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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Feb 28, 2014
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Feb 13861.00 14149.00 13784.00 14054.00 74% 45 26 25 96% 14149.00 14939.51 15116.00
#TRAN Higher Feb 5804.00 6035.00 5789.00 5993.00 83% 44 26 22 85% 6035.00 6490.15 6290.00
#UTIL Higher Feb 474.00 482.34 469.35 480.41 85% 44 16 15 94% 482.34 504.56 482.16
#OEX Higher Feb 674.90 689.25 670.90 682.55 63% 38 20 18 90% 689.25 722.95 733.65
#NDX Higher Feb 2731.50 2783.20 2689.80 2738.60 52% 28 15 14 93% 2783.20 3014.30 2981.80
#RUT Higher Feb 902.10 932.00 894.25 911.10 45% 35 20 18 90% 932.00 992.19 984.15
#MID Higher Feb 1093.40 1123.75 1078.65 1102.65 53% 33 22 21 95% 1123.75 1187.61 1184.30
#VLE Higher Feb 3380.00 3476.90 3337.50 3402.40 47% 31 20 18 90% 3476.90 3655.16 3719.70
#SP Higher Feb 1498.10 1530.95 1485.00 1514.70 65% 45 25 21 84% 1530.95 1607.58 1630.75
SPM4 Higher Feb 1774.70 1858.90 1725.90 1850.60 94% 31 19 16 84% 1858.90 1948.72 1850.60
SPU4 Higher Feb 1763.20 1852.10 1719.30 1843.80 94% 31 19 16 84% 1852.10 1941.27 1843.80
TYU4 Higher Feb 123~195 124~100 123~040 124~010 76% 30 14 13 93% 124~100 125~251 124~010
EDM4 Higher Feb 99.720 99.760 99.720 99.755 87% 31 15 13 87% 99.760 99.985 99.755
EDU4 Higher Feb 99.690 99.740 99.690 99.730 80% 31 17 16 94% 99.740 100.043 99.730
EDZ4 Higher Feb 99.635 99.695 99.635 99.685 83% 31 19 18 95% 99.695 100.008 99.685
CDM4 Higher Feb 89.59 91.38 89.10 90.15 46% 37 17 15 88% 91.38 93.68 90.15
CLM4 Higher Feb 94.85 101.77 93.73 100.95 90% 30 18 16 89% 101.77 113.65 100.95
CLN4 Higher Feb 93.87 100.75 92.85 99.96 90% 30 18 17 94% 100.75 111.42 99.96
CLN4 Higher Feb 93.87 100.75 92.85 99.96 90% 30 18 17 94% 100.75 111.42 99.96
CLQ4 Higher Feb 92.90 99.61 92.02 98.93 91% 30 18 17 94% 99.61 109.71 98.93
CLU4 Higher Feb 92.00 98.63 91.15 97.91 90% 30 17 16 94% 98.63 108.35 97.91
HOM4 Higher Feb 290.16 303.88 287.66 297.61 61% 34 16 15 94% 303.88 338.43 297.61
HON4 Higher Feb 289.31 302.85 287.15 296.90 62% 34 16 15 94% 302.85 335.49 296.90
HOQ4 Higher Feb 288.69 301.82 286.74 296.29 63% 32 15 14 93% 301.82 335.89 296.29
RBM4 Higher Feb 279.24 298.75 276.61 293.81 78% 28 14 14 100% 298.75 345.25 293.81
RBN4 Higher Feb 276.30 294.96 273.89 290.35 78% 28 14 14 100% 294.96 337.86 290.35
RBQ4 Higher Feb 272.69 290.58 270.37 286.36 79% 28 16 16 100% 290.58 325.78 286.36
NGN4 Higher Feb 4.418 4.915 4.370 4.599 42% 23 13 11 85% 4.915 5.763 4.599
NGQ4 Higher Feb 4.415 4.891 4.390 4.586 39% 23 14 13 93% 4.891 5.618 4.586
ITCOM4 Higher Feb 104.97 110.06 103.92 108.31 71% 24 15 14 93% 110.06 123.43 108.31
ITCON4 Higher Feb 104.58 109.61 103.60 107.96 73% 23 14 14 100% 109.61 122.16 107.96
ITCOQ4 Higher Feb 104.13 109.09 103.18 107.50 73% 23 14 14 100% 109.09 120.99 107.50
SK4 Higher Feb 1268.50 1445.50 1264.75 1414.00 83% 45 24 21 88% 1445.50 1581.61 1414.00
SN4 Higher Feb 1252.00 1416.75 1248.75 1385.25 81% 45 25 22 88% 1416.75 1543.73 1385.25
SQ4 Higher Feb 1210.50 1354.50 1207.00 1331.00 84% 45 25 22 88% 1354.50 1474.24 1331.00
SX4 Higher Feb 1104.50 1182.00 1099.00 1169.25 85% 45 24 21 88% 1182.00 1257.92 1169.25
BOK4 Higher Feb 37.93 41.96 37.50 41.79 96% 45 29 25 86% 41.96 45.99 41.79
BON4 Higher Feb 38.25 42.10 37.82 41.87 95% 45 30 27 90% 42.10 45.99 41.87
BOQ4 Higher Feb 38.38 41.88 38.07 41.64 94% 45 30 27 90% 41.88 45.68 41.64
SMK4 Higher Feb 411.10 471.50 409.80 457.70 78% 45 22 19 86% 471.50 525.17 457.70
SMN4 Higher Feb 400.50 456.60 399.40 443.60 77% 45 22 19 86% 456.60 505.19 443.60
RRK4 Higher Feb 15.42 15.88 15.30 15.64 58% 27 10 9 90% 15.88 18.03 15.64
RRN4 Higher Feb 15.16 15.54 15.00 15.46 85% 24 8 8 100% 15.54 17.59 15.46
LCM4 Higher Feb 131.500 135.150 130.550 134.200 79% 45 25 21 84% 135.150 143.387 134.200
LCQ4 Higher Feb 129.825 133.325 128.885 132.635 84% 44 21 18 86% 133.325 140.494 132.635
FCK4 Higher Feb 170.080 175.250 167.850 173.700 79% 42 25 21 84% 175.250 185.314 173.700
LEM4 Higher Feb 104.835 112.930 103.450 112.230 93% 44 20 19 95% 112.930 122.103 112.230
JON4 Higher Feb 144.45 149.60 141.00 145.90 57% 45 19 16 84% 149.60 162.55 145.90
SBK4 Higher Feb 15.76 18.13 15.57 17.66 82% 45 21 18 86% 18.13 19.86 17.66
CTN4 Higher Feb 85.94 89.84 85.00 86.89 39% 45 27 24 89% 89.84 96.29 86.89
CTZ4 Higher Feb 76.40 78.70 75.96 77.82 68% 44 25 21 84% 78.70 83.18 77.82

DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 13861.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 14054.00(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 13784.00(Month Low) to 14149.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in February than January in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 14149.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 14939.51(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 5804.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 5993.00(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 5789.00(Month Low) to 6035.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in February than January in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #TRAN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 6035.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 6490.15(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 474.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 480.41(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 469.35(Month Low) to 482.34(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #UTIL went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 482.34(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 504.56(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 674.90(Prev Close), the market ended February at 682.55(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 670.90(Month Low) to 689.25(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in February than January in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #OEX went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 689.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 722.95(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 2731.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 2738.60(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 2689.80(Month Low) to 2783.20(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in February than January in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #NDX went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 2783.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 3014.30(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 902.10(Prev Close), the market ended February at 911.10(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 894.25(Month Low) to 932.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in February than January in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #RUT went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 932.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 992.19(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1093.40(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1102.65(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 1078.65(Month Low) to 1123.75(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in February than January in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #MID went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1123.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1187.61(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 3380.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 3402.40(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 3337.50(Month Low) to 3476.90(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in February than January in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #VLE went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 3476.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 3655.16(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1498.10(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1514.70(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 1485.00(Month Low) to 1530.95(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #SP went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1530.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1607.58(Average Objective).

June S & P 500(CME)
The SPM4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1774.70(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1850.60(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 1725.90(Month Low) to 1858.90(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SPM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should exceed 1858.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1948.72(Average Objective).

September S & P 500(CME)
The SPU4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1763.20(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1843.80(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 1719.30(Month Low) to 1852.10(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SPU went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 1852.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1941.27(Average Objective).

September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYU4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 123~195(Prev Close), the market ended February at 124~010(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 123~040(Month Low) to 124~100(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, TYU went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 124~100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 125~251(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 99.720(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.755(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 99.720(Month Low) to 99.760(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, EDM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 99.760(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 99.985(Average Objective).

September Eurodollars(CME)
The EDU4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 99.690(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.730(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 99.690(Month Low) to 99.740(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, EDU went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should exceed 99.740(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 100.043(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 99.635(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.685(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 99.635(Month Low) to 99.695(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, EDZ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.695(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 100.008(Average Objective).

June Canadian Dollar(CME)
The CDM4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 89.59(Prev Close), the market ended February at 90.15(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 89.10(Month Low) to 91.38(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CDM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDM should exceed 91.38(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 93.68(Average Objective).

June Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLM4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 94.85(Prev Close), the market ended February at 100.95(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 93.73(Month Low) to 101.77(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CLM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLM should exceed 101.77(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 113.65(Average Objective).

July Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLN4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 93.87(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.96(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 92.85(Month Low) to 100.75(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CLN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLN should exceed 100.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 111.42(Average Objective).

July Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLN4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 93.87(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.96(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 92.85(Month Low) to 100.75(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CLN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLN should exceed 100.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 111.42(Average Objective).

August Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLQ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 92.90(Prev Close), the market ended February at 98.93(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 92.02(Month Low) to 99.61(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CLQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLQ should exceed 99.61(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 109.71(Average Objective).

September Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLU4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 92.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 97.91(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 91.15(Month Low) to 98.63(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CLU went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLU should exceed 98.63(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 108.35(Average Objective).

June Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOM4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 290.16(Prev Close), the market ended February at 297.61(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 287.66(Month Low) to 303.88(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, HOM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOM should exceed 303.88(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 338.43(Average Objective).

July Heating Oil(NYM)
The HON4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 289.31(Prev Close), the market ended February at 296.90(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 287.15(Month Low) to 302.85(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, HON went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HON should exceed 302.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 335.49(Average Objective).

August Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOQ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 288.69(Prev Close), the market ended February at 296.29(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 286.74(Month Low) to 301.82(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, HOQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOQ should exceed 301.82(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 335.89(Average Objective).

June Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBM4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 279.24(Prev Close), the market ended February at 293.81(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 276.61(Month Low) to 298.75(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, RBM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBM should exceed 298.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 345.25(Average Objective).

July Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBN4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 276.30(Prev Close), the market ended February at 290.35(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 273.89(Month Low) to 294.96(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, RBN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBN should exceed 294.96(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 337.86(Average Objective).

August Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBQ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 272.69(Prev Close), the market ended February at 286.36(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 270.37(Month Low) to 290.58(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RBQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBQ should exceed 290.58(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 325.78(Average Objective).

July Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGN4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 4.418(Prev Close), the market ended February at 4.599(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 4.370(Month Low) to 4.915(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGN should exceed 4.915(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 5.763(Average Objective).

August Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGQ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 4.415(Prev Close), the market ended February at 4.586(Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 4.390(Month Low) to 4.891(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 4.891(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 5.618(Average Objective).

June Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCOM4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 104.97(Prev Close), the market ended February at 108.31(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 103.92(Month Low) to 110.06(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, ITCOM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOM should exceed 110.06(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 123.43(Average Objective).

July Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCON4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 104.58(Prev Close), the market ended February at 107.96(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 103.60(Month Low) to 109.61(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, ITCON went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCON should exceed 109.61(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 122.16(Average Objective).

August Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCOQ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 104.13(Prev Close), the market ended February at 107.50(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 103.18(Month Low) to 109.09(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, ITCOQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOQ should exceed 109.09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 120.99(Average Objective).

May Soybeans(CBOT)
The SK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1268.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1414.00(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 1264.75(Month Low) to 1445.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SK should exceed 1445.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1581.61(Average Objective).

July Soybeans(CBOT)
The SN4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1252.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1385.25(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 1248.75(Month Low) to 1416.75(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SN should exceed 1416.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1543.73(Average Objective).

August Soybeans(CBOT)
The SQ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1210.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1331.00(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 1207.00(Month Low) to 1354.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SQ should exceed 1354.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1474.24(Average Objective).

November Soybeans(CBOT)
The SX4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1104.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1169.25(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 1099.00(Month Low) to 1182.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SX went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 1182.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1257.92(Average Objective).

May Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 37.93(Prev Close), the market ended February at 41.79(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 37.50(Month Low) to 41.96(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, BOK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should exceed 41.96(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 45.99(Average Objective).

July Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BON4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 38.25(Prev Close), the market ended February at 41.87(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 37.82(Month Low) to 42.10(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, BON went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BON should exceed 42.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 45.99(Average Objective).

August Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOQ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 38.38(Prev Close), the market ended February at 41.64(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 38.07(Month Low) to 41.88(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, BOQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should exceed 41.88(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 45.68(Average Objective).

May Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 411.10(Prev Close), the market ended February at 457.70(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 409.80(Month Low) to 471.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMK should exceed 471.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 525.17(Average Objective).

July Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMN4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 400.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 443.60(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 399.40(Month Low) to 456.60(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMN should exceed 456.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 505.19(Average Objective).

May Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 15.42(Prev Close), the market ended February at 15.64(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 15.30(Month Low) to 15.88(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, RRK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRK should exceed 15.88(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 18.03(Average Objective).

July Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRN4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 15.16(Prev Close), the market ended February at 15.46(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 15.00(Month Low) to 15.54(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, RRN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should exceed 15.54(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 17.59(Average Objective).

June Live Cattle(CME)
The LCM4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 131.500(Prev Close), the market ended February at 134.200(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 130.550(Month Low) to 135.150(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, LCM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should exceed 135.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 143.387(Average Objective).

August Live Cattle(CME)
The LCQ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 129.825(Prev Close), the market ended February at 132.635(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 128.885(Month Low) to 133.325(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LCQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 133.325(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 140.494(Average Objective).

May Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 170.080(Prev Close), the market ended February at 173.700(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 167.850(Month Low) to 175.250(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, FCK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCK should exceed 175.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 185.314(Average Objective).

June Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEM4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 104.835(Prev Close), the market ended February at 112.230(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 103.450(Month Low) to 112.930(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LEM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEM should exceed 112.930(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 122.103(Average Objective).

July Orange Juice(ICE)
The JON4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 144.45(Prev Close), the market ended February at 145.90(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 141.00(Month Low) to 149.60(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Orange Juice(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, JON went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JON should exceed 149.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 162.55(Average Objective).

May Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 15.76(Prev Close), the market ended February at 17.66(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 15.57(Month Low) to 18.13(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SBK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBK should exceed 18.13(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 19.86(Average Objective).

July Cotton(ICE)
The CTN4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 85.94(Prev Close), the market ended February at 86.89(Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 85.00(Month Low) to 89.84(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, CTN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTN should exceed 89.84(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 96.29(Average Objective).

December Cotton(ICE)
The CTZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 76.40(Prev Close), the market ended February at 77.82(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 75.96(Month Low) to 78.70(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CTZ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should exceed 78.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 83.18(Average Objective).

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Newsflash

Will the stock market continue its tradition of rallying into the new year?  Will there be another "Santa Claus rally?"

After a frightening decline after Brexit and another overnight in an initial response to Donald Trump's election upset, several US stock indices returned toward their all-time highs --- although some international markets are lagging.  Does that provide incredible opportunity?  But which way and when?

MRCI's  Historical Indices Report, complete with seasonal patterns not only for US futures on S&P500, S&P MidCap 400, NASDAQ 100, Russe ll 2000, and DJIA but also for futures on several major international indices including the FT-SE 100, CAC 40, Nikkei 225, DAX, Euro STOXX 50, Swiss Market Index, SPI 200, and Hang Seng Index.