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September 2017 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Forex: this 207-page volume contains seasonal analysis for the US dollar index; Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars; British pounds; eurocurrencies; Mexican pesos; Japanese yen; and Swiss francs; includes 78 seasonal and 158 spread strategies.

Only recently published:

2017 Historical Brent: the perfect complement to 2017 Historical Energy, this 124-page special report on Brent crude oil, the benchmark for much of the world's crude oil market, and gasoil (heating oil); seasonal patterns and weekly charts both for each delivery month and for several spreads; includes seasonal and spread strategies for Brent (24), gasoil (34), and Brent/Crude Light (16) spreads.

CRB & Physical Commodities


In January and February 2016, the venerable CRB Index (stockcharts.com, click on Free Charts, and in the box for Create a SharpChart type in $CRB) made a double bottom just below 155 after a multi-year decline.  It then bounced into a 20-point sideways range bounded by about 196 and 176, where it remained until May when it broke through the low.  By June it had fallen to barely 166, where it looked like a new round of deflation or at least disinflation had begun.  And indeed it was touted as such.

But a funny thing happened on the way toward lower prices.  From the June 22 low (first full day of summer!) at 166.48, the CRB began to rally actually reaching 182.69 on the last day of July.  Three legs up in Elliot Wave parlance is bullish.

Now what?  After suffering from severe weather that initially drove the CRB Index up, wheat, corn, and soybeans sold off.  Crude oil is reacting off $50.

But precious metals with bullish Commitment of Traders reports ran up a little further.  Copper, having somewhat surprisingly made a new two-year high, was holding just below heavy resistance at $3.

What  about the dollar?

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Wednesday, 02 August 2017 11:15
 

August 2017 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Energy: this 278-page volume contains seasonal analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns for each delivery and several spreads against each, weekly and basis charts; a total of 190 seasonal, spread, product, and crack strategies for year-round trading.

Recently published:

2017 Historical Softs: this 154-page volume explores seasonal tendencies for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice with seasonal patterns and 84 strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2017 Historical Soy Complex: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil; includes 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas, with calendar, product, and crush spreads.

2017 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KCBT, MGE); includes 122 seasonal and spread strategies , both inter- and intramarket,  for year-round trading ideas.

2017 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live and feeder cattle includes cash, basis, and historical daily charts; best of all, it presents 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2017 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume of seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for hog/cattle spreads includes historical daily charts, 46 seasonal and spread strategies for hogs, and 30 hog/cattle spread strategies.


Physical Commodities


The CRB Index (stockcharts.com, Free Charts, enter $CRB) made a multi-year low in February 2016 at 155.  After a rally to 196 in June, it has remained in a range between 196 on the high side and 177 on the low side.  On June 1, it closed at 179, poised to test if not break below the bottom of that range.

And that with the US dollar having made a multi-year high on the first business day of the 2017 and trending lower through May 2017 to a 6-month low!

Accepted conventional wisdom had been that commodities would move opposite the US$.  Indeed, its strength had been the excuse for commodity weakness since at least mid 2014.  Why, oh why, were commodities now not responding to this dollar decline?

Are commodities that weak, that they cannot rally even as the dollar drops?  Or do commodities know that the dollar is just taking a breather in a macro-bull market?  Or is the dollar dropping only because interest rates are soft, signalling economic weakness and lack of commodity demand?  If so, why is so much money flowing into the US stock market?  Can it hold up, let alone continue to rally?

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke
Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 July 2017 08:12
 

July 2017 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Energy:  this 278-page volume contains seasonal analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns for each delivery and several spreads against each, weekly and basis charts; a total of 190 seasonal, spread, product, and crack strategies for year-round trading.

Recently published:

2017 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume explores seasonal tendencies for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice with seasonal patterns and 84 strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2017 Historical Soy Complex:  this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil; includes 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas, with calendar, product, and crush spreads.

2017 Historical Grains:  this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KCBT, MGE); includes 122 seasonal and spread strategies , both inter- and intramarket,  for year-round trading ideas.

2017 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live and feeder cattle includes cash, basis, and historical daily charts; best of all, it presents 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2017 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads:  this 126-page volume of seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for hog/cattle spreads includes historical daily charts, 46 seasonal and spread strategies for hogs, and 30 hog/cattle spread strategies.


Physical Commodities

The CRB Index (stockcharts.com, Free Charts, enter $CRB) made a multi-year low in February 2016 at 155.  After a rally to 196 in June, it has remained in a range between 196 on the high side and 177 on the low side.  On June 1, it closed at 179, poised to test if not break below the bottom of that range.

And that with the US dollar having made a multi-year high on the first business day of the 2017 and trending lower through May 2017 to a 6-month low!

Accepted conventional wisdom had been that commodities would move opposite the US$.  Indeed, its strength had been the excuse for commodity weakness since at least mid 2014.  Why, oh why, were commodities now not responding to this dollar decline?

Are commodities that weak, that they cannot rally even as the dollar drops?  Or do commodities know that the dollar is just taking a breather in a macro-bull market?  Or is the dollar dropping only because interest rates are soft, signalling economic weakness and lack of commodity demand?  If so, why is so much money flowing into the US stock market?  Can it hold up, let alone continue to rally?

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 July 2017 08:05
 

June 2017 Editors Comments

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Physical Commodities


Ever since April 2016, the CRB Index (go to stockcharts.com; click on Free Charts; in the box under Sharp Charts, type in $CRB) has been trading in a range mostly 180-196.  At the end of April, it was testing the bottom of that range again.

It did so as the US dollar remained at or near its five-month lows and barely holding onto its 200-day moving average.  Crude oil remained weak, in the middle of its multi-month range of $43-55.  Gold was suffering a two-week long decline, but silver was barely holding multi-month lows just under $17.

The most recent bright spots for commodity bulls were cattle and suddenly? temporarily? grains.  Bull spreading was a feature in cattle, with cash over the nearby and successive delivery months racing higher after expiry of that preceding.  Only weeks after the USDA had reported winter wheat acreage as the least since the 1930s, primary hard red winter wheat growing states received as much as 12 inches of snow on April 30.  How much damage will there be?  Corn planting has been a little slow, and soybean and cotton planting just underway.

What will Mother Nature do?  How about the US$?

Maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,
Jerry Toepke
Last Updated on Tuesday, 02 May 2017 11:44
 

May 2017 Editors Comments

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Physical Commodities


Commodities have become an asset class generally ignored by investors.  Does everybody still want stocks?  Really?

Yes, yes - inflation is/seems low.  Interest rates are low.  Tax cuts are (supposedly) on the horizon.  World GDP growth may be slow but is/seems steady.

Major commodities seem overburdened with supply.  Way too much oil - with the potential for much more on any price rise.  Too many soybeans on hand, enormous South American crops being harvested now, potentially enormous US crop.  Plenty of corn.

Plentiful supplies of wheat, but wait what's this?  All US planted wheat acreage estimated to be the lowest since records began in 1919? US corn planting is just barely getting started, and soybeans
are a month away.  Weather can be shall we say variable.

What if the US dollar weakens?  What if the US stock market weakens?  Where will money go?  To the bond market?  Really?  When the Fed wants to raise rates?

Do wise investors buy markets that everybody else wants to buy?  Or do they buy markets that nobody is even thinking about?

Maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke
Last Updated on Wednesday, 05 April 2017 05:28
 
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