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February 2018 Editors Comments

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CRB & Physical Commodities

Is it finally time?  Or just another head fake?

After making its all-time high in 2011, the CRB Index has been declining or correcting or ? It has made a couple stabs at establishing a bottom only to be followed by another decline to new lows.

But in January/February 2016, it made a double bottom at just below 155.  It then rose to about 195, exceeded and then retested its 50-week moving average (wma), and rose again into early 2017 only to find resistance a second time at 195.  "Disappointed," it fell to well below its 50-wma and appeared ready to make more new lows.

But this past June it instead held 167.  It turned up again, exceeded its 50-wma, but in November found resistance at 193.  It fell again.

But this time it retested its 50-wma successfully - and reversed back up to end the year at 194.  On the first day of 2018, it closed at nearly 195.

On the daily chart, it is now "overbought."  And back to major resistance.  Can it blow through?  Will it decline again?  Or will it back off, and then go?

Will we now see inflation in 2018 ... and beyond?

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

 

January 2018 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports


Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Indices: this 186-page volume contains seasonal analysis of the major US stock indices futures, such as S&P500, DJIA, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, S&PMidcap 400, and also several of the major international indices; with 170 trading strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2017 Historical Metals: this 84-page volume contains seasonal analysis for gold, silver, platinum, and copper; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; includes 72 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2017 Historical Interest Rates: this 222-page volume of seasonal analysis for not only US Treasury bonds and notes and Eurodollars but also several international sovereign debt instruments; with 206 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas; also introduces ratio spreads recognized by US exchanges for margin purposes.

CRB & Physical Commodities




Although it closed down hard on the last day of November at 189.17,
the CRB Index closed higher for the third successive month.  It was
still not far off major weekly resistance at 195-196 probed
first in June 2016 and then again December 2016-February 2017.

This time it has reached 192.99 so far.  It is struggling here,
but it has risen from its low last June at 166.48.  In doing so, it
again crossed above its 50-week moving average, which now resides
at 184.32.  Neither its stochastics nor RSI is particularly overbought
on a weekly basis, but both daily indicators have turned down.

Is/was this a correction?  The 50-day moving average (dma) at 186.79
is above the 200 dma at 182.10.  Perhaps, after three drives up, this
is/was a typical two-steps back move toward the 50-week ma.  If it
holds, then it may challenge 195-196 again the fourth time.

On the first day of December, political events drove the US dollar
and stock indices sharply lower and bonds sharply higher.  Crude oil
stormed higher, grains and soybeans rose, precious metals appeared
to reverse back up.  Will most of those be one-day wonders
knee-jerk reactions to the day's news?  Or are they the first
signs of something else?

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should
be ready to ...



Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke
Last Updated on Monday, 04 December 2017 08:33
 

December 2017 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports


Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Indices: this 186-page volume contains seasonal analysis of the major US stock indices futures, such as S&P500, DJIA, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, S&PMidcap 400, and also several of the major international indices; with 170 trading strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2017 Historical Metals: this 84-page volume contains seasonal analysis for gold, silver, platinum, and copper; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; includes 72 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2017 Historical Interest Rates: this 222-page volume of seasonal analysis for not only US Treasury bonds and notes and Eurodollars but also several international sovereign debt instruments; with 206 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas; also introduces ratio spreads recognized by US exchanges for margin purposes.

CRB & Physical Commodities


Does the bull return?  Yes, you might think this is Version 20.0 of that question.  So, first the CRB facts:

After declining from its all-time high in 2011, the CRB Index fell to a double-bottom low of 155 in Jan/Feb 2016.  Upon recovering to 195, the Index fell once again but this time to only 166.48 in June 2017.

On Halloween 2017, it made a new high for its recent move, closing at 187.56.  The 50-day moving average (dma) was 182.70.  The 200-dma was 182.40.  Price >> 50-dma >> 200-dma.

At 187, the CRB is poised to challenge major resistance at 195 a breakout above which confirms an intermediate.

What could drive it?  Metals gold, silver, platinum, copper are normally strong going into the new year.  (Dr.) Copper has been especially strong of late.  Soybeans and corn typically enjoy post-harvest recoveries.

Energies are normally weak from at least mid October into mid December, but they have been unusually strong, with crude trading up to $55/bbl on November 1.  National politics are in turmoil, and a new Fed chair is to be named.  Chaos?

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepk
Last Updated on Thursday, 02 November 2017 07:18
 

November 2017 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Metals: this 84-page volume contains seasonal analysis for gold, silver, platinum, and copper; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; includes 72 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2017 Historical Interest Rates: this 222-page volume of seasonal analysis for not only US Treasury bonds and notes and Eurodollars but also several international sovereign debt instruments; with 206 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas; also introduces ratio spreads recognized by US exchanges for margin purposes.

CRB & Physical Commodities


Heads and shoulders (H&S)?!?

The CRB Index is trying to build out the right shoulder of a potential H&S bottom on a weekly chart.  It fell back from the neckline (~184) on the first day of October, but ...

Copper, usually considered a leading indicator, appears to have completed a breakout from a 3-year weekly H&S bottom, and may be looking to retest its breakout in the area of $2.75-2.80.

Even crude oil appears to be working on a potential H&S bottom, with a neckline near $52.50.

'Tis the season for harvest lows in soybeans and corn.  So far, soybeans made a low in June, then a higher pre-harvest low in August.  If they cannot make a new low coincident with the harvest glut, does that suggest a market building a bullish base?  Corn made a new pre-harvest low in August.  Can it make a new low in October/November?  If not, what does that mean?

Gold, silver, platinum were all under pressure going into October, but all three traditionally rally during the gift-giving season.  (If they do not, that could certainly suggest serious weakness.)

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should
be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke
Last Updated on Tuesday, 03 October 2017 09:47
 

October 2017 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Interest Rates: this 222-page volume of seasonal analysis for not only US Treasury bonds and notes and Eurodollars but also several international sovereign debt instruments; with 206 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas; also introduces ratio spreads recognized by US exchanges for margin purposes.

Recently published:

2017 Historical Forex:  this 207-page volume contains seasonal analysis for the US dollar index; Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars; British pounds; eurocurrencies; Mexican pesos; Japanese yen; and Swiss francs; includes 78 seasonal and 158 spread strategies.



CRB & Physical Commodities


Good news/bad news (depends on perspective).  The bad news (for bulls) was that August disappointed.  The CRB Index (stockcharts.com, Free Charts, type in $CRB in the spot for Create
a Sharp Chart) had rallied off a significant low in June but fell in August.

But it was not even a 50% retracement, and it was a retest of the 50-day moving average.  The Index bounced from there, but pulled back again late in the month as grains continued lower and energies softened.

But the last day of August may have been telling.  Granted, volume was low just before the end-of-summer holiday.  But the only sellers to be found were in cattle and the US dollar!  Nearly every commodity and stock and bond and currency closed higher!  In fact, the CRB Index closed the month with a magnificent, massive, wide-range bar up!

Why?  Ah, the dollar.  The dollar index made its 14-year high on the first day of trading in 2017 and has trended lower ever since.  Oversold?  Maybe.

How much will the US spend for Harvey storm recovery?  The debt ceiling mayincrease spending.  The 2018 budget with huge Pentagon slush fund?  All-out tax cuts financed by deficit spending?  What may a fiscal free lunch do to the US dollar?  All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Friday, 01 September 2017 10:53
 
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