Editors Comments
 

Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home Editors Comments
Editors Comments


October 2016 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Physical Commodities....

Whoa!  Is this a correction and consolidation?

After a double bottom in January/February (154.85-154.89) 7 years from the last major low in December 2008, the CRB Index (stockcharts.com, Free Charts, type in $CRB) rose to a high in June of 195.88.  In doing so, it rose above the 50-dma and pulled that above the 200-dma the so-called Golden Cross.

Since then, however, the CRB declined by early August to 176.67.  But that retracement of not even 50% was a retest of the 200-dma (and 50-week ma).  It held, and rose to 189.57, which was above the 50-dma again.

Now it declined again.  But despite all the bearish sentiment and selling in grains, energies, and metals, the Index ended the month of August still above 180.

Will it hold and recover, perhaps setting up a trading range, a consolidationl?  What could drive a rebound?  Normally, corn and soybeans decline during September as harvest approaches?  Are they already oversold?  What about crude oil?  Was -$1.60/bbl on the last day of August justified?

And, of course, what will the US dollar do - and whatever that may be, how will commodities react?  Where will money go if/when the stock and/or bond markets pop their bubbles?

Perhaps we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

P.S. Hot off the press - MRCI's 2016 Historical Forex Report!!

218 pages of seasonal analysis for Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars, British pounds, Japanese yen, Mexicah pesos, Eurocurrencies, and US dollar index; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each contract of each currency and for spreads between; includes 236 total seasonal strategies for year round trading ideas - 78 seasonal and 158 spreads.

Last Updated on Thursday, 01 September 2016 09:06
 

September 2016 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Physical Commodities

A really mixed bag.  Grains and the soy complex still falling, energies
still plunging.  Metals strong, softs and meats mixed.

At the end of July, grains and soybeans were trying to stabilize.  The
same with energies.  Precious metals and even copper rallied.  Meats
still struggled.

The CRB Index (stockcharts.com, click on Free Charts,
then type $CRB the appropriate box) fell
persistently during the last half of July until the last day.  Having
returned from above the higher 50-day moving average (dma) to the
lower 200 dma, Index bounced sharply in an outside day.  On
the weekly chart, it had returned to the 50-week moving average
and left a tail.

On the first day of August (as this is being written), corn and soybeans
plunged again, as did crude oil.  Softs were mixed agaim but cattle
closed almost limit up.  The daily RSI and MACD are both at or near
readings
considered oversold.  Weekly indicators are neutral.

Now what?  Soybeans typically rally modestly from early August.  Gold
normally makes a seasonal low.  The energy complex tends to rally
during at least the latter half of the month.  September is a shoulder
month for energies and harvest begins for sorn and soy...

... but perhaps we should be ready to ...



Trade 'em,



Jerry Toepke


 

August 2016 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Physical Commodities


Consolidation!?!

The old CRB Index (go to stockcharts.com, click on Free Charts, enter $CRB in box labeled Create a Sharp Chart) appears to be doing so on both daily and weekly charts.  After a multi-year decline, it hit a low on 1/20/16 of 154.85 and bounced.  It resumed its downward path but found support at 154.89 - and bounced.  But this time the bounce continued higher.

In fact, by 6/8/16, it had run up to 195.88 "an" increase of 26% - when the whole world appeared to be bearish!  It pulled back to 187.01 on 6/27/16, but has been testing resistance at 195-200.  Price is above the50-day moving average at 187.30 and the 200-day MA at 179.66.  It has now spent five weeks above the 50-week moving average at 182.93.

Crude oil broke hard.  Midwest Corn and Soybean Belts both received timely rains.  Wheat fell to multi-year lows.

But softs continue to be perky.  Precious metals have outperformed expectations.  It has been gold, yen, bonds - and the US dollar that investors pile into when stock markets look ,,, ummmmm ... risky.

How much money might be available if and when money begins really to flow out of global stock markets?

Perhaps we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


 

July 2016 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Physical Commodities


Wow!  Remember when the world was going to be suffocated by soybeans because US stocks were heavy, South America planted record or near-record acreage, and political change in Argentina was going to unlock two years worth of soybeans?  Remember when the world was going to be flooded in crude oil?

That was when the CRB Index (stockcharts.com, Free Charts, and type in $CRB) was trading below 155.  After hitting 154.85 and then 154.89 in early 2016, the Index blew through its 18-month downtrend line in April.  It now trades above 185 a 20% increase.  It is currently trading above its 50-day moving average (178.50) which is about to cross over its 200-day (180.01).  It has broken through and is trading above its 50-week moving average and is still
not overbought on daily or weekly indicators.

Gold and silver led the initial rally but crude oil and agricultural markets have since taken over the lead.  What?  Food and energy?  Who uses those?  No, wage inflation has not (yet) picked up, although moves to increase the minimum wage may generate pressure.

Inflationary and deflationary prssures historically appear in commodities first, so ...

... perhaps we should be ready to ...


Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Thursday, 02 June 2016 13:03
 

June 2016 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Physical Commodities


Has the US dollar formed a major top?  Or has it been consolidating in a range the lower boundary of which it briefly penetrated to form a washout bottom?

Is the stock market forming a multi-year peak?

Has the CRB Index made a multi-year bottom?

The answer to any one of those questions, let alone any combination of them, will have profound economic, social, and political effects on the future.  Your editor has barely enough wisdom to know that he doesn't know even though he has his suspicions.

After a powerful multi-month rally from about 80.00, the US Dollar Index futures spent the next 15 months in a range between 100.79 and 92.52.  Much of the fundamental discussion centered around the difference between low but ready-to-rise US rates versus even lower in some cases, negative! rates in other major economies.  Further, the US economy was seen as growing slowly but at least growing.  But the dollar's March close was lower than any monthly close since December 2014.  And the April was even lower.  In the first two days of May, it slipped below that hump (92.52) of a potential double top only to reverse on that second day.  Washout?  Or just an overdue bounce from grossly oversold?

Perhaps we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Wednesday, 04 May 2016 05:37
 
  • «
  •  Start 
  •  Prev 
  •  1 
  •  2 
  •  3 
  •  4 
  •  5 
  •  6 
  •  7 
  •  8 
  •  9 
  •  Next 
  •  End 
  • »


Page 1 of 9
Banner

Subscribe Today

Subscribe Today

Subscribe to our FREE Newsletters

Email:

Newsflash

The US housing industry has been recovering, but lumber prices still rise and fall.  Are prices now at great values?

How will that affect US construction season?  Will prices go lower? Will they go higher?  If so, when?  If so, for how long?

Do your research with MRCI's 2016 LUMBER REPORT!