($608) |
1.188($594) |
1.210($605) |
1.254($627) |
1.372($686) |
1.249($624) |
| 2008 |
1.704($852) |
1.602($801) |
1.601($800) |
1.663($832) |
1.682($841) |
1.649($825) |
| 2009 |
1.257($628) |
1.260($630) |
1.237($618) |
1.254($627) |
1.243($622) |
1.250($625) |
| 2010 |
1.186($593) |
1.254($627) |
1.096($548) |
1.105($553) |
1.099($550) |
1.148($574) |
| 2011 |
1.727($864) |
1.803($901) |
1.687($844) |
1.800($900) |
1.677($839) |
1.739($870) |
| 2012 |
1.681($840) |
1.689($845) |
1.718($859) |
1.681($841) |
1.575($788) |
1.669($834) |
| 2013 |
1.409($705) |
1.442($721) |
1.426($713) |
1.459($730) |
1.440($720) |
1.436($718) |
| 2014 |
2.210($1105) |
2.047($1024) |
2.197($1098) |
2.266($1133) |
2.204($1102) |
2.184($1092) |
| 2015 |
3.245($1623) |
3.365($1683) |
3.211($1605) |
3.178($1589) |
3.337($1668) |
3.267($1634) |
| 2016 |
3.024($1512) |
2.792($1396) |
2.604($1302) |
2.765($1383) |
3.008($1504) |
2.834($1417) |
| 2017 |
2.683($1342) |
2.858($1429) |
2.713($1356) |
2.497($1248) |
2.430($1215) |
2.635($1318) |
| 2018 |
2.271($1135) |
2.100($1050) |
2.087($1043) |
2.262($1131) |
2.157($1078) |
2.174($1087) |
| 2019 |
2.202($1101) |
1.956($978) |
1.988($994) |
1.938($969) |
2.315($1158) |
2.079($1039) |
| 2020 |
3.054($1527) |
2.696($1348) |
2.556($1278) |
2.479($1240) |
2.549($1275) |
2.662($1331) |
| 2021 |
2.431($1216) |
2.435($1218) |
2.300($1150) |
2.091($1046) |
2.413($1206) |
2.333($1166) |
| 2022 |
2.593($1296) |
2.387($1194) |
2.105($1052) |
2.017($1008) |
2.115($1058) |
2.235($1118) |
| 2023 |
3.039($1519) |
2.851($1426) |
2.891($1445) |
2.762($1381) |
2.754($1377) |
2.855($1428) |
| 2024 |
3.135($1567) |
3.118($1559) |
2.677($1338) |
3.611($1805) |
3.456($1728) |
3.198($1599) |
|
What other characteristics do CME Feeder Cattle futures exhibit for various days of the
week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to
expiration for each contract.
|
MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Feeder Cattle(CME)
from 1/1978 - 3/2024 |
Summary
Item |
Monday
Summary |
Tuesday
Summary |
Wednesday
Summary |
Thursday
Summary |
Friday
Summary |
Yearly
Summary |
| Range |
1.371($686) |
1.319($660) |
1.293($646) |
1.284($642) |
1.304($652) |
1.313($657) |
| Closed Up |
1132(52%) |
1157(49%) |
1132(48%) |
1187(51%) |
1214(52%) |
5822(50%) |
| Closed Dn |
1020(46%) |
1173(49%) |
1190(50%) |
1087(47%) |
1040(45%) |
5510(48%) |
| Closed Uchg |
45(2%) |
44(2%) |
51(2%) |
49(2%) |
73(3%) |
262(2%) |
| Gapped up |
367(17%) |
281(12%) |
259(11%) |
252(11%) |
272(12%) |
1431(12%) |
| Un-filled Gaps Up |
155(42%) |
92(33%) |
78(30%) |
81(32%) |
90(33%) |
496(35%) |
| Gapped Down |
336(15%) |
241(10%) |
227(10%) |
210(9%) |
201(9%) |
1215(10%) |
| Un-filled Gaps Down |
125(37%) |
79(33%) |
70(31%) |
60(29%) |
53(26%) |
387(32%) |
| Daily Percent Change Summary for Feeder Cattle(CME) |
UNCH |
>0%-
<1% |
+1%-
<2% |
+2%-
<3% |
+3%-
<4% |
+4%-
<5% |
+5%-
<6% |
+6%-
<7% |
+7%-
<8% |
+8%-
<9% |
+9%-
<10% |
+10%-
<20% |
>+20% |
| 262 |
4501 |
1080 |
207 |
26 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
<0%-
>-1% |
-1%-
>-2% |
-2%-
>-3% |
-3%-
>-4% |
-4%-
>-5% |
-5%-
>-6% |
-6%-
>-7% |
-7%-
>-8% |
-8%-
>-9% |
-9%-
>-10% |
-10%-
>-20% |
<-20% |
| 4275 |
967 |
231 |
32 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the
CME Feeder Cattle futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.
|
| Feeder Cattle (Ok. City) - May 26, 2022 |
|---|
| |
Period Low(Jan-Dec) |
Period High(Jan-Dec) |
Last Day |
Average |
| Year |
Date |
Price |
Date |
Price |
Date |
Price |
Price |
| 2021 |
05/10/2021 |
130.150 |
12/31/2021 |
165.210 |
12/31/2021 |
165.210 |
146.710 |
| 2020 |
04/15/2020 |
114.230 |
01/10/2020 |
146.830 |
12/31/2020 |
138.770 |
134.921 |
| 2019 |
06/21/2019 |
131.370 |
11/13/2019 |
147.440 |
12/31/2019 |
141.810 |
140.716 |
| 2018 |
05/22/2018 |
133.410 |
10/09/2018 |
158.450 |
12/31/2018 |
144.640 |
146.371 |
| 2017 |
03/02/2017
03/03/2017 |
126.440 |
11/13/2017 |
160.000 |
12/29/2017 |
146.510 |
144.461 |
| 2016 |
10/24/2016 |
119.480 |
01/07/2016 |
167.940 |
12/30/2016 |
133.170 |
144.380 |
| 2015 |
12/21/2015 |
150.060 |
01/09/2015 |
235.220 |
12/31/2015 |
159.640 |
206.078 |
| 2014 |
01/02/2014 |
167.480 |
12/03/2014 |
244.990 |
12/31/2014 |
217.640 |
205.573 |
| 2013 |
05/31/2013 |
130.810 |
12/13/2013 |
168.320 |
12/31/2013 |
166.310 |
148.542 |
| 2012 |
07/27/2012 |
134.180 |
02/28/2012 |
159.190 |
12/31/2012 |
146.880 |
147.477 |
| 2011 |
01/03/2011 |
122.440 |
12/12/2011 |
145.310 |
12/30/2011 |
144.200 |
133.317 |
| 2010 |
01/04/2010 |
94.380 |
12/31/2010 |
123.470 |
12/31/2010 |
123.470 |
109.686 |
| 2009 |
02/23/2009
02/24/2009 |
90.810 |
07/29/2009
07/30/2009 |
101.610 |
12/31/2009 |
93.300 |
96.301 |
| 2008 |
12/10/2008
12/11/2008 |
88.580 |
08/25/2008 |
113.610 |
12/31/2008 |
92.930 |
103.032 |
| 2007 |
01/31/2007 |
94.100 |
09/07/2007 |
119.290 |
12/31/2007 |
104.130 |
107.901 |
| 2006 |
11/15/2006 |
97.680 |
01/30/2006 |
131.750 |
12/29/2006 |
97.960 |
116.823 |
| 2005 |
01/03/2005 |
108.000 |
05/09/2005 |
131.800 |
12/30/2005 |
122.630 |
121.639 |
| 2004 |
01/09/2004 |
73.630 |
07/12/2004 |
128.500 |
12/30/2004 |
113.190 |
110.927 |
| 2003 |
12/29/2003 |
75.000 |
11/24/2003
11/25/2003
11/26/2003
11/28/2003 |
112.250 |
12/31/2003 |
75.700 |
96.545 |
| 2002 |
07/29/2002 |
81.000 |
03/12/2002
03/13/2002
03/14/2002
03/15/2002 |
96.060 |
12/31/2002 |
89.250 |
88.341 |
| 2001 |
11/12/2001 |
83.630 |
04/11/2001 |
109.880 |
12/31/2001 |
95.310 |
96.034 |
| 2000 |
10/09/2000 |
89.500 |
07/17/2000 |
106.880 |
12/29/2000 |
98.880 |
97.153 |
| 1999 |
01/04/1999 |
75.630 |
12/20/1999 |
97.000 |
12/30/1999 |
95.750 |
85.102 |
| 1998 |
10/01/1998 |
68.880 |
04/20/1998
04/21/1998
04/22/1998
04/23/1998
04/24/1998 |
90.880 |
12/31/1998 |
74.750 |
79.495 |
| 1997 |
01/02/1997
01/03/1997
01/13/1997 |
68.750 |
07/08/1997
07/09/1997
07/10/1997
07/11/1997 |
93.750 |
12/31/1997 |
85.370 |
83.808 |
| 1996 |
04/29/1996 |
54.250 |
12/16/1996 |
69.630 |
12/31/1996 |
68.750 |
62.105 |
| 1995 |
11/07/1995
11/08/1995
11/09/1995
11/10/1995 |
62.630 |
01/03/1995
01/04/1995
01/05/1995
01/06/1995 |
85.750 |
12/29/1995 |
64.130 |
72.197 |
| 1994 |
10/03/1994 |
76.130 |
03/21/1994
03/22/1994
03/23/1994
03/24/1994
03/25/1994 |
95.000 |
12/30/1994 |
82.630 |
86.089 |
| 1993 |
12/06/1993 |
89.000 |
06/21/1993
06/22/1993
06/23/1993
06/25/1993
06/28/1993 |
102.500 |
12/30/1993 |
91.250 |
95.115 |
| 1992 |
10/23/1992 |
83.750 |
03/31/1992 |
94.750 |
12/31/1992 |
90.630 |
89.429 |
|
The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the
December Feeder Cattle(CME) futures contracts.
|
| ScenarioSM Study for September Feeder Cattle(CME) as of May 13, 2022 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
| Tested Years |
|
22 |
39 |
44 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
|
10 |
23 |
27 |
27 |
25 |
20 |
25 |
26 |
26 |
28 |
23 |
| Exceeded High |
|
8 |
21 |
26 |
25 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
25 |
23 |
11 |
| Scenario Percentage |
|
80% |
91% |
96% |
93% |
68% |
95% |
76% |
77% |
96% |
82% |
48% |
| Avg Max Increase |
|
3.94% |
4.69% |
4.24% |
4.58% |
6.85% |
6.06% |
5.85% |
6.28% |
5.73% |
4.41% |
3.30% |
| Max Increase |
|
9.04% |
11.41% |
14.35% |
16.98% |
23.72% |
23.29% |
15.76% |
13.40% |
10.82% |
13.07% |
6.71% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
|
14 |
18 |
15 |
16 |
18 |
17 |
19 |
22 |
18 |
14 |
15 |
| Avg Max Decline |
|
-0.95% |
-0.97% |
-0.85% |
-0.99% |
-0.96% |
-1.23% |
-1.24% |
-2.21% |
-1.41% |
-1.87% |
-0.66% |
| Max Decline |
|
-2.20% |
-3.13% |
-6.06% |
-3.61% |
-3.70% |
-5.60% |
-6.51% |
-6.69% |
-4.86% |
-6.34% |
-1.79% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
|
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
3 |
| 2022 Contract Condition |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Action |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
| Tested Years |
|
22 |
39 |
44 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
|
12 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
20 |
25 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
22 |
| Penetrated Low |
|
9 |
12 |
8 |
12 |
17 |
20 |
12 |
11 |
13 |
12 |
10 |
| Scenario Percentage |
|
75% |
75% |
50% |
71% |
85% |
80% |
60% |
58% |
68% |
71% |
45% |
| Avg Max Decline |
|
3.74% |
5.71% |
5.91% |
8.03% |
6.97% |
6.23% |
5.55% |
7.01% |
7.17% |
4.25% |
2.81% |
| Max Decline |
|
11.88% |
14.00% |
11.05% |
21.57% |
22.25% |
13.56% |
12.63% |
13.61% |
12.06% |
8.00% |
5.30% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
|
10 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
15 |
18 |
20 |
17 |
17 |
12 |
| Avg Max Increase |
|
-1.41% |
-0.52% |
-1.21% |
-1.27% |
-1.03% |
-1.21% |
-1.80% |
-1.90% |
-2.03% |
-3.04% |
-1.04% |
| Max Increase |
|
-4.91% |
-1.99% |
-2.54% |
-5.25% |
-4.98% |
-8.09% |
-7.37% |
-5.54% |
-5.51% |
-8.36% |
-2.72% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
|
10 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
8 |
6 |
9 |
11 |
3 |
| 2022 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
| Action |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
| High |
173.950 |
174.650 |
179.530 |
183.000 |
184.780 |
188.250 |
184.250 |
180.950 |
179.530 |
|
|
|
| Low |
173.950 |
169.635 |
168.235 |
175.600 |
179.780 |
181.235 |
176.400 |
170.350 |
169.280 |
|
|
|
| Close/Last |
173.950 |
171.000 |
178.750 |
183.000 |
184.680 |
182.250 |
180.080 |
171.430 |
170.680 |
|
|
|
|
