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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Oct 31, 2010
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Oct 10788.00 11240.00 10711.00 11118.00 77% 45 26 23 88% 11240.00 11841.53 11118.00
#TRAN Higher Oct 4522.30 4824.00 4417.90 4754.30 83% 40 27 24 89% 4824.00 5184.02 4754.30
#UTIL Higher Oct 398.23 413.75 397.06 404.86 47% 40 24 23 96% 413.75 433.69 404.86
#NDX Higher Oct 1998.00 2137.30 1963.70 2124.40 93% 24 15 14 93% 2137.30 2374.32 2124.40
#RUT Higher Oct 676.15 711.45 666.00 703.15 82% 31 16 14 88% Yes 767.92 703.15
#SP Higher Oct 1141.20 1196.15 1131.85 1183.25 80% 45 26 23 88% 1196.15 1263.98 1183.25
NDH1 Higher Oct 1992.80 2135.00 1964.00 2119.50 91% 14 9 8 89% 2135.00 2457.89 2119.50
TYH1 Higher Oct 125~145 127~020 124~105 125~160 43% 28 18 17 94% 127~020 130~082 125~160
ADH1 Higher Oct 94.75 98.20 93.60 96.33 59% 23 14 13 93% 98.20 101.97 96.33
HOG1 Lower Oct 231.26 238.10 224.57 227.76 24% 31 16 14 88% 224.57 194.85 227.76
HOH1 Lower Oct 231.29 238.00 224.63 228.18 27% 31 14 13 93% 224.63 195.46 228.18
SMH1 Higher Oct 311.20 344.30 291.40 340.20 92% 45 21 18 86% 344.30 370.93 340.20
SMK1 Higher Oct 312.10 345.30 292.80 339.30 89% 45 21 18 86% 345.30 370.68 339.30
LBH1 Higher Oct 266.5 295.0 253.5 293.4 96% 37 23 20 87% 295.0 320.3 293.4


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 10788.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 11118.00(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 10711.00(Month Low) to 11240.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 11240.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 11841.53(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 4522.30(Prev Close), the market ended October at 4754.30(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 4417.90(Month Low) to 4824.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in October than September in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #TRAN went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 4824.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 5184.02(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 398.23(Prev Close), the market ended October at 404.86(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 397.06(Month Low) to 413.75(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in October than September in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #UTIL went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 413.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 433.69(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1998.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2124.40(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 1963.70(Month Low) to 2137.30(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #NDX went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 2137.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2374.32(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 676.15(Prev Close), the market ended October at 703.15(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 666.00(Month Low) to 711.45(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #RUT went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 711.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 767.92(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1141.20(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1183.25(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 1131.85(Month Low) to 1196.15(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #SP went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1196.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 1263.98(Average Objective).

March NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDH1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1992.80(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2119.50(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 1964.00(Month Low) to 2135.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, NDH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDH should exceed 2135.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 2457.89(Average Objective).

March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYH1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 125~145(Prev Close), the market ended October at 125~160(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 124~105(Month Low) to 127~020(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, TYH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 127~020(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 130~082(Average Objective).

March Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADH1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 94.75(Prev Close), the market ended October at 96.33(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 93.60(Month Low) to 98.20(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, ADH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADH should exceed 98.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 101.97(Average Objective).

February Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOG1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 231.26(Prev Close), the market ended October at 227.76(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 224.57(Month Low) to 238.10(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, HOG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOG should penetrate 224.57(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 194.85(Average Objective).

March Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOH1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 231.29(Prev Close), the market ended October at 228.18(Month Close), that being 27%(Pct Range) off of 224.63(Month Low) to 238.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, HOH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 224.63(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 195.46(Average Objective).

March Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMH1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 311.20(Prev Close), the market ended October at 340.20(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 291.40(Month Low) to 344.30(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SMH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMH should exceed 344.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 370.93(Average Objective).

May Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 312.10(Prev Close), the market ended October at 339.30(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 292.80(Month Low) to 345.30(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SMK went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMK should exceed 345.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 370.68(Average Objective).

March Lumber(CME)
The LBH1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 266.5(Prev Close), the market ended October at 293.4(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 253.5(Month Low) to 295.0(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, LBH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 295.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 320.3(Average Objective).