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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Jul 31, 2011
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Lower Jul 12414.00 12754.00 12083.00 12143.00 9% 45 21 19 90% 12083.00 9700.94 12143.00
#TRAN Lower Jul 5423.80 5627.90 5086.50 5184.10 18% 41 21 20 95% 5086.50 3768.51 5184.10
#UTIL Lower Jul 433.48 442.01 426.27 431.17 31% 41 17 15 88% 426.27 375.56 431.17
#NDX Higher Jul 2325.10 2438.40 2318.20 2362.80 37% 25 13 12 92% 2438.40 2545.16 2362.80
#RUT Lower Jul 827.45 860.35 783.15 797.05 18% 32 16 15 94% 783.15 604.50 797.05
#MID Lower Jul 978.65 1013.35 928.45 943.40 18% 30 18 17 94% 928.45 729.59 943.40
#VLE Lower Jul 3018.40 3117.10 2862.80 2902.30 16% 28 13 11 85% 2862.80 2227.04 2902.30
#SP Lower Jul 1320.65 1356.50 1282.85 1292.30 13% 45 26 23 88% 1282.85 1021.98 1292.30
NDZ1 Higher Jul 2315.50 2428.00 2310.00 2354.00 37% 15 7 6 86% 2428.00 2568.66 2354.00
USZ1 Higher Jul 121~18 127~00 121~01 126~21 94% 33 18 18 100% 127~00 132~07 126~21
TYZ1 Higher Jul 120~265 124~175 120~115 124~120 96% 29 19 19 100% 124~175 128~101 124~120
SFZ1 Higher Jul 119.17 127.55 117.70 126.95 94% 36 15 14 93% 127.55 134.18 126.95
JYZ1 Higher Jul 124.43 130.30 122.50 129.96 96% 34 14 12 86% 130.30 136.12 129.96
ADZ1 Higher Jul 105.07 108.75 103.30 108.08 88% 23 11 11 100% 108.75 112.25 108.08
DXZ1 Lower Jul 75.105 77.420 73.980 74.455 14% 25 12 11 92% 73.980 71.774 74.455
PAZ1 Higher Jul 761.80 848.00 749.00 829.15 81% 33 19 16 84% 848.00 940.70 829.15
HOX1 Higher Jul 299.64 318.65 293.53 312.82 77% 32 19 16 84% 318.65 353.71 312.82
RBX1 Higher Jul 276.56 294.15 269.96 288.52 77% 26 17 15 88% 294.15 324.33 288.52
RBZ1 Higher Jul 275.25 292.43 268.76 286.91 77% 26 17 15 88% 292.43 318.99 286.91
NGZ1 Lower Jul 4.739 4.871 4.457 4.462 1% 21 10 9 90% 4.457 3.963 4.462
WZ1 Higher Jul 657.50 754.75 639.00 715.75 66% 45 23 20 87% 754.75 861.09 715.75
LCV1 Higher Jul 117.200 121.800 114.200 117.335 41% 45 28 25 89% 121.800 127.113 117.335
FCV1 Higher Jul 139.235 145.930 136.000 139.600 36% 39 25 21 84% 145.930 151.853 139.600
FCX1 Higher Jul 139.075 145.985 136.550 140.300 40% 39 25 22 88% 145.985 152.283 140.300
LEV1 Higher Jul 86.230 93.885 85.385 92.400 83% 41 23 21 91% 93.885 100.882 92.400
CTV1 Lower Jul 123.69 124.49 93.50 102.08 28% 45 24 23 96% 93.50 85.83 102.08
CTZ1 Lower Jul 118.59 119.89 93.20 101.77 32% 44 22 20 91% 93.20 86.03 101.77


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 12414.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 12143.00(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 12083.00(Month Low) to 12754.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed lower in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #DJ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should penetrate 12083.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 9700.94(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 5423.80(Prev Close), the market ended July at 5184.10(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 5086.50(Month Low) to 5627.90(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed lower in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #TRAN went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should penetrate 5086.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 3768.51(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 433.48(Prev Close), the market ended July at 431.17(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 426.27(Month Low) to 442.01(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed lower in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #UTIL went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should penetrate 426.27(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 375.56(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2325.10(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2362.80(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 2318.20(Month Low) to 2438.40(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, the #NDX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 2438.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2545.16(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 827.45(Prev Close), the market ended July at 797.05(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 783.15(Month Low) to 860.35(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed lower in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #RUT went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should penetrate 783.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 604.50(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 978.65(Prev Close), the market ended July at 943.40(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 928.45(Month Low) to 1013.35(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed lower in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #MID went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should penetrate 928.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 729.59(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3018.40(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2902.30(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 2862.80(Month Low) to 3117.10(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, the #VLE went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should penetrate 2862.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2227.04(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1320.65(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1292.30(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 1282.85(Month Low) to 1356.50(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed lower in July than June in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #SP went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should penetrate 1282.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 1021.98(Average Objective).

December NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2315.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2354.00(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 2310.00(Month Low) to 2428.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 15 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, NDZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDZ should exceed 2428.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 2568.66(Average Objective).

December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 121~18(Prev Close), the market ended July at 126~21(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 121~01(Month Low) to 127~00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, USZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 127~00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 132~07(Average Objective).

December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 120~265(Prev Close), the market ended July at 124~120(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 120~115(Month Low) to 124~175(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, TYZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 124~175(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 128~101(Average Objective).

December Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 119.17(Prev Close), the market ended July at 126.95(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 117.70(Month Low) to 127.55(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, SFZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFZ should exceed 127.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 134.18(Average Objective).

December Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 124.43(Prev Close), the market ended July at 129.96(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 122.50(Month Low) to 130.30(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Japanese Yen(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, JYZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYZ should exceed 130.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 136.12(Average Objective).

December Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 105.07(Prev Close), the market ended July at 108.08(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 103.30(Month Low) to 108.75(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, ADZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should exceed 108.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 112.25(Average Objective).

December US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 75.105(Prev Close), the market ended July at 74.455(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 73.980(Month Low) to 77.420(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, DXZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should penetrate 73.980(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 71.774(Average Objective).

December Palladium(NYMEX)
The PAZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 761.80(Prev Close), the market ended July at 829.15(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 749.00(Month Low) to 848.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, PAZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should exceed 848.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 940.70(Average Objective).

November Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOX1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 299.64(Prev Close), the market ended July at 312.82(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 293.53(Month Low) to 318.65(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HOX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOX should exceed 318.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 353.71(Average Objective).

November Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBX1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 276.56(Prev Close), the market ended July at 288.52(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 269.96(Month Low) to 294.15(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, RBX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBX should exceed 294.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 324.33(Average Objective).

December Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 275.25(Prev Close), the market ended July at 286.91(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 268.76(Month Low) to 292.43(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, RBZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBZ should exceed 292.43(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 318.99(Average Objective).

December Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 4.739(Prev Close), the market ended July at 4.462(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 4.457(Month Low) to 4.871(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 4.457(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 3.963(Average Objective).

December Wheat(CBOT)
The WZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 657.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 715.75(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 639.00(Month Low) to 754.75(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, WZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should exceed 754.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 861.09(Average Objective).

October Live Cattle(CME)
The LCV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 117.200(Prev Close), the market ended July at 117.335(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 114.200(Month Low) to 121.800(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LCV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 121.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 127.113(Average Objective).

October Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 139.235(Prev Close), the market ended July at 139.600(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 136.000(Month Low) to 145.930(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, FCV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCV should exceed 145.930(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 151.853(Average Objective).

November Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCX1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 139.075(Prev Close), the market ended July at 140.300(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 136.550(Month Low) to 145.985(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, FCX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should exceed 145.985(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 152.283(Average Objective).

October Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 86.230(Prev Close), the market ended July at 92.400(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 85.385(Month Low) to 93.885(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, LEV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should exceed 93.885(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 100.882(Average Objective).

October Cotton(ICE)
The CTV1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 123.69(Prev Close), the market ended July at 102.08(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 93.50(Month Low) to 124.49(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, CTV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should penetrate 93.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 85.83(Average Objective).

December Cotton(ICE)
The CTZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 118.59(Prev Close), the market ended July at 101.77(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 93.20(Month Low) to 119.89(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CTZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 93.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 86.03(Average Objective).