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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Coffee "C"(ICE)

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MRCI's Futures Highlight - Coffee "C"(ICE)

MRCI hopes this profile of the ICE Coffee "C" futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by Commodity Research Bureau

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the ICE Coffee "C" futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Coffee "C"(ICE)
from 1/1976 - 5/2022
Calendar
Year
Monday
Avg Rng
Tuesday
Avg Rng
Wednesday
Avg Rng
Thursday
Avg Rng
Friday
Avg Rng
Yearly
Avg Rng
1976 2.67($1000) 2.84($1067) 2.96($1111) 2.82($1058) 2.79($1045) 2.82($1058)
1977 7.30($2738) 7.64($2865) 6.88($2580) 7.99($2996) 6.77($2539) 7.31($2743)
1978 4.42($1657) 4.49($1683) 4.06($1522) 3.65($1368) 3.76($1412) 4.07($1525)
1979 3.04($1140) 2.84($1065) 2.91($1090) 3.24($1215) 3.65($1369) 3.14($1176)
1980 4.25($1593) 4.33($1623) 3.57($1340) 3.76($1411) 3.92($1470) 3.96($1485)
1981 3.33($1250) 3.31($1241) 3.57($1340) 3.67($1377) 3.57($1339) 3.49($1309)
1982 2.82($1059) 3.18($1191) 3.00($1126) 3.10($1162) 2.88($1079) 3.00($1125)
1983 1.72($644) 1.58($591) 1.67($625) 1.63($612) 1.55($581) 1.63($610)
1984 1.75($658) 1.87($700) 2.04($767) 1.78($667) 1.84($692) 1.86($697)
1985 2.58($967) 2.61($978) 2.47($927) 2.84($1065) 2.85($1067) 2.67($1000)
1986 7.10($2662) 7.94($2979) 7.50($2813) 6.95($2605) 6.61($2479) 7.23($2713)
1987 3.02($1131) 2.66($999) 2.22($834) 2.29($858) 2.21($829) 2.48($930)
1988 2.42($909) 2.48($930) 2.36($884) 2.26($848) 2.29($859) 2.36($886)
1989 2.92($1093) 3.17($1189) 3.14($1179) 2.81($1055) 2.95($1107) 3.00($1125)
1990 2.09($782) 2.02($759) 2.20($826) 2.24($841) 2.35($881) 2.18($818)
1991 1.66($623) 1.58($591) 1.70($637) 1.62($609) 1.85($693) 1.68($630)
1992 1.92($719) 1.92($718) 1.86($699) 1.69($633) 1.85($694) 1.85($692)
1993 2.49($933) 2.69($1010) 2.23($835) 2.21($828) 2.21($830) 2.37($888)
1994 8.43($3160) 5.81($2177) 7.28($2731) 5.40($2024) 5.57($2088) 6.47($2425)
1995 4.49($1683) 4.69($1758) 4.51($1691) 4.33($1622) 4.69($1758) 4.54($1702)
1996 4.33($1624) 3.56($1336) 3.47($1302) 3.64($1366) 3.47($1299) 3.69($1382)
1997 9.24($3466) 9.54($3577) 9.60($3599) 9.80($3675) 7.88($2956) 9.23($3461)
1998 4.62($1733) 5.02($1881) 4.01($1503) 4.28($1603) 4.59($1722) 4.50($1687)
1999 4.83($1813) 4.61($1730) 4.31($1617) 4.37($1639) 3.66($1373) 4.36($1635)
2000 3.81($1430) 3.03($1135) 2.88($1081) 3.20($1199) 2.83($1062) 3.14($1176)
2001 1.97($739) 1.66($623) 1.67($625) 1.76($660) 1.87($703) 1.78($669)
2002 2.10($788) 1.91($716) 1.78($668) 1.86($696) 1.77($662) 1.88($706)
2003 1.98($742) 1.71($640) 1.72($643) 1.90($711) 1.53($575) 1.77($662)
2004 2.80($1050) 2.31($867) 2.44($913) 2.32($871) 2.16($808) 2.40($901)
2005 3.99($1497) 3.40($1276) 3.70($1388) 3.38($1266) 3.31($1242) 3.55($1331)
2006 3.12($1170) 2.71($1015) 2.64($991) 2.84($1064) 2.70($1011) 2.79($1048)
2007 3.08($1157) 2.44($916) 2.35($883) 2.68($1004) 2.42($906) 2.59($971)
2008 4.60($1723) 3.96($1485) 3.75($1408) 4.41($1653) 4.11($1540) 4.15($1558)
2009 4.17($1566) 3.30($1237) 3.18($1192) 3.55($1329) 3.75($1407) 3.58($1342)
2010 4.71($1768) 5.15($1930) 4.43($1661) 4.71($1768) 5.03($1884) 4.81($1802)
2011 7.46($2799) 7.33($2748) 7.47($2802) 7.33($2748) 7.81($2931) 7.48($2806)
2012 5.05($1894) 5.43($2035) 5.17($1937) 5.22($1957) 4.57($1713) 5.09($1907)
2013 3.00($1123) 3.10($1161) 3.18($1192) 3.19($1198) 3.15($1180) 3.12($1171)
2014 7.32($2745) 6.81($2555) 7.31($2741) 6.65($2493) 6.57($2463) 6.93($2599)
2015 4.71($1766) 4.41($1653) 4.61($1730) 4.47($1675) 4.34($1626) 4.51($1690)
2016 4.02($1508) 3.40($1274) 3.50($1313) 4.06($1523) 3.62($1356) 3.71($1392)
2017 3.14($1176) 3.00($1125) 3.17($1188) 3.22($1209) 3.08($1156) 3.12($1171)
2018 2.76($1037) 2.57($964) 2.44($915) 2.59($969) 2.61($980) 2.59($972)
2019 3.49($1307) 3.16($1186) 2.84($1065) 2.95($1106) 2.84($1064) 3.05($1144)
2020 4.43($1662) 3.64($1366) 3.86($1448) 3.79($1423) 4.14($1552) 3.96($1487)
2021 6.14($2301) 5.50($2062) 4.97($1865) 5.25($1969) 5.94($2228) 5.55($2080)
2022 7.10($2662) 6.19($2322) 7.63($2861) 6.81($2553) 6.59($2472) 6.86($2573)

What other characteristics do ICE Coffee "C" futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Coffee "C"(ICE)
from 1/1976 - 5/2022
Summary
Item
Monday
Summary
Tuesday
Summary
Wednesday
Summary
Thursday
Summary
Friday
Summary
Yearly
Summary
Range 3.96($1486) 3.77($1414) 3.70($1389) 3.71($1392) 3.63($1363) 3.75($1408)
Closed Up 1035(47%) 1193(50%) 1203(50%) 1209(51%) 1102(48%) 5742(49%)
Closed Dn 1141(52%) 1168(49%) 1168(49%) 1121(48%) 1176(51%) 5774(50%)
Closed Uchg 23(1%) 26(1%) 27(1%) 18(1%) 18(1%) 112(1%)
Gapped up 249(11%) 254(11%) 250(10%) 244(10%) 268(12%) 1265(11%)
Un-filled Gaps Up 119(48%) 107(42%) 89(36%) 91(37%) 103(38%) 509(40%)
Gapped Down 398(18%) 364(15%) 326(14%) 293(12%) 286(12%) 1667(14%)
Un-filled Gaps Down 149(37%) 97(27%) 85(26%) 68(23%) 71(25%) 470(28%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Coffee "C"(ICE)

UNCH
>0%-
<1%
+1%-
<2%
+2%-
<3%
+3%-
<4%
+4%-
<5%
+5%-
<6%
+6%-
<7%
+7%-
<8%
+8%-
<9%
+9%-
<10%
+10%-
<20%

>+20%
112 2578 1584 813 379 191 88 44 25 8 9 20 3
<0%-
>-1%
-1%-
>-2%
-2%-
>-3%
-3%-
>-4%
-4%-
>-5%
-5%-
>-6%
-6%-
>-7%
-7%-
>-8%
-8%-
>-9%
-9%-
>-10%
-10%-
>-20%

<-20%
2562 1579 850 429 187 71 45 20 14 3 14 0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the ICE Coffee "C" futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Coffee: Brazilian NY - Feb 4, 2022
  Period Low(Jan-Dec) Period High(Jan-Dec) Last Day Average
Year Date Price Date Price Date Price Price
2021 01/07/2021 169.25 11/26/2021 301.04 12/31/2021 285.48 219.68
2020 02/04/2020 137.53 09/08/2020 181.51 12/31/2020 172.18 157.65
2019 05/09/2019 119.85 12/17/2019 170.22 12/31/2019 162.14 133.51
2018 09/19/2018 121.80 01/05/2018 148.40 12/31/2018 127.19 136.84
2017 12/13/2017 137.28 01/24/2017 172.76 12/29/2017 143.70 152.35
2016 01/21/2016 130.52 11/08/2016 190.07 12/30/2016 157.69 155.65
2015 11/16/2015 132.04 01/15/2015 195.72 12/31/2015 141.27 151.63
2014 01/02/2014 126.80 10/10/2014 239.35 12/31/2014 182.92 197.98
2013 12/10/2013 119.63 01/22/2013 173.77 12/31/2013 127.97 147.85
2012 12/17/2012 160.38 01/12/2012 265.05 12/31/2012 161.02 201.93
2011 12/19/2011 243.23 05/03/2011 332.07 12/30/2011 255.00 283.75
2010 04/28/2010 194.51 12/29/2010 281.54 12/31/2010 278.19 225.87
2009 01/02/2009
01/05/2009
130.55 05/28/2009 225.97 12/31/2009 192.46 177.48
2008 12/08/2008 124.35 03/04/2008 172.75 12/31/2008 130.55 144.05
2007 05/04/2007
05/07/2007
112.07 10/15/2007 144.14 12/31/2007 141.48 125.56
2006 04/17/2006 102.89 12/15/2006
12/26/2006
134.12 12/29/2006 131.32 116.60
2005 11/25/2005 97.99 03/11/2005 147.75 12/30/2005 115.98 116.68
2004 01/02/2004
01/05/2004
57.00 12/21/2004 116.00 12/31/2004 95.75 83.36
2003 11/28/2003 53.00 02/11/2003
09/12/2003
74.50 12/31/2003 70.00 67.21
2002 01/21/2002 43.25 11/21/2002 76.50 12/31/2002 66.25 65.04
2001 10/23/2001 35.50 05/07/2001
05/08/2001
82.50 12/31/2001 41.25 54.80
2000 12/14/2000 63.50 01/26/2000
01/27/2000
01/28/2000
132.50 12/29/2000 66.50 93.06
1999 10/01/1999 80.75 12/03/1999 141.00 12/30/1999 125.50 104.26
1998 09/18/1998 106.50 02/05/1998 193.50 12/30/1998 117.00 137.88
1997 01/06/1997 134.00 05/29/1997 359.00 12/31/1997 168.00 205.08
1996 01/02/1996 95.00 08/26/1996 151.50 12/31/1996 136.00 128.51
1995 12/28/1995 97.50 03/10/1995 181.00 12/29/1995 98.50 144.47
1994 01/03/1994
01/04/1994
01/05/1994
01/11/1994
61.50 07/12/1994
07/13/1994
247.00 12/30/1994 160.25 137.81
1993 04/21/1993
04/22/1993
47.00 09/17/1993 72.75 12/30/1993 61.50 58.92
1992 08/17/1992 35.00 12/21/1992
12/22/1992
69.50 12/31/1992 66.00 49.51

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the March Coffee "C"(ICE) futures contracts.

ScenarioSM Study for July Coffee "C"(ICE) as of Feb 04, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   24 18 22 24 25 22 20 22 21 19 16
Exceeded High   18 16 17 20 19 14 15 15 16 9 6
Scenario Percentage   75% 89% 77% 83% 76% 64% 75% 68% 76% 47% 38%
Avg Max Increase   10.33% 14.09% 16.64% 13.84% 13.69% 18.82% 13.01% 19.50% 19.52% 19.33% 11.75%
Max Increase   34.47% 30.79% 52.19% 59.47% 48.77% 63.89% 27.25% 82.60% 115.64% 109.13% 38.87%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 19 19 15 17 12 19 20 15 7 9
Avg Max Decline   -1.94% -2.50% -1.55% -1.70% -2.44% -1.53% -3.55% -3.65% -2.97% -2.58% -1.23%
Max Decline   -11.20% -11.27% -8.11% -6.12% -9.98% -6.44% -12.06% -12.47% -12.38% -10.13% -3.23%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 5 6 6 9 4 13 9 8 3 4
2022 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes        
Action   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes          
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 27 22 21 20 23 25 23 24 26 29
Penetrated Low   17 19 18 19 17 22 21 20 20 22 20
Scenario Percentage   81% 70% 82% 90% 85% 96% 84% 87% 83% 85% 69%
Avg Max Decline   8.35% 9.13% 9.14% 8.60% 8.23% 8.47% 9.02% 8.37% 14.55% 11.42% 7.66%
Max Decline   21.21% 21.65% 22.76% 18.17% 22.75% 21.57% 17.07% 17.14% 35.43% 28.60% 25.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 12 15 15 16 17 16 19 19 14 12
Avg Max Increase   -5.07% -2.49% -2.16% -2.31% -4.18% -3.44% -2.63% -4.91% -3.90% -3.75% -1.66%
Max Increase   -12.46% -12.35% -5.96% -9.62% -14.70% -12.01% -10.04% -16.15% -10.75% -10.42% -8.26%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 7 9 5 10 9 8 13 10 8 4
2022 Contract Condition     Yes     Yes            
Action     No     Yes            
High 219.60 205.30 203.95 219.45 246.55 249.50 243.90 243.95        
Low 155.95 178.90 186.95 196.00 202.50 222.70 220.15 234.95        
Close/Last 186.15 199.95 198.30 207.60 230.95 225.25 234.60 241.45        

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