MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Apr 30, 2016

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Apr

17685.00

18168.00

17484.00

17774.00

42%

90%

18168.00

18926.63

17891.00

#OEX

Higher

Apr

912.95

938.30

903.70

915.00

33%

92%

938.30

980.75

922.35

#MID

Higher

Apr

1445.20

1490.10

1411.10

1461.65

64%

86%

1490.10

1578.76

1473.65

#VLE

Higher

Apr

4540.20

4726.60

4423.20

4635.00

70%

89%

4726.60

5004.84

4662.80

#SP

Higher

Apr

2059.75

2111.05

2033.80

2065.30

41%

87%

2111.05

2207.02

2081.40

SPU6

Higher

Apr

2043.60

2096.60

2020.10

2051.20

41%

95%

2096.60

2186.02

2066.40

USU6

Lower

Apr

163~050

165~270

159~200

161~300

37%

89%

159~200

153~020

160~260

TYU6

Lower

Apr

130~090

131~075

128~285

129~295

44%

88%

128~285

125~058

129~175

EDU6

Lower

Apr

99.240

99.265

99.150

99.220

61%

100%

99.150

98.721

99.215

EDZ6

Lower

Apr

99.175

99.210

99.050

99.135

53%

92%

99.050

98.499

99.125

CDU6

Higher

Apr

77.08

80.06

75.66

79.74

93%

85%

80.06

81.65

79.69

ADU6

Lower

Apr

76.18

77.84

74.40

75.58

34%

100%

74.40

70.77

76.13

SIN6

Higher

Apr

1550.2

1802.0

1483.0

1781.9

94%

87%

1802.0

1956.9

1768.2

CLQ6

Higher

Apr

41.36

47.95

38.14

47.14

92%

90%

47.95

51.61

45.91

CLU6

Higher

Apr

41.90

48.27

38.67

47.50

92%

86%

48.27

51.74

46.26

CLV6

Higher

Apr

42.33

48.52

39.08

47.78

92%

86%

48.52

51.76

46.56

ITCOV6

Higher

Apr

42.27

49.16

38.78

48.34

92%

94%

49.16

53.00

46.99

ITCOX6

Higher

Apr

42.76

49.39

39.26

48.57

92%

94%

49.39

53.18

47.29

ITCOZ6

Higher

Apr

43.20

49.66

39.70

48.83

92%

88%

49.66

53.77

47.61

RBQ6

Higher

Apr

144.13

160.97

135.47

159.63

95%

86%

160.97

175.70

155.92

RBU6

Higher

Apr

141.18

158.48

132.78

157.03

94%

87%

158.48

171.38

153.49

NGQ6

Higher

Apr

2.212

2.494

2.151

2.412

76%

94%

2.494

2.788

2.321

NGU6

Higher

Apr

2.237

2.528

2.183

2.457

79%

94%

2.528

2.832

2.370

NGV6

Higher

Apr

2.289

2.583

2.236

2.525

83%

94%

2.583

2.849

2.449

CBQ6

Higher

Apr

41.22

48.59

37.88

47.74

92%

94%

48.59

51.65

46.24

CBU6

Higher

Apr

41.74

48.92

38.29

48.09

92%

94%

48.92

52.78

46.65

CBV6

Higher

Apr

42.27

49.16

38.78

48.34

92%

94%

49.16

53.00

46.99

BON6

Lower

Apr

34.44

35.43

33.10

33.14

89%

33.10

30.58

32.50

BOQ6

Lower

Apr

34.53

35.50

33.22

33.26

89%

33.22

30.72

32.63

BOU6

Lower

Apr

34.63

35.58

33.38

33.39

84%

33.38

30.62

32.76

CZ6

Higher

Apr

368.75

409.00

364.00

395.25

69%

86%

409.00

455.62

396.50

KWN6

Lower

Apr

487.00

509.25

452.75

478.50

46%

95%

452.75

425.57

474.25

KWU6

Lower

Apr

501.00

523.75

467.25

494.25

48%

86%

467.25

438.59

490.00

KCU6

Lower

Apr

131.25

132.90

122.20

123.35

11%

86%

122.20

106.70

121.50

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 17685.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 17774.00(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 17484.00(Month Low) to 18168.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in April than March in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #DJ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 18168.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 18926.63(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 912.95(Prev Close), the market ended April at 915.00(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 903.70(Month Low) to 938.30(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #OEX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 938.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 980.75(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1445.20(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1461.65(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 1411.10(Month Low) to 1490.10(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in April than March in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #MID went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1490.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1578.76(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 4540.20(Prev Close), the market ended April at 4635.00(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 4423.20(Month Low) to 4726.60(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #VLE went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 4726.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 5004.84(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2059.75(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2065.30(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 2033.80(Month Low) to 2111.05(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in April than March in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #SP went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2111.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 2207.02(Average Objective).
September S & P 500(CME): The SPU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2043.60(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2051.20(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 2020.10(Month Low) to 2096.60(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SPU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 2096.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 2186.02(Average Objective).
September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 163~050(Prev Close), the market ended April at 161~300(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 159~200(Month Low) to 165~270(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, USU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should penetrate 159~200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 153~020(Average Objective).
September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 130~090(Prev Close), the market ended April at 129~295(Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 128~285(Month Low) to 131~075(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, TYU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should penetrate 128~285(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 125~058(Average Objective).
September Eurodollars(CME): The EDU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 99.240(Prev Close), the market ended April at 99.220(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 99.150(Month Low) to 99.265(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EDU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 99.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 98.721(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 99.175(Prev Close), the market ended April at 99.135(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 99.050(Month Low) to 99.210(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, EDZ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should penetrate 99.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 98.499(Average Objective).
September Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 77.08(Prev Close), the market ended April at 79.74(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 75.66(Month Low) to 80.06(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, CDU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDU should exceed 80.06(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 81.65(Average Objective).
September Australian Dollar(CME): The ADU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 76.18(Prev Close), the market ended April at 75.58(Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 74.40(Month Low) to 77.84(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, ADU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should penetrate 74.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 70.77(Average Objective).
July Silver(CMX): The SIN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1550.2(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1781.9(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 1483.0(Month Low) to 1802.0(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Silver(CMX) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, SIN went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIN should exceed 1802.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1956.9(Average Objective).
August Crude Oil(NYM): The CLQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 41.36(Prev Close), the market ended April at 47.14(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 38.14(Month Low) to 47.95(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CLQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLQ should exceed 47.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 51.61(Average Objective).
September Crude Oil(NYM): The CLU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 41.90(Prev Close), the market ended April at 47.50(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 38.67(Month Low) to 48.27(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CLU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLU should exceed 48.27(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 51.74(Average Objective).
October Crude Oil(NYM): The CLV6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 42.33(Prev Close), the market ended April at 47.78(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 39.08(Month Low) to 48.52(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CLV went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLV should exceed 48.52(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 51.76(Average Objective).
October Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOV6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 42.27(Prev Close), the market ended April at 48.34(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 38.78(Month Low) to 49.16(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, ITCOV went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOV should exceed 49.16(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 53.00(Average Objective).
November Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOX6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 42.76(Prev Close), the market ended April at 48.57(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 39.26(Month Low) to 49.39(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ITCOX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOX should exceed 49.39(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 53.18(Average Objective).
December Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 43.20(Prev Close), the market ended April at 48.83(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 39.70(Month Low) to 49.66(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ITCOZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOZ should exceed 49.66(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 53.77(Average Objective).
August RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 144.13(Prev Close), the market ended April at 159.63(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 135.47(Month Low) to 160.97(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, RBQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBQ should exceed 160.97(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 175.70(Average Objective).
September RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 141.18(Prev Close), the market ended April at 157.03(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 132.78(Month Low) to 158.48(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, RBU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should exceed 158.48(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 171.38(Average Objective).
August Natural Gas(NYM): The NGQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2.212(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2.412(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 2.151(Month Low) to 2.494(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 2.494(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2.788(Average Objective).
September Natural Gas(NYM): The NGU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2.237(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2.457(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 2.183(Month Low) to 2.528(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, NGU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 2.528(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2.832(Average Objective).
October Natural Gas(NYM): The NGV6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2.289(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2.525(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 2.236(Month Low) to 2.583(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGV went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGV should exceed 2.583(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2.849(Average Objective).
August Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 41.22(Prev Close), the market ended April at 47.74(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 37.88(Month Low) to 48.59(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CBQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBQ should exceed 48.59(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 51.65(Average Objective).
September Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 41.74(Prev Close), the market ended April at 48.09(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 38.29(Month Low) to 48.92(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CBU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBU should exceed 48.92(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 52.78(Average Objective).
October Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBV6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 42.27(Prev Close), the market ended April at 48.34(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 38.78(Month Low) to 49.16(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CBV went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBV should exceed 49.16(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 53.00(Average Objective).
July Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BON6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 34.44(Prev Close), the market ended April at 33.14(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 33.10(Month Low) to 35.43(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, BON went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BON should penetrate 33.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 30.58(Average Objective).
August Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOQ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 34.53(Prev Close), the market ended April at 33.26(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 33.22(Month Low) to 35.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, BOQ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should penetrate 33.22(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 30.72(Average Objective).
September Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 34.63(Prev Close), the market ended April at 33.39(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 33.38(Month Low) to 35.58(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BOU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 33.38(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 30.62(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 368.75(Prev Close), the market ended April at 395.25(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 364.00(Month Low) to 409.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should exceed 409.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 455.62(Average Objective).
July Wheat(KCBT): The KWN6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 487.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 478.50(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 452.75(Month Low) to 509.25(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, KWN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 452.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 425.57(Average Objective).
September Wheat(KCBT): The KWU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 501.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 494.25(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 467.25(Month Low) to 523.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, KWU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 467.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 438.59(Average Objective).
September Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 131.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 123.35(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 122.20(Month Low) to 132.90(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, KCU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 122.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 106.70(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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