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November 2017 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Metals: this 84-page volume contains seasonal analysis for gold, silver, platinum, and copper; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; includes 72 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2017 Historical Interest Rates: this 222-page volume of seasonal analysis for not only US Treasury bonds and notes and Eurodollars but also several international sovereign debt instruments; with 206 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas; also introduces ratio spreads recognized by US exchanges for margin purposes.

CRB & Physical Commodities


Heads and shoulders (H&S)?!?

The CRB Index is trying to build out the right shoulder of a potential H&S bottom on a weekly chart.  It fell back from the neckline (~184) on the first day of October, but ...

Copper, usually considered a leading indicator, appears to have completed a breakout from a 3-year weekly H&S bottom, and may be looking to retest its breakout in the area of $2.75-2.80.

Even crude oil appears to be working on a potential H&S bottom, with a neckline near $52.50.

'Tis the season for harvest lows in soybeans and corn.  So far, soybeans made a low in June, then a higher pre-harvest low in August.  If they cannot make a new low coincident with the harvest glut, does that suggest a market building a bullish base?  Corn made a new pre-harvest low in August.  Can it make a new low in October/November?  If not, what does that mean?

Gold, silver, platinum were all under pressure going into October, but all three traditionally rally during the gift-giving season.  (If they do not, that could certainly suggest serious weakness.)

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should
be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke
Last Updated on Tuesday, 03 October 2017 09:47
 

October 2017 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Interest Rates: this 222-page volume of seasonal analysis for not only US Treasury bonds and notes and Eurodollars but also several international sovereign debt instruments; with 206 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas; also introduces ratio spreads recognized by US exchanges for margin purposes.

Recently published:

2017 Historical Forex:  this 207-page volume contains seasonal analysis for the US dollar index; Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars; British pounds; eurocurrencies; Mexican pesos; Japanese yen; and Swiss francs; includes 78 seasonal and 158 spread strategies.



CRB & Physical Commodities


Good news/bad news (depends on perspective).  The bad news (for bulls) was that August disappointed.  The CRB Index (stockcharts.com, Free Charts, type in $CRB in the spot for Create
a Sharp Chart) had rallied off a significant low in June but fell in August.

But it was not even a 50% retracement, and it was a retest of the 50-day moving average.  The Index bounced from there, but pulled back again late in the month as grains continued lower and energies softened.

But the last day of August may have been telling.  Granted, volume was low just before the end-of-summer holiday.  But the only sellers to be found were in cattle and the US dollar!  Nearly every commodity and stock and bond and currency closed higher!  In fact, the CRB Index closed the month with a magnificent, massive, wide-range bar up!

Why?  Ah, the dollar.  The dollar index made its 14-year high on the first day of trading in 2017 and has trended lower ever since.  Oversold?  Maybe.

How much will the US spend for Harvey storm recovery?  The debt ceiling mayincrease spending.  The 2018 budget with huge Pentagon slush fund?  All-out tax cuts financed by deficit spending?  What may a fiscal free lunch do to the US dollar?  All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Friday, 01 September 2017 10:53
 

September 2017 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Forex: this 207-page volume contains seasonal analysis for the US dollar index; Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars; British pounds; eurocurrencies; Mexican pesos; Japanese yen; and Swiss francs; includes 78 seasonal and 158 spread strategies.

Only recently published:

2017 Historical Brent: the perfect complement to 2017 Historical Energy, this 124-page special report on Brent crude oil, the benchmark for much of the world's crude oil market, and gasoil (heating oil); seasonal patterns and weekly charts both for each delivery month and for several spreads; includes seasonal and spread strategies for Brent (24), gasoil (34), and Brent/Crude Light (16) spreads.

CRB & Physical Commodities


In January and February 2016, the venerable CRB Index (stockcharts.com, click on Free Charts, and in the box for Create a SharpChart type in $CRB) made a double bottom just below 155 after a multi-year decline.  It then bounced into a 20-point sideways range bounded by about 196 and 176, where it remained until May when it broke through the low.  By June it had fallen to barely 166, where it looked like a new round of deflation or at least disinflation had begun.  And indeed it was touted as such.

But a funny thing happened on the way toward lower prices.  From the June 22 low (first full day of summer!) at 166.48, the CRB began to rally actually reaching 182.69 on the last day of July.  Three legs up in Elliot Wave parlance is bullish.

Now what?  After suffering from severe weather that initially drove the CRB Index up, wheat, corn, and soybeans sold off.  Crude oil is reacting off $50.

But precious metals with bullish Commitment of Traders reports ran up a little further.  Copper, having somewhat surprisingly made a new two-year high, was holding just below heavy resistance at $3.

What  about the dollar?

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Wednesday, 02 August 2017 11:15
 

August 2017 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Energy: this 278-page volume contains seasonal analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns for each delivery and several spreads against each, weekly and basis charts; a total of 190 seasonal, spread, product, and crack strategies for year-round trading.

Recently published:

2017 Historical Softs: this 154-page volume explores seasonal tendencies for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice with seasonal patterns and 84 strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2017 Historical Soy Complex: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil; includes 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas, with calendar, product, and crush spreads.

2017 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KCBT, MGE); includes 122 seasonal and spread strategies , both inter- and intramarket,  for year-round trading ideas.

2017 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live and feeder cattle includes cash, basis, and historical daily charts; best of all, it presents 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2017 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume of seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for hog/cattle spreads includes historical daily charts, 46 seasonal and spread strategies for hogs, and 30 hog/cattle spread strategies.


Physical Commodities


The CRB Index (stockcharts.com, Free Charts, enter $CRB) made a multi-year low in February 2016 at 155.  After a rally to 196 in June, it has remained in a range between 196 on the high side and 177 on the low side.  On June 1, it closed at 179, poised to test if not break below the bottom of that range.

And that with the US dollar having made a multi-year high on the first business day of the 2017 and trending lower through May 2017 to a 6-month low!

Accepted conventional wisdom had been that commodities would move opposite the US$.  Indeed, its strength had been the excuse for commodity weakness since at least mid 2014.  Why, oh why, were commodities now not responding to this dollar decline?

Are commodities that weak, that they cannot rally even as the dollar drops?  Or do commodities know that the dollar is just taking a breather in a macro-bull market?  Or is the dollar dropping only because interest rates are soft, signalling economic weakness and lack of commodity demand?  If so, why is so much money flowing into the US stock market?  Can it hold up, let alone continue to rally?

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke
Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 July 2017 08:12
 

July 2017 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Energy:  this 278-page volume contains seasonal analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns for each delivery and several spreads against each, weekly and basis charts; a total of 190 seasonal, spread, product, and crack strategies for year-round trading.

Recently published:

2017 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume explores seasonal tendencies for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice with seasonal patterns and 84 strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2017 Historical Soy Complex:  this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil; includes 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas, with calendar, product, and crush spreads.

2017 Historical Grains:  this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KCBT, MGE); includes 122 seasonal and spread strategies , both inter- and intramarket,  for year-round trading ideas.

2017 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live and feeder cattle includes cash, basis, and historical daily charts; best of all, it presents 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2017 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads:  this 126-page volume of seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for hog/cattle spreads includes historical daily charts, 46 seasonal and spread strategies for hogs, and 30 hog/cattle spread strategies.


Physical Commodities

The CRB Index (stockcharts.com, Free Charts, enter $CRB) made a multi-year low in February 2016 at 155.  After a rally to 196 in June, it has remained in a range between 196 on the high side and 177 on the low side.  On June 1, it closed at 179, poised to test if not break below the bottom of that range.

And that with the US dollar having made a multi-year high on the first business day of the 2017 and trending lower through May 2017 to a 6-month low!

Accepted conventional wisdom had been that commodities would move opposite the US$.  Indeed, its strength had been the excuse for commodity weakness since at least mid 2014.  Why, oh why, were commodities now not responding to this dollar decline?

Are commodities that weak, that they cannot rally even as the dollar drops?  Or do commodities know that the dollar is just taking a breather in a macro-bull market?  Or is the dollar dropping only because interest rates are soft, signalling economic weakness and lack of commodity demand?  If so, why is so much money flowing into the US stock market?  Can it hold up, let alone continue to rally?

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 July 2017 08:05
 
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