Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Jul 31, 2013
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#UTIL Higher Jul 485.90 510.43 472.38 503.97 83% 43 25 23 92% 510.43 530.63 503.97
#OEX Higher Jul 720.60 762.05 720.50 755.25 84% 37 17 15 88% 762.05 794.63 755.25
#NDX Higher Jul 2909.60 3110.00 2913.50 3090.20 90% 27 15 13 87% 3110.00 3323.59 3090.20
#RUT Higher Jul 977.50 1056.85 977.45 1045.25 85% 34 16 15 94% 1056.85 1118.39 1045.25
#MID Higher Jul 1160.80 1243.05 1163.35 1231.90 86% 32 12 12 100% 1243.05 1307.32 1231.90
#VLE Higher Jul 3680.90 3951.40 3680.80 3917.10 87% 30 15 14 93% 3951.40 4131.08 3917.10
#SP Higher Jul 1606.30 1698.80 1604.55 1685.75 86% 45 19 18 95% 1698.80 1778.24 1685.75
SPZ3 Higher Jul 1593.00 1687.00 1591.90 1674.20 87% 31 13 13 100% 1687.00 1748.82 1674.20
EDZ3 Higher Jul 99.625 99.690 99.595 99.680 89% 31 20 20 100% 99.690 100.165 99.680
EDH4 Higher Jul 99.570 99.640 99.515 99.630 92% 31 19 17 89% 99.640 100.286 99.630
SFZ3 Higher Jul 106.16 108.42 102.98 108.42 100% 38 16 15 94% 108.42 114.56 108.42
EUZ3 Higher Jul 130.29 133.50 127.60 133.44 99% 14 6 6 100% 133.50 138.22 133.44
JYZ3 Higher Jul 100.94 102.53 98.60 102.37 96% 36 16 14 88% 102.53 106.61 102.37
DXZ3 Lower Jul 83.595 85.220 81.755 81.770 0% 27 13 12 92% 81.755 79.497 81.770
CLX3 Higher Jul 95.10 105.19 94.67 102.94 79% 30 20 18 90% 105.19 115.20 102.94
CLZ3 Higher Jul 94.38 103.64 93.94 101.65 79% 30 20 18 90% 103.64 113.12 101.65
CLF4 Higher Jul 93.64 102.01 93.28 100.32 81% 30 20 18 90% 102.01 110.81 100.32
CLG4 Higher Jul 92.93 100.56 92.52 99.14 82% 30 21 19 90% 100.56 108.71 99.14
CLH4 Higher Jul 92.27 99.39 91.88 98.17 84% 29 20 17 85% 99.39 107.68 98.17
HOX3 Higher Jul 286.92 310.78 287.37 305.61 78% 34 21 18 86% 310.78 344.12 305.61
HOG4 Higher Jul 287.37 307.86 288.64 304.13 81% 34 22 19 86% 307.86 334.84 304.13
RBX3 Higher Jul 255.85 285.70 255.17 279.79 81% 28 19 17 89% 285.70 314.82 279.79
RBZ3 Higher Jul 254.29 281.43 253.68 276.31 82% 28 19 17 89% 281.43 307.01 276.31
RBF4 Higher Jul 253.84 279.09 254.90 274.44 81% 27 20 18 90% 279.09 303.50 274.44
RBG4 Higher Jul 254.24 277.87 256.10 273.92 82% 26 18 16 89% 277.87 299.68 273.92
RBH4 Higher Jul 255.42 278.29 257.20 274.81 83% 25 18 16 89% 278.29 299.15 274.81
NGZ3 Lower Jul 3.813 4.061 3.705 3.752 13% 23 11 10 91% 3.705 3.287 3.752
NGF4 Lower Jul 3.899 4.137 3.792 3.839 14% 23 12 11 92% 3.792 3.380 3.839
NGG4 Lower Jul 3.903 4.130 3.799 3.844 14% 23 12 11 92% 3.799 3.415 3.844
NGH4 Lower Jul 3.873 4.085 3.767 3.813 14% 23 12 11 92% 3.767 3.405 3.813
ITCOX3 Higher Jul 100.85 107.69 100.37 106.32 81% 23 17 16 94% 107.69 119.88 106.32
ITCOZ3 Higher Jul 100.46 107.06 99.99 105.75 81% 23 17 16 94% 107.06 118.71 105.75
ITCOF4 Higher Jul 100.10 106.44 100.13 105.21 81% 23 17 16 94% 106.44 117.11 105.21
ITCOG4 Higher Jul 99.78 105.72 99.80 104.67 82% 22 15 14 93% 105.72 115.23 104.67
ITCOH4 Higher Jul 99.45 105.05 99.38 104.15 84% 21 14 13 93% 105.05 114.36 104.15
WH4 Higher Jul 684.00 718.25 668.50 687.75 39% 45 24 21 88% 718.25 817.76 687.75
RRX3 Higher Jul 15.84 16.25 15.00 16.04 83% 26 14 12 86% 16.25 17.73 16.04
RRF4 Higher Jul 16.00 16.40 15.28 16.26 88% 26 14 12 86% 16.40 17.88 16.26
RRH4 Higher Jul 16.14 16.50 15.46 16.40 91% 25 13 11 85% 16.50 17.83 16.40
LCV3 Lower Jul 125.680 126.980 124.530 125.480 39% 45 16 14 88% 124.530 118.549 125.480
FCX3 Higher Jul 154.500 160.050 155.000 160.050 100% 41 26 22 85% 160.050 167.235 160.050
LEZ3 Lower Jul 82.650 83.480 80.225 80.500 8% 43 18 16 89% 80.225 74.295 80.500
LEG4 Lower Jul 83.800 84.950 82.180 82.950 28% 44 17 15 88% 82.180 76.971 82.950
LBX3 Higher Jul 299.0 338.0 290.0 315.1 52% 40 13 11 85% 338.0 376.2 315.1


Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 485.90(Prev Close), the market ended July at 503.97(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 472.38(Month Low) to 510.43(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #UTIL went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 510.43(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 530.63(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 720.60(Prev Close), the market ended July at 755.25(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 720.50(Month Low) to 762.05(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #OEX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 762.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 794.63(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2909.60(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3090.20(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 2913.50(Month Low) to 3110.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #NDX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 3110.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 3323.59(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 977.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1045.25(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 977.45(Month Low) to 1056.85(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #RUT went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 1056.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 1118.39(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1160.80(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1231.90(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 1163.35(Month Low) to 1243.05(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, the #MID went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1243.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 1307.32(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3680.90(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3917.10(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 3680.80(Month Low) to 3951.40(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #VLE went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 3951.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 4131.08(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1606.30(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1685.75(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 1604.55(Month Low) to 1698.80(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #SP went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1698.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1778.24(Average Objective).

December S & P 500(CME)
The SPZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1593.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1674.20(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 1591.90(Month Low) to 1687.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, SPZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPZ should exceed 1687.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1748.82(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 99.625(Prev Close), the market ended July at 99.680(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 99.595(Month Low) to 99.690(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, EDZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.690(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 100.165(Average Objective).

March Eurodollars(CME)
The EDH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 99.570(Prev Close), the market ended July at 99.630(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 99.515(Month Low) to 99.640(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, EDH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 99.640(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 100.286(Average Objective).

December Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 106.16(Prev Close), the market ended July at 108.42(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 102.98(Month Low) to 108.42(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, SFZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFZ should exceed 108.42(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 114.56(Average Objective).

December EuroFX(CME)
The EUZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 130.29(Prev Close), the market ended July at 133.44(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 127.60(Month Low) to 133.50(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December EuroFX(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 6(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 6, EUZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUZ should exceed 133.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 138.22(Average Objective).

December Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 100.94(Prev Close), the market ended July at 102.37(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 98.60(Month Low) to 102.53(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Japanese Yen(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, JYZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYZ should exceed 102.53(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 106.61(Average Objective).

December US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 83.595(Prev Close), the market ended July at 81.770(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 81.755(Month Low) to 85.220(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, DXZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should penetrate 81.755(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 79.497(Average Objective).

November Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLX3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 95.10(Prev Close), the market ended July at 102.94(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 94.67(Month Low) to 105.19(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CLX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLX should exceed 105.19(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 115.20(Average Objective).

December Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 94.38(Prev Close), the market ended July at 101.65(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 93.94(Month Low) to 103.64(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CLZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLZ should exceed 103.64(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 113.12(Average Objective).

January Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLF4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 93.64(Prev Close), the market ended July at 100.32(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 93.28(Month Low) to 102.01(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CLF went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLF should exceed 102.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 110.81(Average Objective).

February Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLG4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 92.93(Prev Close), the market ended July at 99.14(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 92.52(Month Low) to 100.56(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CLG went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLG should exceed 100.56(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 108.71(Average Objective).

March Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 92.27(Prev Close), the market ended July at 98.17(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 91.88(Month Low) to 99.39(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CLH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should exceed 99.39(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 107.68(Average Objective).

November Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOX3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 286.92(Prev Close), the market ended July at 305.61(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 287.37(Month Low) to 310.78(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, HOX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOX should exceed 310.78(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 344.12(Average Objective).

February Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOG4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 287.37(Prev Close), the market ended July at 304.13(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 288.64(Month Low) to 307.86(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, HOG went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOG should exceed 307.86(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 334.84(Average Objective).

November Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBX3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 255.85(Prev Close), the market ended July at 279.79(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 255.17(Month Low) to 285.70(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RBX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBX should exceed 285.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 314.82(Average Objective).

December Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 254.29(Prev Close), the market ended July at 276.31(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 253.68(Month Low) to 281.43(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RBZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBZ should exceed 281.43(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 307.01(Average Objective).

January Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBF4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 253.84(Prev Close), the market ended July at 274.44(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 254.90(Month Low) to 279.09(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, RBF went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBF should exceed 279.09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 303.50(Average Objective).

February Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBG4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 254.24(Prev Close), the market ended July at 273.92(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 256.10(Month Low) to 277.87(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, RBG went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBG should exceed 277.87(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 299.68(Average Objective).

March Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 255.42(Prev Close), the market ended July at 274.81(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 257.20(Month Low) to 278.29(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, RBH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBH should exceed 278.29(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 299.15(Average Objective).

December Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3.813(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3.752(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 3.705(Month Low) to 4.061(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NGZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 3.705(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 3.287(Average Objective).

January Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGF4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3.899(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3.839(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 3.792(Month Low) to 4.137(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGF went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 3.792(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 3.380(Average Objective).

February Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGG4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3.903(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3.844(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 3.799(Month Low) to 4.130(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGG went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGG should penetrate 3.799(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 3.415(Average Objective).

March Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3.873(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3.813(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 3.767(Month Low) to 4.085(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should penetrate 3.767(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 3.405(Average Objective).

November Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCOX3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 100.85(Prev Close), the market ended July at 106.32(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 100.37(Month Low) to 107.69(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, ITCOX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOX should exceed 107.69(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 119.88(Average Objective).

December Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCOZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 100.46(Prev Close), the market ended July at 105.75(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 99.99(Month Low) to 107.06(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, ITCOZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOZ should exceed 107.06(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 118.71(Average Objective).

January Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCOF4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 100.10(Prev Close), the market ended July at 105.21(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 100.13(Month Low) to 106.44(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, ITCOF went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOF should exceed 106.44(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 117.11(Average Objective).

February Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCOG4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 99.78(Prev Close), the market ended July at 104.67(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 99.80(Month Low) to 105.72(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, ITCOG went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOG should exceed 105.72(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 115.23(Average Objective).

March Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCOH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 99.45(Prev Close), the market ended July at 104.15(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 99.38(Month Low) to 105.05(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, ITCOH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOH should exceed 105.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 114.36(Average Objective).

March Wheat(CBOT)
The WH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 684.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 687.75(Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 668.50(Month Low) to 718.25(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, WH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WH should exceed 718.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 817.76(Average Objective).

November Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRX3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 15.84(Prev Close), the market ended July at 16.04(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 15.00(Month Low) to 16.25(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, RRX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRX should exceed 16.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 17.73(Average Objective).

January Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRF4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 16.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 16.26(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 15.28(Month Low) to 16.40(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, RRF went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRF should exceed 16.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 17.88(Average Objective).

March Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 16.14(Prev Close), the market ended July at 16.40(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 15.46(Month Low) to 16.50(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRH should exceed 16.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 17.83(Average Objective).

October Live Cattle(CME)
The LCV3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 125.680(Prev Close), the market ended July at 125.480(Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 124.530(Month Low) to 126.980(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, LCV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should penetrate 124.530(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 118.549(Average Objective).

November Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCX3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 154.500(Prev Close), the market ended July at 160.050(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 155.000(Month Low) to 160.050(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, FCX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should exceed 160.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 167.235(Average Objective).

December Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 82.650(Prev Close), the market ended July at 80.500(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 80.225(Month Low) to 83.480(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, LEZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEZ should penetrate 80.225(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 74.295(Average Objective).

February Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEG4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 83.800(Prev Close), the market ended July at 82.950(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 82.180(Month Low) to 84.950(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, LEG went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEG should penetrate 82.180(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 76.971(Average Objective).

November Lumber(CME)
The LBX3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 299.0(Prev Close), the market ended July at 315.1(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 290.0(Month Low) to 338.0(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Lumber(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, LBX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBX should exceed 338.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 376.2(Average Objective).
Banner

Newsflash

Seasonal AVERAGE charts for both CORN, SOYBEANS & FEEDER CATTLE.

Being able to see at what average spread different delivery months trade --- and when --- can help producers better hedge their livestock and traders to find spread value.

Updated daily for MRCI Online subscribers here! http://www.mrci.com/specialspreadcharts.htm