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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Aug 31, 2010
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Lower Aug 10466.00 10720.00 9937.00 10015.00 10% 45 18 16 89% 9937.00 9280.93 10015.00
SPZ0 Lower Aug 1093.60 1121.80 1033.00 1043.30 12% 28 9 8 89% 1033.00 969.00 1043.30
USZ0 Higher Aug 127~10 135~19 126~07 135~01 94% 32 21 20 95% 135~19 141~02 135~01
TYZ0 Higher Aug 122~295 126~025 122~160 125~200 87% 28 20 19 95% 126~025 129~254 125~200
EDZ0 Higher Aug 99.555 99.645 99.500 99.585 59% 28 21 19 90% 99.645 100.269 99.585
EDH1 Higher Aug 99.490 99.590 99.440 99.525 57% 28 19 19 100% 99.590 100.217 99.525
SFZ0 Higher Aug 96.30 98.75 94.35 98.50 94% 35 18 16 89% 98.75 104.04 98.50
NGZ0 Lower Aug 5.259 5.336 4.300 4.492 19% 20 9 9 100% 4.300 3.812 4.492
NGF1 Lower Aug 5.390 5.468 4.467 4.654 19% 20 10 9 90% 4.467 4.012 4.654
LCZ0 Higher Aug 96.230 101.250 95.385 100.050 80% 45 21 18 86% 101.250 106.294 100.050
FCX0 Higher Aug 114.730 117.950 111.680 115.700 64% 38 21 19 90% 117.950 123.230 115.700
FCF1 Higher Aug 113.085 117.000 111.585 114.850 60% 33 17 16 94% 117.000 121.130 114.850
SBH1 Higher Aug 18.60 19.75 17.40 19.32 82% 45 19 18 95% 19.75 21.99 19.32
CTZ0 Higher Aug 78.76 87.71 78.16 86.20 84% 44 16 14 88% 87.71 94.64 86.20


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 10466.00(Prev Close), the market ended August at 10015.00(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 9937.00(Month Low) to 10720.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed lower in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #DJ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should penetrate 9937.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 9280.93(Average Objective).

December S & P 500(CME)
The SPZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1093.60(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1043.30(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 1033.00(Month Low) to 1121.80(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December S & P 500(CME) also closed lower in August than July in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, SPZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPZ should penetrate 1033.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 969.00(Average Objective).

December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USZ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 127~10(Prev Close), the market ended August at 135~01(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 126~07(Month Low) to 135~19(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, USZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 135~19(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 141~02(Average Objective).

December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYZ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 122~295(Prev Close), the market ended August at 125~200(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 122~160(Month Low) to 126~025(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, TYZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 126~025(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 129~254(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 99.555(Prev Close), the market ended August at 99.585(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 99.500(Month Low) to 99.645(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.645(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 100.269(Average Objective).

March Eurodollars(CME)
The EDH1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 99.490(Prev Close), the market ended August at 99.525(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 99.440(Month Low) to 99.590(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, EDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 99.590(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 100.217(Average Objective).

December Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFZ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 96.30(Prev Close), the market ended August at 98.50(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 94.35(Month Low) to 98.75(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SFZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFZ should exceed 98.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 104.04(Average Objective).

December Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 5.259(Prev Close), the market ended August at 4.492(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 4.300(Month Low) to 5.336(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, NGZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 4.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 3.812(Average Objective).

January Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGF1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 5.390(Prev Close), the market ended August at 4.654(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 4.467(Month Low) to 5.468(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGF went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 4.467(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 4.012(Average Objective).

December Live Cattle(CME)
The LCZ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 96.230(Prev Close), the market ended August at 100.050(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 95.385(Month Low) to 101.250(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LCZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 101.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 106.294(Average Objective).

November Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCX0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 114.730(Prev Close), the market ended August at 115.700(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 111.680(Month Low) to 117.950(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, FCX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should exceed 117.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 123.230(Average Objective).

January Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCF1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 113.085(Prev Close), the market ended August at 114.850(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 111.585(Month Low) to 117.000(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, FCF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should exceed 117.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 121.130(Average Objective).

March Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBH1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 18.60(Prev Close), the market ended August at 19.32(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 17.40(Month Low) to 19.75(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SBH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should exceed 19.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 21.99(Average Objective).

December Cotton(ICE)
The CTZ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 78.76(Prev Close), the market ended August at 86.20(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 78.16(Month Low) to 87.71(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CTZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should exceed 87.71(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 94.64(Average Objective).