Editors Comments
 

Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home Editors Comments
Editors Comments


May 2016 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI has begun publishing a new round of volumes in its series
of special reports each year.  Hot off the press:

2016 Historical Grains: a 174-page volume of seasonal
analysis for corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT,KC, MGE); includes seasonal
patterns for each delivery and for both intra- and inter-market spreads;
best of all, 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2016 Historical Soy Complex: a 174-page volume of seasonal
analysis for soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; includes seasonal patterns
for each delivery month, for both intra- and inter-market spreads,
and crush; best of all, 128 seasonal, spread, and crush strategies.

Call 1-800-927-7259 or 1-541-933-5340 or else send an
e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to find out more and be among the
first to see this new research.

Physical Commodities

First, for those of you who wish to know a little more about seasonal analysis, MRCI, and/or your editor, you can listen to a blog interview of your editor by Michael Gross of Option Sellers at this link: www.OptionSellers.com/Toepke1.

Well, the CRB (stockcharts.com, click on Free Charts,
type into box $CRB) hit a double bottom low of significance
in February at 155, rose into March to as high as 179.  By April 1,
it had declined to about 168 about half-way back and approaching
its 50-day moving average of 166.  Will it hold and turn the Index
back up?

Precious metals are or have already pulled back to their 50- and/or
200-day moving averages which are in bullish alignment.  Corn
will go in the ground in April, soybeans in May.  Wheat will be harvested
in June.  What could go wrong?  Energies at best would
seem to be in a holding pattern with too much
actual and potential supply for almost any amount of demand.

But what about the US dollar?  Its March close was the lowest since
December 2014.  And what if the equity market loses its, shall we
say, "incredible lightness of being"?  Where will the money go then?

Perhaps we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



 

Last Updated on Monday, 04 April 2016 10:40
 

April 2016 Editors Comments

E-mail Print
@PARA HEAD = Special Historical Reports
MRCI has begun publishing a new round of volumes in its series
of special reports each year.  Hot off the press:
2016 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  
a 148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live and feeder cattle;
includes seasonal patterns, cash charts, daily historical charts,
and 66 historically reliable seasonal and spread (including feeder/fat)
trading strategies for year-round trading ideas.
2016 Historical Lean Hogs/Cattle vs. Hogs:  
a 126-page volume of seasonal analysis for hogs and hog/cattle spreads;
with seasonal patterns, historical daily charts, 46 historically reliable
seasonal and spread strategies for hogs and 30 for hog/cattle spreads.
Coming next:
2016 Historical Grains
Coming thereafter:
2016 Historical Soy Complex
Recently published:
2016 Historical Lumber:  a 58-page volume of seasonal
analysis for lumber futures; includes seasonal patterns and weekly
charts for each delivery month;
with 22 seasonal and spread strategies.
2015 Historical Stock Indices:  a 186-page volume of
seasonal analysis for the major US stock index futures (SP500, Russell,
NASDAQ, DJIA, SP Midcapo 400) and also 8 international indices; includes
62 seasonal strategies for US indices and 108 strategies for the international
indices.
2015 Historical Interest Rates:  a 196-page volume;
US domestic and international debt instruments; for 30-year US Treasury
bonds and 2-/5-/10-year Treasury notes and Eurodollars, includes 104
seasonal and spread strategies; 72 for international markets.
Call 1-800-927-7259 or 1-541-933-5340 or else send an
e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to find out more and be among the
first to see this new research.
@PARA HEAD = Physical Commodities
The venerable CRB Index (go to stockcharts.com, click on Free
Charts, type in $CRB) is tryinng to base again, perhaps
making a double bottom in February with January's low.  With the 50-day
MA hovering just
overhead, a show of strength could beget yet more.
From whence could it come?  Of course, a decline in the US dollar
could help the metal and soy/grain
complexes.  A decline in the stock market could drive money into the
precious metals.  But a relief rally in energies would be a strong
driver.
Now come the planting and growing seasons for agricultural products
in the Northern Hemisphere, so weather will play an increasing role.  What
about the
US presidential campaign?  Could that upset financial markets here
and abroad?
@PARA HEAD = 2015 Results
We wish to draw your attention to the results of the MRCI Seasonal
and Spread Reviews and of the Weekly Spread Commentary for 2015.  You
can find them in the section beginning page 71, including results
tabulated by sector, and the equity graphs for the year.  On page
74 are hypothetical equity curves for each since inception.
In 2016, be ready to ...
Trade 'em,
Jerry Toepke


Special Historical Reports

MRCI has begun publishing a new round of volumes in its series
of special reports each year.  Hot off the press:

148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live and feeder cattle;
includes seasonal patterns, cash charts, daily historical charts,
and 66 historically reliable seasonal and spread (including feeder/fat)
trading strategies for year-round trading ideas.

126-page volume of seasonal analysis for hogs and hog/cattle spreads;
with seasonal patterns, historical daily charts, 46 historically reliable
seasonal and spread strategies for hogs and 30 for hog/cattle spreads.

58-page volume of seasonal analysis for lumber futures; includes
seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; with 22
seasonal and spread strategies.

Call 1-800-927-7259 or 1-541-933-5340 or else send an email to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
to find out more and be mong the first to see this new research.

Physical Commodities


The venerable CRB Index (go to stockcharts.com, click on Free Charts,
type in $CRB) is tryinng to base again, perhaps making a double bottom
in February with January's low.  With the 50-day MA hovering just overhead,
a show of strength could beget yet more.

From whence could it come?  Of course, a decline in the US dollar could help
the metal and soy/grain complexes.  A decline in the stock market could drive money
into the precious metals.  But a relief rally in energies would be a strong driver.

Now come the planting and growing seasons for agricultural products in the Northern
Hemisphere, so weather will play an increasing role.  What about the US presidential
campaign? Could that upset financial markets here and abroad?
We wish to draw your attention to the results of the MRCI Seasonal and Spread Reviews
and of the Weekly Spread Commentary for 2015.  You can find them in the section
beginning page 71, including results tabulated by sector, and the equity graphs for the year.
On page 74 are hypothetical equity curves for each since inception.

In 2016, be ready to ...

Trade 'em,
Jerry Toepke





 

Last Updated on Tuesday, 08 March 2016 11:35
 

February 2016 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Physical Commodities


Well, the CRB Index did it again - after trying to yet again to stabilize, it plunged instead.  The venerable Index (to see it, go to stockcharts.com click on "Free Charts" then in the box labeled "Create a SharpChart" type in $CRB), traded quietly for several days near 182.  But it was just another in a series of pauses.  Unable to rally even by 5 points, the Index began another cascade lower.  By mid December, it had traded as low as 170.

Remember that it traded 688 in 2011 down to 313 in June 2014 - down 55% in 3 years.  Then another 45% decline to 170 in only 18 months!

So, it ended 2015 trying again to form a bottom.  The low at 170 generated 3 more weeks of trading above that level but below 178.  It is grossly oversold not only on daily indicators but weekly.  Both are diverging.

So what will 2016 hold?  Surely the downside is limited - unless commodities such as oil and gold are going to 0.  There seems to be much potential for turmoil in the world - financial, economic, political, weather.  At these firesale prices for commodities, would you rather own something tangible or have a European bank hold you money at negative interest?

If the US dollar is only the least dirty shirt in the laundry, is it clean?

I don't know, but I for one would be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke
 

January 2016 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Physical Commodities


Physical commodities in general continued their seemingly eternal (or infernal!) decline into and through November.  (You can see the chart of the CRB Index for yourself at stockcharts.com.  Once you get there, simply click on Free Charts and type in $CRB.)

But wait!  Technical indicators, such as the RSI and MACD on the weekly chart have been gently rising even as price has declined.  This so-called convergence suggests longer-term trends have been losing momentum.

And now the daily chart appears to be setting at least an intermediate bottom.  On November 23, it traded down to a new low for the move at 182.00 - the same low as traded in 1999 and 2001 in the CRB as it was then calculated.  It then bounced modestly during the holiday-shortened, light-volume week of US Thanksgiving before pulling back again on Friday and the last day of the month.,

But on December 1, it retested the low by trading at only 182.37 - and then reversing.  Is that it?  A decisive close of 187.00 or higher would seem to complete a +10-day, narrow-range low.  There would be a lot of work for it to do, but commodities can't go to 0?  Can they?

I don't know, but I for one would be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke
Last Updated on Tuesday, 05 January 2016 11:54
 

December 2015 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Physical Commodities

Have commodity indices made a bottom?

The old CRB (found at stockcharts.com click on Free Charts, then type $CRB into the box for Create a SharpChart made a small double bottom just above 185 in August after a severe final liquidation(?) leg had created oversold conditions with divergences on weekly indicators.  Since then it has been stabilizing.

How?  Did metals make a major low in a seasonal low time frame?  Led by platinum, gold and silver tend to rally into the new year and beyond.  The industry has usually built inventories of copper from mid November into spring for the upcoming construction season.

Corn and soybeans typically enjoy a post-harvest rally, even when supplies are large.  Wheat tends to decline, but there are concerns over dry conditions in North America, Ukraine, and Russia.

Crude oil and its products appear to have made a low, despite continued media discussion of heavy supplies and global overproduction.  The nearly expired natural gas contract dropped briefly below $2 - and immediately reversed.  From a bottom?

In the face of debt and fear of deflation, central banks continue their "accommodative" monetary policies.  Will too much money ultimately win out?

I don't know, but I for one would be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Thursday, 12 November 2015 10:29
 
  • «
  •  Start 
  •  Prev 
  •  1 
  •  2 
  •  3 
  •  4 
  •  5 
  •  6 
  •  7 
  •  8 
  •  Next 
  •  End 
  • »


Page 1 of 8
Banner

Subscribe Today

Subscribe Today

Subscribe to our FREE Newsletters

Email:

Newsflash

Interview With MRCI's Spread Expert Jerry Toepke.

How to Use Seasonal Tendencies In Commodities: https://youtu.be/uhuxZKYQaTA