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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Cotton(ICE)

MRC Logo
MRCI's Futures Highlight - Cotton(ICE)

MRCI hopes this profile of the ICE Cotton futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by Commodity Research Bureau

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the ICE Cotton futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Cotton(ICE)
from 1/1976 - 5/2022
Calendar
Year
Monday
Avg Rng
Tuesday
Avg Rng
Wednesday
Avg Rng
Thursday
Avg Rng
Friday
Avg Rng
Yearly
Avg Rng
1976 1.66($830) 1.51($756) 1.47($734) 1.50($751) 1.34($671) 1.50($748)
1977 1.18($588) 1.15($573) 1.05($524) 1.05($527) 1.03($515) 1.09($545)
1978 0.89($443) 0.74($372) 0.79($395) 0.75($375) 0.80($398) 0.79($396)
1979 1.09($547) 1.00($498) 0.92($459) 0.87($436) 1.00($501) 0.97($487)
1980 1.97($984) 1.84($919) 1.77($887) 1.90($949) 1.87($934) 1.87($934)
1981 1.32($662) 1.11($556) 1.04($521) 1.03($514) 1.06($531) 1.11($556)
1982 0.92($458) 0.76($380) 0.74($368) 0.77($383) 0.76($381) 0.79($393)
1983 1.17($584) 1.10($548) 0.98($490) 1.00($499) 0.86($431) 1.02($509)
1984 1.02($511) 0.85($426) 0.79($395) 0.80($400) 0.96($478) 0.88($441)
1985 0.66($328) 0.65($323) 0.65($325) 0.69($346) 0.67($335) 0.66($331)
1986 1.07($537) 1.08($542) 0.98($490) 0.98($491) 0.97($485) 1.02($509)
1987 1.64($820) 1.46($728) 1.42($708) 1.44($721) 1.53($765) 1.49($747)
1988 1.25($625) 1.20($601) 1.19($593) 1.12($560) 1.18($590) 1.19($593)
1989 1.19($593) 1.01($505) 0.90($448) 0.98($491) 1.01($507) 1.01($507)
1990 1.19($597) 1.10($548) 1.11($555) 1.04($521) 1.14($568) 1.11($557)
1991 1.31($654) 1.28($641) 1.21($607) 1.23($617) 1.29($643) 1.26($632)
1992 1.07($533) 1.11($553) 1.05($523) 1.06($532) 1.17($585) 1.09($545)
1993 0.92($461) 1.02($508) 1.07($537) 0.94($471) 0.95($476) 0.98($491)
1994 1.43($715) 1.36($678) 1.28($642) 1.28($640) 1.30($649) 1.33($664)
1995 1.99($997) 2.08($1041) 1.93($965) 2.01($1003) 2.03($1016) 2.01($1004)
1996 1.14($572) 1.24($622) 1.27($635) 1.40($702) 1.20($601) 1.25($627)
1997 0.92($460) 0.90($452) 0.68($342) 0.78($390) 0.77($386) 0.81($406)
1998 1.31($657) 1.22($611) 1.09($546) 1.16($578) 1.29($647) 1.21($607)
1999 1.09($545) 1.12($559) 1.10($552) 1.17($583) 1.15($576) 1.13($563)
2000 1.27($634) 1.15($576) 1.17($585) 1.15($574) 1.28($639) 1.20($601)
2001 1.06($530) 1.05($527) 1.09($543) 1.18($591) 1.25($625) 1.13($563)
2002 1.03($513) 1.08($541) 1.03($514) 1.14($570) 1.09($543) 1.07($536)
2003 1.34($670) 1.26($629) 1.35($675) 1.35($674) 1.30($650) 1.32($660)
2004 1.57($783) 1.67($834) 1.68($839) 1.78($889) 1.51($754) 1.64($822)
2005 1.25($624) 1.26($630) 1.15($574) 1.39($696) 1.13($566) 1.24($618)
2006 0.95($477) 0.95($477) 0.89($445) 0.96($478) 0.96($478) 0.94($471)
2007 1.04($518) 1.05($525) 1.16($580) 1.12($559) 1.16($579) 1.11($553)
2008 2.32($1160) 2.23($1113) 2.15($1074) 2.15($1076) 2.11($1053) 2.19($1095)
2009 1.79($897) 1.69($843) 1.43($713) 1.59($793) 1.74($868) 1.64($821)
2010 2.46($1229) 2.69($1346) 2.66($1329) 2.66($1331) 2.72($1359) 2.64($1320)
2011 4.84($2422) 4.93($2464) 5.06($2531) 5.27($2634) 4.57($2287) 4.94($2469)
2012 1.79($895) 1.94($968) 2.02($1012) 1.90($952) 1.90($948) 1.91($955)
2013 1.45($723) 1.51($754) 1.61($807) 1.50($748) 1.53($764) 1.52($760)
2014 1.63($816) 1.49($747) 1.56($782) 1.63($813) 1.43($715) 1.55($774)
2015 1.30($649) 1.11($555) 1.10($548) 1.08($539) 1.15($576) 1.14($572)
2016 1.40($701) 1.36($680) 1.20($599) 1.40($702) 1.29($647) 1.33($665)
2017 1.47($735) 1.19($594) 1.14($571) 1.33($663) 1.12($558) 1.24($622)
2018 1.75($876) 1.62($810) 1.52($758) 1.64($818) 1.66($829) 1.63($817)
2019 1.44($719) 1.22($608) 1.08($542) 1.36($678) 1.35($677) 1.29($644)
2020 1.65($826) 1.33($663) 1.28($638) 1.24($620) 1.31($653) 1.36($678)
2021 2.19($1093) 2.14($1069) 2.05($1027) 2.43($1214) 2.13($1063) 2.19($1093)
2022 4.07($2034) 3.22($1608) 3.42($1709) 3.59($1794) 3.99($1996) 3.64($1822)

What other characteristics do ICE Cotton futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Cotton(ICE)
from 1/1976 - 5/2022
Summary
Item
Monday
Summary
Tuesday
Summary
Wednesday
Summary
Thursday
Summary
Friday
Summary
Yearly
Summary
Range 1.46($731) 1.40($702) 1.36($682) 1.41($707) 1.39($697) 1.41($703)
Closed Up 1031(47%) 1137(48%) 1221(51%) 1154(49%) 1177(51%) 5720(49%)
Closed Dn 1159(53%) 1243(52%) 1159(48%) 1187(50%) 1110(48%) 5858(50%)
Closed Uchg 13(1%) 8(0%) 19(1%) 10(0%) 18(1%) 68(1%)
Gapped up 316(14%) 279(12%) 290(12%) 327(14%) 310(13%) 1522(13%)
Un-filled Gaps Up 134(42%) 89(32%) 106(37%) 111(34%) 119(38%) 559(37%)
Gapped Down 399(18%) 395(17%) 332(14%) 323(14%) 324(14%) 1773(15%)
Un-filled Gaps Down 152(38%) 135(34%) 94(28%) 97(30%) 96(30%) 574(32%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Cotton(ICE)

UNCH
>0%-
<1%
+1%-
<2%
+2%-
<3%
+3%-
<4%
+4%-
<5%
+5%-
<6%
+6%-
<7%
+7%-
<8%
+8%-
<9%
+9%-
<10%
+10%-
<20%

>+20%
68 3240 1487 665 219 77 21 7 4 0 0 0 0
<0%-
>-1%
-1%-
>-2%
-2%-
>-3%
-3%-
>-4%
-4%-
>-5%
-5%-
>-6%
-6%-
>-7%
-7%-
>-8%
-8%-
>-9%
-9%-
>-10%
-10%-
>-20%

<-20%
3401 1497 640 208 85 20 6 1 0 0 0 0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the ICE Cotton futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Cotton: 1 1/16" str lw-md Memphis - Dec 17, 2021
  Period Low(Jan-Dec) Period High(Jan-Dec) Last Day Average
Year Date Price Date Price Date Price Price
2020 04/01/2020 44.66 12/31/2020 75.12 12/31/2020 75.12 61.13
2019 08/05/2019 54.41 04/17/2019 74.46 12/31/2019 66.30 64.58
2018 12/27/2018 69.31 06/12/2018 94.21 12/31/2018 69.45 80.73
2017 07/13/2017 65.04 05/15/2017 83.82 12/29/2017 77.88 72.01
2016 03/02/2016 55.93 08/05/2016 76.14 12/30/2016 71.15 65.61
2015 01/23/2015 56.80 06/30/2015 66.66 12/31/2015 63.28 62.39
2014 11/24/2014 57.81 03/25/2014 90.61 12/31/2014 59.77 74.49
2013 01/09/2013 71.54 08/16/2013 90.65 12/31/2013 82.64 80.97
2012 06/05/2012 62.89 01/23/2012 93.37 12/31/2012 71.89 75.56
2011 12/14/2011 82.37 03/07/2011 210.64 12/30/2011 88.55 132.81
2010 02/05/2010 62.87 12/21/2010 155.62 12/31/2010 136.34 90.33
2009 03/09/2009 35.93 12/16/2009 71.50 12/31/2009 71.10 53.37
2008 11/12/2008 35.95 03/05/2008 83.28 12/31/2008 46.02 58.69
2007 05/14/2007 42.92 12/31/2007 62.76 12/31/2007 62.76 53.84
2006 10/11/2006 45.13 02/02/2006 53.98 12/29/2006 52.44 49.31
2005 02/08/2005 40.70 10/14/2005 54.43 12/30/2005 51.19 48.09
2004 12/03/2004
12/06/2004
40.42 01/05/2004 71.30 12/30/2004 42.77 52.66
2003 06/03/2003 45.13 10/29/2003 78.48 12/31/2003 75.06 56.98
2002 05/07/2002 28.36 12/23/2002
12/24/2002
51.42 12/31/2002 49.91 37.80
2001 10/25/2001 26.27 01/30/2001 59.51 12/31/2001 30.59 40.11
2000 01/04/2000
01/05/2000
48.23 12/07/2000 64.83 12/29/2000 58.53 58.07
1999 12/27/1999 46.36 04/29/1999 62.48 12/30/1999 48.24 54.23
1998 12/23/1998
12/24/1998
57.95 07/08/1998 78.50 12/31/1998 58.44 67.83
1997 12/16/1997 62.62 07/24/1997 74.98 12/31/1997 63.65 70.02
1996 11/12/1996 68.05 05/06/1996 90.47 12/31/1996 70.90 79.56
1995 12/26/1995 76.83 05/25/1995
05/26/1995
112.84 12/29/1995 77.55 92.61
1994 01/04/1994 63.38 12/29/1994 84.61 12/30/1994 84.35 73.06
1993 01/27/1993 50.94 12/30/1993 64.38 12/30/1993 64.38 56.64
1992 01/31/1992 46.81 07/10/1992 62.40 12/31/1992 52.36 53.59
1991 12/23/1991 51.94 05/20/1991 92.05 12/31/1991 52.17 70.85

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the March Cotton(ICE) futures contracts.

ScenarioSM Study for March Cotton(ICE)
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   27 20 23 19 19 17 27 22 31 22 26
Exceeded High   20 16 17 16 12 14 18 18 27 16 17
Scenario Percentage   74% 80% 74% 84% 63% 82% 67% 82% 87% 73% 65%
Avg Max Increase   7.12% 9.74% 8.38% 8.30% 15.04% 12.09% 8.65% 10.76% 10.66% 8.98% 4.91%
Max Increase   27.66% 30.15% 28.56% 43.20% 47.88% 51.25% 32.10% 25.12% 45.72% 34.77% 16.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 16 18 18 18 19 19 21 18 10 5
Avg Max Decline   -2.34% -2.60% -1.77% -2.06% -1.88% -2.00% -1.86% -2.33% -2.86% -3.04% -0.42%
Max Decline   -9.75% -8.56% -10.52% -6.21% -5.29% -5.87% -7.74% -6.83% -11.97% -7.71% -7.38%
Avg Days to Max Decline   14 4 9 6 5 7 8 7 12 9 1
2022 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes  
Action   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes    
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   16 25 22 26 26 28 18 23 14 22 19
Penetrated Low   14 22 21 22 16 24 15 16 11 18 5
Scenario Percentage   88% 88% 95% 85% 62% 86% 83% 70% 79% 82% 26%
Avg Max Decline   9.37% 7.91% 8.66% 7.83% 8.28% 6.99% 6.14% 6.42% 8.38% 5.44% 3.28%
Max Decline   23.97% 26.76% 19.28% 25.15% 35.57% 36.47% 19.16% 15.31% 17.31% 16.07% 4.67%
Avg Days To Max Decline   21 19 14 19 18 18 13 19 19 14 3
Avg Max Increase   -2.80% -2.84% -2.28% -1.51% -2.00% -3.21% -2.13% -2.17% -2.04% -2.61% 0.41%
Max Increase   -11.54% -11.40% -10.21% -7.07% -5.90% -6.59% -6.33% -5.68% -9.86% -10.20% -0.83%
Avg Days to Max Increase   14 10 9 5 12 14 6 10 15 8 2
2022 Contract Condition     Yes           Yes      
Action     No           Yes      
High 85.83 86.42 86.09 88.25 90.45 95.39 104.20 113.18 118.50 115.33 117.68  
Low 75.34 77.57 80.80 83.28 84.81 88.70 88.36 100.38 106.41 102.50 112.76  
Close/Last 80.00 84.31 83.31 84.71 89.07 91.77 103.88 111.22 106.41 112.60 115.12  

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