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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Live Cattle(CME) |
MRCI hopes this profile of the CME Live Cattle futures contract, with
its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of
long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed
to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly
and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the
underlying cash market.
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The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the CME Live Cattle futures.
The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and
further insight into the dynamics of this market. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)
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MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Live Cattle(CME) from 1/1976 - 3/2024 |
Calendar Year |
Monday Avg Rng |
Tuesday Avg Rng |
Wednesday Avg Rng |
Thursday Avg Rng |
Friday Avg Rng |
Yearly Avg Rng |
1976 |
0.890($356) |
0.865($346) |
0.903($361) |
0.816($326) |
0.750($300) |
0.845($338) |
1977 |
0.656($262) |
0.594($238) |
0.650($260) |
0.603($241) |
0.551($221) |
0.610($244) |
1978 |
1.064($426) |
1.040($416) |
1.042($417) |
1.133($453) |
1.017($407) |
1.059($424) |
1979 |
1.319($527) |
1.370($548) |
1.507($603) |
1.360($544) |
1.367($547) |
1.385($554) |
1980 |
1.274($510) |
1.125($450) |
1.111($444) |
1.071($428) |
1.114($446) |
1.138($455) |
1981 |
0.987($395) |
1.012($405) |
1.010($404) |
0.915($366) |
0.882($353) |
0.962($385) |
1982 |
0.946($379) |
0.907($363) |
0.980($392) |
0.939($376) |
0.906($362) |
0.936($374) |
1983 |
0.864($346) |
0.862($345) |
0.853($341) |
0.844($337) |
0.764($306) |
0.837($335) |
1984 |
0.713($285) |
0.704($282) |
0.670($268) |
0.788($315) |
0.695($278) |
0.714($286) |
1985 |
0.959($383) |
1.005($402) |
0.871($348) |
0.850($340) |
0.837($335) |
0.904($362) |
1986 |
1.047($419) |
1.170($468) |
1.067($427) |
0.961($384) |
0.884($353) |
1.027($411) |
1987 |
0.974($390) |
0.916($366) |
0.896($358) |
0.931($372) |
0.935($374) |
0.930($372) |
1988 |
1.077($431) |
0.871($348) |
0.926($370) |
0.916($366) |
0.861($345) |
0.928($371) |
1989 |
0.740($296) |
0.744($298) |
0.659($264) |
0.632($253) |
0.648($259) |
0.684($274) |
1990 |
0.626($250) |
0.689($275) |
0.667($267) |
0.644($257) |
0.597($239) |
0.645($258) |
1991 |
0.711($284) |
0.669($268) |
0.699($279) |
0.773($309) |
0.652($261) |
0.700($280) |
1992 |
0.703($281) |
0.738($295) |
0.676($270) |
0.534($213) |
0.522($209) |
0.635($254) |
1993 |
0.776($310) |
0.722($289) |
0.663($265) |
0.641($256) |
0.657($263) |
0.691($276) |
1994 |
0.921($368) |
0.865($346) |
0.793($317) |
0.727($291) |
0.713($285) |
0.802($321) |
1995 |
0.827($331) |
0.892($357) |
0.804($322) |
0.801($320) |
0.725($290) |
0.810($324) |
1996 |
0.913($365) |
0.791($316) |
0.895($358) |
0.837($335) |
0.765($306) |
0.839($336) |
1997 |
0.703($281) |
0.752($301) |
0.730($292) |
0.701($280) |
0.682($273) |
0.714($286) |
1998 |
0.929($372) |
0.949($380) |
0.938($375) |
0.927($371) |
0.861($344) |
0.922($369) |
1999 |
0.817($327) |
0.730($292) |
0.794($317) |
0.809($324) |
0.736($294) |
0.777($311) |
2000 |
0.535($214) |
0.600($240) |
0.651($260) |
0.604($242) |
0.575($230) |
0.594($238) |
2001 |
0.817($327) |
0.862($345) |
0.917($367) |
0.862($345) |
0.843($337) |
0.861($344) |
2002 |
0.885($354) |
0.812($325) |
0.809($324) |
0.886($354) |
0.839($335) |
0.846($338) |
2003 |
1.266($506) |
1.321($528) |
1.469($588) |
1.144($458) |
1.179($472) |
1.278($511) |
2004 |
1.319($528) |
1.431($573) |
1.624($650) |
1.527($611) |
1.329($532) |
1.450($580) |
2005 |
0.996($398) |
0.918($367) |
1.035($414) |
1.022($409) |
1.064($425) |
1.007($403) |
2006 |
1.177($471) |
0.913($365) |
1.066($427) |
1.192($477) |
1.118($447) |
1.092($437) |
2007 |
1.014($405) |
1.040($416) |
1.097($439) |
1.230($492) |
1.144($458) |
1.106($443) |
2008 |
1.495($598) |
1.416($567) |
1.545($618) |
1.702($681) |
1.543($617) |
1.540($616) |
2009 |
1.103($441) |
1.154($462) |
1.195($478) |
1.196($478) |
1.078($431) |
1.146($459) |
2010 |
1.116($447) |
1.259($503) |
1.183($473) |
1.140($456) |
1.134($454) |
1.168($467) |
2011 |
1.689($675) |
1.684($674) |
1.682($673) |
1.946($778) |
1.574($630) |
1.715($686) |
2012 |
1.220($488) |
1.342($537) |
1.398($559) |
1.470($588) |
1.313($525) |
1.350($540) |
2013 |
1.037($415) |
1.065($426) |
1.203($481) |
1.189($476) |
1.144($458) |
1.128($451) |
2014 |
1.711($685) |
1.757($703) |
2.013($805) |
2.057($823) |
1.924($770) |
1.894($758) |
2015 |
2.326($930) |
2.301($920) |
2.300($920) |
2.349($940) |
2.403($961) |
2.335($934) |
2016 |
2.222($889) |
2.000($800) |
1.936($774) |
2.057($823) |
2.113($845) |
2.062($825) |
2017 |
1.914($765) |
2.133($853) |
2.004($801) |
2.039($816) |
1.820($728) |
1.983($793) |
2018 |
1.793($717) |
1.576($630) |
1.650($660) |
1.813($725) |
1.764($706) |
1.718($687) |
2019 |
1.576($630) |
1.426($570) |
1.376($551) |
1.353($541) |
1.591($637) |
1.463($585) |
2020 |
2.288($915) |
1.999($800) |
2.003($801) |
1.920($768) |
2.055($822) |
2.049($820) |
2021 |
1.610($644) |
1.616($647) |
1.477($591) |
1.515($606) |
1.375($550) |
1.518($607) |
2022 |
1.755($702) |
1.357($543) |
1.565($626) |
1.283($513) |
1.388($555) |
1.463($585) |
2023 |
1.879($752) |
1.831($732) |
1.946($778) |
1.947($779) |
1.809($724) |
1.883($753) |
2024 |
2.131($852) |
2.274($910) |
1.567($627) |
2.440($976) |
1.988($795) |
2.079($832) |
What other characteristics do CME Live Cattle futures exhibit for various days of the
week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to
expiration for each contract. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)
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MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Live Cattle(CME) from 1/1976 - 3/2024 |
Summary Item |
Monday Summary |
Tuesday Summary |
Wednesday Summary |
Thursday Summary |
Friday Summary |
Yearly Summary |
Range |
1.171($469) |
1.148($459) |
1.169($468) |
1.166($467) |
1.114($446) |
1.154($461) |
Closed Up |
1070(47%) |
1205(49%) |
1207(48%) |
1208(49%) |
1312(54%) |
6002(50%) |
Closed Dn |
1162(51%) |
1220(49%) |
1230(49%) |
1191(49%) |
1051(43%) |
5854(48%) |
Closed Uchg |
56(2%) |
56(2%) |
52(2%) |
42(2%) |
55(2%) |
261(2%) |
Gapped up |
391(17%) |
254(10%) |
299(12%) |
269(11%) |
236(10%) |
1449(12%) |
Un-filled Gaps Up |
132(34%) |
64(25%) |
106(35%) |
98(36%) |
89(38%) |
489(34%) |
Gapped Down |
344(15%) |
253(10%) |
284(11%) |
217(9%) |
220(9%) |
1318(11%) |
Un-filled Gaps Down |
138(40%) |
83(33%) |
75(26%) |
50(23%) |
59(27%) |
405(31%) |
Daily Percent Change Summary for Live Cattle(CME) |
UNCH |
>0%- <1% |
+1%- <2% |
+2%- <3% |
+3%- <4% |
+4%- <5% |
+5%- <6% |
+6%- <7% |
+7%- <8% |
+8%- <9% |
+9%- <10% |
+10%- <20% |
>+20% |
261 |
4358 |
1265 |
344 |
29 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
<0%- >-1% |
-1%- >-2% |
-2%- >-3% |
-3%- >-4% |
-4%- >-5% |
-5%- >-6% |
-6%- >-7% |
-7%- >-8% |
-8%- >-9% |
-9%- >-10% |
-10%- >-20% |
<-20% |
4318 |
1145 |
352 |
30 |
7 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the
CME Live Cattle futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.
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The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the
December Live Cattle(CME) futures contracts.
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ScenarioSM Study for April Live Cattle(CME) as of Oct 30, 2023 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
Tested Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Tested Years |
|
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
Closed Higher |
|
23 |
27 |
32 |
19 |
23 |
27 |
31 |
29 |
28 |
28 |
23 |
Exceeded High |
|
20 |
26 |
24 |
16 |
22 |
20 |
26 |
26 |
24 |
22 |
18 |
Scenario Percentage |
|
87% |
96% |
75% |
84% |
96% |
74% |
84% |
90% |
86% |
79% |
78% |
Avg Max Increase |
|
4.25% |
3.70% |
3.09% |
3.17% |
3.72% |
4.00% |
4.90% |
4.85% |
6.28% |
6.14% |
4.63% |
Max Increase |
|
11.22% |
7.69% |
5.41% |
10.35% |
8.55% |
12.19% |
12.39% |
15.44% |
17.14% |
17.78% |
15.80% |
Avg Days To Max Increase |
|
22 |
20 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
13 |
13 |
Avg Max Decline |
|
-1.44% |
-0.96% |
-1.46% |
-1.47% |
-2.06% |
-1.25% |
-1.98% |
-1.57% |
-1.58% |
-1.47% |
-0.87% |
Max Decline |
|
-3.66% |
-3.41% |
-7.69% |
-3.52% |
-8.67% |
-3.62% |
-6.20% |
-4.00% |
-4.87% |
-4.16% |
-2.31% |
Avg Days to Max Decline |
|
10 |
7 |
8 |
18 |
12 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
10 |
8 |
2 |
2024 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Action |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Not Yet |
|
|
|
|
|
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Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close. Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
Tested Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Tested Years |
|
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
Closed Lower |
|
22 |
18 |
12 |
26 |
21 |
18 |
13 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
22 |
Penetrated Low |
|
12 |
12 |
10 |
18 |
15 |
11 |
8 |
8 |
14 |
12 |
16 |
Scenario Percentage |
|
55% |
67% |
83% |
69% |
71% |
61% |
62% |
50% |
82% |
71% |
73% |
Avg Max Decline |
|
4.72% |
4.23% |
5.34% |
4.78% |
4.40% |
3.98% |
6.23% |
7.05% |
7.41% |
9.24% |
5.56% |
Max Decline |
|
12.45% |
8.72% |
10.48% |
17.53% |
15.87% |
13.03% |
14.30% |
10.53% |
23.89% |
24.29% |
20.02% |
Avg Days To Max Decline |
|
18 |
22 |
12 |
14 |
18 |
13 |
10 |
20 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
Avg Max Increase |
|
-1.22% |
-1.46% |
-1.70% |
-1.24% |
-2.23% |
-1.51% |
-0.52% |
-2.02% |
-2.11% |
-1.86% |
-1.06% |
Max Increase |
|
-4.45% |
-4.22% |
-4.31% |
-4.40% |
-8.96% |
-3.35% |
-1.60% |
-4.32% |
-5.34% |
-4.89% |
-3.09% |
Avg Days to Max Increase |
|
8 |
13 |
4 |
9 |
13 |
10 |
1 |
14 |
8 |
9 |
5 |
2024 Contract Condition |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
Action |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
High |
179.050 |
182.885 |
188.430 |
193.330 |
193.900 |
199.830 |
197.830 |
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|
|
|
|
Low |
175.000 |
174.950 |
182.280 |
186.580 |
188.850 |
191.530 |
182.080 |
|
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|
|
|
Close/Last |
178.700 |
182.530 |
188.385 |
189.735 |
192.680 |
195.500 |
185.735 |
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