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Moore Research Center, Inc.

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June 2013 Editor Comments

Thursday, 02 May 2013 11:32 Melissa Moore
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CRBside Commentary


"Oh, woe is us!" - or "RIP"?

MRCI has for many years featured on page 74 of this publication the ninth revision of the Commodity Research Bureau Index the CRB.  It has helped provide a long-term perspective on trends in overall inflationary and deflationary pressures from and on physical commodities as a secular backdrop not only for trading them but also on the economy.

But effective April 16, 2013, the Commodity Research Bureau is no longer calculating this venerable Index.  Your editor feels almost as if he has lost his moorings (although others
might say that happened long ago and for many reasons).  In this age of money sloshing around and commodities at historically high prices (and with high being a relative term), how are we to determine whether there is underlying pressure for still higher prices or whether they are returning toward what we used to think of as normal price levels?

In a few months, perhaps when Research Director Nick Colley returns from an extended vacation overseas, we will substitute another index.

Until then, all we can do is be ready to

Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke
Last Updated on Thursday, 02 May 2013 11:34
 

May 2013 Editor Comments

Wednesday, 03 April 2013 10:50 Melissa Moore
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CRBside Commentary

The CRB correction continues ... weak, but ...

After the big decline from the all-time high of 688 in 2001 down to 504 in early 2012 and then the rally back up to 598, the Index has retreated again but in an orderly manner.  The decline from 598 has not been pell-mell, there has been no panic.  (Of course, the CRB is an index and not a traded entity, but it does represent an asset class vulnerable to such emotional movement.)
Last Updated on Wednesday, 03 April 2013 10:54 Read more...
 

April 2013 Editor Comments

Monday, 04 March 2013 17:31 Melissa Moore
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CRBside Commentary

Whoops - here we go again.

After twice appearing to begin a recovery from a retracement, the CRB Index appears instead to have failed again.  After posting a big retracement low last June at 504, the CRB rose to 598.  After retreating from logical resistance, it tried to bottom first in November at a low of 557.  A modest rally then failed at 575, and the market slipped again into January to as low as 551 almost exactly halfway back down.  Again, however, it found support and immediately reversed back up to close January at 569.
Last Updated on Wednesday, 03 April 2013 10:55 Read more...
 

March 2013 Editor Comments

Wednesday, 06 February 2013 05:46 Melissa Moore
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CRBside Commentary

Was that it?  Did the CRB finally complete a more complex correction?

To review:  After declining from its all-time high of 688 in 2011 down to 504 in June 2012, the Index retraced a little more than 50% of the way back up as it reached 598 in September.  Stalling, it fell back into November but then reversed back up and appeared ready to challenge 600 again.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 06 February 2013 05:51 Read more...
 

February 2013 Editor Comments

Wednesday, 06 February 2013 05:40 Melissa Moore
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CRBside Commentary

Whoops! Was it just the fiscal cliff?

After what appeared to be a monthly reversal from an almost 50% retracement in November, the CRB Index not only turned down but took out the November low of 557. After closing November at 571, the Index looked poised to challenge 600. Doing so successfully would have completed what appeared to be a potential head-and-shoulders launch pad.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 06 February 2013 05:52 Read more...
 
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