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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Wheat(KCBT)

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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Wheat(KCBT)

MRCI hopes this profile of the KCBT Wheat futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by barchart

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the KCBT Wheat futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Wheat(KCBT)
from 1/1976 - 2/2025
Calendar
Year		 Monday
Avg Rng		 Tuesday
Avg Rng		 Wednesday
Avg Rng		 Thursday
Avg Rng		 Friday
Avg Rng		 Yearly
Avg Rng
1976 7.00($350) 6.22($311) 6.20($310) 6.75($338) 5.60($280) 6.34($317)
1977 3.35($167) 3.09($154) 3.00($150) 2.83($141) 2.71($136) 2.99($149)
1978 4.95($248) 3.83($191) 4.23($211) 3.74($187) 4.23($212) 4.18($209)
1979 6.45($323) 6.29($315) 6.54($327) 6.97($349) 6.35($317) 6.52($326)
1980 8.97($449) 7.17($359) 7.59($380) 7.46($373) 6.54($327) 7.54($377)
1981 7.41($370) 5.87($293) 5.11($256) 5.64($282) 5.14($257) 5.82($291)
1982 4.05($202) 3.65($183) 3.88($194) 3.62($181) 4.26($213) 3.89($194)
1983 3.82($191) 3.57($179) 3.91($195) 3.73($187) 2.99($149) 3.60($180)
1984 2.85($142) 2.83($141) 2.73($137) 2.74($137) 2.94($147) 2.82($141)
1985 2.76($138) 3.06($153) 3.02($151) 2.91($146) 2.85($143) 2.92($146)
1986 3.48($174) 4.22($211) 3.78($189) 4.76($238) 3.58($179) 3.96($198)
1987 4.71($236) 3.86($193) 3.49($174) 3.29($164) 3.55($177) 3.77($189)
1988 7.17($359) 7.40($370) 6.62($331) 6.55($328) 5.63($282) 6.67($333)
1989 4.59($230) 3.82($191) 3.86($193) 4.01($201) 4.29($215) 4.11($205)
1990 4.05($202) 3.70($185) 3.58($179) 3.87($194) 3.76($188) 3.79($190)
1991 5.55($278) 4.77($239) 4.70($235) 3.96($198) 4.61($230) 4.71($236)
1992 5.83($292) 5.72($286) 5.67($284) 5.19($260) 5.31($266) 5.54($277)
1993 4.36($218) 4.98($249) 4.78($239) 4.77($239) 4.74($237) 4.73($237)
1994 5.34($267) 5.63($281) 5.59($280) 5.33($266) 5.31($265) 5.44($272)
1995 8.96($448) 7.26($363) 7.25($363) 7.97($398) 7.58($379) 7.78($389)
1996 11.69($585) 11.70($585) 11.37($569) 11.90($595) 11.92($596) 11.72($586)
1997 9.10($455) 7.92($396) 7.30($365) 7.89($395) 7.66($383) 7.96($398)
1998 5.71($285) 5.37($269) 5.51($276) 4.87($243) 4.60($230) 5.21($261)
1999 5.46($273) 5.25($263) 5.41($270) 5.01($251) 4.98($249) 5.22($261)
2000 5.49($274) 4.69($234) 4.75($238) 5.16($258) 5.05($253) 5.02($251)
2001 5.54($277) 4.49($225) 4.51($226) 5.04($252) 4.55($228) 4.82($241)
2002 7.82($391) 7.87($394) 7.10($355) 7.85($393) 7.62($381) 7.65($383)
2003 7.62($381) 6.97($349) 8.00($400) 7.30($365) 7.93($397) 7.56($378)
2004 9.11($456) 7.94($397) 7.98($399) 7.16($358) 8.12($406) 8.04($402)
2005 7.73($386) 7.41($371) 6.87($343) 6.80($340) 6.67($333) 7.08($354)
2006 12.42($621) 11.68($584) 12.46($623) 11.92($596) 10.96($548) 11.88($594)
2007 19.13($957) 18.29($915) 19.37($968) 19.92($996) 18.77($939) 19.10($955)
2008 41.48($2074) 33.12($1656) 38.62($1931) 35.11($1756) 32.58($1629) 36.14($1807)
2009 21.36($1068) 18.35($917) 17.89($894) 17.20($860) 16.87($844) 18.31($915)
2010 18.22($911) 17.56($878) 19.30($965) 18.73($936) 19.39($970) 18.64($932)
2011 23.66($1183) 26.20($1310) 26.14($1307) 27.02($1351) 23.56($1178) 25.36($1268)
2012 19.46($973) 19.27($964) 19.71($985) 19.96($998) 21.28($1064) 19.94($997)
2013 14.67($734) 12.22($611) 12.97($648) 13.84($692) 12.96($648) 13.31($665)
2014 16.08($804) 14.86($743) 15.83($792) 15.26($763) 15.65($783) 15.53($776)
2015 15.26($763) 14.47($723) 13.62($681) 13.39($669) 12.93($647) 13.93($696)
2016 10.48($524) 10.29($514) 9.64($482) 10.09($505) 10.01($500) 10.09($505)
2017 10.72($536) 9.67($483) 9.66($483) 10.98($549) 9.06($453) 10.00($500)
2018 14.45($722) 14.19($709) 13.68($684) 13.82($691) 13.69($685) 13.96($698)
2019 12.58($629) 11.93($596) 10.25($513) 11.79($589) 10.75($538) 11.45($572)
2020 14.21($711) 12.56($628) 13.81($691) 13.32($666) 12.61($630) 13.30($665)
2021 20.05($1002) 21.21($1061) 20.13($1006) 20.65($1033) 18.95($947) 20.21($1010)
2022 40.89($2045) 38.48($1924) 35.82($1791) 37.04($1852) 35.42($1771) 37.45($1872)
2023 24.20($1210) 22.69($1134) 26.73($1337) 21.10($1055) 23.96($1198) 23.74($1187)
2024 18.67($934) 15.28($764) 16.39($820) 15.66($783) 16.57($828) 16.48($824)
2025 14.79($740) 15.75($788) 14.22($711) 14.56($728) 14.97($749) 14.86($743)

What other characteristics do KCBT Wheat futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Wheat(KCBT)
from 1/1976 - 2/2025
Summary
Item		 Monday
Summary		 Tuesday
Summary		 Wednesday
Summary		 Thursday
Summary		 Friday
Summary		 Yearly
Summary
Range 11.21($561) 10.48($524) 10.63($531) 10.51($526) 10.24($512) 10.61($530)
Closed Up 1075(47%) 1191(48%) 1269(50%) 1132(46%) 1203(49%) 5870(48%)
Closed Dn 1193(52%) 1248(50%) 1194(48%) 1263(51%) 1182(48%) 6080(50%)
Closed Uchg 43(2%) 67(3%) 50(2%) 72(3%) 60(2%) 292(2%)
Gapped up 234(10%) 214(9%) 227(9%) 221(9%) 185(8%) 1081(9%)
Un-filled Gaps Up 90(38%) 82(38%) 94(41%) 82(37%) 62(34%) 410(38%)
Gapped Down 364(16%) 273(11%) 264(11%) 269(11%) 276(11%) 1446(12%)
Un-filled Gaps Down 147(40%) 80(29%) 56(21%) 84(31%) 85(31%) 452(31%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Wheat(KCBT)

UNCH		 >0%-
<1%		 +1%-
<2%		 +2%-
<3%		 +3%-
<4%		 +4%-
<5%		 +5%-
<6%		 +6%-
<7%		 +7%-
<8%		 +8%-
<9%		 +9%-
<10%		 +10%-
<20%
>+20%
292 3394 1532 543 233 88 46 23 8 2 1 0 0
<0%-
>-1%		 -1%-
>-2%		 -2%-
>-3%		 -3%-
>-4%		 -4%-
>-5%		 -5%-
>-6%		 -6%-
>-7%		 -7%-
>-8%		 -8%-
>-9%		 -9%-
>-10%		 -10%-
>-20%
<-20%
3377 1803 573 203 73 36 6 7 2 0 0 0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the KCBT Wheat futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Wheat: No 2 hard KC - Jun 7, 2024
  Period Low(Jan-Dec) Period High(Jan-Dec) Last Day Average
Year Date Price Date Price Date Price Price
2023 11/27/2023 623.00 02/13/2023 966.25 12/29/2023 677.00 821.24
2022 01/14/2022 766.50 05/17/2022 1372.75 12/30/2022 943.00 1006.16
2021 04/06/2021 585.50 11/23/2021 894.75 12/31/2021 827.50 711.73
2020 03/16/2020 428.75 12/31/2020 628.50 12/31/2020 628.50 498.63
2019 09/03/2019 374.75 01/04/2019 531.00 12/31/2019 483.50 443.62
2018 01/16/2018 412.00 08/06/2018 616.00 12/31/2018 503.75 507.29
2017 08/28/2017 346.75 07/05/2017 531.50 12/29/2017 410.25 395.29
2016 08/30/2016 309.75 04/20/2016 473.25 12/30/2016 351.50 389.10
2015 11/27/2015 412.00 06/30/2015 612.25 12/31/2015 443.50 488.26
2014 10/01/2014 417.00 05/06/2014 741.50 12/31/2014 514.75 548.84
2013 12/30/2013 525.25 01/18/2013 770.75 12/31/2013 530.00 646.54
2012 05/11/2012 548.00 07/20/2012 929.00 12/31/2012 768.00 736.84
2011 12/08/2011 580.50 05/27/2011 1013.00 12/30/2011 664.00 777.43
2010 06/09/2010 405.00 12/28/2010 817.50 12/31/2010 808.00 570.50
2009 09/14/2009 421.50 06/01/2009 729.00 12/31/2009 510.25 558.23
2008 10/24/2008 486.50 02/27/2008 1407.00 12/31/2008 657.00 859.05
2007 04/03/2007 496.75 12/14/2007 998.00 12/31/2007 911.50 677.20
2006 03/27/2006 421.00 10/16/2006 578.00 12/29/2006 541.75 502.44
2005 04/15/2005 358.00 12/28/2005 465.75 12/30/2005 462.50 405.72
2004 08/13/2004 350.25 03/22/2004 458.75 12/30/2004 412.00 406.18
2003 07/08/2003 298.00 12/03/2003 444.00 12/31/2003 417.25 378.42
2002 04/26/2002 305.50 09/09/2002 536.25 12/31/2002 415.25 392.94
2001 08/03/2001 302.00 03/13/2001 358.50 12/31/2001 318.50 328.47
2000 04/27/2000 258.25 10/11/2000 355.00 12/29/2000 350.50 294.75
1999 07/09/1999 238.75 01/08/1999 329.25 12/30/1999 265.75 277.83

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the December Wheat(KCBT) futures contracts.

ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(KCBT) as of Jun 07, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   40 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 20 19 22 21 16 23 20 28 24 22
Exceeded High   15 12 17 17 13 10 17 13 24 15 13
Scenario Percentage   68% 60% 89% 77% 62% 63% 74% 65% 86% 63% 59%
Avg Max Increase   10.34% 14.87% 11.00% 13.84% 16.13% 19.10% 13.84% 12.93% 7.77% 8.55% 3.80%
Max Increase   36.74% 37.67% 34.95% 40.64% 35.83% 63.13% 47.21% 30.80% 21.25% 16.18% 7.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 16 14 16 17 16 21 14 16 7 6
Avg Max Decline   -1.64% -3.47% -3.44% -2.24% -1.96% -2.60% -2.65% -1.96% -1.79% -3.03% -0.96%
Max Decline   -4.43% -11.15% -14.29% -9.64% -6.20% -11.54% -8.20% -5.86% -4.45% -11.19% -1.87%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 12 11 5 7 5 9 7 4 10 2
2024 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes            
Action       Yes Yes Not Yet            
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   40 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   18 24 25 23 24 29 22 25 17 21 23
Penetrated Low   15 22 18 21 22 25 18 18 14 16 14
Scenario Percentage   83% 92% 72% 91% 92% 86% 82% 72% 82% 76% 61%
Avg Max Decline   7.13% 5.88% 6.06% 6.64% 8.80% 8.99% 9.35% 8.05% 8.40% 7.84% 5.36%
Max Decline   12.15% 14.83% 18.60% 22.51% 19.95% 20.10% 20.14% 36.72% 25.42% 15.75% 15.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 19 17 19 19 15 15 18 17 13 8
Avg Max Increase   -2.20% -3.12% -2.53% -3.47% -3.38% -2.38% -3.34% -1.43% -1.93% -2.84% -0.77%
Max Increase   -5.80% -13.04% -6.90% -23.37% -19.82% -7.08% -16.86% -5.50% -6.85% -8.90% -2.23%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 17 11 10 10 7 7 5 7 5 2
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes          
Action   Yes Yes                  
High 702.75 670.00 651.50 624.75 692.75 775.50 760.25          
Low 651.25 623.25 578.25 569.75 588.00 657.75 689.75          
Close/Last 670.00 642.75 600.00 609.00 668.75 741.75 699.50          

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