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June 2015 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports


MRCI has begun publishing a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.  Hot off the press in early May:

2015 Historical Softs:  a 154-page volume of seasonal
analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, rice, sugar; with
seasonal patterns for each delivery and some calendar spreads; includes
84 seasonal and spread srategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2015 Historical Soy:  a 178-page volume of seasonal
analysis for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil; includes seasonal
patterns for each delivery,
calendar spreads, and crush spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread
strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2015 Historical Grains:  a 174-page volume of seasonal
analysis for corn, oats, wheat (W, KW, MW), including seasonal patterns
for each delivery, spreads
between deliveries, and also corn/oats and corn/wheat spreads; with
122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2015 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  a
148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live cattle and feeder cattle,
including seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads among
them, and feeder/fat spreads; with historical daily charts
and also cash and basis charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2015 Historical Lean Hogs and Hogs/Cattle Spreads:  a
128-page volume of seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for hog/cattle
spreads, including seasonal and spread patterns; historical daily
charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies.

2014 Historical Indices:  a 188-page volume of seasonal
analysis on major US stock index futures,
including S&P500, SP Midcap 400, NASDAQ, DJIA, Russell 2000 and also
for 8 international indices;
with 62 US and 112 international seasonal strategies.

Call 1-800-927-7259 or 1-541-933-5340 or else send an
e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to find out more and be among the
first to see this new research.

Physical Commodities


The CRB Index (enter $CRB in Free Charts at stockcharts.com) tumbled from 313 last June down to a low of 207 in March.  By several measures at its most oversold in years but with divergences showing up on several technical indicators, the Index recovered and has now closed well over its 50-day moving average.  In fact, through the end of April, it was challenging resistance at February's bounce high at 230.

It is a stealth rally.  No commodity is running like a bull.  In fact, several markets are at best trading sideways metals, oil while others appear simply to be staging oversold or recovery bounces.

Several are attributed to the recent weakness in the US dollar.  For others (grains, soy & softs), hedge funds are said to be overly short, making them vulnerable to short-covering rallies if and when they find a trigger.

In other words, there are few commodity bulls.  Some bears may concede the need for a relief rally but only to give them another shorting opportunity.

South American crops grains, soy, coffee, sugar all appear to be huge.  The weather for US crops looks good.  Can anyone discern a fundamental reason for oil ever to rally again.  Just how high can the US dollar go as the yen and euro fall apart?

I don't know, but I for one would be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Tuesday, 05 May 2015 07:13
 

May 2015 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports


MRCI has begun publishing a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.  Hot off the press in early April:

2015 Historical Soy :a 178-page volume of seasonal analysis for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil; includes seasonal patterns for each delivery, calendar spreads, and crush spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2015 Historical Grains: a 174-page volume of seasonal analysis for corn, oats, wheat (W, KW, MW), including seasonal patterns for each delivery, spreads between deliveries, and also corn/oats and corn/wheat spreads; with 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2015 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  a 148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live cattle and feeder cattle, including seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads among them, and feeder/fat spreads; with historical daily charts and also cash and basis charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2015 Historical Lean Hogs and Hogs/Cattle Spreads: a 128-page volume of seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for hog/cattle spreads, including seasonal and spread patterns; historical daily charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies.

Call 1-800-927-7259 or 1-541-933-5340 or else send an e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to find out more and be among the first to see this new research.

Physical Commodities


Has the commodity complex finally hit bottom?

(Although its exact composition is a mystery to your editor, daily and weekly charts of what is titled Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index can be found by going to stockcharts.com.  Simply enter $CRB.)

Per its chart, the CRB began falling last June from 313, plunged by January to 211, bounced into February to 230, and then fell again to a new low in March at just under 207.  But rather than continue lower, its daily and weekly charts seem to be trying to complete a bottom of some sort yet again.

And the first day of April was a sight to behold.  Gold soared $25.  Crude oil ran $2.49 higher.  Wheat and soybeans were both up 16 cents.  Even beaten down sugar rose 0.39 cent; coffee 1.95.

One-day wonders?  Or a sign of big money being reallocated to cheap assets with great potential?

With hedge funds historically short in wheat, dry weather has plagued major US wheat-growing regions.  Commercial shorts were low in gold.  Conventional wisdom had it that the US dollar had begun a major secular bull market.  Deflation was being bandied about as if commodity prices had nowhere to go but down - maybe forever.

I don't know, but I for one would be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Thursday, 02 April 2015 10:02
 

April 2015 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports


MRCI has begun publishing a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.  Hot off the press in early March:

2015 Historical Grains:  a 174-page volume of seasonal analysis for corn, oats, wheat (W, KW, MW), including seasonal patterns for each delivery, spreads
between deliveries, and also corn/oats and corn/wheat spreads; with 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2015 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  a 148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live cattle and feeder cattle, including seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads among them, and "feeder/fat" spreads; with historical daily charts and also cash and basis charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2015 Historical Lean Hogs and Hogs/Cattle Spreads:  a 128-page volume of seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for hog/cattle spreads, including seasonal and spread patterns; historical daily charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies.

Call 1-800-927-7259 or 1-541-933-5340 or else send an e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to find out more and be among the first to see this new research.

More Notes

Readers are encouraged to go to pages 73-75 of this issue to look at the results for all MRCI seasonal, spread, and WSC strategies with 2014 entries.  Those results are both tabulated by sector and plotted in hypothetical equity curves.  On page 76 you can see equity curves for MRCI seasonal and spread strategies plotted since mid 1989 and for WSC strategies since its inception in mid 1997.

Physical Commodities


Trying to stabilize after a severe downtrend, the CRB (go to stockcharts.com, select Free Charts, and enter $CRB) has actually bounced modestly to test its 50-day moving average.  Was that it?  Or is the commodity complex consolidating before turning lower?

Last June, the Index traded as high as 313.  In the following brutal seven months, it declined relentlessly down to 211 a loss of 33%!  In February, it bounced for the first time, getting up to almost 230.  But the 50-dma rejected it, and by late February it had retraced halfway back down to 220.54.

Will it base and try to retrace more of its decline?  Harvest (wheat) and planting seasons are just now approaching.  Will oil recover, even modestly?

I don't know, but I for one would be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Tuesday, 03 March 2015 12:29
 

March 2015 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI has begun publishing a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.  Hot off the press in early January:

2015 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle a 148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live cattle and feeder cattle, including seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads among them, and feeder/fat spreads; with historical daily charts and also cash and basis charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2015 Historical Lean Hogs and Hogs/Cattle Spreads:  a 128-page volume of seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for hog/cattle spreads, including seasonal and spread patterns; historical daily
charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2014 Historical Indices:  a 188-page volume of seasonal analysis on major US stock index futures, including S&P500, SP Midcap 400, NASDAQ, DJIA, Russell 2000 and also for 8 international indices; with 62 US and 112 international seasonal strategies.

Call 1-800-927-7259 or 1-541-933-5340 or else send an e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to find out more and be among the first to see this new research.

Physical Commodities

Is the cure for low prices still lower prices?

Seriously, folks.  Isn't this commodity liquidation getting a little bit overdone especially given the strong economy driving the stock market?  Is there a disconnect somewhere?

The $CCI (the old Continuous Commodity Index that was the old CRB Index and now found at stockcharts.com) had a high of 569 in April 2014.  At the end of January 2015, it was testing 430 gouging out almost 25% of its value in 9 months.  Some other indices show a loss of 33% in just the last 7 months!

Granted, the US dollar soared.  But Commitments of Traders reports show that commercials hold record short positions in the world's reserve currency and speculators record shorts in euros.  Commercials most typically hold enormous long positions at a bottom and enormous shorts at a top.  Will "this time be different"?

Crude oil collapsed.  Even though some producers may be pumping even harder now to make up for less profit, how many will pump at a loss for how long?

To paraphrase John Maynard Keynes:  Will these commodity markets stay irrational longer than the world can stay solvent?

I don't know, but I for one would be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Tuesday, 03 February 2015 13:14
 

February 2015 Editor Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports


MRCI has begun publishing a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.  Hot off the press in early January:

2015 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: a 148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live cattle and feeder cattle, including seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads among them, and feeder/fat spreads; with historical daily charts and also cash and basis charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2015 Historical Lean Hogs and Hogs/Cattle Spreads: a 128-page volume of seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for hog/cattle spreads, including seasonal and spread patterns; historical daily charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Call 1-800-927-7259 or 1-541-933-5340 or else send an e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to find out more and be among the first to see this new research
.

Physical Commodities


2014 ended with a dull thud for nearly all physical commodities, with almost any commodity index ever devised closing the year at its lowest level in more than four years.  Stocks soared, the US dollar soared, and bonds held their own.  Interest rates are negligible, inflation nonexistent.  Everything is beautiful.

Goldilocks, anyone?

What does it all mean?  Will no one ever eat again?  Or, except for cattle and, to a lesser degree, hogs, do we just have too much food?  Will no one need sugar, coffee, cocoa?  Apparently the world is flooded with not only food but also energy.

We are far better off with stocks.  Maybe we cannot eat them or warm ourselves with them, but we can always find a greater fool who will buy them.

Are the central banks of the world idiots for accumulating gold, for wanting to repatriate their own ingots?  Why do they not wisely accumulate shares of Facebook instead?  
Or stuff dollar bills under their mattresses?  Or invest in 30-year bonds paying less than 3% interest?  
Or buy a house with only 3% down?

Who needs commodities?

I don't know, but I for one would be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke
Last Updated on Friday, 09 January 2015 13:12
 
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