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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Gasoline(NYM)

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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Gasoline(NYM)

MRCI hopes this profile of the NYM Gasoline futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by barchart

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the NYM Gasoline futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
from 1/1985 - 2/2025
Calendar
Year		 Monday
Avg Rng		 Tuesday
Avg Rng		 Wednesday
Avg Rng		 Thursday
Avg Rng		 Friday
Avg Rng		 Yearly
Avg Rng
1985 1.11($468) 1.16($488) 1.15($484) 1.15($482) 0.81($341) 1.08($452)
1986 1.90($798) 1.69($708) 1.69($709) 1.58($664) 1.48($623) 1.67($701)
1987 1.00($421) 0.99($414) 1.01($425) 0.84($352) 0.91($382) 0.95($399)
1988 1.24($520) 1.07($448) 1.27($534) 1.22($510) 1.03($433) 1.16($489)
1989 1.56($657) 1.25($526) 1.58($662) 1.45($611) 1.27($535) 1.42($597)
1990 3.27($1373) 2.92($1227) 2.97($1247) 2.67($1122) 2.82($1186) 2.93($1229)
1991 1.81($761) 1.67($701) 2.10($882) 1.89($795) 1.47($617) 1.79($751)
1992 1.15($482) 1.18($494) 1.19($499) 1.15($483) 1.16($489) 1.17($490)
1993 1.24($521) 1.00($420) 1.07($451) 1.13($475) 1.04($436) 1.09($460)
1994 1.61($675) 1.28($537) 1.39($586) 1.30($547) 1.29($542) 1.37($576)
1995 1.10($462) 1.05($442) 1.33($557) 1.25($526) 1.21($508) 1.19($500)
1996 1.89($794) 1.70($713) 1.85($778) 1.73($727) 1.63($685) 1.76($739)
1997 1.52($637) 1.34($563) 1.65($692) 1.57($659) 1.59($669) 1.53($644)
1998 1.60($672) 1.28($536) 1.40($587) 1.45($608) 1.25($525) 1.39($585)
1999 1.52($638) 1.44($606) 1.88($792) 1.66($699) 1.66($696) 1.64($687)
2000 2.99($1255) 2.74($1149) 3.14($1321) 3.02($1270) 2.95($1240) 2.97($1247)
2001 2.77($1162) 2.27($954) 3.29($1383) 2.61($1097) 2.70($1134) 2.73($1146)
2002 2.83($1190) 2.42($1016) 2.55($1072) 2.55($1073) 2.46($1031) 2.56($1075)
2003 3.06($1287) 3.33($1397) 3.41($1431) 3.61($1517) 3.31($1389) 3.35($1405)
2004 4.20($1762) 3.71($1557) 5.12($2152) 4.46($1874) 4.02($1689) 4.31($1810)
2005 6.32($2653) 5.56($2336) 6.50($2730) 6.92($2907) 6.02($2530) 6.26($2630)
2006 5.55($2332) 5.43($2282) 5.51($2314) 5.05($2121) 4.92($2065) 5.29($2221)
2007 6.45($2711) 6.66($2797) 6.92($2905) 6.56($2754) 5.77($2424) 6.47($2718)
2008 11.41($4790) 11.17($4692) 10.57($4438) 11.12($4670) 9.83($4130) 10.81($4542)
2009 7.40($3108) 6.29($2640) 7.48($3143) 7.22($3032) 6.89($2894) 7.05($2962)
2010 5.31($2230) 5.68($2385) 5.67($2381) 5.73($2408) 5.86($2459) 5.65($2374)
2011 8.12($3411) 8.16($3429) 8.18($3434) 8.70($3654) 7.62($3202) 8.16($3426)
2012 6.44($2706) 5.85($2457) 6.81($2859) 6.45($2709) 6.61($2777) 6.43($2701)
2013 5.90($2478) 5.73($2407) 6.32($2656) 6.17($2593) 5.69($2388) 5.96($2504)
2014 5.18($2174) 4.69($1972) 4.89($2053) 5.02($2107) 4.86($2042) 4.92($2068)
2015 6.28($2639) 5.81($2441) 6.91($2902) 6.09($2559) 5.73($2408) 6.17($2591)
2016 5.23($2198) 5.69($2391) 5.55($2333) 5.04($2116) 4.92($2068) 5.29($2223)
2017 3.88($1631) 4.38($1841) 4.59($1926) 4.25($1784) 4.13($1734) 4.25($1787)
2018 4.85($2036) 4.87($2046) 5.58($2345) 4.31($1810) 4.91($2062) 4.90($2060)
2019 5.02($2107) 4.64($1948) 5.49($2307) 4.86($2041) 4.89($2055) 4.98($2091)
2020 7.41($3113) 5.90($2478) 6.45($2710) 6.42($2695) 5.68($2388) 6.36($2673)
2021 6.93($2910) 6.05($2540) 6.57($2758) 6.43($2699) 6.19($2598) 6.42($2698)
2022 14.28($5997) 14.43($6059) 14.17($5953) 13.59($5707) 12.86($5403) 13.86($5821)
2023 8.59($3606) 7.90($3316) 9.03($3794) 7.88($3308) 7.77($3264) 8.23($3455)
2024 6.49($2726) 6.26($2629) 6.22($2611) 6.04($2535) 5.57($2340) 6.11($2567)
2025 5.42($2276) 5.05($2119) 5.27($2215) 5.10($2143) 4.50($1890) 5.04($2116)

What other characteristics do NYM Gasoline futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
from 1/1985 - 2/2025
Summary
Item		 Monday
Summary		 Tuesday
Summary		 Wednesday
Summary		 Thursday
Summary		 Friday
Summary		 Yearly
Summary
Range 4.44($1863) 4.21($1769) 4.57($1919) 4.36($1830) 4.15($1742) 4.34($1825)
Closed Up 859(46%) 1054(51%) 1090(53%) 1106(55%) 1084(55%) 5193(52%)
Closed Dn 1008(54%) 989(48%) 944(46%) 897(45%) 887(45%) 4725(48%)
Closed Uchg 4(0%) 4(0%) 10(0%) 5(0%) 2(0%) 25(0%)
Gapped up 198(11%) 165(8%) 199(10%) 188(9%) 186(9%) 936(9%)
Un-filled Gaps Up 69(35%) 70(42%) 86(43%) 68(36%) 60(32%) 353(38%)
Gapped Down 191(10%) 183(9%) 224(11%) 147(7%) 108(5%) 853(9%)
Un-filled Gaps Down 84(44%) 59(32%) 82(37%) 45(31%) 27(25%) 297(35%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for RBOB Gasoline(NYM)

UNCH		 >0%-
<1%		 +1%-
<2%		 +2%-
<3%		 +3%-
<4%		 +4%-
<5%		 +5%-
<6%		 +6%-
<7%		 +7%-
<8%		 +8%-
<9%		 +9%-
<10%		 +10%-
<20%
>+20%
25 2132 1518 807 370 202 73 44 20 5 6 14 2
<0%-
>-1%		 -1%-
>-2%		 -2%-
>-3%		 -3%-
>-4%		 -4%-
>-5%		 -5%-
>-6%		 -6%-
>-7%		 -7%-
>-8%		 -8%-
>-9%		 -9%-
>-10%		 -10%-
>-20%
<-20%
1993 1343 666 355 194 74 43 27 8 9 9 4

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the NYM Gasoline futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Unleaded Gasoline - Feb 28, 2025
  Period Low(Jan-Dec) Period High(Jan-Dec) Last Day Average
Year Date Price Date Price Date Price Price
2024 11/29/2024 189.95 04/04/2024 339.70 12/31/2024 213.00 246.49
2023 12/12/2023 205.10 09/27/2023 446.70 12/29/2023 248.90 283.06
2022 12/07/2022 187.30 10/03/2022 496.80 12/30/2022 245.95 330.26
2021 01/04/2021 153.40 10/25/2021 269.10 12/31/2021 243.90 221.49
2020 04/20/2020 29.30 02/19/2020 196.50 12/31/2020 157.80 128.63
2019 01/07/2019 149.50 10/02/2019 276.80 12/31/2019 173.80 196.54
2018 12/10/2018 148.50 10/02/2018 248.10 12/31/2018 156.00 204.74
2017 01/25/2017 146.70 08/31/2017 239.50 12/29/2017 184.40 173.12
2016 02/19/2016 61.80 01/04/2016 196.70 12/30/2016 173.20 145.58
2015 01/15/2015 111.50 07/10/2015 340.10 12/31/2015 194.70 194.51
2014 12/22/2014 133.20 04/15/2014 335.60 12/31/2014 137.50 265.58
2013 12/13/2013 251.40 09/13/2013 324.70 12/31/2013 284.90 282.66
2012 12/10/2012 261.31 09/11/2012 340.00 12/31/2012 282.87 297.03
2011 01/25/2011 232.64 05/10/2011 349.47 12/30/2011 292.17 284.63
2010 08/24/2010 183.31 12/23/2010 247.01 12/31/2010 239.93 211.62
2009 01/07/2009 100.75 08/28/2009 212.05 12/31/2009 202.91 169.31
2008 12/24/2008
12/26/2008		 75.52 06/06/2008 359.30 12/31/2008 97.44 248.14
2007 01/18/2007 130.78 05/17/2007 252.16 12/31/2007 247.08 208.98
2006 02/14/2006 138.12 08/02/2006 241.99 12/29/2006 164.46 182.37
2005 01/03/2005 109.65 09/01/2005 313.40 12/30/2005 177.00 156.43
2004 01/15/2004 92.97 05/17/2004 142.40 12/31/2004 108.85 118.02
2003 05/02/2003 68.31 08/21/2003 112.31 12/31/2003 95.80 88.30
2002 01/17/2002 50.10 12/27/2002 93.28 12/31/2002 84.68 72.49
2001 11/15/2001 46.22 04/20/2001 115.60 12/31/2001 54.78 73.84
2000 01/07/2000 63.80 05/30/2000 110.40 12/29/2000 75.53 90.75
1999 02/16/1999 29.30 09/29/1999 77.88 12/30/1999 67.55 54.32
1998 12/04/1998 29.07 05/01/1998
05/04/1998		 51.67 12/31/1998 34.08 42.70

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the December Gasoline(NYM) futures contracts.

ScenarioSM Study for July RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Feb 28, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   19 28 31 32 36 39 39 39 39 39 39
Closed Higher   12 15 13 18 19 22 26 20 30 29 21
Exceeded High   10 11 11 13 17 21 22 20 26 24 13
Scenario Percentage   83% 73% 85% 72% 89% 95% 85% 100% 87% 83% 62%
Avg Max Increase   5.52% 6.65% 8.07% 7.88% 11.37% 10.57% 14.52% 14.90% 12.44% 13.34% 8.14%
Max Increase   12.65% 13.21% 17.64% 13.11% 21.01% 28.47% 37.05% 30.89% 33.66% 64.48% 23.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 16 15 21 18 19 19 21 16 14 18
Avg Max Decline   -2.44% -1.73% -0.99% -1.63% -1.87% -1.75% -3.79% -2.63% -2.97% -2.30% -2.69%
Max Decline   -12.09% -3.52% -6.49% -7.78% -11.81% -8.15% -17.05% -13.80% -13.26% -9.95% -6.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline   10 9 4 9 6 8 9 10 5 6 7
2025 Contract Condition         Yes   Yes Yes        
Action         No   Yes Not Yet        
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   19 28 31 32 36 39 39 39 39 39 39
Closed Lower   7 13 17 14 17 17 13 19 9 10 18
Penetrated Low   6 8 13 12 15 9 8 11 5 8 14
Scenario Percentage   86% 62% 76% 86% 88% 53% 62% 58% 56% 80% 78%
Avg Max Decline   11.08% 13.46% 12.33% 14.02% 11.27% 15.28% 20.34% 13.72% 9.42% 9.36% 9.07%
Max Decline   23.47% 44.50% 49.69% 39.46% 27.20% 39.30% 65.38% 60.95% 15.58% 17.72% 25.46%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 20 14 15 16 15 15 15 4 13 16
Avg Max Increase   -0.15% -1.42% -0.77% -1.68% -1.34% -2.66% -1.87% -3.60% -1.64% -2.93% -1.39%
Max Increase   -3.70% -8.90% -6.35% -4.82% -6.52% -5.94% -6.87% -9.55% -4.71% -7.51% -5.48%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 8 10 4 8 8 8 14 3 9 5
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes      
Action   Yes Yes No   Yes     Not Yet      
High 235.52 239.60 229.52 217.72 229.52 220.58 218.94 235.51 233.23      
Low 221.57 222.32 213.65 199.83 205.48 208.84 208.37 218.97 215.76      
Close/Last 233.31 228.76 217.85 209.21 212.30 209.51 218.53 224.84 219.28      

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