Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Apr 30, 2012
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
USU2 Higher Apr 136~250 142~160 135~190 142~040 95% 34 15 14 93% 142~160 150~252 142~040
TYU2 Higher Apr 128~080 131~105 127~210 131~055 96% 29 13 12 92% 131~105 136~101 131~055
EDU2 Lower Apr 99.510 99.520 99.430 99.500 78% 30 12 12 100% 99.430 98.977 99.500
CDU2 Higher Apr 99.90 101.68 99.15 100.94 71% 35 22 19 86% 101.68 103.75 100.94
ADU2 Higher Apr 101.74 103.25 100.77 102.77 81% 25 18 16 89% 103.25 107.25 102.77
CLQ2 Higher Apr 104.40 106.87 102.29 105.55 71% 29 18 16 89% 106.87 115.73 105.55
CLU2 Higher Apr 104.66 107.16 102.66 105.71 68% 29 19 17 89% 107.16 115.09 105.71
NGQ2 Higher Apr 2.461 2.550 2.175 2.462 77% 21 12 11 92% 2.550 2.879 2.462
NGU2 Higher Apr 2.492 2.582 2.222 2.509 80% 21 13 12 92% 2.582 2.928 2.509
BOQ2 Lower Apr 55.70 57.98 54.98 55.23 8% 45 18 16 89% 54.98 50.71 55.23
CU2 Lower Apr 563.25 575.75 535.00 560.75 63% 45 28 25 89% 535.00 488.05 560.75
CZ2 Higher Apr 540.25 556.00 519.00 543.25 66% 45 20 18 90% 556.00 617.87 543.25
KWU2 Lower Apr 722.00 724.75 648.75 678.00 38% 35 19 16 84% 648.75 608.91 678.00
KWZ2 Lower Apr 742.00 744.50 670.50 701.25 42% 35 19 17 89% 670.50 633.61 701.25
LEN2 Lower Apr 91.650 94.885 86.150 86.250 1% 42 13 13 100% 86.150 79.345 86.250
LEQ2 Lower Apr 91.850 95.335 87.150 87.600 5% 42 12 12 100% 87.150 79.909 87.600
LEV2 Lower Apr 82.900 86.385 79.780 80.400 9% 42 14 13 93% 79.780 73.471 80.400
KCU2 Lower Apr 187.85 195.55 176.65 181.80 27% 38 19 16 84% 176.65 154.66 181.80
SBN2 Lower Apr 23.82 23.98 20.89 21.12 7% 45 26 22 85% 20.89 17.96 21.12
CTN2 Lower Apr 93.92 94.00 86.55 89.40 38% 45 19 16 84% 86.55 77.81 89.40

September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 136~250(Prev Close), the market ended April at 142~040(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 135~190(Month Low) to 142~160(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, USU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 142~160(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 150~252(Average Objective).

September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 128~080(Prev Close), the market ended April at 131~055(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 127~210(Month Low) to 131~105(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, TYU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 131~105(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 136~101(Average Objective).

September Eurodollars(CME)
The EDU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 99.510(Prev Close), the market ended April at 99.500(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 99.430(Month Low) to 99.520(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, EDU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 99.430(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 98.977(Average Objective).

September Canadian Dollar(CME)
The CDU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 99.90(Prev Close), the market ended April at 100.94(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 99.15(Month Low) to 101.68(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CDU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDU should exceed 101.68(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 103.75(Average Objective).

September Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 101.74(Prev Close), the market ended April at 102.77(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 100.77(Month Low) to 103.25(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, ADU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 103.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 107.25(Average Objective).

August Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLQ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 104.40(Prev Close), the market ended April at 105.55(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 102.29(Month Low) to 106.87(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CLQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLQ should exceed 106.87(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 115.73(Average Objective).

September Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 104.66(Prev Close), the market ended April at 105.71(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 102.66(Month Low) to 107.16(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLU should exceed 107.16(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 115.09(Average Objective).

August Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGQ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2.461(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2.462(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 2.175(Month Low) to 2.550(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 2.550(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.879(Average Objective).

September Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2.492(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2.509(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 2.222(Month Low) to 2.582(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 2.582(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2.928(Average Objective).

August Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOQ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 55.70(Prev Close), the market ended April at 55.23(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 54.98(Month Low) to 57.98(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, BOQ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should penetrate 54.98(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 50.71(Average Objective).

September Corn(CBOT)
The CU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 563.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 560.75(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 535.00(Month Low) to 575.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, CU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 535.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 488.05(Average Objective).

December Corn(CBOT)
The CZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 540.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 543.25(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 519.00(Month Low) to 556.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should exceed 556.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 617.87(Average Objective).

September Wheat(KCBT)
The KWU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 722.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 678.00(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 648.75(Month Low) to 724.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, KWU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 648.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 608.91(Average Objective).

December Wheat(KCBT)
The KWZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 742.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 701.25(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 670.50(Month Low) to 744.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, KWZ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWZ should penetrate 670.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 633.61(Average Objective).

July Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEN2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 91.650(Prev Close), the market ended April at 86.250(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 86.150(Month Low) to 94.885(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, LEN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEN should penetrate 86.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 79.345(Average Objective).

August Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEQ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 91.850(Prev Close), the market ended April at 87.600(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 87.150(Month Low) to 95.335(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, LEQ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEQ should penetrate 87.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 79.909(Average Objective).

October Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEV2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 82.900(Prev Close), the market ended April at 80.400(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 79.780(Month Low) to 86.385(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, LEV went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should penetrate 79.780(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 73.471(Average Objective).

September Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 187.85(Prev Close), the market ended April at 181.80(Month Close), that being 27%(Pct Range) off of 176.65(Month Low) to 195.55(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, KCU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 176.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 154.66(Average Objective).

July Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBN2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 23.82(Prev Close), the market ended April at 21.12(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 20.89(Month Low) to 23.98(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SBN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should penetrate 20.89(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 17.96(Average Objective).

July Cotton(ICE)
The CTN2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 93.92(Prev Close), the market ended April at 89.40(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 86.55(Month Low) to 94.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CTN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTN should penetrate 86.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 77.81(Average Objective).

Banner

Newsflash

An options trader can be right on price direction; but, if he buys high volatility or sells low volatility, he can still lose money.

MRCI volatility charts, updated daily and available to MRCI ONLINE subscribers, overlay current historical and implied volatility
levels onto a graph depicting "normal" levels and seasonal trends throughout the year.

MRCI's Implied Volatility Report, (as shown below) apprises options traders of whether and by how much volatility may be greater or lesser than average.

MRCI ONLINE subscribers & Free Trial Guests can automatically receive a copy of this report via email each night! Join this list!