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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Aug 31, 2014
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Lower Aug 15500.00 15658.00 14760.00 14810.00 6% 45 19 16 84% 14760.00 13773.34 16577.00
USZ4 Higher Aug 135~310 146~100 135~130 140~030 43% 36 23 21 91% 146~100 152~089 140~030
TYZ4 Higher Aug 123~245 126~120 123~185 125~250 79% 32 23 21 91% 126~120 129~311 125~250
EDZ4 Higher Aug 99.720 99.755 99.710 99.745 78% 32 24 23 96% 99.755 100.283 99.745
EDH5 Higher Aug 99.595 99.685 99.585 99.645 60% 32 23 22 96% 99.685 100.242 99.645
CDZ4 Higher Aug 91.44 92.26 90.70 91.75 67% 37 20 17 85% 92.26 94.43 91.75
ADZ4 Higher Aug 92.07 93.03 91.59 92.66 74% 27 13 12 92% 93.03 96.55 92.66
PAZ4 Higher Aug 874.05 910.50 839.10 909.55 99% 37 13 11 85% 910.50 1011.95 909.55
NGG5 Higher Aug 4.064 4.300 4.000 4.248 83% 24 9 8 89% 4.300 4.998 4.248
JOX4 Higher Aug 145.00 153.40 141.70 150.05 71% 45 23 20 87% 153.40 167.42 150.05
CTZ4 Higher Aug 62.87 67.72 62.02 66.57 80% 44 17 15 88% 67.72 74.86 66.57

DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 15500.00(Prev Close), the market ended August at 14810.00(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 14760.00(Month Low) to 15658.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed lower in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #DJ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should penetrate 14760.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 13773.34(Average Objective).

December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 135~310(Prev Close), the market ended August at 140~030(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 135~130(Month Low) to 146~100(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, USZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 146~100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 152~089(Average Objective).

December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 123~245(Prev Close), the market ended August at 125~250(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 123~185(Month Low) to 126~120(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, TYZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 126~120(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 129~311(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 99.720(Prev Close), the market ended August at 99.745(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 99.710(Month Low) to 99.755(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.755(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 100.283(Average Objective).

March Eurodollars(CME)
The EDH5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 99.595(Prev Close), the market ended August at 99.645(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 99.585(Month Low) to 99.685(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, EDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 99.685(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 100.242(Average Objective).

December Canadian Dollar(CME)
The CDZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 91.44(Prev Close), the market ended August at 91.75(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 90.70(Month Low) to 92.26(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDZ should exceed 92.26(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 94.43(Average Objective).

December Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 92.07(Prev Close), the market ended August at 92.66(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 91.59(Month Low) to 93.03(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, ADZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should exceed 93.03(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 96.55(Average Objective).

December Palladium(NYMEX)
The PAZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 874.05(Prev Close), the market ended August at 909.55(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 839.10(Month Low) to 910.50(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, PAZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should exceed 910.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 1011.95(Average Objective).

February Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGG5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 4.064(Prev Close), the market ended August at 4.248(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 4.000(Month Low) to 4.300(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, NGG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGG should exceed 4.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 4.998(Average Objective).

November Orange Juice(ICE)
The JOX4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 145.00(Prev Close), the market ended August at 150.05(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 141.70(Month Low) to 153.40(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Orange Juice(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, JOX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOX should exceed 153.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 167.42(Average Objective).

December Cotton(ICE)
The CTZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 62.87(Prev Close), the market ended August at 66.57(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 62.02(Month Low) to 67.72(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CTZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should exceed 67.72(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 74.86(Average Objective).

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