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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Jun 30, 2011
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#OEX Lower Jun 597.32 597.28 561.57 587.31 72% 1 1 1 100% 561.57   587.31
NDU1 Lower Jun 2368.00 2327.00 2174.80 2321.00 96% 14 7 6 86% 2174.80 2058.87 2321.00
SFU1 Higher Jun 117.28 120.91 117.01 119.07 53% 36 18 16 89% 120.91 127.42 119.07
ADU1 Higher Jun 105.13 106.46 102.81 106.26 95% 24 13 11 85% 106.46 110.13 106.26
DXU1 Lower Jun 75.165 76.590 73.880 74.635 28% 25 13 12 92% 73.880 71.226 74.635
HGU1 Higher Jun 419.65 428.75 402.40 428.25 98% 45 22 20 91% 428.75 468.72 428.25
HGZ1 Higher Jun 421.45 430.00 405.00 429.75 99% 44 22 21 95% 430.00 470.23 429.75
SU1 Lower Jun 1367.25 1406.50 1284.50 1295.50 9% 45 23 22 96% 1284.50 1170.10 1295.50
SX1 Lower Jun 1363.50 1405.25 1286.00 1294.00 7% 45 24 23 96% 1286.00 1175.43 1294.00
BOU1 Lower Jun 59.04 59.98 54.75 55.45 13% 45 25 23 92% 54.75 49.38 55.45
BOV1 Lower Jun 59.27 60.10 55.00 55.69 14% 45 26 24 92% 55.00 49.66 55.69
BOZ1 Lower Jun 59.72 60.70 55.48 56.15 13% 45 24 22 92% 55.48 50.16 56.15
SMU1 Lower Jun 354.90 370.00 330.20 333.50 8% 45 19 17 89% 330.20 300.78 333.50
SMV1 Lower Jun 349.90 366.30 329.50 330.50 3% 45 22 20 91% 329.50 299.11 330.50
SMZ1 Lower Jun 351.20 368.30 329.10 330.90 5% 45 23 20 87% 329.10 299.74 330.90
KWU1 Lower Jun 927.50 942.25 704.00 707.25 1% 35 22 19 86% 704.00 647.63 707.25
MWU1 Lower Jun 987.75 1006.75 789.50 795.00 3% 30 19 16 84% 789.50 719.63 795.00
LCV1 Higher Jun 111.085 119.800 108.100 117.200 78% 45 22 21 95% 119.800 127.177 117.200
LCZ1 Higher Jun 115.180 122.800 112.180 120.000 74% 45 23 21 91% 122.800 129.767 120.000
FCU1 Higher Jun 125.980 140.000 123.000 138.930 94% 39 23 21 91% 140.000 147.634 138.930
FCV1 Higher Jun 126.950 140.000 124.000 139.235 95% 39 22 21 95% 140.000 148.088 139.235
FCX1 Higher Jun 127.850 140.050 125.300 139.075 93% 39 23 22 96% 140.050 147.745 139.075
KCU1 Lower Jun 267.75 276.75 241.45 265.60 68% 37 29 26 90% 241.45 209.70 265.60
KCZ1 Lower Jun 271.95 281.60 245.80 269.00 65% 37 29 26 90% 245.80 216.14 269.00
SBV1 Higher Jun 22.99 27.30 22.21 26.34 81% 45 22 19 86% 27.30 30.83 26.34
CCZ1 Higher Jun 3040 3183 2900 3171 96% 45 22 19 86% 3183 3549 3171
LBU1 Lower Jun 269.0 273.0 227.6 259.0 69% 38 19 16 84% 227.6 199.4 259.0
CTV1 Lower Jun 146.94 151.04 122.24 123.69 5% 45 20 17 85% 122.24 110.58 123.69
CTZ1 Lower Jun 135.50 140.90 116.40 118.59 9% 44 20 17 85% 116.40 107.49 118.59


S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 597.32(Prev Close), the market ended June at 587.31(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 561.57(Month Low) to 597.28(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 1 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed lower in June than May in 1(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 1, the #OEX went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 1 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should penetrate 561.57(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.

September NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 2368.00(Prev Close), the market ended June at 2321.00(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 2174.80(Month Low) to 2327.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed lower in June than May in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, NDU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDU should penetrate 2174.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 2058.87(Average Objective).

September Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 117.28(Prev Close), the market ended June at 119.07(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 117.01(Month Low) to 120.91(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SFU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFU should exceed 120.91(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 127.42(Average Objective).

September Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 105.13(Prev Close), the market ended June at 106.26(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 102.81(Month Low) to 106.46(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, ADU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 106.46(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 110.13(Average Objective).

September US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 75.165(Prev Close), the market ended June at 74.635(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 73.880(Month Low) to 76.590(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, DXU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should penetrate 73.880(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 71.226(Average Objective).

September Copper(CMX)
The HGU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 419.65(Prev Close), the market ended June at 428.25(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 402.40(Month Low) to 428.75(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Copper(CMX) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, HGU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGU should exceed 428.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 468.72(Average Objective).

December Copper(CMX)
The HGZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 421.45(Prev Close), the market ended June at 429.75(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 405.00(Month Low) to 430.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Copper(CMX) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, HGZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGZ should exceed 430.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 470.23(Average Objective).

September Soybeans(CBOT)
The SU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 1367.25(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1295.50(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 1284.50(Month Low) to 1406.50(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SU should penetrate 1284.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1170.10(Average Objective).

November Soybeans(CBOT)
The SX1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 1363.50(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1294.00(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 1286.00(Month Low) to 1405.25(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SX went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should penetrate 1286.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 1175.43(Average Objective).

September Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 59.04(Prev Close), the market ended June at 55.45(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 54.75(Month Low) to 59.98(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, BOU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 54.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 49.38(Average Objective).

October Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOV1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 59.27(Prev Close), the market ended June at 55.69(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 55.00(Month Low) to 60.10(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, BOV went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOV should penetrate 55.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 49.66(Average Objective).

December Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 59.72(Prev Close), the market ended June at 56.15(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 55.48(Month Low) to 60.70(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, BOZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOZ should penetrate 55.48(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 50.16(Average Objective).

September Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 354.90(Prev Close), the market ended June at 333.50(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 330.20(Month Low) to 370.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SMU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMU should penetrate 330.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 300.78(Average Objective).

October Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMV1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 349.90(Prev Close), the market ended June at 330.50(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 329.50(Month Low) to 366.30(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMV went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMV should penetrate 329.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 299.11(Average Objective).

December Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 351.20(Prev Close), the market ended June at 330.90(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 329.10(Month Low) to 368.30(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SMZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should penetrate 329.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 299.74(Average Objective).

September Wheat(KCBT)
The KWU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 927.50(Prev Close), the market ended June at 707.25(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 704.00(Month Low) to 942.25(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KWU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 704.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 647.63(Average Objective).

September Wheat(MGE)
The MWU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 987.75(Prev Close), the market ended June at 795.00(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 789.50(Month Low) to 1006.75(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, MWU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWU should penetrate 789.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 719.63(Average Objective).

October Live Cattle(CME)
The LCV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 111.085(Prev Close), the market ended June at 117.200(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 108.100(Month Low) to 119.800(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LCV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 119.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 127.177(Average Objective).

December Live Cattle(CME)
The LCZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 115.180(Prev Close), the market ended June at 120.000(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 112.180(Month Low) to 122.800(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, LCZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 122.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 129.767(Average Objective).

September Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 125.980(Prev Close), the market ended June at 138.930(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 123.000(Month Low) to 140.000(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, FCU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCU should exceed 140.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 147.634(Average Objective).

October Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 126.950(Prev Close), the market ended June at 139.235(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 124.000(Month Low) to 140.000(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, FCV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCV should exceed 140.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 148.088(Average Objective).

November Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCX1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 127.850(Prev Close), the market ended June at 139.075(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 125.300(Month Low) to 140.050(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, FCX went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should exceed 140.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 147.745(Average Objective).

September Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 267.75(Prev Close), the market ended June at 265.60(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 241.45(Month Low) to 276.75(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, KCU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 241.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 209.70(Average Objective).

December Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 271.95(Prev Close), the market ended June at 269.00(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 245.80(Month Low) to 281.60(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, KCZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCZ should penetrate 245.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 216.14(Average Objective).

October Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 22.99(Prev Close), the market ended June at 26.34(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 22.21(Month Low) to 27.30(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SBV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should exceed 27.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 30.83(Average Objective).

December Cocoa(ICE)
The CCZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 3040(Prev Close), the market ended June at 3171(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 2900(Month Low) to 3183(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CCZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should exceed 3183(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 3549(Average Objective).

September Lumber(CME)
The LBU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 269.0(Prev Close), the market ended June at 259.0(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 227.6(Month Low) to 273.0(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Lumber(CME) also closed lower in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LBU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBU should penetrate 227.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 199.4(Average Objective).

October Cotton(ICE)
The CTV1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 146.94(Prev Close), the market ended June at 123.69(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 122.24(Month Low) to 151.04(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CTV went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should penetrate 122.24(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 110.58(Average Objective).

December Cotton(ICE)
The CTZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 135.50(Prev Close), the market ended June at 118.59(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 116.40(Month Low) to 140.90(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CTZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 116.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 107.49(Average Objective).