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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Lean Hogs(CME)

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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Lean Hogs(CME)

MRCI hopes this profile of the CME Lean Hogs futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by barchart

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the CME Lean Hogs futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Lean Hogs(CME)
from 1/1976 - 2/2025
Calendar
Year		 Monday
Avg Rng		 Tuesday
Avg Rng		 Wednesday
Avg Rng		 Thursday
Avg Rng		 Friday
Avg Rng		 Yearly
Avg Rng
1976 1.459($583) 1.370($548) 1.395($558) 1.301($521) 1.340($536) 1.372($549)
1977 1.178($471) 1.117($447) 1.183($473) 1.089($436) 1.116($446) 1.136($455)
1978 1.519($608) 1.644($658) 1.528($611) 1.543($617) 1.327($531) 1.512($605)
1979 1.443($577) 1.469($588) 1.526($610) 1.402($561) 1.446($579) 1.457($583)
1980 1.628($651) 1.495($598) 1.382($553) 1.472($589) 1.482($593) 1.490($596)
1981 1.581($632) 1.529($612) 1.550($620) 1.434($574) 1.486($594) 1.516($606)
1982 1.625($650) 1.703($681) 1.621($648) 1.608($643) 1.456($583) 1.603($641)
1983 1.347($539) 1.278($511) 1.248($499) 1.232($493) 1.135($454) 1.247($499)
1984 1.201($480) 1.079($431) 1.030($412) 1.112($445) 1.212($485) 1.126($450)
1985 1.228($491) 1.201($480) 1.176($470) 1.070($428) 1.105($442) 1.156($462)
1986 1.431($572) 1.523($609) 1.420($568) 1.397($559) 1.272($509) 1.410($564)
1987 1.369($548) 1.322($529) 1.208($483) 1.279($512) 1.169($468) 1.269($508)
1988 1.346($538) 1.169($468) 1.212($485) 1.306($523) 1.150($460) 1.235($494)
1989 1.062($425) 0.962($385) 1.034($414) 0.900($360) 0.936($374) 0.978($391)
1990 1.357($543) 1.260($504) 1.208($483) 1.224($489) 1.142($457) 1.237($495)
1991 1.083($433) 0.996($398) 0.961($384) 1.062($425) 0.989($396) 1.017($407)
1992 0.942($377) 0.858($343) 0.847($339) 0.877($351) 0.806($322) 0.866($346)
1993 1.146($458) 1.076($430) 1.057($423) 1.011($404) 1.078($431) 1.073($429)
1994 0.972($389) 0.998($399) 0.963($385) 0.997($399) 1.080($432) 1.002($401)
1995 1.187($475) 1.047($419) 1.036($414) 1.045($418) 0.999($400) 1.061($424)
1996 1.314($526) 1.307($523) 1.295($518) 1.410($564) 1.311($524) 1.327($531)
1997 1.006($402) 1.048($419) 0.942($377) 1.054($422) 0.996($399) 1.009($404)
1998 1.332($533) 1.177($471) 1.134($454) 1.174($469) 1.154($462) 1.193($477)
1999 1.452($581) 1.399($560) 1.422($569) 1.310($524) 1.389($556) 1.394($557)
2000 1.079($432) 1.131($452) 1.063($425) 0.975($390) 1.051($420) 1.059($424)
2001 1.181($472) 1.230($492) 1.220($488) 1.057($423) 1.049($419) 1.146($458)
2002 1.380($552) 1.342($537) 1.351($541) 1.224($490) 1.114($445) 1.281($512)
2003 1.210($484) 1.226($490) 1.397($559) 1.118($447) 1.281($512) 1.248($499)
2004 1.456($583) 1.367($547) 1.351($540) 1.489($595) 1.231($493) 1.379($551)
2005 1.188($475) 1.173($469) 1.239($496) 1.139($456) 1.258($503) 1.200($480)
2006 1.082($433) 1.219($488) 1.208($483) 1.249($500) 1.133($453) 1.180($472)
2007 1.099($440) 1.127($451) 1.145($458) 1.079($432) 1.162($465) 1.123($449)
2008 1.271($509) 1.297($519) 1.337($535) 1.418($567) 1.335($534) 1.332($533)
2009 1.409($563) 1.749($699) 1.621($648) 1.595($638) 1.530($612) 1.584($634)
2010 1.379($552) 1.438($575) 1.410($564) 1.487($595) 1.353($541) 1.414($566)
2011 1.565($626) 1.620($648) 1.685($674) 1.760($704) 1.625($650) 1.653($661)
2012 1.329($532) 1.309($524) 1.538($615) 1.349($539) 1.273($509) 1.360($544)
2013 1.166($466) 1.254($502) 1.372($549) 1.224($490) 1.074($429) 1.219($487)
2014 1.829($731) 2.081($832) 2.266($907) 2.079($832) 1.934($773) 2.041($817)
2015 1.750($700) 1.904($762) 1.891($756) 1.876($751) 1.699($679) 1.826($731)
2016 1.490($596) 1.446($578) 1.540($616) 1.479($591) 1.554($621) 1.502($601)
2017 1.458($583) 1.639($656) 1.505($602) 1.532($613) 1.337($535) 1.495($598)
2018 1.910($764) 1.806($723) 1.688($675) 1.678($671) 1.657($663) 1.746($698)
2019 2.261($904) 2.308($923) 2.164($866) 2.050($820) 2.214($885) 2.200($880)
2020 2.347($939) 2.107($843) 2.032($813) 2.246($898) 2.068($827) 2.158($863)
2021 1.887($755) 1.877($751) 1.771($708) 1.997($799) 2.064($826) 1.918($767)
2022 2.477($991) 2.406($962) 2.244($897) 2.305($922) 2.203($881) 2.323($929)
2023 1.937($775) 1.969($788) 1.868($747) 2.054($822) 1.939($776) 1.953($781)
2024 1.621($649) 1.732($693) 1.607($643) 1.641($656) 1.509($604) 1.623($649)
2025 1.507($603) 1.300($520) 1.569($627) 1.818($727) 1.497($599) 1.545($618)

What other characteristics do CME Lean Hogs futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Lean Hogs(CME)
from 1/1976 - 2/2025
Summary
Item		 Monday
Summary		 Tuesday
Summary		 Wednesday
Summary		 Thursday
Summary		 Friday
Summary		 Yearly
Summary
Range 1.428($571) 1.426($570) 1.408($563) 1.400($560) 1.353($541) 1.403($561)
Closed Up 1136(49%) 1199(48%) 1292(51%) 1242(50%) 1272(52%) 6141(50%)
Closed Dn 1153(50%) 1284(51%) 1195(47%) 1199(48%) 1143(47%) 5974(49%)
Closed Uchg 34(1%) 37(1%) 39(2%) 37(1%) 42(2%) 189(2%)
Gapped up 341(15%) 293(12%) 286(11%) 311(13%) 303(12%) 1534(12%)
Un-filled Gaps Up 137(40%) 81(28%) 96(34%) 112(36%) 109(36%) 535(35%)
Gapped Down 336(14%) 328(13%) 319(13%) 260(10%) 221(9%) 1464(12%)
Un-filled Gaps Down 129(38%) 120(37%) 105(33%) 81(31%) 82(37%) 517(35%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Lean Hogs(CME)

UNCH		 >0%-
<1%		 +1%-
<2%		 +2%-
<3%		 +3%-
<4%		 +4%-
<5%		 +5%-
<6%		 +6%-
<7%		 +7%-
<8%		 +8%-
<9%		 +9%-
<10%		 +10%-
<20%
>+20%
189 3290 1753 713 260 82 25 10 6 1 1 0 0
<0%-
>-1%		 -1%-
>-2%		 -2%-
>-3%		 -3%-
>-4%		 -4%-
>-5%		 -5%-
>-6%		 -6%-
>-7%		 -7%-
>-8%		 -8%-
>-9%		 -9%-
>-10%		 -10%-
>-20%
<-20%
3226 1661 687 286 80 19 7 5 1 1 1 0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the CME Lean Hogs futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Lean Hog Index - Nov 29, 2024
  Period Low(Jan-Dec) Period High(Jan-Dec) Last Day Average
Year Date Price Date Price Date Price Price
2023 12/29/2023 65.050 07/28/2023 106.000 12/29/2023 65.050 81.391
2022 01/03/2022 72.750 08/08/2022 122.250 12/30/2022 79.450 98.150
2021 01/04/2021 61.470 06/14/2021 122.680 12/31/2021 71.850 92.859
2020 04/17/2020 44.550 10/20/2020 78.690 12/31/2020 60.620 60.354
2019 03/07/2019 51.710 08/02/2019 84.680 12/31/2019 57.730 67.414
2018 08/31/2018 45.440 06/22/2018 86.200 12/31/2018 53.050 65.027
2017 09/29/2017 54.290 07/12/2017 92.840 12/29/2017 62.230 71.440
2016 11/21/2016 47.490 06/28/2016 85.030 12/30/2016 57.470 65.087
2015 12/31/2015 52.870 05/20/2015 83.200 12/31/2015 52.870 70.407
2014 12/31/2014 78.110 07/16/2014 134.170 12/31/2014 78.110 105.190
2013 03/26/2013 74.210 06/20/2013 104.230 12/31/2013 79.750 89.713
2012 09/18/2012 67.630 06/26/2012 103.080 12/31/2012 82.390 85.424
2011 01/04/2011 69.770 08/04/2011 106.290 12/30/2011 78.720 87.536
2010 11/02/2010 55.920 05/04/2010 87.230 12/31/2010 72.160 72.701
2009 08/12/2009 45.320 05/13/2009 64.760 12/31/2009 63.730 55.303
2008 01/08/2008 46.060 08/08/2008 88.770 12/31/2008 50.650 63.946
2007 11/16/2007 44.790 06/22/2007 77.840 12/31/2007 47.030 62.824
2006 04/10/2006 50.230 06/20/2006 81.210 12/29/2006 59.100 62.806
2005 11/21/2005 55.140 05/04/2005 78.820 12/30/2005 57.260 66.846
2004 01/12/2004 49.000 12/02/2004 83.210 12/30/2004 66.140 69.879
2003 01/02/2003 41.390 06/16/2003 66.460 12/31/2003 48.530 51.946
2002 09/04/2002 25.660 06/25/2002 57.240 12/31/2002 40.460 45.210
2001 11/19/2001 41.830 06/26/2001 74.240 12/31/2001 49.570 59.195
2000 11/09/2000 46.660 06/23/2000 70.310 12/29/2000 50.940 57.593
1999 01/04/1999 19.250 08/13/1999 39.660 12/30/1999 33.750 32.204
1998 12/17/1998 9.000 06/17/1998 64.000 12/31/1998 18.750 32.397
1997 12/31/1997 34.500 07/01/1997 62.000 12/31/1997 34.500 51.787

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the December Lean Hogs(CME) futures contracts.

ScenarioSM Study for April Lean Hogs(CME) as of Nov 29, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   20 23 21 16 26 25 28 21 25 16 20
Exceeded High   16 11 15 13 22 21 22 16 21 13 12
Scenario Percentage   80% 48% 71% 81% 85% 84% 79% 76% 84% 81% 60%
Avg Max Increase   7.19% 7.34% 6.93% 7.50% 7.36% 7.01% 5.70% 9.16% 10.24% 9.94% 5.21%
Max Increase   19.34% 14.70% 14.24% 13.78% 15.02% 13.13% 18.26% 30.12% 34.28% 20.52% 11.10%
Avg Days To Max Increase   21 18 19 16 20 19 18 17 17 12 8
Avg Max Decline   -1.80% -0.56% -3.28% -2.46% -2.21% -2.53% -3.37% -2.08% -2.92% -1.89% -0.59%
Max Decline   -7.98% -3.17% -6.23% -4.97% -6.61% -7.70% -7.66% -3.61% -8.38% -4.81% -1.71%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 8 12 13 9 11 12 8 8 6 1
2025 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes        
Action   No     Yes Yes Yes Not Yet        
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   24 22 24 28 19 20 17 24 20 29 25
Penetrated Low   20 15 20 17 16 16 12 16 19 23 16
Scenario Percentage   83% 68% 83% 61% 84% 80% 71% 67% 95% 79% 64%
Avg Max Decline   8.86% 9.58% 7.27% 6.51% 5.90% 5.69% 9.04% 10.03% 11.78% 10.82% 7.34%
Max Decline   23.15% 18.77% 15.50% 17.03% 10.97% 12.16% 20.96% 24.08% 24.53% 32.36% 28.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 16 15 16 14 15 13 17 22 10 7
Avg Max Increase   -2.29% -2.56% -1.96% -3.01% -2.97% -2.61% -2.34% -2.78% -2.51% -1.66% -0.54%
Max Increase   -8.69% -6.76% -7.07% -11.24% -7.40% -5.56% -7.45% -6.34% -10.80% -5.44% -2.50%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 12 6 14 10 12 8 9 13 4 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes                
Action     Yes Yes                
High 85.500 85.550 85.100 80.230 79.730 83.630 88.480 92.800        
Low 83.030 82.950 77.830 73.050 72.650 79.150 82.680 86.400        
Close/Last 84.450 84.880 80.000 77.650 79.630 82.780 88.100 90.750        

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