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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Jun 30, 2015
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
ADU5 Higher Jun 76.12 78.14 75.54 76.85 50% 28 16 14 88% 78.14 80.68 76.85
DXU5 Lower Jun 97.370 98.165 93.300 95.660 49% 29 17 15 88% 93.300 90.455 95.660
SU5 Higher Jun 907.75 1042.75 898.50 1041.50 99% 45 21 18 86% 1042.75 1194.09 1041.50
SX5 Higher Jun 905.75 1038.00 895.75 1037.25 99% 45 20 17 85% 1038.00 1187.37 1037.25
SF6 Higher Jun 912.75 1043.00 903.00 1042.25 99% 45 20 17 85% 1043.00 1190.04 1042.25
SBV5 Higher Jun 12.28 12.79 11.52 12.47 75% 45 24 21 88% 12.79 14.51 12.47
SBH6 Higher Jun 13.59 14.05 13.08 13.76 70% 45 26 22 85% 14.05 15.77 13.76
CCZ5 Higher Jun 3066 3327 3035 3262 78% 45 23 20 87% 3327 3685 3262


September Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 76.12(Prev Close), the market ended June at 76.85(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 75.54(Month Low) to 78.14(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ADU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 78.14(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 80.68(Average Objective).

September US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 97.370(Prev Close), the market ended June at 95.660(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 93.300(Month Low) to 98.165(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, DXU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should penetrate 93.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 90.455(Average Objective).

September Soybeans(CBOT)
The SU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 907.75(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1041.50(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 898.50(Month Low) to 1042.75(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in June than May in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SU should exceed 1042.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1194.09(Average Objective).

November Soybeans(CBOT)
The SX5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 905.75(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1037.25(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 895.75(Month Low) to 1038.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SX went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 1038.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1187.37(Average Objective).

January Soybeans(CBOT)
The SF6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 912.75(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1042.25(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 903.00(Month Low) to 1043.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SF went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SF should exceed 1043.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1190.04(Average Objective).

October Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBV5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 12.28(Prev Close), the market ended June at 12.47(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 11.52(Month Low) to 12.79(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SBV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should exceed 12.79(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 14.51(Average Objective).

March Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 13.59(Prev Close), the market ended June at 13.76(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 13.08(Month Low) to 14.05(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SBH went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should exceed 14.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 15.77(Average Objective).

December Cocoa(ICE)
The CCZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 3066(Prev Close), the market ended June at 3262(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 3035(Month Low) to 3327(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CCZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should exceed 3327(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 3685(Average Objective).
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