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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Aug 31, 2016
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#NDX Higher Aug 4730.20 4837.70 4689.60 4771.10 55% 30 17 15 88% 4837.70 5140.82 4771.10
#RUT Higher Aug 1219.95 1251.35 1198.75 1239.90 78% 37 21 19 90% 1251.35 1309.22 1239.90
HOX6 Higher Aug 135.49 156.62 129.35 144.49 56% 37 20 18 90% 156.62 169.02 144.49
HOZ6 Higher Aug 137.35 158.02 131.24 146.15 56% 37 20 18 90% 158.02 170.42 146.15
HOH7 Higher Aug 141.13 160.48 135.56 149.67 57% 37 20 17 85% 160.48 171.95 149.67
RBX6 Higher Aug 122.43 142.84 118.70 132.26 56% 31 18 17 94% 142.84 155.51 132.26
RBZ6 Higher Aug 122.14 141.84 118.00 131.32 56% 31 16 14 88% 141.84 153.34 131.32
RBF7 Higher Aug 122.99 142.06 118.60 131.73 56% 31 15 13 87% 142.06 151.65 131.73
NGX6 Lower Aug 3.076 3.075 2.767 3.003 77% 26 14 13 93% 2.767 2.339 3.003
NGZ6 Lower Aug 3.320 3.325 3.010 3.203 61% 26 13 12 92% 3.010 2.577 3.203
NGF7 Lower Aug 3.436 3.443 3.142 3.326 61% 26 14 12 86% 3.142 2.762 3.326
FCX6 Higher Aug 135.250 143.680 130.680 135.430 37% 44 23 20 87% 143.680 149.630 135.430
HEZ6 Higher Aug 54.750 58.450 53.550 57.530 81% 45 17 15 88% 58.450 63.172 57.530
JOX6 Higher Aug 175.00 191.30 169.30 184.10 67% 45 24 21 88% 191.30 208.56 184.10
SBH7 Higher Aug 19.44 21.37 19.18 20.56 63% 45 20 18 90% 21.37 24.37 20.56


NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 4730.20(Prev Close), the market ended August at 4771.10(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 4689.60(Month Low) to 4837.70(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #NDX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 4837.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 5140.82(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1219.95(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1239.90(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 1198.75(Month Low) to 1251.35(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #RUT went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 1251.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1309.22(Average Objective).

November NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOX6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 135.49(Prev Close), the market ended August at 144.49(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 129.35(Month Low) to 156.62(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HOX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOX should exceed 156.62(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 169.02(Average Objective).

December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 137.35(Prev Close), the market ended August at 146.15(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 131.24(Month Low) to 158.02(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HOZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOZ should exceed 158.02(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 170.42(Average Objective).

March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 141.13(Prev Close), the market ended August at 149.67(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 135.56(Month Low) to 160.48(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HOH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should exceed 160.48(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 171.95(Average Objective).

November RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBX6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 122.43(Prev Close), the market ended August at 132.26(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 118.70(Month Low) to 142.84(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, RBX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBX should exceed 142.84(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 155.51(Average Objective).

December RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 122.14(Prev Close), the market ended August at 131.32(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 118.00(Month Low) to 141.84(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RBZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBZ should exceed 141.84(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 153.34(Average Objective).

January RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBF7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 122.99(Prev Close), the market ended August at 131.73(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 118.60(Month Low) to 142.06(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, RBF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBF should exceed 142.06(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 151.65(Average Objective).

November Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGX6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 3.076(Prev Close), the market ended August at 3.003(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 2.767(Month Low) to 3.075(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGX went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGX should penetrate 2.767(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2.339(Average Objective).

December Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 3.320(Prev Close), the market ended August at 3.203(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 3.010(Month Low) to 3.325(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 3.010(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2.577(Average Objective).

January Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGF7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 3.436(Prev Close), the market ended August at 3.326(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 3.142(Month Low) to 3.443(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGF went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 3.142(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2.762(Average Objective).

November Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCX6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 135.250(Prev Close), the market ended August at 135.430(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 130.680(Month Low) to 143.680(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, FCX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should exceed 143.680(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 149.630(Average Objective).

December Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 54.750(Prev Close), the market ended August at 57.530(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 53.550(Month Low) to 58.450(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, HEZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEZ should exceed 58.450(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 63.172(Average Objective).

November Orange Juice(ICE)
The JOX6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 175.00(Prev Close), the market ended August at 184.10(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 169.30(Month Low) to 191.30(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Orange Juice(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, JOX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOX should exceed 191.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 208.56(Average Objective).

March Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 19.44(Prev Close), the market ended August at 20.56(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 19.18(Month Low) to 21.37(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SBH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should exceed 21.37(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 24.37(Average Objective).
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