MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

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Scenario^SM Summary Mar 31, 2012

Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt
Cond
Month Prev
Close Month
High Month
Low Month
Close Pct
Range Total
Years Cond
Years Action
Years
Pct Scenario
Objective Average
Objective Last
Price

#DJ Higher Mar 12952.00 13289.00 12735.00 13212.00 86% 45 30 26 87% 13289.00 14153.99 13212.00

#TRAN Higher Mar 5153.20 5390.10 5029.40 5253.20 62% 42 28 24 86% 5390.10 5873.23 5253.20

#UTIL Higher Mar 451.54 461.81 448.98 458.93 78% 42 22 20 91% 461.81 483.70 458.93

#RUT Higher Mar 810.95 847.90 785.40 830.30 72% 33 23 23 100% 847.90 897.67 830.30

#VLE Higher Mar 3000.50 3117.90 2908.60 3066.20 75% 29 21 20 95% 3117.90 3303.56 3066.20

#SSNI Higher Mar 9723 10255 9509 10084 77% 30 17 17 100% 10255 10885 10084

SPM2 Higher Mar 1358.60 1419.60 1333.60 1403.20 81% 29 19 16 84% 1419.60 1503.89 1403.20

JYM2 Lower Mar 123.32 124.20 118.89 120.78 36% 35 19 17 89% 118.89 115.22 120.78

DXM2 Higher Mar 79.130 81.160 78.870 79.138 12% 26 12 11 92% 81.160 84.030 79.138

HGN2 Lower Mar 388.90 395.10 372.50 383.35 48% 45 13 11 85% 372.50 353.45 383.35

HGU2 Lower Mar 389.85 395.20 374.20 384.25 48% 45 15 13 87% 374.20 353.01 384.25

HON2 Lower Mar 321.02 331.93 317.12 318.91 12% 32 8 7 88% 317.12 294.62 318.91

HOQ2 Lower Mar 321.59 332.95 318.08 319.81 12% 32 8 7 88% 318.08 296.72 319.81

RBN2 Higher Mar 318.47 332.18 317.01 319.47 16% 26 21 19 90% 332.18 366.27 319.47

NGN2 Lower Mar 2.852 2.837 2.356 2.389 7% 21 6 6 100% 2.356 2.136 2.389

NGQ2 Lower Mar 2.886 2.862 2.424 2.461 8% 21 6 6 100% 2.424 2.225 2.461

SX2 Higher Mar 1289.00 1370.00 1278.25 1358.00 87% 45 24 21 88% 1370.00 1450.74 1358.00

BON2 Higher Mar 54.87 56.21 53.30 55.51 76% 45 22 21 95% 56.21 61.99 55.51

BOQ2 Higher Mar 54.97 56.33 53.47 55.70 78% 45 25 22 88% 56.33 62.24 55.70

CU2 Lower Mar 600.75 609.25 543.50 563.25 30% 45 17 16 94% 543.50 508.68 563.25

CZ2 Lower Mar 568.50 575.00 523.00 540.25 33% 45 19 17 89% 523.00 490.78 540.25

ON2 Higher Mar 315.00 345.00 279.00 342.00 95% 37 14 12 86% 345.00 376.19 342.00

RRN2 Higher Mar 14.72 15.52 14.08 15.04 66% 22 9 8 89% 15.52 17.67 15.04

LCM2 Lower Mar 127.230 128.300 116.100 116.150 0% 45 20 17 85% 116.100 108.112 116.150

LCQ2 Lower Mar 129.680 130.450 119.500 119.680 2% 45 20 17 85% 119.500 113.187 119.680

JOU2 Lower Mar 177.10 180.50 158.00 159.65 7% 44 21 18 86% 158.00 146.36 159.65

KCN2 Lower Mar 206.00 207.60 177.30 185.00 25% 38 16 14 88% 177.30 163.06 185.00

CCN2 Lower Mar 2354 2443 2196 2246 20% 45 23 21 91% 2196 1929 2246

CCU2 Lower Mar 2367 2455 2213 2262 20% 45 22 19 86% 2213 1953 2262

LBN2 Lower Mar 289.6 295.7 263.7 263.8 0% 38 19 16 84% 263.7 238.9 263.8

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 12952.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 13212.00(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 12735.00(Month Low) to 13289.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in March than February in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #DJ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 13289.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 14153.99(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 5153.20(Prev Close), the market ended March at 5253.20(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 5029.40(Month Low) to 5390.10(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in March than February in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #TRAN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 5390.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 5873.23(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 451.54(Prev Close), the market ended March at 458.93(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 448.98(Month Low) to 461.81(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in March than February in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #UTIL went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 461.81(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 483.70(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 810.95(Prev Close), the market ended March at 830.30(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 785.40(Month Low) to 847.90(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in March than February in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #RUT went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 847.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 897.67(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 3000.50(Prev Close), the market ended March at 3066.20(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 2908.60(Month Low) to 3117.90(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #VLE went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 3117.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 3303.56(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 9723(Prev Close), the market ended March at 10084(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 9509(Month Low) to 10255(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in March than February in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #SSNI went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 10255(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 10885(Average Objective).
June S & P 500(CME): The SPM2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 1358.60(Prev Close), the market ended March at 1403.20(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 1333.60(Month Low) to 1419.60(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SPM went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should exceed 1419.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1503.89(Average Objective).
June Japanese Yen(CME): The JYM2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 123.32(Prev Close), the market ended March at 120.78(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 118.89(Month Low) to 124.20(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, JYM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYM should penetrate 118.89(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 115.22(Average Objective).
June US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXM2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 79.130(Prev Close), the market ended March at 79.138(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 78.870(Month Low) to 81.160(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in March than February in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, DXM went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should exceed 81.160(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 84.030(Average Objective).
July Copper(CMX): The HGN2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 388.90(Prev Close), the market ended March at 383.35(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 372.50(Month Low) to 395.10(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Copper(CMX) also closed lower in March than February in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, HGN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGN should penetrate 372.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 353.45(Average Objective).
September Copper(CMX): The HGU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 389.85(Prev Close), the market ended March at 384.25(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 374.20(Month Low) to 395.20(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Copper(CMX) also closed lower in March than February in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, HGU went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGU should penetrate 374.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 353.01(Average Objective).
July Heating Oil(NYM): The HON2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 321.02(Prev Close), the market ended March at 318.91(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 317.12(Month Low) to 331.93(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, HON went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HON should penetrate 317.12(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 294.62(Average Objective).
August Heating Oil(NYM): The HOQ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 321.59(Prev Close), the market ended March at 319.81(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 318.08(Month Low) to 332.95(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, HOQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOQ should penetrate 318.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 296.72(Average Objective).
July Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBN2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 318.47(Prev Close), the market ended March at 319.47(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 317.01(Month Low) to 332.18(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, RBN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBN should exceed 332.18(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 366.27(Average Objective).
July Natural Gas(NYM): The NGN2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 2.852(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2.389(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 2.356(Month Low) to 2.837(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 6(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 6, NGN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGN should penetrate 2.356(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 2.136(Average Objective).
August Natural Gas(NYM): The NGQ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 2.886(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2.461(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 2.424(Month Low) to 2.862(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 6(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 6, NGQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should penetrate 2.424(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 2.225(Average Objective).
November Soybeans(CBOT): The SX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 1289.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 1358.00(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 1278.25(Month Low) to 1370.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SX went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 1370.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1450.74(Average Objective).
July Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BON2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 54.87(Prev Close), the market ended March at 55.51(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 53.30(Month Low) to 56.21(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, BON went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BON should exceed 56.21(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 61.99(Average Objective).
August Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOQ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 54.97(Prev Close), the market ended March at 55.70(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 53.47(Month Low) to 56.33(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, BOQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should exceed 56.33(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 62.24(Average Objective).
September Corn(CBOT): The CU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 600.75(Prev Close), the market ended March at 563.25(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 543.50(Month Low) to 609.25(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CU went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 543.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 508.68(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 568.50(Prev Close), the market ended March at 540.25(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 523.00(Month Low) to 575.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CZ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 523.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 490.78(Average Objective).
July Oats(CBOT): The ON2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 315.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 342.00(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 279.00(Month Low) to 345.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, ON went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should exceed 345.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 376.19(Average Objective).
July Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRN2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 14.72(Prev Close), the market ended March at 15.04(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 14.08(Month Low) to 15.52(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, RRN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should exceed 15.52(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 17.67(Average Objective).
June Live Cattle(CME): The LCM2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 127.230(Prev Close), the market ended March at 116.150(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 116.100(Month Low) to 128.300(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LCM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should penetrate 116.100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 108.112(Average Objective).
August Live Cattle(CME): The LCQ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 129.680(Prev Close), the market ended March at 119.680(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 119.500(Month Low) to 130.450(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LCQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should penetrate 119.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 113.187(Average Objective).
September Orange Juice(ICE): The JOU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 177.10(Prev Close), the market ended March at 159.65(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 158.00(Month Low) to 180.50(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, JOU went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOU should penetrate 158.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 146.36(Average Objective).
July Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCN2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 206.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 185.00(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 177.30(Month Low) to 207.60(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, KCN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCN should penetrate 177.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 163.06(Average Objective).
July Cocoa(ICE): The CCN2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 2354(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2246(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 2196(Month Low) to 2443(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CCN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCN should penetrate 2196(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1929(Average Objective).
September Cocoa(ICE): The CCU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 2367(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2262(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 2213(Month Low) to 2455(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CCU went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCU should penetrate 2213(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1953(Average Objective).
July Lumber(CME): The LBN2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 289.6(Prev Close), the market ended March at 263.8(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 263.7(Month Low) to 295.7(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LBN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should penetrate 263.7(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 238.9(Average Objective).

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