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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Mar 31, 2015
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#RUT Higher Mar 1233.35 1268.15 1206.10 1252.75 75% 36 25 24 96% 1268.15 1343.61 1252.75
#VLE Lower Mar 4824.70 4883.00 4674.70 4820.70 70% 32 8 7 88% 4674.70 4492.75 4820.70
#SSNI Higher Mar 18798 19779 18577 19207 52% 33 19 18 95% 19779 21105 19207
SFM5 Lower Mar 105.18 105.69 99.10 103.15 61% 39 20 20 100% 99.10 95.21 103.15
EUM5 Lower Mar 112.08 112.54 104.73 107.54 36% 16 9 9 100% 104.73 100.11 107.54
JYM5 Lower Mar 83.64 84.60 82.05 83.46 55% 38 22 19 86% 82.05 79.36 83.46
DXM5 Higher Mar 95.730 100.785 94.765 98.660 65% 29 15 14 93% 100.785 104.114 98.660
GCM5 Lower Mar 1214.0 1223.7 1142.4 1183.2 50% 40 26 22 85% 1142.4 1087.3 1183.2
GCQ5 Lower Mar 1214.7 1224.0 1143.8 1184.1 50% 40 26 22 85% 1143.8 1088.8 1184.1
HON5 Lower Mar 193.79 193.32 166.78 173.12 24% 35 10 9 90% 166.78 154.29 173.12
HOQ5 Lower Mar 194.92 194.63 168.45 174.87 25% 35 10 9 90% 168.45 156.62 174.87
NGN5 Lower Mar 2.864 3.031 2.721 2.751 10% 24 8 8 100% 2.721 2.479 2.751
NGQ5 Lower Mar 2.880 3.050 2.750 2.782 11% 24 8 8 100% 2.750 2.530 2.782
NGU5 Lower Mar 2.870 3.025 2.754 2.786 12% 24 8 8 100% 2.754 2.550 2.786
BOQ5 Lower Mar 33.11 33.51 30.16 30.70 16% 45 19 16 84% 30.16 28.41 30.70
BOU5 Lower Mar 33.07 33.53 30.29 30.76 15% 45 19 16 84% 30.29 28.66 30.76
CZ5 Lower Mar 417.50 421.25 392.50 400.75 29% 45 19 18 95% 392.50 368.66 400.75
KWU5 Higher Mar 558.75 595.00 535.50 573.00 63% 38 15 13 87% 595.00 650.15 573.00
RRU5 Higher Mar 11.06 11.56 10.80 11.28 62% 28 16 15 94% 11.56 12.52 11.28
LCQ5 Higher Mar 142.050 150.750 141.325 149.500 87% 45 22 19 86% 150.750 160.702 149.500
LCV5 Higher Mar 145.075 152.450 144.300 151.200 85% 45 24 21 88% 152.450 159.223 151.200
FCQ5 Higher Mar 201.180 220.100 199.700 218.280 91% 42 20 17 85% 220.100 231.927 218.280
FCU5 Higher Mar 201.000 218.800 199.500 217.330 92% 42 19 17 89% 218.800 229.328 217.330
KCN5 Lower Mar 143.50 150.00 132.00 136.10 23% 41 19 16 84% 132.00 120.75 136.10
CCN5 Lower Mar 2998 3023 2682 2699 5% 45 22 21 95% 2682 2359 2699
CCU5 Lower Mar 2975 3002 2679 2694 5% 45 21 19 90% 2679 2366 2694
LBN5 Lower Mar 293.1 297.2 267.0 276.7 32% 41 21 18 86% 267.0 242.5 276.7
CTV5 Lower Mar 65.85 65.97 61.52 63.98 55% 45 21 18 86% 61.52 56.28 63.98


Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 1233.35(Prev Close), the market ended March at 1252.75(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 1206.10(Month Low) to 1268.15(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in March than February in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #RUT went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 1268.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 1343.61(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 4824.70(Prev Close), the market ended March at 4820.70(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 4674.70(Month Low) to 4883.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed lower in March than February in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, the #VLE went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should penetrate 4674.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 4492.75(Average Objective).

Nikkei 225 Index
The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 18798(Prev Close), the market ended March at 19207(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 18577(Month Low) to 19779(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #SSNI went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 19779(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 21105(Average Objective).

June Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFM5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 105.18(Prev Close), the market ended March at 103.15(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 99.10(Month Low) to 105.69(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SFM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should penetrate 99.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 95.21(Average Objective).

June EuroFX(CME)
The EUM5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 112.08(Prev Close), the market ended March at 107.54(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 104.73(Month Low) to 112.54(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, EUM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUM should penetrate 104.73(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 100.11(Average Objective).

June Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYM5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 83.64(Prev Close), the market ended March at 83.46(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 82.05(Month Low) to 84.60(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, JYM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYM should penetrate 82.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 79.36(Average Objective).

June US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXM5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 95.730(Prev Close), the market ended March at 98.660(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 94.765(Month Low) to 100.785(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in March than February in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, DXM went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should exceed 100.785(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 104.114(Average Objective).

June Gold(CMX)
The GCM5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 1214.0(Prev Close), the market ended March at 1183.2(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 1142.4(Month Low) to 1223.7(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Gold(CMX) also closed lower in March than February in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, GCM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCM should penetrate 1142.4(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1087.3(Average Objective).

August Gold(CMX)
The GCQ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 1214.7(Prev Close), the market ended March at 1184.1(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 1143.8(Month Low) to 1224.0(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Gold(CMX) also closed lower in March than February in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, GCQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCQ should penetrate 1143.8(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1088.8(Average Objective).

July NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HON5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 193.79(Prev Close), the market ended March at 173.12(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 166.78(Month Low) to 193.32(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, HON went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HON should penetrate 166.78(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 154.29(Average Objective).

August NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOQ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 194.92(Prev Close), the market ended March at 174.87(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 168.45(Month Low) to 194.63(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, HOQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOQ should penetrate 168.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 156.62(Average Objective).

July Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 2.864(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2.751(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 2.721(Month Low) to 3.031(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, NGN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGN should penetrate 2.721(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 2.479(Average Objective).

August Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGQ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 2.880(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2.782(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 2.750(Month Low) to 3.050(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, NGQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should penetrate 2.750(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 2.530(Average Objective).

September Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 2.870(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2.786(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 2.754(Month Low) to 3.025(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, NGU went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should penetrate 2.754(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 2.550(Average Objective).

August Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOQ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 33.11(Prev Close), the market ended March at 30.70(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 30.16(Month Low) to 33.51(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BOQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should penetrate 30.16(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 28.41(Average Objective).

September Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 33.07(Prev Close), the market ended March at 30.76(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 30.29(Month Low) to 33.53(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BOU went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 30.29(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 28.66(Average Objective).

December Corn(CBOT)
The CZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 417.50(Prev Close), the market ended March at 400.75(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 392.50(Month Low) to 421.25(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CZ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 392.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 368.66(Average Objective).

September Wheat(KCBT)
The KWU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 558.75(Prev Close), the market ended March at 573.00(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 535.50(Month Low) to 595.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed higher in March than February in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, KWU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should exceed 595.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 650.15(Average Objective).

September Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 11.06(Prev Close), the market ended March at 11.28(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 10.80(Month Low) to 11.56(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RRU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should exceed 11.56(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 12.52(Average Objective).

August Live Cattle(CME)
The LCQ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 142.050(Prev Close), the market ended March at 149.500(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 141.325(Month Low) to 150.750(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LCQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 150.750(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 160.702(Average Objective).

October Live Cattle(CME)
The LCV5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 145.075(Prev Close), the market ended March at 151.200(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 144.300(Month Low) to 152.450(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, LCV went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 152.450(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 159.223(Average Objective).

August Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCQ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 201.180(Prev Close), the market ended March at 218.280(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 199.700(Month Low) to 220.100(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, FCQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCQ should exceed 220.100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 231.927(Average Objective).

September Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 201.000(Prev Close), the market ended March at 217.330(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 199.500(Month Low) to 218.800(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, FCU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCU should exceed 218.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 229.328(Average Objective).

July Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 143.50(Prev Close), the market ended March at 136.10(Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 132.00(Month Low) to 150.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, KCN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCN should penetrate 132.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 120.75(Average Objective).

July Cocoa(ICE)
The CCN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 2998(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2699(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 2682(Month Low) to 3023(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CCN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCN should penetrate 2682(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 2359(Average Objective).

September Cocoa(ICE)
The CCU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 2975(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2694(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 2679(Month Low) to 3002(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CCU went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCU should penetrate 2679(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 2366(Average Objective).

July Lumber(CME)
The LBN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 293.1(Prev Close), the market ended March at 276.7(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 267.0(Month Low) to 297.2(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LBN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should penetrate 267.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 242.5(Average Objective).

October Cotton(ICE)
The CTV5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 65.85(Prev Close), the market ended March at 63.98(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 61.52(Month Low) to 65.97(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CTV went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should penetrate 61.52(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 56.28(Average Objective).
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