MRCI's Futures Highlight - Coffee "C"(ICE)

MRCI's Futures Highlight - Coffee "C"(ICE)

MRCI hopes this profile of the ICE Coffee "C" futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by Commodity Research Bureau

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the ICE Coffee "C" futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Coffee "C"(ICE) from 1/1976 - 3/2024
Calendar Year	Monday Avg Rng	Tuesday Avg Rng	Wednesday Avg Rng	Thursday Avg Rng	Friday Avg Rng	Yearly Avg Rng
1976	2.67($1000)	2.84($1067)	2.96($1111)	2.82($1058)	2.79($1045)	2.82($1058)
1977	7.30($2738)	7.64($2865)	6.88($2580)	7.99($2996)	6.77($2539)	7.31($2743)
1978	4.42($1657)	4.49($1683)	4.06($1522)	3.65($1368)	3.76($1412)	4.07($1525)
1979	3.04($1140)	2.84($1065)	2.91($1090)	3.24($1215)	3.65($1369)	3.14($1176)
1980	4.25($1593)	4.33($1623)	3.57($1340)	3.76($1411)	3.92($1470)	3.96($1485)
1981	3.33($1250)	3.31($1241)	3.57($1340)	3.67($1377)	3.57($1339)	3.49($1309)
1982	2.82($1059)	3.18($1191)	3.00($1126)	3.10($1162)	2.88($1079)	3.00($1125)
1983	1.72($644)	1.58($591)	1.67($625)	1.63($612)	1.55($581)	1.63($610)
1984	1.75($658)	1.87($700)	2.04($767)	1.78($667)	1.84($692)	1.86($697)
1985	2.58($967)	2.61($978)	2.47($927)	2.84($1065)	2.85($1067)	2.67($1000)
1986	7.10($2662)	7.94($2979)	7.50($2813)	6.95($2605)	6.61($2479)	7.23($2713)
1987	3.02($1131)	2.66($999)	2.22($834)	2.29($858)	2.21($829)	2.48($930)
1988	2.42($909)	2.48($930)	2.36($884)	2.26($848)	2.29($859)	2.36($886)
1989	2.92($1093)	3.17($1189)	3.14($1179)	2.81($1055)	2.95($1107)	3.00($1125)
1990	2.09($782)	2.02($759)	2.20($826)	2.24($841)	2.35($881)	2.18($818)
1991	1.66($623)	1.58($591)	1.70($637)	1.62($609)	1.85($693)	1.68($630)
1992	1.92($719)	1.92($718)	1.86($699)	1.69($633)	1.85($694)	1.85($692)
1993	2.49($933)	2.69($1010)	2.23($835)	2.21($828)	2.21($830)	2.37($888)
1994	8.43($3160)	5.81($2177)	7.28($2731)	5.40($2024)	5.57($2088)	6.47($2425)
1995	4.49($1683)	4.69($1758)	4.51($1691)	4.33($1622)	4.69($1758)	4.54($1702)
1996	4.33($1624)	3.56($1336)	3.47($1302)	3.64($1366)	3.47($1299)	3.69($1382)
1997	9.24($3466)	9.54($3577)	9.60($3599)	9.80($3675)	7.88($2956)	9.23($3461)
1998	4.62($1733)	5.02($1881)	4.01($1503)	4.28($1603)	4.59($1722)	4.50($1687)
1999	4.83($1813)	4.61($1730)	4.31($1617)	4.37($1639)	3.66($1373)	4.36($1635)
2000	3.81($1430)	3.03($1135)	2.88($1081)	3.20($1199)	2.83($1062)	3.14($1176)
2001	1.97($739)	1.66($623)	1.67($625)	1.76($660)	1.87($703)	1.78($669)
2002	2.10($788)	1.91($716)	1.78($668)	1.86($696)	1.77($662)	1.88($706)
2003	1.98($742)	1.71($640)	1.72($643)	1.90($711)	1.53($575)	1.77($662)
2004	2.80($1050)	2.31($867)	2.44($913)	2.32($871)	2.16($808)	2.40($901)
2005	3.99($1497)	3.40($1276)	3.70($1388)	3.38($1266)	3.31($1242)	3.55($1331)
2006	3.12($1170)	2.71($1015)	2.64($991)	2.84($1064)	2.70($1011)	2.79($1048)
2007	3.08($1157)	2.44($916)	2.35($883)	2.68($1004)	2.42($906)	2.59($971)
2008	4.60($1723)	3.96($1485)	3.75($1408)	4.41($1653)	4.11($1540)	4.15($1558)
2009	4.17($1566)	3.30($1237)	3.18($1192)	3.55($1329)	3.75($1407)	3.58($1342)
2010	4.71($1768)	5.15($1930)	4.43($1661)	4.71($1768)	5.03($1884)	4.81($1802)
2011	7.46($2799)	7.33($2748)	7.47($2802)	7.33($2748)	7.81($2931)	7.48($2806)
2012	5.05($1894)	5.43($2035)	5.17($1937)	5.22($1957)	4.57($1713)	5.09($1907)
2013	3.00($1123)	3.10($1161)	3.18($1192)	3.19($1198)	3.15($1180)	3.12($1171)
2014	7.32($2745)	6.81($2555)	7.31($2741)	6.65($2493)	6.57($2463)	6.93($2599)
2015	4.71($1766)	4.41($1653)	4.61($1730)	4.47($1675)	4.34($1626)	4.51($1690)
2016	4.02($1508)	3.40($1274)	3.50($1313)	4.06($1523)	3.62($1356)	3.71($1392)
2017	3.14($1176)	3.00($1125)	3.17($1188)	3.22($1209)	3.08($1156)	3.12($1171)
2018	2.76($1037)	2.57($964)	2.44($915)	2.59($969)	2.61($980)	2.59($972)
2019	3.49($1307)	3.16($1186)	2.84($1065)	2.95($1106)	2.84($1064)	3.05($1144)
2020	4.43($1662)	3.64($1366)	3.86($1448)	3.79($1423)	4.14($1552)	3.96($1487)
2021	6.14($2301)	5.50($2062)	4.97($1865)	5.25($1969)	5.94($2228)	5.55($2080)
2022	7.60($2849)	6.60($2477)	7.26($2724)	6.79($2544)	7.00($2626)	7.04($2639)
2023	5.68($2128)	5.51($2067)	5.29($1985)	5.53($2074)	5.44($2040)	5.48($2057)
2024	5.08($1905)	5.62($2107)	4.87($1827)	5.11($1917)	5.71($2141)	5.28($1980)

What other characteristics do ICE Coffee "C" futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract.

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Coffee "C"(ICE) from 1/1976 - 3/2024
Summary Item	Monday Summary	Tuesday Summary	Wednesday Summary	Thursday Summary	Friday Summary	Yearly Summary
Range	4.05($1518)	3.86($1446)	3.79($1420)	3.80($1423)	3.73($1399)	3.84($1440)
Closed Up	1076(47%)	1246(50%)	1248(50%)	1254(51%)	1135(47%)	5959(49%)
Closed Dn	1180(52%)	1211(49%)	1220(49%)	1171(48%)	1238(52%)	6020(50%)
Closed Uchg	25(1%)	26(1%)	27(1%)	18(1%)	18(1%)	114(1%)
Gapped up	249(11%)	259(10%)	252(10%)	248(10%)	270(11%)	1278(11%)
Un-filled Gaps Up	119(48%)	108(42%)	89(35%)	92(37%)	103(38%)	511(40%)
Gapped Down	407(18%)	366(15%)	328(13%)	293(12%)	291(12%)	1685(14%)
Un-filled Gaps Down	149(37%)	97(27%)	86(26%)	68(23%)	71(24%)	471(28%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Coffee "C"(ICE)
UNCH	>0%- <1%	+1%- <2%	+2%- <3%	+3%- <4%	+4%- <5%	+5%- <6%	+6%- <7%	+7%- <8%	+8%- <9%	+9%- <10%	+10%- <20%	>+20%
114	2651	1649	850	405	200	92	46	26	8	9	20	3
	<0%- >-1%	-1%- >-2%	-2%- >-3%	-3%- >-4%	-4%- >-5%	-5%- >-6%	-6%- >-7%	-7%- >-8%	-8%- >-9%	-9%- >-10%	-10%- >-20%	<-20%
	2656	1653	894	448	197	76	45	20	14	3	14	0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the ICE Coffee "C" futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Coffee: Brazilian NY - Feb 4, 2022
	Period Low(Jan-Dec)		Period High(Jan-Dec)		Last Day		Average
Year	Date	Price	Date	Price	Date	Price	Price
2021	01/07/2021	169.25	11/26/2021	301.04	12/31/2021	285.48	219.68
2020	02/04/2020	137.53	09/08/2020	181.51	12/31/2020	172.18	157.65
2019	05/09/2019	119.85	12/17/2019	170.22	12/31/2019	162.14	133.51
2018	09/19/2018	121.80	01/05/2018	148.40	12/31/2018	127.19	136.84
2017	12/13/2017	137.28	01/24/2017	172.76	12/29/2017	143.70	152.35
2016	01/21/2016	130.52	11/08/2016	190.07	12/30/2016	157.69	155.65
2015	11/16/2015	132.04	01/15/2015	195.72	12/31/2015	141.27	151.63
2014	01/02/2014	126.80	10/10/2014	239.35	12/31/2014	182.92	197.98
2013	12/10/2013	119.63	01/22/2013	173.77	12/31/2013	127.97	147.85
2012	12/17/2012	160.38	01/12/2012	265.05	12/31/2012	161.02	201.93
2011	12/19/2011	243.23	05/03/2011	332.07	12/30/2011	255.00	283.75
2010	04/28/2010	194.51	12/29/2010	281.54	12/31/2010	278.19	225.87
2009	01/02/2009 01/05/2009	130.55	05/28/2009	225.97	12/31/2009	192.46	177.48
2008	12/08/2008	124.35	03/04/2008	172.75	12/31/2008	130.55	144.05
2007	05/04/2007 05/07/2007	112.07	10/15/2007	144.14	12/31/2007	141.48	125.56
2006	04/17/2006	102.89	12/15/2006 12/26/2006	134.12	12/29/2006	131.32	116.60
2005	11/25/2005	97.99	03/11/2005	147.75	12/30/2005	115.98	116.68
2004	01/02/2004 01/05/2004	57.00	12/21/2004	116.00	12/31/2004	95.75	83.36
2003	11/28/2003	53.00	02/11/2003 09/12/2003	74.50	12/31/2003	70.00	67.21
2002	01/21/2002	43.25	11/21/2002	76.50	12/31/2002	66.25	65.04
2001	10/23/2001	35.50	05/07/2001 05/08/2001	82.50	12/31/2001	41.25	54.80
2000	12/14/2000	63.50	01/26/2000 01/27/2000 01/28/2000	132.50	12/29/2000	66.50	93.06
1999	10/01/1999	80.75	12/03/1999	141.00	12/30/1999	125.50	104.26
1998	09/18/1998	106.50	02/05/1998	193.50	12/30/1998	117.00	137.88
1997	01/06/1997	134.00	05/29/1997	359.00	12/31/1997	168.00	205.08
1996	01/02/1996	95.00	08/26/1996	151.50	12/31/1996	136.00	128.51
1995	12/28/1995	97.50	03/10/1995	181.00	12/29/1995	98.50	144.47
1994	01/03/1994 01/04/1994 01/05/1994 01/11/1994	61.50	07/12/1994 07/13/1994	247.00	12/30/1994	160.25	137.81
1993	04/21/1993 04/22/1993	47.00	09/17/1993	72.75	12/30/1993	61.50	58.92
1992	08/17/1992	35.00	12/21/1992 12/22/1992	69.50	12/31/1992	66.00	49.51

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the March Coffee "C"(ICE) futures contracts.

Scenario^SM Study for July Coffee "C"(ICE) as of Feb 04, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	18	22	24	25	22	20	22	21	19	16
Exceeded High		18	16	17	20	19	14	15	15	16	9	6
Scenario Percentage		75%	89%	77%	83%	76%	64%	75%	68%	76%	47%	38%
Avg Max Increase		10.33%	14.09%	16.64%	13.84%	13.69%	18.82%	13.01%	19.50%	19.52%	19.33%	11.75%
Max Increase		34.47%	30.79%	52.19%	59.47%	48.77%	63.89%	27.25%	82.60%	115.64%	109.13%	38.87%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	19	19	15	17	12	19	20	15	7	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.94%	-2.50%	-1.55%	-1.70%	-2.44%	-1.53%	-3.55%	-3.65%	-2.97%	-2.58%	-1.23%
Max Decline		-11.20%	-11.27%	-8.11%	-6.12%	-9.98%	-6.44%	-12.06%	-12.47%	-12.38%	-10.13%	-3.23%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	5	6	6	9	4	13	9	8	3	4
2022 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.

Tested Month

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Tested Years

Closed Lower

Penetrated Low

Scenario Percentage

81%

70%

82%

90%

85%

96%

84%

87%

83%

85%

69%

Avg Max Decline

8.35%

9.13%

9.14%

8.60%

8.23%

8.47%

9.02%

8.37%

14.55%

11.42%

7.66%

Max Decline

21.21%

21.65%

22.76%

18.17%

22.75%

21.57%

17.07%

17.14%

35.43%

28.60%

25.02%

Avg Days To Max Decline

Avg Max Increase

-5.07%

-2.49%

-2.16%

-2.31%

-4.18%

-3.44%

-2.63%

-4.91%

-3.90%

-3.75%

-1.66%

Max Increase

-12.46%

-12.35%

-5.96%

-9.62%

-14.70%

-12.01%

-10.04%

-16.15%

-10.75%

-10.42%

-8.26%

Avg Days to Max Increase

2022 Contract Condition

Yes

Action

Yes

High

219.60

205.30

203.95

219.45

246.55

249.50

243.90

243.95

Low

155.95

178.90

186.95

196.00

202.50

222.70

220.15

234.95

Close/Last

186.15

199.95

198.30

207.60

230.95

225.25

234.60

241.45

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