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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Cocoa(ICE)

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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Cocoa(ICE)

MRCI hopes this profile of the ICE Cocoa futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by Commodity Research Bureau

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the ICE Cocoa futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Cocoa(ICE)
from 1/1976 - 9/2020
Calendar
Year
Monday
Avg Rng
Tuesday
Avg Rng
Wednesday
Avg Rng
Thursday
Avg Rng
Friday
Avg Rng
Yearly
Avg Rng
1976 62($618) 61($605) 58($578) 60($599) 55($545) 59($589)
1977 109($1089) 107($1068) 105($1048) 100($1001) 108($1083) 106($1057)
1978 80($803) 85($846) 82($823) 84($838) 68($677) 80($797)
1979 68($683) 68($678) 70($704) 65($650) 62($617) 67($666)
1980 64($636) 57($570) 54($537) 58($581) 59($589) 58($582)
1981 47($470) 50($500) 49($494) 53($534) 51($512) 50($502)
1982 43($430) 41($409) 42($421) 40($396) 45($450) 42($421)
1983 61($606) 59($586) 59($590) 57($573) 59($594) 59($590)
1984 60($602) 64($640) 59($593) 64($641) 63($629) 62($621)
1985 43($430) 41($406) 38($385) 38($378) 37($369) 39($393)
1986 40($404) 37($365) 36($364) 42($416) 36($364) 38($382)
1987 32($316) 31($309) 29($291) 27($268) 28($283) 29($293)
1988 32($318) 37($367) 36($355) 37($367) 37($368) 36($356)
1989 31($310) 35($346) 33($325) 32($323) 34($335) 33($328)
1990 39($387) 41($407) 35($355) 36($362) 40($401) 38($382)
1991 27($266) 25($255) 27($273) 27($270) 30($302) 27($273)
1992 25($245) 27($268) 28($279) 28($275) 26($262) 27($266)
1993 27($272) 23($234) 25($253) 26($255) 27($269) 26($256)
1994 37($373) 32($317) 35($345) 30($299) 35($345) 34($335)
1995 24($236) 25($254) 23($228) 24($242) 26($259) 24($244)
1996 22($223) 23($226) 24($240) 22($223) 22($217) 23($226)
1997 32($319) 34($343) 28($278) 35($351) 30($300) 32($318)
1998 29($289) 26($262) 27($266) 28($275) 25($251) 27($269)
1999 30($296) 33($325) 29($291) 33($330) 29($285) 31($306)
2000 22($224) 19($193) 20($202) 24($238) 22($224) 22($216)
2001 32($323) 33($329) 35($345) 36($360) 35($347) 34($341)
2002 47($472) 42($419) 44($436) 40($402) 43($434) 43($432)
2003 55($554) 57($571) 60($598) 66($659) 56($556) 59($588)
2004 41($406) 43($433) 49($492) 45($446) 46($459) 45($448)
2005 36($360) 26($264) 33($334) 33($331) 35($349) 33($327)
2006 32($321) 30($303) 28($279) 29($292) 28($283) 29($295)
2007 44($435) 46($456) 42($423) 46($464) 42($417) 44($439)
2008 101($1011) 85($853) 93($930) 104($1039) 82($825) 93($930)
2009 92($917) 80($800) 96($963) 89($895) 85($855) 89($886)
2010 74($736) 85($848) 73($734) 74($744) 85($851) 78($783)
2011 84($836) 91($911) 88($883) 85($846) 83($827) 86($862)
2012 76($760) 79($791) 71($705) 69($692) 65($645) 72($718)
2013 49($486) 46($455) 44($443) 49($494) 44($437) 46($463)
2014 47($468) 46($459) 50($495) 50($495) 50($504) 48($484)
2015 51($511) 53($531) 55($552) 51($513) 54($544) 53($530)
2016 74($737) 57($570) 61($614) 66($658) 71($705) 65($655)
2017 61($611) 58($578) 53($527) 60($598) 56($563) 57($575)
2018 83($828) 72($718) 76($756) 72($715) 73($733) 75($749)
2019 59($590) 56($559) 55($547) 58($583) 59($586) 57($573)
2020 67($670) 69($690) 60($600) 70($697) 67($665) 66($664)

What other characteristics do ICE Cocoa futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Cocoa(ICE)
from 1/1976 - 9/2020
Summary
Item
Monday
Summary
Tuesday
Summary
Wednesday
Summary
Thursday
Summary
Friday
Summary
Yearly
Summary
Range 51($507) 49($494) 49($493) 50($501) 49($493) 50($497)
Closed Up 957(45%) 1139(49%) 1179(51%) 1140(50%) 1070(48%) 5485(49%)
Closed Dn 1130(53%) 1131(49%) 1102(48%) 1084(48%) 1101(50%) 5548(49%)
Closed Uchg 36(2%) 33(1%) 32(1%) 40(2%) 44(2%) 185(2%)
Gapped up 247(12%) 260(11%) 275(12%) 271(12%) 263(12%) 1316(12%)
Un-filled Gaps Up 114(46%) 109(42%) 116(42%) 112(41%) 105(40%) 556(42%)
Gapped Down 407(19%) 427(19%) 368(16%) 322(14%) 315(14%) 1839(16%)
Un-filled Gaps Down 152(37%) 142(33%) 126(34%) 117(36%) 97(31%) 634(34%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Cocoa(ICE)

UNCH
>0%-
<1%
+1%-
<2%
+2%-
<3%
+3%-
<4%
+4%-
<5%
+5%-
<6%
+6%-
<7%
+7%-
<8%
+8%-
<9%
+9%-
<10%
+10%-
<20%

>+20%
185 2544 1563 790 369 118 58 23 9 6 2 3 0
<0%-
>-1%
-1%-
>-2%
-2%-
>-3%
-3%-
>-4%
-4%-
>-5%
-5%-
>-6%
-6%-
>-7%
-7%-
>-8%
-8%-
>-9%
-9%-
>-10%
-10%-
>-20%

<-20%
2519 1673 819 342 120 43 16 7 5 4 0 0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the ICE Cocoa futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Cocoa: Metric - Jun 08, 2020
  Period Low(Jan-Dec) Period High(Jan-Dec) Last Day Average
Year Date Price Date Price Date Price Price
2019 08/16/2019 2113 11/15/2019 2778 12/31/2019 2538 2386
2018 01/05/2018 2102 04/25/2018 3165 12/31/2018 2429 2627
2017 12/15/2017
12/18/2017
12/19/2017
12/20/2017
12/21/2017
12/22/2017
2112
2112
2112
2112
2112
2112
01/03/2017 2678 12/29/2017 2140 2295
2016 12/12/2016
12/13/2016
12/14/2016
12/15/2016
2495
2495
2495
2495
04/29/2016
05/02/2016
05/03/2016
05/04/2016
05/05/2016
3603
3603
3603
3603
3603
12/30/2016 2638 3221
2015 01/30/2015
02/02/2015
02/03/2015
02/04/2015
02/05/2015
3018
3018
3018
3018
3018
12/07/2015
12/08/2015
12/09/2015
12/10/2015
3715
3715
3715
3715
12/31/2015 3535 3398
2014 01/17/2014 2979 09/26/2014
09/29/2014
09/30/2014
10/01/2014
10/02/2014
3679
3679
3679
3679
3679
12/31/2014 3251 3353
2013 03/15/2013
03/18/2013
03/19/2013
03/20/2013
03/21/2013
2390
2390
2390
2390
2390
12/27/2013 3151 12/31/2013 3090 2673
2012 01/13/2012 2234 09/14/2012 3053 12/31/2012 2539 2662
2011 12/28/2011 2275 03/04/2011
03/07/2011
03/08/2011
03/09/2011
03/10/2011
4257
4257
4257
4257
4257
12/30/2011 2359 3345
2010 09/10/2010
09/13/2010
09/14/2010
09/15/2010
09/16/2010
3197
3197
3197
3197
3197
01/21/2010 3954 12/31/2010 3485 3482
2009 03/02/2009 2560 12/16/2009 3931 12/31/2009 3764 3157
2008 11/12/2008 2254 07/01/2008 3593 12/31/2008 3060 2868
2007 01/18/2007 1826 12/19/2007 2447 12/31/2007 2414 2188
2006 02/27/2006 1677 07/11/2006 2017 12/29/2006 1898 1782
2005 09/26/2005 1535 03/18/2005 2074 12/30/2005 1714 1695
2004 05/17/2004 1526 11/09/2004 2044 12/31/2004 1770 1730
2003 10/17/2003 1614 01/31/2003 2686 12/31/2003 1763 2003
2002 01/18/2002 1524 10/10/2002 2711 12/31/2002 2336 2012
2001 01/03/2001 925 11/29/2001 1596 12/31/2001 1565 1263
2000 12/11/2000 876 06/22/2000 1106 12/29/2000 930 989
1999 12/22/1999 988 01/15/1999 1616 12/30/1999 1017 1239
1998 12/30/1998 1583 05/14/1998 1949 12/30/1998 1583 1769
1997 02/13/1997 1412 12/15/1997 1930 12/31/1997 1802 1694
1996 03/14/1996 1393 06/18/1996 1623 12/31/1996 1534 1533
1995 12/29/1995 1419 02/24/1995 1751 12/29/1995 1419 1579
1994 02/02/1994 1403 07/15/1994 1795 12/30/1994 1582 1578

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