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September 2015 Editors Comments

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Physical Commodities

All right! Enough is enough!

The CRB Index fell to just below 200 on the first day of August. That is down from above 313 in June 2014 a loss of more than 36% in 13 months and a day, a spillover from a Fibonacci month count (sorry to be somewhat esoteric).

Is that not a bit overly over-done? Is it not time at least to revert to the mean? At 200, this market is extremely stretched from not only its 200-day moving average (dma) at 230 but also its 50-day at 218. It has now fallen completely below its lower weekly Bollinger Band. Potential divergences are appearing in weekly indicators such as stochastics and MACD.

Could several markets be ready to set intermediate lows? Crude oil has now suffered seven consecutive lower weekly closes. Commercials in the gold market (according to Commitment of Traders reports) are approaching an almost unheard of net long position. The grains and soy complex surged out of possibly significant lows only to be pounded back down but perhaps only to retest their breakout points.

How long can the stock market stay afloat? What about the US dollar? Will China recover and begin buying again? I don't know, but I for one would be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 August 2015 11:18
 

August 2015 Editors Comments

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Physical Commodities


Dull, lifeless, ignored or choppy, volatile, violent?

Looking at the CRB Index (at stockcharts.com type $CRB into the box that appears after clicking on Free Charts), one could be forgiven for thinking that commodities were either or alternately both.

After plummeting from 313 down ultimately to 207 in March, the Index rose to 234 in May.  It then fell back but only to 219.  The question then became whether that was  the right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders bottom?

It does have potential.  The daily chart suggests a breakout above 238 which would coincide with a close above the 200-day moving average (dma) would project a measured move to about 270, about 20% above the July 1 close of 224.  Unfortunately, the Index has been stuck between 234 and 219 since late May, during which time it has swung up and down in a sometimes violent manner.

On June 30, it powered above its 50-dma in an impressive candlestick bar driven by sharply higher grain prices and looking as if it had broken out of a traingle forming the right shoulder.  But on July 1, it opened and spent almost all day below that 50-dma.

Whither thou goest, CRB?

I don't know, but I for one would be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke
Last Updated on Thursday, 02 July 2015 09:32
 

July 2015 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports


MRCI has begun publishing a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.  Hot off the press in early June:

2015 Historical Energies: a 278-page volume of seasonal analysis for crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas; with seasonal patterns for each delivery and several calendar spreads, also for product and crack spreads 2:1:1 and 3:2:1; includes 190 seasonal and spread trading ideas for throughout the year.

Recently published:

2015 Historical Softs:  a 154-page volume of seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, rice, sugar; with seasonal patterns for each delivery and some calendar spreads; includes 84 seasonal and spread srategies for year-round trading ideas.

2015 Historical Soy:  a 178-page volume of seasonal analysis for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil; includes seasonal patterns for each delivery, calendar spreads, and crush spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2015 Historical Grains:  a 174-page volume of seasonal analysis for corn, oats, wheat (W, KW, MW), including seasonal patterns for each delivery, spreads between deliveries, and also corn/oats and corn/wheat spreads; with 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2015 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  a 148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live cattle and feeder cattle, including seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads among them, and feeder/fat spreads; with historical daily charts and also cash and basis charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2015 Historical Lean Hogs and Hogs/Cattle Spreads:  a 128-page volume of seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for hog/cattle spreads, including seasonal and spread patterns; historical daily charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies.

Call 1-800-927-7259 or 1-541-933-5340 or else send an e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to find out more and be among the first to see this new research.

Physical Commodities


Go to stockcharts.com, find and click on Free Charts in the upper left, and type into the box $CRB.

The weekly chart (click back and forth) shows last June the CRB peaked (313.27) and then proceeded to decline relentlessly into the end of January (211.27) before bouncing.  The ensuing rally lasted until it touched the 50-day moving average (dma) (at 229.55).  It then declined to a new low (206.81) in February, proving once again that first rallies don't hold.

It then rallied again, but this time a little longer and, after exceeding the 50-dma, a little higher (233.53) into early May.  Unable to hold, it fell again.  But this time it has held (so far) a higher low (218.92) and, as of June 1, had closed higher three days consecutively and barely above the 50-dma again.

Is the CRB forming a head-and-shoulders bottom? Is that a head at about 207, with a potential neckline somewhere near 235?  If it breaks out above that, will it then test the 200-dma (currently 244)?

What would that mean for gold and silver?  For grains ?  Is damage to the US wheat crop far worse than reported?  Speculative hedge funds are reportedly heavy shorts, in some cases at record levels, in grains and softs.  What could trigger a short squeeze?  The US dollar?

I don't know, but I for one would be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke
Last Updated on Tuesday, 02 June 2015 07:24
 

June 2015 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports


MRCI has begun publishing a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.  Hot off the press in early May:

2015 Historical Softs:  a 154-page volume of seasonal
analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, rice, sugar; with
seasonal patterns for each delivery and some calendar spreads; includes
84 seasonal and spread srategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2015 Historical Soy:  a 178-page volume of seasonal
analysis for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil; includes seasonal
patterns for each delivery,
calendar spreads, and crush spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread
strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2015 Historical Grains:  a 174-page volume of seasonal
analysis for corn, oats, wheat (W, KW, MW), including seasonal patterns
for each delivery, spreads
between deliveries, and also corn/oats and corn/wheat spreads; with
122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2015 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  a
148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live cattle and feeder cattle,
including seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads among
them, and feeder/fat spreads; with historical daily charts
and also cash and basis charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2015 Historical Lean Hogs and Hogs/Cattle Spreads:  a
128-page volume of seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for hog/cattle
spreads, including seasonal and spread patterns; historical daily
charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies.

2014 Historical Indices:  a 188-page volume of seasonal
analysis on major US stock index futures,
including S&P500, SP Midcap 400, NASDAQ, DJIA, Russell 2000 and also
for 8 international indices;
with 62 US and 112 international seasonal strategies.

Call 1-800-927-7259 or 1-541-933-5340 or else send an
e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to find out more and be among the
first to see this new research.

Physical Commodities


The CRB Index (enter $CRB in Free Charts at stockcharts.com) tumbled from 313 last June down to a low of 207 in March.  By several measures at its most oversold in years but with divergences showing up on several technical indicators, the Index recovered and has now closed well over its 50-day moving average.  In fact, through the end of April, it was challenging resistance at February's bounce high at 230.

It is a stealth rally.  No commodity is running like a bull.  In fact, several markets are at best trading sideways metals, oil while others appear simply to be staging oversold or recovery bounces.

Several are attributed to the recent weakness in the US dollar.  For others (grains, soy & softs), hedge funds are said to be overly short, making them vulnerable to short-covering rallies if and when they find a trigger.

In other words, there are few commodity bulls.  Some bears may concede the need for a relief rally but only to give them another shorting opportunity.

South American crops grains, soy, coffee, sugar all appear to be huge.  The weather for US crops looks good.  Can anyone discern a fundamental reason for oil ever to rally again.  Just how high can the US dollar go as the yen and euro fall apart?

I don't know, but I for one would be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Tuesday, 05 May 2015 07:13
 

May 2015 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports


MRCI has begun publishing a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.  Hot off the press in early April:

2015 Historical Soy :a 178-page volume of seasonal analysis for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil; includes seasonal patterns for each delivery, calendar spreads, and crush spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2015 Historical Grains: a 174-page volume of seasonal analysis for corn, oats, wheat (W, KW, MW), including seasonal patterns for each delivery, spreads between deliveries, and also corn/oats and corn/wheat spreads; with 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2015 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  a 148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live cattle and feeder cattle, including seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads among them, and feeder/fat spreads; with historical daily charts and also cash and basis charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2015 Historical Lean Hogs and Hogs/Cattle Spreads: a 128-page volume of seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for hog/cattle spreads, including seasonal and spread patterns; historical daily charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies.

Call 1-800-927-7259 or 1-541-933-5340 or else send an e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to find out more and be among the first to see this new research.

Physical Commodities


Has the commodity complex finally hit bottom?

(Although its exact composition is a mystery to your editor, daily and weekly charts of what is titled Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index can be found by going to stockcharts.com.  Simply enter $CRB.)

Per its chart, the CRB began falling last June from 313, plunged by January to 211, bounced into February to 230, and then fell again to a new low in March at just under 207.  But rather than continue lower, its daily and weekly charts seem to be trying to complete a bottom of some sort yet again.

And the first day of April was a sight to behold.  Gold soared $25.  Crude oil ran $2.49 higher.  Wheat and soybeans were both up 16 cents.  Even beaten down sugar rose 0.39 cent; coffee 1.95.

One-day wonders?  Or a sign of big money being reallocated to cheap assets with great potential?

With hedge funds historically short in wheat, dry weather has plagued major US wheat-growing regions.  Commercial shorts were low in gold.  Conventional wisdom had it that the US dollar had begun a major secular bull market.  Deflation was being bandied about as if commodity prices had nowhere to go but down - maybe forever.

I don't know, but I for one would be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Thursday, 02 April 2015 10:02
 
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