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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary May 31, 2016
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#TRAN Lower May 7872.00 7955.00 7470.00 7798.00 68% 45 20 17 85% 7470.00 7010.21 7798.00
#OEX Higher May 915.00 931.00 898.10 927.65 90% 40 23 21 91% 931.00 969.68 927.65
#NDX Higher May 4341.30 4526.80 4282.00 4523.90 99% 30 20 19 95% 4526.80 4753.04 4523.90
#RUT Higher May 1130.85 1158.95 1085.95 1154.80 94% 37 24 21 88% 1158.95 1218.46 1154.80
#MID Higher May 1461.65 1498.40 1419.75 1493.05 93% 35 23 21 91% 1498.40 1564.56 1493.05
#SSNI Higher May 16666 17251 15975 17235 99% 34 17 15 88% 17251 17992 17235
SPU6 Higher May 2051.20 2093.50 2014.40 2086.70 91% 34 22 19 86% 2093.50 2174.46 2086.70
USU6 Higher May 161~300 165~170 160~200 163~100 55% 38 17 17 100% 165~170 171~311 163~100
EUU6 Lower May 115.02 116.66 111.41 111.69 5% 17 11 10 91% 111.41 108.80 111.69
DXU6 Higher May 93.148 95.980 92.000 95.892 98% 30 19 17 89% 95.980 97.956 95.892
ITCOZ6 Higher May 48.83 52.11 45.62 51.21 86% 24 10 9 90% 52.11 56.64 51.21
ITCOF7 Higher May 49.05 52.35 46.03 51.47 86% 24 10 9 90% 52.35 56.71 51.47
RBU6 Higher May 157.03 163.41 142.95 159.71 82% 31 16 14 88% 163.41 175.55 159.71
RBV6 Higher May 142.31 149.10 129.57 145.85 83% 31 16 14 88% 149.10 160.02 145.85
RBX6 Higher May 138.62 145.53 126.60 142.43 84% 30 13 11 85% 145.53 155.85 142.43
NGU6 Lower May 2.457 2.451 2.195 2.438 95% 26 14 13 93% 2.195 1.825 2.438
NGX6 Lower May 2.730 2.736 2.460 2.722 95% 26 13 11 85% 2.460 2.147 2.722
SX6 Higher May 1007.75 1079.75 997.00 1055.75 71% 45 22 21 95% 1079.75 1214.65 1055.75
BOQ6 Lower May 33.26 33.93 30.90 31.94 34% 45 24 21 88% 30.90 27.83 31.94
BOU6 Lower May 33.39 34.04 31.02 32.05 34% 45 22 20 91% 31.02 28.13 32.05
BOV6 Lower May 33.52 34.14 31.16 32.14 33% 45 22 21 95% 31.16 28.40 32.14
CZ6 Higher May 395.25 415.00 375.25 408.50 84% 45 21 18 86% 415.00 457.11 408.50
WU6 Lower May 498.25 503.25 465.50 475.50 26% 45 27 23 85% 465.50 420.95 475.50
WZ6 Lower May 516.00 521.25 484.00 493.50 26% 45 26 22 85% 484.00 439.41 493.50
KWU6 Lower May 494.25 493.75 458.75 463.75 14% 40 21 20 95% 458.75 419.55 463.75
KWZ6 Lower May 518.25 518.25 483.50 487.25 11% 40 21 20 95% 483.50 444.58 487.25
OU6 Lower May 214.00 215.00 197.00 201.50 25% 41 23 20 87% 197.00 173.58 201.50
OZ6 Lower May 222.00 223.75 209.75 213.25 25% 41 24 22 92% 209.75 186.33 213.25
RRU6 Lower May 11.26 12.35 11.00 11.19 14% 29 16 14 88% 11.00 9.99 11.19
LCQ6 Higher May 112.430 120.680 111.450 118.050 72% 45 20 17 85% 120.680 129.082 118.050
LCV6 Higher May 112.335 119.885 111.450 117.335 70% 45 21 18 86% 119.885 126.605 117.335
LCZ6 Higher May 112.635 119.335 112.280 116.835 65% 45 22 19 86% 119.335 124.755 116.835
LEQ6 Lower May 80.885 82.900 78.100 80.850 57% 45 22 20 91% 78.100 71.665 80.850
LEV6 Lower May 69.730 70.980 66.725 68.225 35% 45 22 19 86% 66.725 60.406 68.225
LEZ6 Lower May 64.450 65.475 62.335 63.350 32% 45 21 18 86% 62.335 55.821 63.350
SBV6 Higher May 16.59 17.82 15.93 17.66 92% 45 18 16 89% 17.82 20.73 17.66
SBH7 Higher May 17.02 18.07 16.45 17.93 91% 45 18 16 89% 18.07 20.57 17.93
CCZ6 Lower May 3204 3216 2886 2999 34% 45 26 22 85% 2886 2690 2999


Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 7872.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 7798.00(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 7470.00(Month Low) to 7955.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #TRAN went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should penetrate 7470.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 7010.21(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 915.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 927.65(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 898.10(Month Low) to 931.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #OEX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 931.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 969.68(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 4341.30(Prev Close), the market ended May at 4523.90(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 4282.00(Month Low) to 4526.80(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #NDX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 4526.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 4753.04(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1130.85(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1154.80(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 1085.95(Month Low) to 1158.95(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #RUT went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 1158.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1218.46(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1461.65(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1493.05(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 1419.75(Month Low) to 1498.40(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #MID went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1498.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1564.56(Average Objective).

Nikkei 225 Index
The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 16666(Prev Close), the market ended May at 17235(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 15975(Month Low) to 17251(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #SSNI went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 17251(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 17992(Average Objective).

September S & P 500(CME)
The SPU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2051.20(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2086.70(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 2014.40(Month Low) to 2093.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SPU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 2093.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 2174.46(Average Objective).

September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 161~300(Prev Close), the market ended May at 163~100(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 160~200(Month Low) to 165~170(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, USU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 165~170(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 171~311(Average Objective).

September EuroFX(CME)
The EUU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 115.02(Prev Close), the market ended May at 111.69(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 111.41(Month Low) to 116.66(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, EUU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUU should penetrate 111.41(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 108.80(Average Objective).

September US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 93.148(Prev Close), the market ended May at 95.892(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 92.000(Month Low) to 95.980(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, DXU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should exceed 95.980(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 97.956(Average Objective).

December Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCOZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 48.83(Prev Close), the market ended May at 51.21(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 45.62(Month Low) to 52.11(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, ITCOZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOZ should exceed 52.11(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 56.64(Average Objective).

January Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCOF7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 49.05(Prev Close), the market ended May at 51.47(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 46.03(Month Low) to 52.35(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, ITCOF went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOF should exceed 52.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 56.71(Average Objective).

September RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 157.03(Prev Close), the market ended May at 159.71(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 142.95(Month Low) to 163.41(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RBU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should exceed 163.41(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 175.55(Average Objective).

October RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBV6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 142.31(Prev Close), the market ended May at 145.85(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 129.57(Month Low) to 149.10(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RBV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBV should exceed 149.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 160.02(Average Objective).

November RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBX6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 138.62(Prev Close), the market ended May at 142.43(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 126.60(Month Low) to 145.53(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RBX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBX should exceed 145.53(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 155.85(Average Objective).

September Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2.457(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2.438(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 2.195(Month Low) to 2.451(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should penetrate 2.195(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1.825(Average Objective).

November Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGX6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2.730(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2.722(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 2.460(Month Low) to 2.736(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGX went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGX should penetrate 2.460(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.147(Average Objective).

November Soybeans(CBOT)
The SX6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1007.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1055.75(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 997.00(Month Low) to 1079.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 1079.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1214.65(Average Objective).

August Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOQ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 33.26(Prev Close), the market ended May at 31.94(Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 30.90(Month Low) to 33.93(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, BOQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should penetrate 30.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 27.83(Average Objective).

September Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 33.39(Prev Close), the market ended May at 32.05(Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 31.02(Month Low) to 34.04(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, BOU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 31.02(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 28.13(Average Objective).

October Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOV6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 33.52(Prev Close), the market ended May at 32.14(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 31.16(Month Low) to 34.14(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, BOV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOV should penetrate 31.16(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 28.40(Average Objective).

December Corn(CBOT)
The CZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 395.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 408.50(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 375.25(Month Low) to 415.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should exceed 415.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 457.11(Average Objective).

September Wheat(CBOT)
The WU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 498.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 475.50(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 465.50(Month Low) to 503.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, WU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 465.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 420.95(Average Objective).

December Wheat(CBOT)
The WZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 516.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 493.50(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 484.00(Month Low) to 521.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, WZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 484.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 439.41(Average Objective).

September Wheat(KCBT)
The KWU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 494.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 463.75(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 458.75(Month Low) to 493.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, KWU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 458.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 419.55(Average Objective).

December Wheat(KCBT)
The KWZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 518.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 487.25(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 483.50(Month Low) to 518.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, KWZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWZ should penetrate 483.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 444.58(Average Objective).

September Oats(CBOT)
The OU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 214.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 201.50(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 197.00(Month Low) to 215.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, OU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OU should penetrate 197.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 173.58(Average Objective).

December Oats(CBOT)
The OZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 222.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 213.25(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 209.75(Month Low) to 223.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, OZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OZ should penetrate 209.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 186.33(Average Objective).

September Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 11.26(Prev Close), the market ended May at 11.19(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 11.00(Month Low) to 12.35(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RRU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 11.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 9.99(Average Objective).

August Live Cattle(CME)
The LCQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 112.430(Prev Close), the market ended May at 118.050(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 111.450(Month Low) to 120.680(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LCQ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 120.680(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 129.082(Average Objective).

October Live Cattle(CME)
The LCV6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 112.335(Prev Close), the market ended May at 117.335(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 111.450(Month Low) to 119.885(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LCV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 119.885(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 126.605(Average Objective).

December Live Cattle(CME)
The LCZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 112.635(Prev Close), the market ended May at 116.835(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 112.280(Month Low) to 119.335(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LCZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 119.335(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 124.755(Average Objective).

August Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEQ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 80.885(Prev Close), the market ended May at 80.850(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 78.100(Month Low) to 82.900(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LEQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEQ should penetrate 78.100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 71.665(Average Objective).

October Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEV6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 69.730(Prev Close), the market ended May at 68.225(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 66.725(Month Low) to 70.980(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LEV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should penetrate 66.725(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 60.406(Average Objective).

December Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 64.450(Prev Close), the market ended May at 63.350(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 62.335(Month Low) to 65.475(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LEZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEZ should penetrate 62.335(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 55.821(Average Objective).

October Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBV6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 16.59(Prev Close), the market ended May at 17.66(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 15.93(Month Low) to 17.82(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SBV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should exceed 17.82(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 20.73(Average Objective).

March Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 17.02(Prev Close), the market ended May at 17.93(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 16.45(Month Low) to 18.07(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SBH went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should exceed 18.07(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 20.57(Average Objective).

December Cocoa(ICE)
The CCZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 3204(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2999(Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 2886(Month Low) to 3216(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, CCZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should penetrate 2886(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 2690(Average Objective).
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