MRCI's Futures Highlight - RBOB Gasoline(NYM)

MRCI's Futures Highlight - RBOB Gasoline(NYM)

MRCI hopes this profile of the NYM RBOB Gasoline futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by barchart

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the NYM RBOB Gasoline futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for RBOB Gasoline(NYM) from 1/1985 - 3/2024
Calendar Year	Monday Avg Rng	Tuesday Avg Rng	Wednesday Avg Rng	Thursday Avg Rng	Friday Avg Rng	Yearly Avg Rng
1985	1.11($468)	1.16($488)	1.15($484)	1.15($482)	0.81($341)	1.08($452)
1986	1.90($798)	1.69($708)	1.69($709)	1.58($664)	1.48($623)	1.67($701)
1987	1.00($421)	0.99($414)	1.01($425)	0.84($352)	0.91($382)	0.95($399)
1988	1.24($520)	1.07($448)	1.27($534)	1.22($510)	1.03($433)	1.16($489)
1989	1.56($657)	1.25($526)	1.58($662)	1.45($611)	1.27($535)	1.42($597)
1990	3.27($1373)	2.92($1227)	2.97($1247)	2.67($1122)	2.82($1186)	2.93($1229)
1991	1.81($761)	1.67($701)	2.10($882)	1.89($795)	1.47($617)	1.79($751)
1992	1.15($482)	1.18($494)	1.19($499)	1.15($483)	1.16($489)	1.17($490)
1993	1.24($521)	1.00($420)	1.07($451)	1.13($475)	1.04($436)	1.09($460)
1994	1.61($675)	1.28($537)	1.39($586)	1.30($547)	1.29($542)	1.37($576)
1995	1.10($462)	1.05($442)	1.33($557)	1.25($526)	1.21($508)	1.19($500)
1996	1.89($794)	1.70($713)	1.85($778)	1.73($727)	1.63($685)	1.76($739)
1997	1.52($637)	1.34($563)	1.65($692)	1.57($659)	1.59($669)	1.53($644)
1998	1.60($672)	1.28($536)	1.40($587)	1.45($608)	1.25($525)	1.39($585)
1999	1.52($638)	1.44($606)	1.88($792)	1.66($699)	1.66($696)	1.64($687)
2000	2.99($1255)	2.74($1149)	3.14($1321)	3.02($1270)	2.95($1240)	2.97($1247)
2001	2.77($1162)	2.27($954)	3.29($1383)	2.61($1097)	2.70($1134)	2.73($1146)
2002	2.83($1190)	2.42($1016)	2.55($1072)	2.55($1073)	2.46($1031)	2.56($1075)
2003	3.06($1287)	3.33($1397)	3.41($1431)	3.61($1517)	3.31($1389)	3.35($1405)
2004	4.20($1762)	3.71($1557)	5.12($2152)	4.46($1874)	4.02($1689)	4.31($1810)
2005	6.32($2653)	5.56($2336)	6.50($2730)	6.92($2907)	6.02($2530)	6.26($2630)
2006	5.55($2332)	5.43($2282)	5.51($2314)	5.05($2121)	4.92($2065)	5.29($2221)
2007	6.45($2711)	6.66($2797)	6.92($2905)	6.56($2754)	5.77($2424)	6.47($2718)
2008	11.41($4790)	11.17($4692)	10.57($4438)	11.12($4670)	9.83($4130)	10.81($4542)
2009	7.40($3108)	6.29($2640)	7.48($3143)	7.22($3032)	6.89($2894)	7.05($2962)
2010	5.31($2230)	5.68($2385)	5.67($2381)	5.73($2408)	5.86($2459)	5.65($2374)
2011	8.12($3411)	8.16($3429)	8.18($3434)	8.70($3654)	7.62($3202)	8.16($3426)
2012	6.44($2706)	5.85($2457)	6.81($2859)	6.45($2709)	6.61($2777)	6.43($2701)
2013	5.90($2478)	5.73($2407)	6.32($2656)	6.17($2593)	5.69($2388)	5.96($2504)
2014	5.18($2174)	4.69($1972)	4.89($2053)	5.02($2107)	4.86($2042)	4.92($2068)
2015	6.28($2639)	5.81($2441)	6.91($2902)	6.09($2559)	5.73($2408)	6.17($2591)
2016	5.23($2198)	5.69($2391)	5.55($2333)	5.04($2116)	4.92($2068)	5.29($2223)
2017	3.88($1631)	4.38($1841)	4.59($1926)	4.25($1784)	4.13($1734)	4.25($1787)
2018	4.85($2036)	4.87($2046)	5.58($2345)	4.31($1810)	4.91($2062)	4.90($2060)
2019	5.02($2107)	4.64($1948)	5.49($2307)	4.86($2041)	4.89($2055)	4.98($2091)
2020	7.41($3113)	5.90($2478)	6.45($2710)	6.42($2695)	5.68($2388)	6.36($2673)
2021	6.93($2910)	6.05($2540)	6.57($2758)	6.43($2699)	6.19($2598)	6.42($2698)
2022	14.28($5997)	14.43($6059)	14.17($5953)	13.59($5707)	12.86($5403)	13.86($5821)
2023	8.59($3606)	7.90($3316)	9.03($3794)	7.88($3308)	7.77($3264)	8.23($3455)
2024	7.54($3166)	6.45($2711)	6.72($2822)	7.14($2998)	5.99($2517)	6.74($2832)

What other characteristics do NYM RBOB Gasoline futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for RBOB Gasoline(NYM) from 1/1985 - 3/2024
Summary Item	Monday Summary	Tuesday Summary	Wednesday Summary	Thursday Summary	Friday Summary	Yearly Summary
Range	4.40($1847)	4.17($1751)	4.54($1907)	4.33($1818)	4.12($1730)	4.31($1810)
Closed Up	838(46%)	1032(52%)	1070(54%)	1072(55%)	1066(55%)	5078(52%)
Closed Dn	985(54%)	963(48%)	919(46%)	886(45%)	857(45%)	4610(47%)
Closed Uchg	4(0%)	4(0%)	10(1%)	4(0%)	2(0%)	24(0%)
Gapped up	196(11%)	164(8%)	199(10%)	186(9%)	185(10%)	930(10%)
Un-filled Gaps Up	69(35%)	70(43%)	86(43%)	68(37%)	60(32%)	353(38%)
Gapped Down	189(10%)	182(9%)	224(11%)	146(7%)	108(6%)	849(9%)
Un-filled Gaps Down	84(44%)	59(32%)	82(37%)	45(31%)	27(25%)	297(35%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
UNCH	>0%- <1%	+1%- <2%	+2%- <3%	+3%- <4%	+4%- <5%	+5%- <6%	+6%- <7%	+7%- <8%	+8%- <9%	+9%- <10%	+10%- <20%	>+20%
24	2075	1480	792	368	200	72	44	20	5	6	14	2
	<0%- >-1%	-1%- >-2%	-2%- >-3%	-3%- >-4%	-4%- >-5%	-5%- >-6%	-6%- >-7%	-7%- >-8%	-8%- >-9%	-9%- >-10%	-10%- >-20%	<-20%
	1941	1306	649	349	193	72	43	27	8	9	9	4

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the NYM RBOB Gasoline futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Unleaded Gasoline - Dec 16, 2022
	Period Low(Jan-Dec)		Period High(Jan-Dec)		Last Day		Average
Year	Date	Price	Date	Price	Date	Price	Price
2021	01/04/2021	153.40	10/25/2021	269.10	12/31/2021	222.85	221.08
2020	04/20/2020	29.30	02/19/2020	196.50	12/31/2020	157.80	128.63
2019	01/07/2019	149.50	10/02/2019	276.80	12/31/2019	173.80	196.54
2018	12/10/2018	148.50	10/02/2018	248.10	12/31/2018	156.00	204.74
2017	01/25/2017	146.70	08/31/2017	239.50	12/29/2017	184.40	173.12
2016	02/19/2016	61.80	01/04/2016	196.70	12/30/2016	173.20	145.58
2015	01/15/2015	111.50	07/10/2015	340.10	12/31/2015	194.70	194.51
2014	12/22/2014	133.20	04/15/2014	335.60	12/31/2014	137.50	265.58
2013	12/13/2013	251.40	09/13/2013	324.70	12/31/2013	284.90	282.66
2012	12/10/2012	261.31	09/11/2012	340.00	12/31/2012	282.87	297.03
2011	01/25/2011	232.64	05/10/2011	349.47	12/30/2011	292.17	284.63
2010	08/24/2010	183.31	12/23/2010	247.01	12/31/2010	239.93	211.62
2009	01/07/2009	100.75	08/28/2009	212.05	12/31/2009	202.91	169.31
2008	12/24/2008 12/26/2008	75.52	06/06/2008	359.30	12/31/2008	97.44	248.14
2007	01/18/2007	130.78	05/17/2007	252.16	12/31/2007	247.08	208.98
2006	02/14/2006	138.12	08/02/2006	241.99	12/29/2006	164.46	182.37
2005	01/03/2005	109.65	09/01/2005	313.40	12/30/2005	177.00	156.43
2004	01/15/2004	92.97	05/17/2004	142.40	12/31/2004	108.85	118.02
2003	05/02/2003	68.31	08/21/2003	112.31	12/31/2003	95.80	88.30
2002	01/17/2002	50.10	12/27/2002	93.28	12/31/2002	84.68	72.49
2001	11/15/2001	46.22	04/20/2001	115.60	12/31/2001	54.78	73.84
2000	01/07/2000	63.80	05/30/2000	110.40	12/29/2000	75.53	90.75
1999	02/16/1999	29.30	09/29/1999	77.88	12/30/1999	67.55	54.32
1998	12/04/1998	29.07	05/01/1998 05/04/1998	51.67	12/31/1998	34.08	42.70
1997	12/31/1997	49.24	08/20/1997	76.39	12/31/1997	49.24	60.33
1996	01/25/1996	47.55	04/29/1996	77.64	12/31/1996	69.15	62.05
1995	03/10/1995	46.05	05/18/1995	66.63	12/29/1995	52.51	54.39
1994	01/03/1994	39.70	10/28/1994	61.55	12/30/1994	51.15	49.19
1993	12/13/1993	34.99	05/05/1993 05/06/1993	61.60	12/30/1993	38.55	51.54
1992	01/09/1992	49.50	06/03/1992	66.55	12/31/1992	54.00	58.79
1991	12/20/1991	53.00	01/16/1991	84.20	12/31/1991	55.25	66.44
1990	03/12/1990	52.25	08/23/1990	110.75	12/31/1990	70.35	73.23
1989	02/14/1989	46.75	04/26/1989	75.75	12/29/1989	63.50	57.10
1988	03/08/1988	42.70	07/12/1988	59.00	12/30/1988	48.50	49.27
1987	12/18/1987	41.30	07/17/1987	58.00	12/31/1987	43.60	51.69

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the March RBOB Gasoline(NYM) futures contracts.

Scenario^SM Study for May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Dec 15, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		17	28	30	32	35	36	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Higher		10	17	18	18	15	20	20	21	23	20	27
Exceeded High		8	16	16	14	13	13	17	21	21	20	19
Scenario Percentage		80%	94%	89%	78%	87%	65%	85%	100%	91%	100%	70%
Avg Max Increase		7.86%	7.84%	9.56%	8.28%	7.93%	10.14%	13.25%	12.44%	15.33%	17.63%	10.28%
Max Increase		14.52%	26.43%	52.64%	28.22%	17.98%	17.01%	24.88%	30.79%	44.10%	47.38%	22.82%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	19	18	15	15	24	17	18	19	18	19
Avg Max Decline		-0.95%	-2.31%	-1.96%	-1.19%	-1.59%	-1.69%	-1.70%	-1.94%	-4.13%	-3.64%	-2.46%
Max Decline		-3.70%	-11.73%	-12.56%	-3.56%	-7.87%	-5.12%	-8.63%	-9.31%	-17.17%	-14.16%	-8.55%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	13	9	8	5	16	5	8	9	9	3
2023 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes
Action		Yes					Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.

Tested Month

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Tested Years

Closed Lower

Penetrated Low

Scenario Percentage

71%

64%

67%

50%

79%

88%

63%

64%

65%

60%

Avg Max Decline

8.42%

9.95%

10.24%

15.19%

12.59%

14.44%

12.88%

14.96%

19.69%

14.33%

8.44%

Max Decline

13.48%

24.71%

23.72%

45.12%

51.46%

41.40%

28.66%

40.25%

72.41%

68.82%

14.32%

Avg Days To Max Decline

Avg Max Increase

-0.55%

-2.66%

-1.68%

-0.32%

-0.74%

-1.99%

-2.54%

-3.39%

-1.71%

-4.16%

-2.74%

Max Increase

-1.90%

-7.88%

-10.59%

-2.70%

-6.82%

-5.02%

-12.19%

-9.03%

-7.53%

-10.04%

-5.59%

Avg Days to Max Increase

2023 Contract Condition

Yes

Action

Yes

High

284.71

296.74

314.32

287.70

274.10

260.10

270.00

279.98

260.57

Low

262.71

272.75

278.10

248.70

249.63

233.43

245.30

242.05

225.01

Close/Last

272.11

286.78

279.18

275.48

251.66

239.23

260.54

258.18

237.75

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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