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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Wheat(CBOT)

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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Wheat(CBOT)

MRCI hopes this profile of the CBOT Wheat futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by barchart

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the CBOT Wheat futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Wheat(CBOT)
from 1/1976 - 2/2025
Calendar
Year		 Monday
Avg Rng		 Tuesday
Avg Rng		 Wednesday
Avg Rng		 Thursday
Avg Rng		 Friday
Avg Rng		 Yearly
Avg Rng
1976 8.76($438) 7.76($388) 7.50($375) 8.55($428) 7.01($350) 7.91($396)
1977 4.97($249) 4.02($201) 3.99($200) 3.50($175) 3.54($177) 3.99($199)
1978 6.95($348) 5.80($290) 6.31($316) 5.44($272) 6.21($311) 6.13($307)
1979 8.98($449) 9.16($458) 9.26($463) 9.25($463) 8.61($431) 9.05($453)
1980 11.52($576) 9.08($454) 10.23($511) 9.63($481) 8.82($441) 9.85($492)
1981 9.40($470) 7.92($396) 6.72($336) 7.27($363) 6.81($340) 7.61($381)
1982 6.70($335) 5.73($287) 5.59($280) 5.93($296) 5.98($299) 5.98($299)
1983 6.29($314) 5.98($299) 6.36($318) 6.07($304) 4.89($244) 5.91($296)
1984 4.83($242) 4.76($238) 4.72($236) 4.96($248) 4.93($246) 4.84($242)
1985 4.40($220) 4.72($236) 4.56($228) 4.75($238) 4.26($213) 4.54($227)
1986 5.97($299) 6.19($310) 5.30($265) 6.55($327) 5.00($250) 5.80($290)
1987 6.23($311) 5.10($255) 4.56($228) 4.41($221) 4.74($237) 5.00($250)
1988 8.49($424) 9.13($456) 7.33($367) 8.35($417) 7.23($361) 8.10($405)
1989 5.90($295) 4.81($241) 5.21($260) 5.03($251) 5.02($251) 5.18($259)
1990 5.02($251) 4.47($224) 4.42($221) 4.75($237) 5.07($254) 4.74($237)
1991 6.38($319) 5.57($278) 5.39($270) 4.86($243) 5.18($259) 5.47($274)
1992 7.00($350) 6.50($325) 6.76($338) 6.07($303) 6.05($303) 6.47($324)
1993 5.55($278) 5.87($293) 5.55($277) 5.99($299) 5.71($286) 5.74($287)
1994 6.29($314) 6.56($328) 6.35($317) 5.78($289) 5.56($278) 6.11($305)
1995 9.53($476) 8.00($400) 7.53($377) 8.52($426) 8.17($409) 8.33($417)
1996 12.59($629) 12.37($619) 12.44($622) 11.92($596) 11.00($550) 12.06($603)
1997 8.84($442) 7.59($380) 7.18($359) 8.05($403) 7.55($378) 7.83($392)
1998 6.27($313) 5.86($293) 6.13($306) 5.71($285) 5.57($278) 5.90($295)
1999 6.06($303) 5.75($287) 6.24($312) 5.64($282) 5.64($282) 5.86($293)
2000 5.71($285) 4.94($247) 4.94($247) 5.23($261) 5.37($268) 5.23($261)
2001 5.96($298) 5.00($250) 5.49($274) 5.86($293) 5.49($274) 5.55($278)
2002 9.16($458) 8.72($436) 7.96($398) 9.04($452) 7.90($395) 8.55($427)
2003 9.09($454) 8.51($425) 9.79($490) 8.78($439) 9.00($450) 9.04($452)
2004 10.06($503) 8.74($437) 9.23($461) 8.61($431) 9.20($460) 9.15($458)
2005 7.87($393) 7.91($396) 6.84($342) 7.28($364) 7.12($356) 7.39($370)
2006 11.18($559) 11.18($559) 12.32($616) 11.74($587) 11.16($558) 11.52($576)
2007 20.23($1011) 20.27($1013) 21.79($1090) 22.15($1107) 21.13($1056) 21.13($1056)
2008 44.84($2242) 36.94($1847) 41.51($2076) 37.96($1898) 36.34($1817) 39.48($1974)
2009 22.65($1133) 19.49($974) 19.51($975) 18.36($918) 18.14($907) 19.60($980)
2010 20.33($1016) 19.24($962) 20.96($1048) 19.99($1000) 20.98($1049) 20.30($1015)
2011 24.47($1223) 28.72($1436) 27.79($1390) 28.96($1448) 25.00($1250) 27.05($1352)
2012 20.41($1021) 20.74($1037) 20.83($1041) 21.19($1060) 22.88($1144) 21.22($1061)
2013 15.57($778) 12.57($628) 13.98($699) 14.12($706) 13.54($677) 13.93($697)
2014 17.03($851) 14.48($724) 15.64($782) 15.18($759) 15.30($765) 15.51($775)
2015 15.13($756) 14.33($717) 13.90($695) 14.14($707) 13.36($668) 14.17($708)
2016 11.08($554) 10.97($549) 10.31($516) 11.14($557) 10.76($538) 10.85($542)
2017 10.59($529) 9.56($478) 9.63($481) 10.60($530) 8.74($437) 9.81($490)
2018 13.52($676) 13.38($669) 12.99($649) 13.18($659) 13.31($666) 13.27($664)
2019 12.89($644) 11.83($591) 10.55($528) 12.45($623) 11.36($568) 11.80($590)
2020 14.71($735) 12.75($637) 14.72($736) 13.53($677) 13.38($669) 13.81($690)
2021 19.86($993) 21.46($1073) 20.80($1040) 21.27($1063) 18.57($929) 20.41($1021)
2022 41.68($2084) 40.78($2039) 36.65($1833) 37.85($1892) 36.41($1821) 38.60($1930)
2023 22.16($1108) 20.62($1031) 22.75($1137) 18.42($921) 20.16($1008) 20.80($1040)
2024 18.31($915) 15.81($790) 16.08($804) 15.41($771) 16.59($829) 16.42($821)
2025 15.33($767) 15.25($763) 14.38($719) 13.17($658) 14.97($749) 14.56($728)

What other characteristics do CBOT Wheat futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Wheat(CBOT)
from 1/1976 - 2/2025
Summary
Item		 Monday
Summary		 Tuesday
Summary		 Wednesday
Summary		 Thursday
Summary		 Friday
Summary		 Yearly
Summary
Range 12.18($609) 11.44($572) 11.54($577) 11.45($572) 11.07($554) 11.53($576)
Closed Up 1099(47%) 1187(47%) 1246(49%) 1112(45%) 1181(48%) 5825(47%)
Closed Dn 1193(51%) 1282(51%) 1241(49%) 1320(53%) 1221(50%) 6257(51%)
Closed Uchg 33(1%) 53(2%) 43(2%) 52(2%) 58(2%) 239(2%)
Gapped up 253(11%) 211(8%) 191(8%) 209(8%) 173(7%) 1037(8%)
Un-filled Gaps Up 92(36%) 47(22%) 68(36%) 53(25%) 53(31%) 313(30%)
Gapped Down 303(13%) 195(8%) 219(9%) 216(9%) 213(9%) 1146(9%)
Un-filled Gaps Down 103(34%) 62(32%) 48(22%) 69(32%) 40(19%) 322(28%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Wheat(CBOT)

UNCH		 >0%-
<1%		 +1%-
<2%		 +2%-
<3%		 +3%-
<4%		 +4%-
<5%		 +5%-
<6%		 +6%-
<7%		 +7%-
<8%		 +8%-
<9%		 +9%-
<10%		 +10%-
<20%
>+20%
239 2973 1692 680 273 109 51 19 18 8 2 0 0
<0%-
>-1%		 -1%-
>-2%		 -2%-
>-3%		 -3%-
>-4%		 -4%-
>-5%		 -5%-
>-6%		 -6%-
>-7%		 -7%-
>-8%		 -8%-
>-9%		 -9%-
>-10%		 -10%-
>-20%
<-20%
3059 2073 722 240 99 33 17 7 4 3 0 0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the CBOT Wheat futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Wheat: No 2 sft red St Louis - Jun 7, 2024
  Period Low(Jan-Dec) Period High(Jan-Dec) Last Day Average
Year Date Price Date Price Date Price Price
2023 09/29/2023 458.00 02/13/2023 802.00 12/29/2023 633.00 635.46
2022 01/06/2022 636.00 05/17/2022 1278.75 12/30/2022 777.00 879.94
2021 09/13/2021 592.00 05/07/2021 781.75 12/31/2021 660.75 677.80
2020 06/26/2020 484.00 12/31/2020 673.00 12/31/2020 673.00 575.79
2019 08/30/2019 453.00 12/31/2019 623.00 12/31/2019 623.00 516.14
2018 01/16/2018 421.00 08/06/2018 573.50 12/31/2018 536.00 499.15
2017 10/02/2017 389.00 07/05/2017 564.00 12/29/2017 432.00 435.69
2016 08/31/2016 348.00 06/08/2016 525.00 12/30/2016 398.00 431.30
2015 09/17/2015 401.00 01/06/2015 596.00 12/31/2015 420.00 480.66
2014 09/30/2014 326.00 05/06/2014 744.50 12/31/2014 594.00 577.20
2013 08/13/2013 613.00 01/30/2013 812.00 12/31/2013 640.00 699.30
2012 01/18/2012 606.50 07/19/2012 914.50 12/31/2012 768.00 750.40
2011 09/30/2011 577.50 02/09/2011 895.50 12/30/2011 632.50 705.57
2010 02/05/2010
03/31/2010		 382.50 12/29/2010 797.50 12/31/2010 780.50 541.66
2009 10/05/2009 247.50 06/01/2009 569.50 12/31/2009 408.00 404.51
2008 12/04/2008
12/05/2008		 331.50 02/27/2008 1194.50 12/31/2008 488.50 628.09
2007 04/03/2007 380.50 10/01/2007 910.50 12/31/2007 804.50 594.76
2006 08/22/2006 309.50 10/16/2006 508.50 12/29/2006 475.50 378.16
2005 09/27/2005 249.50 03/08/2005 386.50 12/30/2005 327.50 321.68
2004 08/12/2004 310.50 03/23/2004 426.50 12/30/2004 350.50 362.54
2003 07/08/2003 283.50 12/15/2003 450.00 12/31/2003 377.50 346.04
2002 05/22/2002
05/23/2002		 268.50 10/29/2002 428.50 12/31/2002 341.50 328.26
2001 03/30/2001
04/10/2001		 226.50 12/19/2001 304.50 12/31/2001 300.50 260.66
2000 08/07/2000 193.50 05/12/2000 270.50 12/29/2000 248.00 234.96
1999 07/06/1999 192.00 01/08/1999 265.50 12/30/1999 228.50 234.23

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the December Wheat(CBOT) futures contracts.

ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(CBOT) as of Jun 07, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 20 18 24 18 18 24 22 26 28 23
Exceeded High   15 15 14 18 11 12 18 13 20 14 13
Scenario Percentage   68% 75% 78% 75% 61% 67% 75% 59% 77% 50% 57%
Avg Max Increase   9.68% 12.91% 11.68% 12.55% 14.64% 19.19% 13.04% 13.12% 9.54% 9.06% 4.42%
Max Increase   44.14% 33.07% 31.79% 42.98% 33.73% 71.37% 48.19% 31.91% 25.73% 18.06% 11.18%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 17 16 13 20 17 19 15 17 12 6
Avg Max Decline   -2.04% -3.98% -3.49% -2.38% -2.46% -3.46% -2.94% -2.87% -1.76% -3.03% -1.35%
Max Decline   -7.09% -12.37% -11.59% -8.67% -8.22% -9.74% -10.13% -8.29% -5.32% -13.87% -2.77%
Avg Days to Max Decline   11 10 12 4 7 6 7 10 4 8 2
2024 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes            
Action       Yes Yes Not Yet            
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 25 27 21 27 27 21 22 19 17 22
Penetrated Low   19 23 22 17 22 22 20 16 15 13 17
Scenario Percentage   90% 92% 81% 81% 81% 81% 95% 73% 79% 76% 77%
Avg Max Decline   6.93% 6.42% 6.23% 6.57% 10.45% 9.51% 9.54% 8.67% 9.09% 8.72% 5.57%
Max Decline   13.07% 15.92% 20.00% 13.52% 27.55% 19.83% 21.01% 38.03% 27.06% 20.37% 15.79%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 19 18 21 20 19 20 17 19 12 8
Avg Max Increase   -2.21% -2.82% -3.28% -3.89% -3.02% -2.47% -4.33% -3.05% -4.69% -2.91% -1.18%
Max Increase   -6.33% -16.37% -9.68% -23.71% -11.75% -6.98% -18.64% -11.18% -12.87% -9.60% -4.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 15 12 9 9 8 12 9 10 4 2
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes          
Action   Yes Yes                  
High 682.00 667.75 644.25 618.50 675.50 759.25 742.75          
Low 645.25 621.00 579.75 565.75 592.00 641.50 670.25          
Close/Last 669.00 636.00 600.75 612.00 648.75 723.50 676.75          

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