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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Jul 31, 2012
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#TRAN Lower Jul 5209.20 5265.80 4911.80 5088.30 50% 42 22 19 86% 4911.80 4423.11 5088.30
#UTIL Higher Jul 481.36 497.41 475.23 492.62 78% 42 24 22 92% 497.41 517.54 492.62
#OEX Higher Jul 623.80 640.00 609.05 635.75 86% 36 16 14 88% 640.00 666.22 635.75
#NDX Higher Jul 2615.70 2663.10 2522.90 2642.50 85% 26 14 12 86% 2663.10 2840.48 2642.50
#SP Higher Jul 1362.15 1391.75 1325.40 1379.30 81% 45 19 18 95% 1391.75 1453.06 1379.30
SPU2 Higher Jul 1356.40 1387.30 1320.00 1374.60 81% 30 12 11 92% 1387.30 1430.82 1374.60
SPZ2 Higher Jul 1349.60 1379.40 1315.30 1367.50 81% 30 12 12 100% 1379.40 1425.39 1367.50
USU2 Higher Jul 147~310 153~110 147~260 151~010 58% 34 19 18 95% 153~110 159~289 151~010
USZ2 Higher Jul 148~270 154~170 148~270 152~040 58% 34 19 19 100% 154~170 161~192 152~040
TYU2 Higher Jul 133~120 135~155 133~095 134~210 62% 30 19 19 100% 135~155 139~073 134~210
TYZ2 Higher Jul 132~140 134~180 132~140 133~205 57% 30 20 20 100% 134~180 138~264 133~205
EDU2 Higher Jul 99.520 99.630 99.510 99.615 87% 30 21 21 100% 99.630 99.897 99.615
EDZ2 Higher Jul 99.495 99.645 99.475 99.630 91% 30 19 19 100% 99.645 100.143 99.630
EDH3 Higher Jul 99.475 99.640 99.455 99.625 92% 30 18 16 89% 99.640 100.325 99.625
EDM3 Higher Jul 99.450 99.625 99.435 99.610 92% 30 19 18 95% 99.625 100.322 99.610
ADZ2 Higher Jul 100.92 104.10 99.80 103.86 94% 24 12 11 92% 104.10 107.47 103.86
PAU2 Higher Jul 584.55 605.95 555.90 590.55 69% 35 21 19 90% 605.95 661.61 590.55
HGU2 Lower Jul 349.65 355.65 333.20 341.75 38% 45 14 12 86% 333.20 305.75 341.75
CLX2 Higher Jul 86.21 93.75 83.34 88.72 52% 29 19 17 89% 93.75 102.17 88.72
CLZ2 Higher Jul 86.67 94.08 83.79 89.20 53% 29 19 17 89% 94.08 102.18 89.20
CLF3 Higher Jul 87.13 94.33 84.24 89.67 54% 29 19 17 89% 94.33 101.96 89.67
CLG3 Higher Jul 87.56 94.55 84.61 90.04 55% 29 20 18 90% 94.55 101.71 90.04
CLH3 Higher Jul 87.95 94.67 84.95 90.28 55% 28 19 16 84% 94.67 102.04 90.28
HOX2 Higher Jul 272.10 295.64 265.86 286.47 69% 33 20 17 85% 295.64 326.35 286.47
HOG3 Higher Jul 273.12 294.68 266.63 287.27 74% 33 21 18 86% 294.68 319.57 287.27
HOJ3 Higher Jul 270.95 290.74 264.01 284.14 75% 30 20 17 85% 290.74 311.99 284.14
RBX2 Higher Jul 236.47 261.14 230.64 253.16 74% 27 18 16 89% 261.14 286.36 253.16
RBZ2 Higher Jul 235.42 258.76 228.96 250.28 72% 27 18 16 89% 258.76 280.86 250.28
RBF3 Higher Jul 235.70 258.03 230.51 249.48 69% 26 19 17 89% 258.03 279.25 249.48
RBG3 Higher Jul 236.95 257.72 232.67 250.02 69% 25 17 15 88% 257.72 276.44 250.02
RBH3 Higher Jul 238.92 259.01 232.27 251.54 72% 24 17 15 88% 259.01 276.89 251.54
NGX2 Higher Jul 3.091 3.407 2.968 3.348 87% 22 10 9 90% 3.407 3.999 3.348
NGF3 Higher Jul 3.499 3.750 3.400 3.690 83% 22 10 9 90% 3.750 4.279 3.690
NGG3 Higher Jul 3.509 3.763 3.438 3.702 81% 22 10 9 90% 3.763 4.245 3.702
NGH3 Higher Jul 3.484 3.722 3.400 3.673 85% 22 10 9 90% 3.722 4.130 3.673
WZ2 Higher Jul 776.75 953.25 775.50 902.50 71% 45 23 20 87% 953.25 1091.80 902.50
WH3 Higher Jul 791.00 936.75 789.50 904.25 78% 45 23 20 87% 936.75 1072.16 904.25
RRX2 Higher Jul 14.76 16.12 14.76 15.90 84% 25 13 11 85% 16.12 17.69 15.90
RRF3 Higher Jul 15.02 16.38 15.02 16.16 84% 25 13 11 85% 16.38 17.95 16.16
LEZ2 Lower Jul 80.300 82.300 75.300 78.030 39% 42 17 15 88% 75.300 69.711 78.030
KCZ2 Higher Jul 173.75 194.85 172.95 177.25 20% 38 13 12 92% 194.85 210.62 177.25
KCH3 Higher Jul 177.20 198.10 176.20 180.65 20% 38 14 12 86% 198.10 213.90 180.65
CTV2 Lower Jul 71.57 73.05 68.95 70.58 40% 45 25 23 92% 68.95 63.65 70.58
CTH3 Lower Jul 72.51 74.30 70.34 72.28 49% 44 25 21 84% 70.34 65.47 72.28


Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 5209.20(Prev Close), the market ended July at 5088.30(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 4911.80(Month Low) to 5265.80(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed lower in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #TRAN went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should penetrate 4911.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 4423.11(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 481.36(Prev Close), the market ended July at 492.62(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 475.23(Month Low) to 497.41(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in July than June in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #UTIL went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 497.41(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 517.54(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 623.80(Prev Close), the market ended July at 635.75(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 609.05(Month Low) to 640.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #OEX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 640.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 666.22(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2615.70(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2642.50(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 2522.90(Month Low) to 2663.10(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #NDX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 2663.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2840.48(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1362.15(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1379.30(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 1325.40(Month Low) to 1391.75(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #SP went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1391.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1453.06(Average Objective).

September S & P 500(CME)
The SPU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1356.40(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1374.60(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 1320.00(Month Low) to 1387.30(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, SPU went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 1387.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 1430.82(Average Objective).

December S & P 500(CME)
The SPZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1349.60(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1367.50(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 1315.30(Month Low) to 1379.40(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, SPZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPZ should exceed 1379.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 1425.39(Average Objective).

September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 147~310(Prev Close), the market ended July at 151~010(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 147~260(Month Low) to 153~110(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, USU went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 153~110(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 159~289(Average Objective).

December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 148~270(Prev Close), the market ended July at 152~040(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 148~270(Month Low) to 154~170(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, USZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 154~170(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 161~192(Average Objective).

September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 133~120(Prev Close), the market ended July at 134~210(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 133~095(Month Low) to 135~155(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, TYU went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 135~155(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 139~073(Average Objective).

December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 132~140(Prev Close), the market ended July at 133~205(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 132~140(Month Low) to 134~180(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, TYZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 134~180(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 138~264(Average Objective).

September Eurodollars(CME)
The EDU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 99.520(Prev Close), the market ended July at 99.615(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 99.510(Month Low) to 99.630(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, EDU went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should exceed 99.630(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 99.897(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 99.495(Prev Close), the market ended July at 99.630(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 99.475(Month Low) to 99.645(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, EDZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.645(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 100.143(Average Objective).

March Eurodollars(CME)
The EDH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 99.475(Prev Close), the market ended July at 99.625(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 99.455(Month Low) to 99.640(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, EDH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 99.640(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 100.325(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 99.450(Prev Close), the market ended July at 99.610(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 99.435(Month Low) to 99.625(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, EDM went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 99.625(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 100.322(Average Objective).

December Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 100.92(Prev Close), the market ended July at 103.86(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 99.80(Month Low) to 104.10(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, ADZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should exceed 104.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 107.47(Average Objective).

September Palladium(NYMEX)
The PAU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 584.55(Prev Close), the market ended July at 590.55(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 555.90(Month Low) to 605.95(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, PAU went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAU should exceed 605.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 661.61(Average Objective).

September Copper(CMX)
The HGU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 349.65(Prev Close), the market ended July at 341.75(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 333.20(Month Low) to 355.65(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Copper(CMX) also closed lower in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, HGU went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGU should penetrate 333.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 305.75(Average Objective).

November Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 86.21(Prev Close), the market ended July at 88.72(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 83.34(Month Low) to 93.75(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLX should exceed 93.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 102.17(Average Objective).

December Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 86.67(Prev Close), the market ended July at 89.20(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 83.79(Month Low) to 94.08(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLZ should exceed 94.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 102.18(Average Objective).

January Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 87.13(Prev Close), the market ended July at 89.67(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 84.24(Month Low) to 94.33(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLF went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLF should exceed 94.33(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 101.96(Average Objective).

February Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 87.56(Prev Close), the market ended July at 90.04(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 84.61(Month Low) to 94.55(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CLG went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLG should exceed 94.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 101.71(Average Objective).

March Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 87.95(Prev Close), the market ended July at 90.28(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 84.95(Month Low) to 94.67(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should exceed 94.67(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 102.04(Average Objective).

November Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 272.10(Prev Close), the market ended July at 286.47(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 265.86(Month Low) to 295.64(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HOX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOX should exceed 295.64(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 326.35(Average Objective).

February Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 273.12(Prev Close), the market ended July at 287.27(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 266.63(Month Low) to 294.68(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, HOG went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOG should exceed 294.68(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 319.57(Average Objective).

April Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 270.95(Prev Close), the market ended July at 284.14(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 264.01(Month Low) to 290.74(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HOJ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should exceed 290.74(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 311.99(Average Objective).

November Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 236.47(Prev Close), the market ended July at 253.16(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 230.64(Month Low) to 261.14(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, RBX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBX should exceed 261.14(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 286.36(Average Objective).

December Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 235.42(Prev Close), the market ended July at 250.28(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 228.96(Month Low) to 258.76(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, RBZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBZ should exceed 258.76(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 280.86(Average Objective).

January Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 235.70(Prev Close), the market ended July at 249.48(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 230.51(Month Low) to 258.03(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RBF went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBF should exceed 258.03(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 279.25(Average Objective).

February Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 236.95(Prev Close), the market ended July at 250.02(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 232.67(Month Low) to 257.72(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, RBG went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBG should exceed 257.72(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 276.44(Average Objective).

March Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 238.92(Prev Close), the market ended July at 251.54(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 232.27(Month Low) to 259.01(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, RBH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBH should exceed 259.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 276.89(Average Objective).

November Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3.091(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3.348(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 2.968(Month Low) to 3.407(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGX should exceed 3.407(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 3.999(Average Objective).

January Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3.499(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3.690(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 3.400(Month Low) to 3.750(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGF went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should exceed 3.750(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 4.279(Average Objective).

February Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3.509(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3.702(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 3.438(Month Low) to 3.763(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGG went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGG should exceed 3.763(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 4.245(Average Objective).

March Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3.484(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3.673(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 3.400(Month Low) to 3.722(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should exceed 3.722(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 4.130(Average Objective).

December Wheat(CBOT)
The WZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 776.75(Prev Close), the market ended July at 902.50(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 775.50(Month Low) to 953.25(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, WZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should exceed 953.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1091.80(Average Objective).

March Wheat(CBOT)
The WH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 791.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 904.25(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 789.50(Month Low) to 936.75(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, WH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WH should exceed 936.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1072.16(Average Objective).

November Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 14.76(Prev Close), the market ended July at 15.90(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 14.76(Month Low) to 16.12(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRX should exceed 16.12(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 17.69(Average Objective).

January Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 15.02(Prev Close), the market ended July at 16.16(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 15.02(Month Low) to 16.38(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRF went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRF should exceed 16.38(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 17.95(Average Objective).

December Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 80.300(Prev Close), the market ended July at 78.030(Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 75.300(Month Low) to 82.300(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, LEZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEZ should penetrate 75.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 69.711(Average Objective).

December Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 173.75(Prev Close), the market ended July at 177.25(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 172.95(Month Low) to 194.85(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, KCZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCZ should exceed 194.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 210.62(Average Objective).

March Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 177.20(Prev Close), the market ended July at 180.65(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 176.20(Month Low) to 198.10(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, KCH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should exceed 198.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 213.90(Average Objective).

October Cotton(ICE)
The CTV2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 71.57(Prev Close), the market ended July at 70.58(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 68.95(Month Low) to 73.05(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CTV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should penetrate 68.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 63.65(Average Objective).

March Cotton(ICE)
The CTH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 72.51(Prev Close), the market ended July at 72.28(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 70.34(Month Low) to 74.30(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CTH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTH should penetrate 70.34(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 65.47(Average Objective).
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Newsflash

Will the stock market continue its tradition of rallying into the new year?  Will there be another "Santa Claus rally?"

After a frightening decline after Brexit and another overnight in an initial response to Donald Trump's election upset, several US stock indices returned toward their all-time highs --- although some international markets are lagging.  Does that provide incredible opportunity?  But which way and when?

MRCI's  Historical Indices Report, complete with seasonal patterns not only for US futures on S&P500, S&P MidCap 400, NASDAQ 100, Russe ll 2000, and DJIA but also for futures on several major international indices including the FT-SE 100, CAC 40, Nikkei 225, DAX, Euro STOXX 50, Swiss Market Index, SPI 200, and Hang Seng Index.