MRCI's Futures Highlight

MRCI's Futures Highlight - Cotton(ICE)

MRCI's Futures Highlight - Cotton(ICE)

MRCI hopes this profile of the ICE Cotton futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by Commodity Research Bureau

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the ICE Cotton futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Cotton(ICE) from 1/1976 - 3/2024
Calendar Year	Monday Avg Rng	Tuesday Avg Rng	Wednesday Avg Rng	Thursday Avg Rng	Friday Avg Rng	Yearly Avg Rng
1976	1.66($830)	1.51($756)	1.47($734)	1.50($751)	1.34($671)	1.50($748)
1977	1.18($588)	1.15($573)	1.05($524)	1.05($527)	1.03($515)	1.09($545)
1978	0.89($443)	0.74($372)	0.79($395)	0.75($375)	0.80($398)	0.79($396)
1979	1.09($547)	1.00($498)	0.92($459)	0.87($436)	1.00($501)	0.97($487)
1980	1.97($984)	1.84($919)	1.77($887)	1.90($949)	1.87($934)	1.87($934)
1981	1.32($662)	1.11($556)	1.04($521)	1.03($514)	1.06($531)	1.11($556)
1982	0.92($458)	0.76($380)	0.74($368)	0.77($383)	0.76($381)	0.79($393)
1983	1.17($584)	1.10($548)	0.98($490)	1.00($499)	0.86($431)	1.02($509)
1984	1.02($511)	0.85($426)	0.79($395)	0.80($400)	0.96($478)	0.88($441)
1985	0.66($328)	0.65($323)	0.65($325)	0.69($346)	0.67($335)	0.66($331)
1986	1.07($537)	1.08($542)	0.98($490)	0.98($491)	0.97($485)	1.02($509)
1987	1.64($820)	1.46($728)	1.42($708)	1.44($721)	1.53($765)	1.49($747)
1988	1.25($625)	1.20($601)	1.19($593)	1.12($560)	1.18($590)	1.19($593)
1989	1.19($593)	1.01($505)	0.90($448)	0.98($491)	1.01($507)	1.01($507)
1990	1.19($597)	1.10($548)	1.11($555)	1.04($521)	1.14($568)	1.11($557)
1991	1.31($654)	1.28($641)	1.21($607)	1.23($617)	1.29($643)	1.26($632)
1992	1.07($533)	1.11($553)	1.05($523)	1.06($532)	1.17($585)	1.09($545)
1993	0.92($461)	1.02($508)	1.07($537)	0.94($471)	0.95($476)	0.98($491)
1994	1.43($715)	1.36($678)	1.28($642)	1.28($640)	1.30($649)	1.33($664)
1995	1.99($997)	2.08($1041)	1.93($965)	2.01($1003)	2.03($1016)	2.01($1004)
1996	1.14($572)	1.24($622)	1.27($635)	1.40($702)	1.20($601)	1.25($627)
1997	0.92($460)	0.90($452)	0.68($342)	0.78($390)	0.77($386)	0.81($406)
1998	1.31($657)	1.22($611)	1.09($546)	1.16($578)	1.29($647)	1.21($607)
1999	1.09($545)	1.12($559)	1.10($552)	1.17($583)	1.15($576)	1.13($563)
2000	1.27($634)	1.15($576)	1.17($585)	1.15($574)	1.28($639)	1.20($601)
2001	1.06($530)	1.05($527)	1.09($543)	1.18($591)	1.25($625)	1.13($563)
2002	1.03($513)	1.08($541)	1.03($514)	1.14($570)	1.09($543)	1.07($536)
2003	1.34($670)	1.26($629)	1.35($675)	1.35($674)	1.30($650)	1.32($660)
2004	1.57($783)	1.67($834)	1.68($839)	1.78($889)	1.51($754)	1.64($822)
2005	1.25($624)	1.26($630)	1.15($574)	1.39($696)	1.13($566)	1.24($618)
2006	0.95($477)	0.95($477)	0.89($445)	0.96($478)	0.96($478)	0.94($471)
2007	1.04($518)	1.05($525)	1.16($580)	1.12($559)	1.16($579)	1.11($553)
2008	2.32($1160)	2.23($1113)	2.15($1074)	2.15($1076)	2.11($1053)	2.19($1095)
2009	1.79($897)	1.69($843)	1.43($713)	1.59($793)	1.74($868)	1.64($821)
2010	2.46($1229)	2.69($1346)	2.66($1329)	2.66($1331)	2.72($1359)	2.64($1320)
2011	4.84($2422)	4.93($2464)	5.06($2531)	5.27($2634)	4.57($2287)	4.94($2469)
2012	1.79($895)	1.94($968)	2.02($1012)	1.90($952)	1.90($948)	1.91($955)
2013	1.45($723)	1.51($754)	1.61($807)	1.50($748)	1.53($764)	1.52($760)
2014	1.63($816)	1.49($747)	1.56($782)	1.63($813)	1.43($715)	1.55($774)
2015	1.30($649)	1.11($555)	1.10($548)	1.08($539)	1.15($576)	1.14($572)
2016	1.40($701)	1.36($680)	1.20($599)	1.40($702)	1.29($647)	1.33($665)
2017	1.47($735)	1.19($594)	1.14($571)	1.33($663)	1.12($558)	1.24($622)
2018	1.75($876)	1.62($810)	1.52($758)	1.64($818)	1.66($829)	1.63($817)
2019	1.44($719)	1.22($608)	1.08($542)	1.36($678)	1.35($677)	1.29($644)
2020	1.65($826)	1.33($663)	1.28($638)	1.24($620)	1.31($653)	1.36($678)
2021	2.19($1093)	2.14($1069)	2.05($1027)	2.43($1214)	2.13($1063)	2.19($1093)
2022	3.65($1823)	3.44($1720)	3.50($1752)	3.56($1778)	3.65($1824)	3.56($1778)
2023	1.98($992)	1.92($959)	1.91($956)	2.02($1011)	2.00($1000)	1.97($983)
2024	2.13($1063)	1.96($979)	2.26($1132)	2.02($1010)	2.49($1246)	2.17($1085)

What other characteristics do ICE Cotton futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Cotton(ICE) from 1/1976 - 3/2024
Summary Item	Monday Summary	Tuesday Summary	Wednesday Summary	Thursday Summary	Friday Summary	Yearly Summary
Range	1.50($749)	1.45($723)	1.41($704)	1.46($729)	1.44($720)	1.45($724)
Closed Up	1068(47%)	1187(48%)	1265(51%)	1202(49%)	1221(51%)	5943(49%)
Closed Dn	1204(53%)	1289(52%)	1212(49%)	1234(50%)	1160(48%)	6099(50%)
Closed Uchg	13(1%)	8(0%)	19(1%)	10(0%)	18(1%)	68(1%)
Gapped up	324(14%)	286(12%)	297(12%)	332(14%)	322(13%)	1561(13%)
Un-filled Gaps Up	139(43%)	94(33%)	109(37%)	112(34%)	124(39%)	578(37%)
Gapped Down	407(18%)	405(16%)	338(14%)	331(14%)	330(14%)	1811(15%)
Un-filled Gaps Down	156(38%)	141(35%)	98(29%)	102(31%)	97(29%)	594(33%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Cotton(ICE)
UNCH	>0%- <1%	+1%- <2%	+2%- <3%	+3%- <4%	+4%- <5%	+5%- <6%	+6%- <7%	+7%- <8%	+8%- <9%	+9%- <10%	+10%- <20%	>+20%
68	3348	1532	698	238	92	24	7	4	0	0	0	0
	<0%- >-1%	-1%- >-2%	-2%- >-3%	-3%- >-4%	-4%- >-5%	-5%- >-6%	-6%- >-7%	-7%- >-8%	-8%- >-9%	-9%- >-10%	-10%- >-20%	<-20%
	3507	1566	668	230	100	21	6	1	0	0	0	0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the ICE Cotton futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Cotton: 1 1/16" str lw-md Memphis - Dec 17, 2021
	Period Low(Jan-Dec)		Period High(Jan-Dec)		Last Day		Average
Year	Date	Price	Date	Price	Date	Price	Price
2020	04/01/2020	44.66	12/31/2020	75.12	12/31/2020	75.12	61.13
2019	08/05/2019	54.41	04/17/2019	74.46	12/31/2019	66.30	64.58
2018	12/27/2018	69.31	06/12/2018	94.21	12/31/2018	69.45	80.73
2017	07/13/2017	65.04	05/15/2017	83.82	12/29/2017	77.88	72.01
2016	03/02/2016	55.93	08/05/2016	76.14	12/30/2016	71.15	65.61
2015	01/23/2015	56.80	06/30/2015	66.66	12/31/2015	63.28	62.39
2014	11/24/2014	57.81	03/25/2014	90.61	12/31/2014	59.77	74.49
2013	01/09/2013	71.54	08/16/2013	90.65	12/31/2013	82.64	80.97
2012	06/05/2012	62.89	01/23/2012	93.37	12/31/2012	71.89	75.56
2011	12/14/2011	82.37	03/07/2011	210.64	12/30/2011	88.55	132.81
2010	02/05/2010	62.87	12/21/2010	155.62	12/31/2010	136.34	90.33
2009	03/09/2009	35.93	12/16/2009	71.50	12/31/2009	71.10	53.37
2008	11/12/2008	35.95	03/05/2008	83.28	12/31/2008	46.02	58.69
2007	05/14/2007	42.92	12/31/2007	62.76	12/31/2007	62.76	53.84
2006	10/11/2006	45.13	02/02/2006	53.98	12/29/2006	52.44	49.31
2005	02/08/2005	40.70	10/14/2005	54.43	12/30/2005	51.19	48.09
2004	12/03/2004 12/06/2004	40.42	01/05/2004	71.30	12/30/2004	42.77	52.66
2003	06/03/2003	45.13	10/29/2003	78.48	12/31/2003	75.06	56.98
2002	05/07/2002	28.36	12/23/2002 12/24/2002	51.42	12/31/2002	49.91	37.80
2001	10/25/2001	26.27	01/30/2001	59.51	12/31/2001	30.59	40.11
2000	01/04/2000 01/05/2000	48.23	12/07/2000	64.83	12/29/2000	58.53	58.07
1999	12/27/1999	46.36	04/29/1999	62.48	12/30/1999	48.24	54.23
1998	12/23/1998 12/24/1998	57.95	07/08/1998	78.50	12/31/1998	58.44	67.83
1997	12/16/1997	62.62	07/24/1997	74.98	12/31/1997	63.65	70.02
1996	11/12/1996	68.05	05/06/1996	90.47	12/31/1996	70.90	79.56
1995	12/26/1995	76.83	05/25/1995 05/26/1995	112.84	12/29/1995	77.55	92.61
1994	01/04/1994	63.38	12/29/1994	84.61	12/30/1994	84.35	73.06
1993	01/27/1993	50.94	12/30/1993	64.38	12/30/1993	64.38	56.64
1992	01/31/1992	46.81	07/10/1992	62.40	12/31/1992	52.36	53.59
1991	12/23/1991	51.94	05/20/1991	92.05	12/31/1991	52.17	70.85

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the March Cotton(ICE) futures contracts.

Scenario^SM Study for March Cotton(ICE)
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		27	20	23	19	19	17	27	22	31	22	26
Exceeded High		20	16	17	16	12	14	18	18	27	16	17
Scenario Percentage		74%	80%	74%	84%	63%	82%	67%	82%	87%	73%	65%
Avg Max Increase		7.12%	9.74%	8.38%	8.30%	15.04%	12.09%	8.65%	10.76%	10.66%	8.98%	4.91%
Max Increase		27.66%	30.15%	28.56%	43.20%	47.88%	51.25%	32.10%	25.12%	45.72%	34.77%	16.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	16	18	18	18	19	19	21	18	10	5
Avg Max Decline		-2.34%	-2.60%	-1.77%	-2.06%	-1.88%	-2.00%	-1.86%	-2.33%	-2.86%	-3.04%	-0.42%
Max Decline		-9.75%	-8.56%	-10.52%	-6.21%	-5.29%	-5.87%	-7.74%	-6.83%	-11.97%	-7.71%	-7.38%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	4	9	6	5	7	8	7	12	9	1
2022 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.

Tested Month

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Tested Years

Closed Lower

Penetrated Low

Scenario Percentage

88%

95%

85%

62%

86%

83%

70%

79%

82%

26%

Avg Max Decline

9.37%

7.91%

8.66%

7.83%

8.28%

6.99%

6.14%

6.42%

8.38%

5.44%

3.28%

Max Decline

23.97%

26.76%

19.28%

25.15%

35.57%

36.47%

19.16%

15.31%

17.31%

16.07%

4.67%

Avg Days To Max Decline

Avg Max Increase

-2.80%

-2.84%

-2.28%

-1.51%

-2.00%

-3.21%

-2.13%

-2.17%

-2.04%

-2.61%

0.41%

Max Increase

-11.54%

-11.40%

-10.21%

-7.07%

-5.90%

-6.59%

-6.33%

-5.68%

-9.86%

-10.20%

-0.83%

Avg Days to Max Increase

2022 Contract Condition

Yes

Action

Yes

High

85.83

86.42

86.09

88.25

90.45

95.39

104.20

113.18

118.50

115.33

117.68

Low

75.34

77.57

80.80

83.28

84.81

88.70

88.36

100.38

106.41

102.50

112.76

Close/Last

80.00

84.31

83.31

84.71

89.07

91.77

103.88

111.22

106.41

112.60

115.12

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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