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August 2016 Editors Comments

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Physical Commodities


Consolidation!?!

The old CRB Index (go to stockcharts.com, click on Free Charts, enter $CRB in box labeled Create a Sharp Chart) appears to be doing so on both daily and weekly charts.  After a multi-year decline, it hit a low on 1/20/16 of 154.85 and bounced.  It resumed its downward path but found support at 154.89 - and bounced.  But this time the bounce continued higher.

In fact, by 6/8/16, it had run up to 195.88 "an" increase of 26% - when the whole world appeared to be bearish!  It pulled back to 187.01 on 6/27/16, but has been testing resistance at 195-200.  Price is above the50-day moving average at 187.30 and the 200-day MA at 179.66.  It has now spent five weeks above the 50-week moving average at 182.93.

Crude oil broke hard.  Midwest Corn and Soybean Belts both received timely rains.  Wheat fell to multi-year lows.

But softs continue to be perky.  Precious metals have outperformed expectations.  It has been gold, yen, bonds - and the US dollar that investors pile into when stock markets look ,,, ummmmm ... risky.

How much money might be available if and when money begins really to flow out of global stock markets?

Perhaps we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


 

July 2016 Editors Comments

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Physical Commodities


Wow!  Remember when the world was going to be suffocated by soybeans because US stocks were heavy, South America planted record or near-record acreage, and political change in Argentina was going to unlock two years worth of soybeans?  Remember when the world was going to be flooded in crude oil?

That was when the CRB Index (stockcharts.com, Free Charts, and type in $CRB) was trading below 155.  After hitting 154.85 and then 154.89 in early 2016, the Index blew through its 18-month downtrend line in April.  It now trades above 185 a 20% increase.  It is currently trading above its 50-day moving average (178.50) which is about to cross over its 200-day (180.01).  It has broken through and is trading above its 50-week moving average and is still
not overbought on daily or weekly indicators.

Gold and silver led the initial rally but crude oil and agricultural markets have since taken over the lead.  What?  Food and energy?  Who uses those?  No, wage inflation has not (yet) picked up, although moves to increase the minimum wage may generate pressure.

Inflationary and deflationary prssures historically appear in commodities first, so ...

... perhaps we should be ready to ...


Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Thursday, 02 June 2016 13:03
 

June 2016 Editors Comments

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Physical Commodities


Has the US dollar formed a major top?  Or has it been consolidating in a range the lower boundary of which it briefly penetrated to form a washout bottom?

Is the stock market forming a multi-year peak?

Has the CRB Index made a multi-year bottom?

The answer to any one of those questions, let alone any combination of them, will have profound economic, social, and political effects on the future.  Your editor has barely enough wisdom to know that he doesn't know even though he has his suspicions.

After a powerful multi-month rally from about 80.00, the US Dollar Index futures spent the next 15 months in a range between 100.79 and 92.52.  Much of the fundamental discussion centered around the difference between low but ready-to-rise US rates versus even lower in some cases, negative! rates in other major economies.  Further, the US economy was seen as growing slowly but at least growing.  But the dollar's March close was lower than any monthly close since December 2014.  And the April was even lower.  In the first two days of May, it slipped below that hump (92.52) of a potential double top only to reverse on that second day.  Washout?  Or just an overdue bounce from grossly oversold?

Perhaps we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Wednesday, 04 May 2016 05:37
 

May 2016 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI has begun publishing a new round of volumes in its series
of special reports each year.  Hot off the press:

2016 Historical Grains: a 174-page volume of seasonal
analysis for corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT,KC, MGE); includes seasonal
patterns for each delivery and for both intra- and inter-market spreads;
best of all, 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2016 Historical Soy Complex: a 174-page volume of seasonal
analysis for soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; includes seasonal patterns
for each delivery month, for both intra- and inter-market spreads,
and crush; best of all, 128 seasonal, spread, and crush strategies.

Call 1-800-927-7259 or 1-541-933-5340 or else send an
e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to find out more and be among the
first to see this new research.

Physical Commodities

First, for those of you who wish to know a little more about seasonal analysis, MRCI, and/or your editor, you can listen to a blog interview of your editor by Michael Gross of Option Sellers at this link: www.OptionSellers.com/Toepke1.

Well, the CRB (stockcharts.com, click on Free Charts,
type into box $CRB) hit a double bottom low of significance
in February at 155, rose into March to as high as 179.  By April 1,
it had declined to about 168 about half-way back and approaching
its 50-day moving average of 166.  Will it hold and turn the Index
back up?

Precious metals are or have already pulled back to their 50- and/or
200-day moving averages which are in bullish alignment.  Corn
will go in the ground in April, soybeans in May.  Wheat will be harvested
in June.  What could go wrong?  Energies at best would
seem to be in a holding pattern with too much
actual and potential supply for almost any amount of demand.

But what about the US dollar?  Its March close was the lowest since
December 2014.  And what if the equity market loses its, shall we
say, "incredible lightness of being"?  Where will the money go then?

Perhaps we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



 

Last Updated on Monday, 04 April 2016 10:40
 

April 2016 Editors Comments

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@PARA HEAD = Special Historical Reports
MRCI has begun publishing a new round of volumes in its series
of special reports each year.  Hot off the press:
2016 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  
a 148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live and feeder cattle;
includes seasonal patterns, cash charts, daily historical charts,
and 66 historically reliable seasonal and spread (including feeder/fat)
trading strategies for year-round trading ideas.
2016 Historical Lean Hogs/Cattle vs. Hogs:  
a 126-page volume of seasonal analysis for hogs and hog/cattle spreads;
with seasonal patterns, historical daily charts, 46 historically reliable
seasonal and spread strategies for hogs and 30 for hog/cattle spreads.
Coming next:
2016 Historical Grains
Coming thereafter:
2016 Historical Soy Complex
Recently published:
2016 Historical Lumber:  a 58-page volume of seasonal
analysis for lumber futures; includes seasonal patterns and weekly
charts for each delivery month;
with 22 seasonal and spread strategies.
2015 Historical Stock Indices:  a 186-page volume of
seasonal analysis for the major US stock index futures (SP500, Russell,
NASDAQ, DJIA, SP Midcapo 400) and also 8 international indices; includes
62 seasonal strategies for US indices and 108 strategies for the international
indices.
2015 Historical Interest Rates:  a 196-page volume;
US domestic and international debt instruments; for 30-year US Treasury
bonds and 2-/5-/10-year Treasury notes and Eurodollars, includes 104
seasonal and spread strategies; 72 for international markets.
Call 1-800-927-7259 or 1-541-933-5340 or else send an
e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to find out more and be among the
first to see this new research.
@PARA HEAD = Physical Commodities
The venerable CRB Index (go to stockcharts.com, click on Free
Charts, type in $CRB) is tryinng to base again, perhaps
making a double bottom in February with January's low.  With the 50-day
MA hovering just
overhead, a show of strength could beget yet more.
From whence could it come?  Of course, a decline in the US dollar
could help the metal and soy/grain
complexes.  A decline in the stock market could drive money into the
precious metals.  But a relief rally in energies would be a strong
driver.
Now come the planting and growing seasons for agricultural products
in the Northern Hemisphere, so weather will play an increasing role.  What
about the
US presidential campaign?  Could that upset financial markets here
and abroad?
@PARA HEAD = 2015 Results
We wish to draw your attention to the results of the MRCI Seasonal
and Spread Reviews and of the Weekly Spread Commentary for 2015.  You
can find them in the section beginning page 71, including results
tabulated by sector, and the equity graphs for the year.  On page
74 are hypothetical equity curves for each since inception.
In 2016, be ready to ...
Trade 'em,
Jerry Toepke


Special Historical Reports

MRCI has begun publishing a new round of volumes in its series
of special reports each year.  Hot off the press:

148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live and feeder cattle;
includes seasonal patterns, cash charts, daily historical charts,
and 66 historically reliable seasonal and spread (including feeder/fat)
trading strategies for year-round trading ideas.

126-page volume of seasonal analysis for hogs and hog/cattle spreads;
with seasonal patterns, historical daily charts, 46 historically reliable
seasonal and spread strategies for hogs and 30 for hog/cattle spreads.

58-page volume of seasonal analysis for lumber futures; includes
seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; with 22
seasonal and spread strategies.

Call 1-800-927-7259 or 1-541-933-5340 or else send an email to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
to find out more and be mong the first to see this new research.

Physical Commodities


The venerable CRB Index (go to stockcharts.com, click on Free Charts,
type in $CRB) is tryinng to base again, perhaps making a double bottom
in February with January's low.  With the 50-day MA hovering just overhead,
a show of strength could beget yet more.

From whence could it come?  Of course, a decline in the US dollar could help
the metal and soy/grain complexes.  A decline in the stock market could drive money
into the precious metals.  But a relief rally in energies would be a strong driver.

Now come the planting and growing seasons for agricultural products in the Northern
Hemisphere, so weather will play an increasing role.  What about the US presidential
campaign? Could that upset financial markets here and abroad?
We wish to draw your attention to the results of the MRCI Seasonal and Spread Reviews
and of the Weekly Spread Commentary for 2015.  You can find them in the section
beginning page 71, including results tabulated by sector, and the equity graphs for the year.
On page 74 are hypothetical equity curves for each since inception.

In 2016, be ready to ...

Trade 'em,
Jerry Toepke





 

Last Updated on Tuesday, 08 March 2016 11:35
 
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Outright & Spread trading strategies. Illustrates and quantifies price movement in both cash and futures
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