MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI Logo

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary May 31, 2012

Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt
Cond
Month Prev
Close Month
High Month
Low Month
Close Pct
Range Total
Years Cond
Years Action
Years
Pct Scenario
Objective Average
Objective Last
Price

#TRAN Lower May 5230.20 5361.10 4864.60 5074.70 42% 42 19 16 84% 4864.60 4534.13 5074.70

#OEX Lower May 635.45 643.29 590.05 597.29 14% 10 5 5 100% 590.05 544.26 597.29

SPU2 Lower May 1387.20 1405.20 1284.40 1302.60 15% 30 11 10 91% 1284.40 1231.87 1302.60

SPZ2 Lower May 1380.60 1398.60 1277.80 1296.10 15% 30 11 10 91% 1277.80 1225.93 1296.10

USU2 Higher May 142~040 150~260 141~090 149~230 89% 34 15 15 100% 150~260 157~056 149~230

USZ2 Higher May 142~090 151~230 141~150 150~190 89% 34 15 15 100% 151~230 158~007 150~190

TYU2 Higher May 131~055 134~100 130~235 133~300 90% 29 13 13 100% 134~100 138~117 133~300

TYZ2 Higher May 130~105 133~030 130~000 133~030 100% 28 12 12 100% 133~030 137~021 133~030

JYU2 Higher May 125.50 128.01 124.25 127.82 95% 35 14 13 93% 128.01 133.44 127.82

DXU2 Higher May 79.222 83.650 79.025 83.525 97% 26 15 13 87% 83.650 85.611 83.525

DXZ2 Higher May 79.652 83.935 79.705 83.935 100% 26 15 13 87% 83.935 85.700 83.935

PLF3 Lower May 1578.1 1578.3 1396.0 1425.4 16% 39 14 12 86% 1396.0 1283.8 1425.4

SQ2 Lower May 1483.75 1492.00 1322.50 1322.75 0% 45 22 22 100% 1322.50 1221.42 1322.75

SU2 Lower May 1424.50 1434.50 1287.50 1293.75 4% 45 22 21 95% 1287.50 1199.32 1293.75

SX2 Lower May 1381.00 1394.50 1251.25 1270.25 13% 45 23 20 87% 1251.25 1164.70 1270.25

SF3 Lower May 1374.25 1387.00 1251.00 1273.25 16% 45 22 19 86% 1251.00 1162.15 1273.25

SH3 Lower May 1353.50 1363.75 1230.00 1253.25 17% 45 22 19 86% 1230.00 1145.73 1253.25

BOU2 Lower May 55.41 55.85 49.00 49.63 9% 45 22 19 86% 49.00 44.46 49.63

BOV2 Lower May 55.50 55.92 49.21 49.85 10% 45 22 20 91% 49.21 44.89 49.85

BOZ2 Lower May 55.80 56.27 49.56 50.28 11% 45 22 20 91% 49.56 45.46 50.28

BOF3 Lower May 56.03 56.45 49.85 50.52 10% 45 22 20 91% 49.85 45.96 50.52

SMQ2 Lower May 427.80 429.90 382.20 382.20 0% 45 21 19 90% 382.20 352.47 382.20

SMU2 Lower May 406.90 410.80 370.00 371.70 4% 45 21 19 90% 370.00 341.02 371.70

SMV2 Lower May 384.00 390.50 356.40 362.70 18% 45 20 17 85% 356.40 328.65 362.70

SMZ2 Lower May 381.50 388.70 353.20 358.70 15% 45 19 17 89% 353.20 329.94 358.70

SMF3 Lower May 374.30 381.20 350.80 356.40 18% 45 19 17 89% 350.80 329.15 356.40

CU2 Lower May 560.75 558.50 504.25 525.50 39% 45 22 20 91% 504.25 453.32 525.50

CZ2 Lower May 543.25 549.50 499.00 522.00 46% 45 23 21 91% 499.00 451.83 522.00

CH3 Lower May 554.75 558.75 511.00 532.75 46% 45 22 20 91% 511.00 466.52 532.75

WU2 Lower May 666.50 729.25 606.75 660.75 44% 45 25 23 92% 606.75 550.48 660.75

WZ2 Lower May 688.00 745.50 629.50 684.25 47% 45 24 22 92% 629.50 573.87 684.25

WH3 Lower May 705.25 754.50 652.00 704.25 51% 45 24 22 92% 652.00 596.32 704.25

OU2 Lower May 348.00 349.50 265.00 280.75 19% 37 20 18 90% 265.00 231.70 280.75

OZ2 Lower May 352.00 356.00 269.00 281.00 14% 37 20 19 95% 269.00 236.61 281.00

RRU2 Lower May 15.36 16.14 14.48 14.49 0% 25 13 12 92% 14.48 13.13 14.49

LCQ2 Higher May 116.200 122.430 115.200 118.900 51% 45 19 17 89% 122.430 129.739 118.900

LCV2 Higher May 121.150 127.050 120.730 123.700 47% 45 20 18 90% 127.050 133.187 123.700

FCF3 Higher May 157.650 164.300 157.250 160.530 47% 32 19 18 95% 164.300 171.266 160.530

LEV2 Higher May 80.400 83.135 78.450 82.885 95% 42 19 17 89% 83.135 90.349 82.885

CCZ2 Lower May 2243 2384 2076 2104 9% 45 26 22 85% 2076 1933 2104

CCH3 Lower May 2248 2389 2094 2119 8% 45 26 23 88% 2094 1951 2119

LBU2 Lower May 289.5 295.3 278.1 279.0 5% 39 17 16 94% 278.1 246.7 279.0

LBX2 Lower May 288.0 292.7 275.0 275.5 3% 39 17 17 100% 275.0 250.6 275.5

LBF3 Lower May 297.7 299.8 283.2 283.7 3% 38 19 19 100% 283.2 260.8 283.7

CTZ2 Lower May 86.96 87.18 67.73 70.35 13% 44 21 18 86% 67.73 63.18 70.35

CTH3 Lower May 87.93 88.13 69.37 72.42 16% 44 21 18 86% 69.37 64.94 72.42

Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 5230.20(Prev Close), the market ended May at 5074.70(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 4864.60(Month Low) to 5361.10(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed lower in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #TRAN went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should penetrate 4864.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 4534.13(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 635.45(Prev Close), the market ended May at 597.29(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 590.05(Month Low) to 643.29(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 10 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed lower in May than April in 5(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 5, the #OEX went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 5 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should penetrate 590.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 5 years) a potential move toward 544.26(Average Objective).
September S & P 500(CME): The SPU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1387.20(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1302.60(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 1284.40(Month Low) to 1405.20(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, SPU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should penetrate 1284.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 1231.87(Average Objective).
December S & P 500(CME): The SPZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1380.60(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1296.10(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 1277.80(Month Low) to 1398.60(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December S & P 500(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, SPZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPZ should penetrate 1277.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 1225.93(Average Objective).
September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 142~040(Prev Close), the market ended May at 149~230(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 141~090(Month Low) to 150~260(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, USU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 150~260(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 157~056(Average Objective).
December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 142~090(Prev Close), the market ended May at 150~190(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 141~150(Month Low) to 151~230(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, USZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 151~230(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 158~007(Average Objective).
September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 131~055(Prev Close), the market ended May at 133~300(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 130~235(Month Low) to 134~100(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, TYU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 134~100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 138~117(Average Objective).
December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 130~105(Prev Close), the market ended May at 133~030(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 130~000(Month Low) to 133~030(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, TYZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 133~030(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 137~021(Average Objective).
September Japanese Yen(CME): The JYU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 125.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 127.82(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 124.25(Month Low) to 128.01(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Japanese Yen(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, JYU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYU should exceed 128.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 133.44(Average Objective).
September US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 79.222(Prev Close), the market ended May at 83.525(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 79.025(Month Low) to 83.650(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, DXU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should exceed 83.650(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 85.611(Average Objective).
December US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 79.652(Prev Close), the market ended May at 83.935(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 79.705(Month Low) to 83.935(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, DXZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should exceed 83.935(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 85.700(Average Objective).
January Platinum(NYMEX): The PLF3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1578.1(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1425.4(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 1396.0(Month Low) to 1578.3(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Platinum(NYMEX) also closed lower in May than April in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, PLF went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLF should penetrate 1396.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 1283.8(Average Objective).
August Soybeans(CBOT): The SQ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1483.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1322.75(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 1322.50(Month Low) to 1492.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SQ should penetrate 1322.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1221.42(Average Objective).
September Soybeans(CBOT): The SU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1424.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1293.75(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 1287.50(Month Low) to 1434.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SU should penetrate 1287.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1199.32(Average Objective).
November Soybeans(CBOT): The SX2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1381.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1270.25(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 1251.25(Month Low) to 1394.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SX went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should penetrate 1251.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1164.70(Average Objective).
January Soybeans(CBOT): The SF3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1374.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1273.25(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 1251.00(Month Low) to 1387.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SF went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SF should penetrate 1251.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1162.15(Average Objective).
March Soybeans(CBOT): The SH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1353.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1253.25(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 1230.00(Month Low) to 1363.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SH went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SH should penetrate 1230.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1145.73(Average Objective).
September Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 55.41(Prev Close), the market ended May at 49.63(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 49.00(Month Low) to 55.85(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, BOU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 49.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 44.46(Average Objective).
October Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOV2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 55.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 49.85(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 49.21(Month Low) to 55.92(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, BOV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOV should penetrate 49.21(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 44.89(Average Objective).
December Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 55.80(Prev Close), the market ended May at 50.28(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 49.56(Month Low) to 56.27(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, BOZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOZ should penetrate 49.56(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 45.46(Average Objective).
January Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOF3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 56.03(Prev Close), the market ended May at 50.52(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 49.85(Month Low) to 56.45(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, BOF went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOF should penetrate 49.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 45.96(Average Objective).
August Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMQ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 427.80(Prev Close), the market ended May at 382.20(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 382.20(Month Low) to 429.90(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SMQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMQ should penetrate 382.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 352.47(Average Objective).
September Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 406.90(Prev Close), the market ended May at 371.70(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 370.00(Month Low) to 410.80(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SMU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMU should penetrate 370.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 341.02(Average Objective).
October Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMV2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 384.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 362.70(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 356.40(Month Low) to 390.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SMV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMV should penetrate 356.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 328.65(Average Objective).
December Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 381.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 358.70(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 353.20(Month Low) to 388.70(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SMZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should penetrate 353.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 329.94(Average Objective).
January Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMF3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 374.30(Prev Close), the market ended May at 356.40(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 350.80(Month Low) to 381.20(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SMF went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMF should penetrate 350.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 329.15(Average Objective).
September Corn(CBOT): The CU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 560.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 525.50(Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 504.25(Month Low) to 558.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 504.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 453.32(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 543.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 522.00(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 499.00(Month Low) to 549.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 499.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 451.83(Average Objective).
March Corn(CBOT): The CH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 554.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 532.75(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 511.00(Month Low) to 558.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CH went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CH should penetrate 511.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 466.52(Average Objective).
September Wheat(CBOT): The WU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 666.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 660.75(Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 606.75(Month Low) to 729.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, WU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 606.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 550.48(Average Objective).
December Wheat(CBOT): The WZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 688.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 684.25(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 629.50(Month Low) to 745.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, WZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 629.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 573.87(Average Objective).
March Wheat(CBOT): The WH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 705.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 704.25(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 652.00(Month Low) to 754.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, WH went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WH should penetrate 652.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 596.32(Average Objective).
September Oats(CBOT): The OU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 348.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 280.75(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 265.00(Month Low) to 349.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, OU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OU should penetrate 265.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 231.70(Average Objective).
December Oats(CBOT): The OZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 352.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 281.00(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 269.00(Month Low) to 356.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, OZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OZ should penetrate 269.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 236.61(Average Objective).
September Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 15.36(Prev Close), the market ended May at 14.49(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 14.48(Month Low) to 16.14(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 14.48(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 13.13(Average Objective).
August Live Cattle(CME): The LCQ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 116.200(Prev Close), the market ended May at 118.900(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 115.200(Month Low) to 122.430(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LCQ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 122.430(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 129.739(Average Objective).
October Live Cattle(CME): The LCV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 121.150(Prev Close), the market ended May at 123.700(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 120.730(Month Low) to 127.050(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LCV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 127.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 133.187(Average Objective).
January Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 157.650(Prev Close), the market ended May at 160.530(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 157.250(Month Low) to 164.300(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, FCF went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should exceed 164.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 171.266(Average Objective).
October Lean Hogs(CME): The LEV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 80.400(Prev Close), the market ended May at 82.885(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 78.450(Month Low) to 83.135(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LEV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should exceed 83.135(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 90.349(Average Objective).
December Cocoa(ICE): The CCZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2243(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2104(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 2076(Month Low) to 2384(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, CCZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should penetrate 2076(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1933(Average Objective).
March Cocoa(ICE): The CCH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2248(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2119(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 2094(Month Low) to 2389(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, CCH went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should penetrate 2094(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 1951(Average Objective).
September Lumber(CME): The LBU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 289.5(Prev Close), the market ended May at 279.0(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 278.1(Month Low) to 295.3(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Lumber(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, LBU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBU should penetrate 278.1(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 246.7(Average Objective).
November Lumber(CME): The LBX2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 288.0(Prev Close), the market ended May at 275.5(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 275.0(Month Low) to 292.7(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Lumber(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, LBX went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBX should penetrate 275.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 250.6(Average Objective).
January Lumber(CME): The LBF3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 297.7(Prev Close), the market ended May at 283.7(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 283.2(Month Low) to 299.8(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Lumber(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LBF went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBF should penetrate 283.2(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 260.8(Average Objective).
December Cotton(ICE): The CTZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 86.96(Prev Close), the market ended May at 70.35(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 67.73(Month Low) to 87.18(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CTZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 67.73(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 63.18(Average Objective).
March Cotton(ICE): The CTH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 87.93(Prev Close), the market ended May at 72.42(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 69.37(Month Low) to 88.13(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CTH went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTH should penetrate 69.37(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 64.94(Average Objective).

Copyright © 2024 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
www.mrci.com	sales@mrci.com
Phone: 541-525-0521